NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:00 AM Kent State KENT 301 Buffalo BUFF 302 | +19.5 -19.5 | +22.5 -22.5 | +22.5-110 -21.5-110 | 31%68% | ||||
12:00 AM Toledo TOL 303 Akron AKR 304 | -10.5 +10.5 | -8 +8 | -8-109 +8-108 | 68%32% | ||||
12:30 AM Memphis MEM 311 Tulane TULN 312 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14 -14 | +13.5-103 -14-110 | 29%71% | ||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-104 -2.5-108 | 88%12% | |||||
5:00 PM Ball State BALL 315 Ohio OHIO 316 | +11.5 -11.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15-105 -14.5-105 | 50%50% | ||||
5:00 PM Navy NAVY 359 E. Carolina ECU 360 | +2.5 -2.5 | -1 +1 | -1-110 +1.5-110 | 33%67% | ||||
5:00 PM Minnesota MINN 321 Wisconsin WIS 322 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-110 | 33%67% | ||||
+18.5 -18.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-110 -20.5-105 | 60%40% | |||||
5:00 PM OK State OKST 319 Colorado COLO 320 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17 -17 | +17-110 -16.5-108 | 81%19% | ||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-112 -6-110 | 40%60% | |||||
8:30 PM Liberty LIB 329 Sam Houston SHSU 330 | -1 +1 | -3 +3 | -2.5-115 +3.5-118 | 57%43% | ||||
8:30 PM Texas St TXST 325 S. Alabama USA 326 | +1 -1 | -1 +1 | +0.5-113 +1-110 | 20%80% | ||||
+19.5 -19.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5-110 -26.5-105 | 84%16% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-120 -3-105 | 40%60% | |||||
12:30 AM GA Tech GT 335 Georgia UGA 336 | +20.5 -20.5 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5-110 -19.5-108 | 86%14% | ||||
12:30 AM Nebraska NEB 333 Iowa IOWA 334 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-107 -5.5-110 | 38%62% | ||||
1:00 AM Utah UTAH 337 UCF UCF 338 | +4.5 -4.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9-110 | 62%38% | ||||
5:00 PM Michigan MICH 379 Ohio State OSU 380 | +10 -10 | +21 -21 | +20.5+100 -20-112 | 68%32% | ||||
5:00 PM Tennessee TENN 361 Vanderbilt VAN 362 | -12.5 +12.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-105 +11.5-108 | 33%67% | ||||
5:00 PM S. Carolina SC 347 Clemson CLEM 348 | +7.5 -7.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-103 -2.5-110 | 43%57% | ||||
5:00 PM UTSA UTSA 341 Army ARMY 342 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7 -7 | +6.5-102 -7-110 | |||||
5:00 PM Illinois ILL 383 Northwestern NW 384 | -9 +9 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-105 +8.5-114 | 50%50% | ||||
5:00 PM UConn UCONN 363 UMass MASS 364 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10-112 +10.5-109 | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-106 | 14%86% | |||||
5:00 PM Louisiana UL 423 LA-Monroe ULM 424 | -10.5 +10.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-108 +9.5-109 | 67%33% | ||||
5:00 PM North Texas UNT 357 Temple TEM 358 | -9.5 +9.5 | -11 +11 | -11.5-106 +10.5-107 | |||||
5:00 PM Louisville LOU 415 Kentucky UK 416 | +1 -1 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-114 | 73%18% | ||||
5:00 PM Duke DUKE 377 Wake Forest WF 378 | -2.5 +2.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4-112 +4.5-108 | 78%22% | ||||
5:00 PM Kansas KU 409 Baylor BAY 410 | +3 -3 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-110 +2.5-113 | 71%29% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +7 -7 | +6.5-104 -7-110 | ||||||
7:00 PM Middle Tenn MTSU 387 FIU FIU 388 | +7 -7 | +9 -9 | +9-110 -8.5-112 | |||||
7:00 PM Southern Miss USM 403 Troy TROY 404 | +15.5 -15.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-110 -17.5-106 | |||||
7:00 PM S. Florida USF 397 Rice RICE 398 | -3.5 +3.5 | -5 +5 | -4.5-114 +5.5-112 | |||||
PK PK | +1 -1 | +1-110 +1.5-115 | ||||||
8:00 PM Pittsburgh PITT 349 Boston Col BC 350 | +3.5 -3.5 | +5 -5 | +4.5-104 -5-108 | 20%80% | ||||
-1 +1 | -4 +4 | -3.5-112 +4.5-113 | ||||||
8:30 PM Maryland UMD 429 Penn State PSU 430 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-108 -24.5-106 | 86%14% | ||||
8:30 PM Notre Dame ND 437 USC USC 438 | -3.5 +3.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-102 +7.5-109 | 85%15% | ||||
8:30 PM Auburn AUB 419 Alabama BAMA 420 | +14 -14 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-109 | 45%55% | ||||
8:30 PM Miami (FL) MIA 365 Syracuse SYR 366 | -9.5 +9.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-110 +10.5-105 | 38%62% | ||||
8:30 PM California CAL 411 SMU SMU 412 | +9 -9 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-110 -12.5-107 | |||||
8:30 PM Arizona St ASU 389 Arizona ARI 390 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-107 +8.5-106 | 83%17% | ||||
8:30 PM Arkansas ARK 417 Missouri MIZ 418 | +3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-104 -3.5-110 | 20%60% | ||||
8:30 PM UAB UAB 373 Charlotte CHA 374 | +4.5 -4.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-113 -3-110 | |||||
8:30 PM Rutgers RUT 385 Michigan St MSU 386 | -1 +1 | +2 -2 | +2.5-114 -1.5-110 | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-105 -12.5-110 | ||||||
8:30 PM FL Atlantic FAU 407 Tulsa TLSA 408 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-108 +2.5-115 | |||||
8:30 PM NC State NCST 351 UNC UNC 352 | -3.5 +3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | |||||
8:30 PM Fresno State FRES 395 UCLA UCLA 396 | +12.5 -12.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-106 -9.5-110 | |||||
9:00 PM UTEP UTEP 431 N. Mexico St NMSU 432 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3 -3 | +3-110 -2.5-113 | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-105 -1.5-110 | ||||||
9:00 PM Kennesaw St KENN 433 LA Tech LT 434 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12-108 -12.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM TCU TCU 343 Cincinnati CIN 344 | -1.5 +1.5 | -3 +3 | -2.5-110 +3-110 | |||||
11:00 PM App State APP 375 GA Southern GASO 376 | +3 -3 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM Wyoming WYO 435 Washington St WSU 436 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17 -17 | +17-108 -17.5-107 | |||||
12:00 AM Purdue PUR 427 Indiana IU 428 | +25.5 -25.5 | +29 -29 | +28.5-104 -29-110 | 14%86% | ||||
12:00 AM Oklahoma OU 405 LSU LSU 406 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-115 -5.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM Florida FLA 353 Florida St FSU 354 | +11.5 -11.5 | -15 +15 | -15-108 +14.5-105 | 90%10% | ||||
12:30 AM Washington WASH 425 Oregon ORE 426 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5-110 -19.5-104 | 75%25% | ||||
12:30 AM Texas TEX 413 Texas A&M TA&M 414 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-105 +5.5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
12:30 AM K State KSU 421 Iowa State ISU 422 | PK PK | +3 -3 | +3-110 -2.5-113 | |||||
1:00 AM Nevada NEV 439 UNLV UNLV 440 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18.5-108 -17.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM Marshall MRSH 371 JMU JMU 372 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-108 -3.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM Virginia UVA 367 VA Tech VT 368 | +7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-103 | |||||
3:15 AM Houston HOU 391 BYU BYU 392 | +11 -11 | +13 -13 | +12.5-105 -12.5-108 | 78%22% | ||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-107 +4-110 | ||||||
4:00 AM New Mexico UNM 441 Hawaii HAW 442 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-115 +2.5-105 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.