NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:00 PM  UNC UNC 305  TCU TCU 306 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-107 -6.5-110 | |||||
7:00 PM  San Jose St SJSU 313  USC USC 314 | +35.5 -35.5 | +35.5 -35.5 | +35.5-110 -35.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  NC State NCST 317  Virginia UVA 318 | +3.5 -3.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -4.5-112 | |||||
9:30 PM  Jax State JVST 319  ND State NDSU 320 | +10 -10 | +10 -10 | +9.5-105 +10-107 | |||||
10:30 PM  Sac State SAC 309  E. Michigan EMU 310 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8 -8 | +8.5-110 -7.5-115 | |||||
11:00 PM  N. Mexico St NMSU 307  Florida St FSU 308 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-110 -29.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  Hawaii HAW 311  Stanford STAN 312 | +3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  Memphis MEM 315  UNLV UNLV 316 | +3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-108 -3-115 | |||||
10:00 PM  UMass MASS  Rutgers RUT | +30.5 -30.5 | +30.5 -30.5 | +30.5-110 -30.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Akron AKR  Wake Forest WF | +22.5 -22.5 | +22.5 -22.5 | +22.5-110 -22.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  West Georgia UWGA  Kennesaw St KENN | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  B-Cookman BCU  UCF UCF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Albany ALB  Buffalo BUFF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Merrimack MC  Delaware DEL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Colorado COLO 145  GA Tech GT 146 | +7 -7 | +7 -7 | +7-110 -7.5-102 | |||||
12:00 AM  E. Illinois EIL  Minnesota MINN | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  AR-Pine Bluff APB  Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Idaho IDHO  Utah UTAH | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  UAB UAB 193  Illinois ILL 194 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5-105 -27.5-108 | |||||
10:30 PM San Jose St SJSU 147 E. Michigan EMU 148 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-108 -3.5-106 | |||||
11:00 PM  NC A&T NCAT  Georgia State GAST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Indiana St INST  Purdue PUR | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Long Island LIU  Kansas KU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Toledo TOL 149  Michigan St MSU 150 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +11.5-115 -10.5-105 | |||||
1:00 AM  Miami (FL) MIA 153 Stanford STAN 154 | -21.5 +21.5 | -21.5 +21.5 | -21.5-105 +21.5-109 | |||||
1:00 AM  Fresno State FRES 151 USC USC 152 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-105 -23.5-102 | |||||
+17.5 -17.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -17.5-105 | ||||||
4:00 PM  Bryant U BRY  Army ARMY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  E. Carolina ECU 181  Alabama BAMA 182 | +25.5 -25.5 | +25.5 -25.5 | +26.5-106 -25.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  North Texas UNT 177  Indiana IU 178 | +40.5 -40.5 | +40.5 -40.5 | +39.5-105 -40.5-107 | |||||
4:00 PM  Oregon St ORST 211  Houston HOU 212 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM  UTEP UTEP 187  Oklahoma OU 188 | +40.5 -40.5 | +40.5 -40.5 | +39.5-105 -40.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Ohio OHIO 185  Nebraska NEB 186 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -23.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Tarleton TAR  Bowling Green BGSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Liberty LIB 161  JMU JMU 162 | +6 -6 | +6 -6 | +6.5-104 -6-110 | |||||
+16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -14.5-110 | ||||||
4:00 PM  UNH NH  Syracuse SYR | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Lafayette LAF  UConn UCONN | N/A N/A | |||||||
+49.5 -49.5 | +50.5 -50.5 | +50.5-110 -50.5-105 | ||||||
4:45 PM  Kent State KENT  S. Carolina SC | +33.5 -33.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5-108 -34.5-110 | |||||
5:00 PM  Duquesne DUQ  Air Force AFA | N/A N/A | |||||||
5:00 PM  Youngstown St YSU  Kentucky UK | N/A N/A | |||||||
5:00 PM  SE Missouri SEM  Iowa State ISU | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM  Rhode Island URI  Temple TEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:00 PM  TN State TNST  Georgia UGA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Baylor BAY 209  Auburn AUB 210 | +6.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -6.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Boston Col BC 157  Cincinnati CIN 158 | +9.5 -9.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -7.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Fordham FOR ND State NDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM Rio Grande Valley UTRGV  UTSA UTSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Towson TOW  Navy NAVY | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Citadel CIT  Charlotte CHA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Marshall MRSH 163  Penn State PSU 164 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -23.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Maine ME  App State APP | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Furman FUR  Tennessee TENN | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Texas St TXST 189  Texas TEX 190 | +30.5 -30.5 | +31.5 -31.5 | +31.5-110 -31.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Boise State BOISE 207  Oregon ORE 208 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-108 -24.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Tulane TULN 167  Duke DUKE 168 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5-105 -8.5-112 | |||||
7:45 PM  OK State OKST 179  Tulsa TLSA 180 | -11.5 +11.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-105 +13.5-115 | |||||
8:15 PM  N Alabama UNA  Arkansas ARK | +40.5 -40.5 | +40.5 -40.5 | +40.5-110 -40.5-110 | |||||
8:15 PM  N. Illinois NIU 195  Iowa IOWA 196 | +29.5 -29.5 | +29.5 -29.5 | +29.5-108 -30.5-104 | |||||
N/A N/A | ||||||||
10:00 PM  Wyoming WYO 199  Colorado St CSU 200 | +4 -4 | +4 -4 | +4-110 -3.5-115 | |||||
10:00 PM  Norfolk State NORF  Old Dominion ODU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Ab Christian ACU  Texas Tech TTU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Sam Houston SHSU 213  Troy TROY 214 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-109 -17.5-108 | |||||
11:00 PM  Arkansas St ARST 215 Memphis MEM 216 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-108 | |||||
11:00 PM  Houston Christian HB  Rice RICE | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Charleston So CCH  GA Southern GASO | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Missouri St MOST 191  Texas A&M TA&M 192 | +38.5 -38.5 | +38.5 -38.5 | +39.5-110 -38.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Austin Peay APSU  Vanderbilt VAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  E. Kentucky EKU Jax State JVST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Idaho State IDS  Utah State USU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  FIU FIU 171  S. Florida USF 172 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Nicholls St NIC  K State KSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Murray State MUR  Middle Tenn MTSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  SE Louisiana SEL  S. Alabama USA | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  Clemson CLEM 219  LSU LSU 220 | +11 -11 | +11.5 -11.5 | +12-109 -11.5-106 | |||||
11:30 PM  W. Michigan WMU 165  Michigan MICH 166 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26 -26 | +26.5-110 -25.5-112 | |||||
11:30 PM  LA-Monroe ULM 183  Mississippi St MSST 184 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-108 -28.5-105 | |||||
11:30 PM  NW State NWS  LA Tech LT | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  VMI VMI  VA Tech VT | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:45 PM  FL Atlantic FAU 175  Florida FLA 176 | +26 -26 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26-110 -26.5-104 | |||||
12:00 AM  Utah Tech UTU  BYU BYU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Lamar LAM  Louisiana UL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Hampton HAMP  Maryland UMD | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  SD State SDKSU  Northwestern NW | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Mercyhurst MHU N. Mexico St NMSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
N/A N/A | ||||||||
1:30 AM  N. Arizona NAZ  Arizona ARI | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM UNLV UNLV 217 Hawaii HAW 218 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5+100 | |||||
2:00 AM  MS Valley St MVS Sac State SAC | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM  C. Michigan CMU  New Mexico UNM | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -12.5-108 | |||||
2:00 AM  Morgan State MGN  Arizona St ASU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:30 AM  UCLA UCLA 203  California CAL 204 | +3.5 -3.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1.5+100 | |||||
2:30 AM  W. Kentucky WKU 205  Nevada NEV 206 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-106 +3.5-105 | |||||
+21.5 -21.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5-110 -21.5-105 | ||||||
11:30 PM  Louisville LOU 229  Ole Miss MISS 230 | +7.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-108 -6.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Wisconsin WIS 227  Notre Dame ND 228 | +17.5 -17.5 | +19.5 -20.5 | +20.5-109 -19.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  SMU SMU 231 Florida St FSU 232 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-112 +2.5-108 |
NCAAF Projections for 2025-26: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under Insights
Welcome to your one-stop source for the latest ncaaf projections for the 2025-26 college football season. Our expert projections cover spreads, moneylines, and totals, blended with advanced modeling and betting market signals to help you find edges and value before kickoff.
What Are NCAAF Projections?
“NCAAF projections” refer to forecasted odds (spreads, moneylines, over/unders) for every college football matchup — built by synthesizing statistical models, expert handicapping, and live betting market data. These projections estimate what sportsbooks “should” be offering, which then allows bettors to detect value when public or consensus lines deviate.
How We Build Projections for 2025-26
To generate our NCAAF projections this season, we combine:
- Power ratings and advanced metrics: Reviewing offense, defense, special teams, tempo, efficiency, recruiting impact, roster turnover from 2024 to 2025.
- Team news and injuries: Especially at key positions like quarterback. A QB injury or change in coaching staff triggers re-evaluation.
- Home-field advantage and rest/back-to-back weeks: Travel, bye weeks, and short weeks matter.
- Historical performance and trend analysis: How teams performed in similar matchups, under similar conditions.
- Live betting market data: consensus lines, sportsbooks’ odds, public betting percentages. Our models aim to spot “edges” when our projections differ meaningfully from current market lines.
What You’ll See in Our NCAAF Projections
For each game, we provide:
- Spread projection: Predicted margin between the two teams (how many points one is favored by).
- Moneyline projection: Odds for each team to win outright.
- Over/Under (Total): Predicted combined points scored by both teams.
- Edge: The difference (as a percentage) between our projection and the consensus/sportsbook line — this helps identify betting value.
- Grade: A letter grade (A-F) reflecting the strength of that edge; helps you quickly see which games to focus on.
Why 2025-26 Is Different
This season brings unique variables that are influencing NCAAF projections more than usual:
- The continued evolution of transfer portal usage means more roster turnover; projections now need to put greater weight on how well teams integrate new starters.
- Rule changes & officiating emphasis (passing/interference, targeting, etc.) that affect scoring trends and how defenses adjust.
- More parity in some conferences – there are fewer “guaranteed wins,” so projections are tighter and spread predictions often smaller.
- Increased data availability: wearable data, player usage, fatigue metrics are increasingly incorporated into projection models.
How to Use Projections in Betting
- Spot the edge: Compare our 2025-26 projections vs current sportsbook lines. An edge of +3.5% or higher often starts to look compelling.
- Respect key numbers: A spread of 6.5 vs. 7, or a total of 49.5 vs. 50.5, can matter significantly because of scoring patterns in football.
- Monitor news up to game day: Last-minute injuries or weather shifts can swing spreads or totals and affect value.
- Diversify bets: Don’t just pick spreads — sometimes moneylines or overs/unders offer better return, depending on matchups.
- Use power ratings: Our projections derive from power ratings that update weekly, reflecting latest performance, rest, injuries, momentum. Use these to compare teams even before lines drop.
Example: Sample Projections
Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also vital for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.
Projections vs. Public Sentiment
Sometimes what our projections say diverges from what the public is betting. These misalignments can signal value:
- When public heavily backs the favorite, but our model’s projected spread is smaller.
- When underdogs get little attention but our model suggests they win outright with reasonable probability.
- When totals are inflated by marquee names or high-profile games, but underlying defense/offense metrics suggest lower scoring.
Stay Current: Weekly Updates & Trends
- Projections are refreshed weekly, especially when new stats, injuries, or reports come in.
- We track which teams are trending up or down — momentum matters.
- Bet monitoring: watch how sharp bettors are leaning, and where public money is going. These can influence line movement, sometimes creating last-minute value.
Final Word
If you're serious about getting an edge in college football betting, these NCAAF projections are essential. They don't predict upsets or guarantee wins — but they give you a probabilistic foundation to make smarter bets. Use them to find mismatches, exploit line inefficiencies, and avoid getting caught up in hype.
Updated for the 2025-26 season, our projections reflect the realities of roster shifts, scoring trends, and a tighter market. Bookmark this page, check it weekly, and let the numbers guide you.
