2019 SEC Championship Odds & Picks, LSU vs. Georgia
- Odds: LSU -7
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Time: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Atlanta, Ga.
Could there be too more opposite teams from a matchup perspective in this year's SEC Championship Game?
Nope. And that's what could make it so fun.
The high-flying LSU offense led by Heisman favorite Joe Burrow takes on Georgia and its stingy defense at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon.
LSU seems like a lock for the College Football Playoff no matter the result Saturday, while Georgia will likely clinch a spot with a victory.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
LSU vs. Georgia Line Movement
There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement on this spread since it opened, at least for books that waited out the earliest release.
By Sunday evening, the consensus spread was up to -7, and while it’s seen both sides of that number since, they lasted only briefly. Even giving a full touchdown, LSU has been the overwhelmingly more popular bet, drawing 72% of bets and 73% of money. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: The Two Best Units in College Football?
The focus of this game should be on two of the best units in college football — LSU's offense and Georgia's defense.
The Bulldogs will pose the stiffest test to LSU’s offense this entire season. Georgia will limit the Tigers in rushing success and pass explosiveness with multiple looks to confuse Burrow.
The Bulldogs are also first in the nation in defensive finishing drives, allowing just 3.55 points to opponents visiting the red zone. Georgia is top 10 in opponent third-down conversions, passing touchdowns and yards per play. — Collin Wilson
The Other Side of the Ball Is Where LSU-Georgia Will Be Decided
While one side of the ball is strength on strength, the other is weakness on weakness, at least relatively.
But LSU has regrouped on defense, holding Arkansas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss to just 13 total points in the first half.
The Tigers are top 20 in success rate defensively, complimented by a rank of 14th in defensive havoc and 19th in opponent red zone scoring.
The renewed interest in defense could be an issue for a Georgia offense that may be without its top skill position players. — Collin Wilson
Can Georgia Do Anything on Offense?
Wide receiver Lawrence Cager, Georgia’s leader in receptions and yards, is doubtful for the remainder of the season after surgery. George Pickens, the Bulldogs second leading receiver, is suspended for the first half after an unsportsmanlike penalty for fighting with Georgia Tech.
To compound those issues, Fromm’s favorite target out of the backfield has an ailing shoulder injury. D’Andre Swift suffered injury and was described by Kirby Smart as ‘banged up’ heading into the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia has been methodically slow in its offensive game plans this season. Conservative play calling and lack of explosiveness are the primary reasons the Bulldogs consistently find themselves in passing downs.
Georgia’s lack of targets combined with LSU’s recent form on defense will have my dollar on a first half under.
This will be a chess match between LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady and Kirby Smart. It may take several drives before Joe Burrow and Clyde Edwards-Helaire find an offensive rhythm. In marquee games against Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Texas, the Bengal Tigers scored a combined 20 points in the first quarter.
Kirby Smart has also been money in second halves since his arrival in Athens and the 2019 season has been no different. The only Division I team to score more points than Georgia in the third quarter this season is Murray State. — Collin Wilson
Collin's Pick: First Half Under 27.5 [In NJ, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Collin Wilson is 482-404-23 (54.4%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
Stuckey: Why I Like the Under
I agree with Collin here with the under, which I split between the game and first half.
This Georgia defense is just so solid in every facet and arguably the most efficient in all of college football. The Dawgs make you earn every yard and don’t allow any explosive plays.
They also lock down in the red zone. One of the criticisms of the defense is they don’t create enough takeaways or havoc, which is fair, but could also work in favor of the under. The Bulldogs have one of the best secondaries in college football and are capable of matching up with LSU’s electric passing attack.
Speaking of lack of big plays, the Georgia offense has been unspectacular all season long, as the Dawgs are completely lacking explosiveness on that side of the ball. And while this LSU defense has shown some holes this season, it’s mainly come against explosive offenses.
I think the Tigers also can take a lot from their dominant defensive effort last week against Texas A&M and carry that momentum into Atlanta.
The Georgia offense has struggled even more when Cager isn’t on the field and the star wideout will not play this week. With him out of the mix and George Pickens suspended for the first half, Georgia will be without its top two receivers on the season.
That leaves Dominick Blaylock as the receiver with the most receiving yards on the season and he hasn’t even reached 300 yet. LSU can focus on taking away the run here without having to worry too much about Georgia hitting anything big downfield.
I think you see Georgia go to an even heavier ball control offense and play even slower than normal in order to keep the LSU offense off of the field.
In regards to the side, I think there is a tad bit of value on Georgia at +7 or more in a game they’ve been waiting for since last season’s SEC championship loss.
I will likely only play it pregame small as I will be looking to add to Georgia on the second half line when Pickens returns and Kirby can make some halftime adjustments.
Regardless, I think the best play is the under here. This Georgia defense is real and can provide a test for LSU’s offense while the LSU defense is more than capable of slowing down a very pedestrian and undermanned Georgia offense that has struggled to get to 24 points against any defense with a pulse this season. — Stuckey
Stuckey's Picks: 1H Under 27.5, Full Game Under 55.5 [In NJ, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Stuckey is 519-478-29 (52.1%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
