2018 Las Vegas Bowl Betting Odds: Arizona State-Fresno State
- Odds: Fresno State -5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
Herm Edwards is looking to cap a surprisingly successful first year in Tempe with a bowl victory, but he'll have to go through Fresno State.
The Bulldogs have proven themselves as a truly elite Group of 5 team after winning the Mountain West title on the road at Boise State to end the year. Fresno State ranks 33rd in our power ratings (tied for the top G5 spot) and No. 10 in S&P+. It has an excellent quarterback in Marcus McMaryion, who ranks 12th nationally in yards per pass attempt.
Since 2006, the Mountain West has sent its winner to the Las Vegas Bowl to play the Pac-12's sixth-best team, which has created the narrative that Fresno State should care a lot more. But that hasn't led to any motivational problems for either conference — the Mountain West is 6-6 against the spread in this game since 2005.
Will Arizona State's talent edge and body of work against a tough schedule win out, or does Fresno deserve the credit its getting in the market? Let's dive in.
Odds Movement for 2018 Las Vegas Bowl
By Danny Donahue
As of Wednesday afternoon, this game is on pace to see more bets than any other bowl on Saturday. Of those bets, 64% are playing the favorite, which have accounted for 68% of the money wagered. That support has brought Fresno from -3.5 to as high as -5 around the market.
Early betting action on the total brought the number down from 52.5 to 51.5, but by Tuesday, it had shot back up to 52.5, where it sits now. Fifty-five percent of bettors have taken the under and they’ve accounted for 64% of money wagered.
Key Trend: Fresno Defense Stood Tall on the Road
By Evan Abrams
One of the biggest keys to this game will be Fresno State's defense, which has allowed just 13.7 points per game this season, tied for the second-lowest mark in the country with Clemson. This season, Fresno State has played seven games away from home and the under is 6-1 in those games, going under the total by 13.6 points per game.
When Fresno is on the road, none of its opponents have scored more than 24 points, with five of the seven scoring fewer than 20 points.
Arizona State Missing Top Target
By Steve Petrella
Arizona State will be without star receiver N’Keal Harry as he prepares for the NFL Draft. That could be a problem against Fresno State’s excellent pass defense. The Bulldogs rank 13th in passing S&P+ defense and 18th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Mismatch: Fresno Secondary vs. ASU Passing Attack
By Stuckey
Steve already mentioned how the loss of Harry will hurt Arizona State’s passing attack against a very stout Fresno pass defense. (His absence will also hurt in the return game).
That pain will especially be felt on third downs against a Fresno defense that ranks in the top 25 in third-down conversion rate (.33). While ASU’s offense ranked a respectable 49th on third downs (.414), Harry was by far Manny Wilkins’ favorite target when the ASU quarterback looked to extend drives.
Harry had 46 of his 73 receptions go for first downs this season. To put that into perspective, without Harry, the Sun Devils won’t have a receiver suit up who had more than 40 total catches on the season.
Sun Devils Played Tight Games
By Stuckey
Arizona State finished 7-5, but the Sun Devils were in almost every game this season. Their five losses (at Washington, at San Diego State, Stanford, at Colorado, at Oregon) came by a combined 30 points, all within one possession, with four on the road.
By Steve Petrella
It's insane how close Arizona State games were this season. Nine of its 12 finished by a margin of seven points or fewer. The last three games were decided by a total of six points.
The Sun Devils fared much better as an underdog, too. They were 5-2 against the spread when getting points and 2-3 as a favorite.
Who's More Motivated?
By Stuckey
I think you have to give a slight edge to Fresno in the motivation department. The Bulldogs are seeking their first ever 12-win season and should want to cap off this great year with a win over a Power 5 team.
Meanwhile, even though some of the Arizona State seniors may be motivated by two bowl losses in the past two seasons, head coach Herm Edwards has hinted that he would rather use this as a development opportunity for his very young team.
While a bunch of freshmen already play on the ASU defense, expect to see a few freshmen get some playing time at some of the skill positions on offense — even potentially at quarterback.
“We’re going forward for setting the schedule for the spring and watching some guys that maybe didn’t get a lot of reps on both sides of the ball, putting them in a position where they can play the game," Edwards said. "It’s going to be kind of interesting.”
Also, remember that this is Las Vegas, which has no shortage of distractions. I think the very young Sun Devils are at a much higher risk for lacking focus ahead of this bowl, especially since Fresno has already traveled to Vegas this year for a game against UNLV. The Bulldogs won that with ease, 48-3.
Bet to Watch
By Stuckey
Not only do I think Fresno will have more motivation to win and have more familiarity with Las Vegas, it will also recognize Arizona State's unique 3-3-5 defense, which can really stump opposing offenses when seeing that scheme for the first time.
Arizona State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales is a disciple of San Diego State coach Rocky Long, and ASU runs a 3-3-5 defense that is very similar to SDSU's, which Fresno State sees each year in conference play. The blitzes won’t catch them off guard as they do most other teams (it helps to have an offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in Adjusted Sack Rate).
Look for Fresno quarterback Marcus McMaryion to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona State defense with some deep shots to stud receivers KeeSean Johnson and Jamire Jordan — much like Fresno did in wins over SDSU the past two seasons. This is a very vulnerable ASU defense on the back end, as evidenced by its rank of 89th in Passing S&P+.
And on the other side of the ball, ASU will have to rely on third-team AP All-American running back back Enjo Benjamin and a veteran offensive line. However, the Fresno defense excels at stopping the run, thanks to a superb defensive front. The Bulldogs allow a stingy 3.6 yards per carry and rank No. 5 overall in Rushing S&P+ defense.
I know Arizona State has found ways to hang around all year, but four of their five losses have come by seven points, which is where I think this line should be.
Stuckey's Pick: I like Fresno State and the under.
A Case for the Under
By Steve Petrella
I think the total is right, but based on each team's profile, I'd lean under.
ASU plays a bend-don't-break defense that really limits total possessions in a game. The Sun Devils rank bottom 25 in both offensive drives and opponent's drives per game. That's in part because ASU gives up chunk yardage (104th in efficiency), but limits big plays (27th in explosiveness).
ASU is sixth nationally in opponent's plays per drive at 5.85 — it forces teams to march down the field methodically and drain the clock. Expect Fresno State to move the ball, but not all at once. The Bulldogs are 100th in plays per minute.
On the other side, Fresno's defense is elite in pretty much every way — top 11 in efficiency, explosiveness, finishing drives and average field position. Without Harry, like we've mentioned, the Bulldogs should limit ASU in a lot of ways.
