And then there was (forty) one. Yep, only 41 bowls this season instead of 42.
That’s because last week I broke the news the Redbox Bowl in San Francisco was canceled, reducing the number of bowls to 41 this season and the number of bowl teams needed to 82. Hey, even Wikipedia recognized my reporting of the Redbox Bowl news.
The Redbox Bowl was supposed to feature teams from the Big Ten and Pac-12, so this is where it gets tricky.
All 41 bowl games already have contractual agreements with specific conferences, so if there are 82 bowl-eligible teams in December, one of two things will happen, sources said.
- Either the Big Ten and Pac-12 will bump two smaller Group of Five teams from their contracted bowls
- Or the Big Ten and Pac-12 will end up with one fewer bowl tie-in than they began the season with.
So, what happens? It’s too early to predict (money talks) if the Big Ten and Pac-12 (money talks) will each add an additional bowl bid (money talks) to replace the Redbox, but this will get settled (money talks) sometime before December.
Onto this week’s bowl projections. If you hated my bowl projections last week, boy are you in luck this week because there are wholesale changes — especially in the New Year’s Six bowls after the huge upset wins by Oregon over Ohio State and Iowa over Iowa State.
Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
2021 College Football Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia
Action Spread: Alabama -8.5
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Action Spread: Alabama -10.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia
Action Spread: Georgia -9
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -3
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: UCLA vs. Iowa
Action Spread: Pick'Em
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Penn State vs. UCF*
Action Spread: Penn State -6.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Clemson vs. Ohio State
Action Spread: Clemson -1
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Mississippi State -4
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Michigan vs. Florida
Action Spread: Florida -4
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Action Spread: Wisconsin -6.5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -9.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: North Carolina vs. Auburn
Action Spread: North Carolina -2.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Miami vs. USC
Action Spread: Miami -3
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Indiana vs. Missouri
Action Spread: Indiana -3.5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: Pitt vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Ole Miss -4
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Michigan State vs. Utah
Action Spread: Utah -7.5
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: TCU vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: TCU -1
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Action Spread: Texas -4.5
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Rutgers vs. NC State
Action Spread: NC State -8.5
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Virginia vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Virginia -7.5
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado
Action Spread: Virginia Tech -5.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Minnesota vs. Baylor
Action Spread: Minnesota -0.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Appalachian State vs. Army
Action Spread: Appalachian State -6.5
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -3.5
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Action Spread: Cincinnati -9
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Maryland vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Maryland -2.5
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Utah State vs. South Alabama
Action Spread: South Alabama -0.5
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Nevada vs. SMU
Action Spread: Pick'Em
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Purdue vs. South Carolina
Action Spread: Purdue -8.5
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: West Virginia vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: West Virginia -4
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: UTSA vs. Houston
Action Spread: Houston -4
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: San Diego State -5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Tulane
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -5
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana
Action Spread: Louisiana -4.5
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Stanford vs. Boise State
Action Spread: Boise State -7
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. Western Kentucky
Action Spread: BYU -3
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Troy
Action Spread: Troy -4
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: San Jose State vs. Western Michigan
Action Spread: San Jose State -4
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: Marshall vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -2.5
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Charlotte vs. Eastern Michigan
Action Spread: Eastern Michigan -4
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Ball State -9.5
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
