College Football Bowl Projections for Week 7
Another week, more carnage and upsets among the Associated Press Top 25 rankings — which results in more chaos in my bowl projections.
The biggest impact this week involves Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes. It’s simple for the Tide: win out the rest of the way, including another SEC Championship. Then, 12-1 Alabama is guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Another certainty: if Georgia finishes the regular season 12-0 and loses to a one-loss Alabama in the SEC title game, then both the Bulldogs and Tide would be in the playoff. You can come up with any scenarios involving another other team, but it won’t matter: Georgia and Bama would both be in.
However … this is where it gets tricky for Bama. After losing to Texas A&M, if the Tide lose to Georgia in the SEC title game to finish 11-2, Alabama will need some help to make the four-team playoff.
Regarding Cincinnati: the Bearcats couldn’t have had a better week. They demolished Temple, Notre Dame won (to strengthen UC’s strength of schedule), Alabama lost to Texas A&M and BYU lost to Boise State (which derailed the Cougars’ long-shot playoff hopes).
Even if Cincinnati finishes 13-0, I don’t believe the selection committee will pick UC over a one-loss Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, Oklahoma or Oregon.
Fortunately for Cincinnati, it will be difficult — but not impossible — for two of those Big Ten schools to finish undefeated or with one-loss. So, Cincinnati needs to (a) keep winning … big and (b) hope Oklahoma and Oregon stumble in the final two months while the Big Ten beats up on itself.
Each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 4 Georgia
Action Spread: Georgia -5
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Alabama
Action Spread: Alabama – 6.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 1 Iowa vs. No. 4 Georgia
Action Spread: Georgia -15
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Kentucky -3
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Michigan vs. Oregon
Action Spread: Michigan -2.5
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati*
Action Spread: Ohio State -6
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Notre Dame vs. NC State
Action Spread: Notre Dame -4.5
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Mississippi State -2.5
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Penn State -4
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -13
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Auburn
Action Spread: Auburn -7
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Boston College vs. Utah
Action Spread: Utah -5.5
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Minnesota vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -8.5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: Virginia vs. Florida
Action Spread: Florida -8.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Wisconsin -3
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Arizona State -1
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Texas
Action Spread: Texas -4
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Purdue
Action Spread: Virginia Tech -5.5
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: North Carolina vs. SMU
Action Spread: North Carolina -3.5
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Pitt vs. UCLA
Action Spread: UCLA -0.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Maryland vs. Kansas State
Action Spread: Kansas State -0.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: TCU vs. Tennessee
Action Spread: Pick'em
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Texas Tech vs. USC
Action Spread: USC -5.5
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: LSU vs. Coastal Carolina
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -4.5
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Louisville vs. Houston
Action Spread: Houston -0.5
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Indiana vs. Northern Illinois
Action Spread: Indiana -12
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Action Spread: Western Michigan -11
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Hawaii vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Memphis -2
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Rutgers vs. Florida Atlantic
Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -0.5
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Wyoming vs. Army
Action Spread: Pick'em
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Air Force vs. Eastern Michigan
Action Spread: Eastern Michigan -0.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Kent State vs. Boise State
Action Spread: Boise State -12
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: East Carolina vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Pick'em
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana
Action Spread: Louisiana -6.5
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Stanford vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: Stanford -0.5
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. UTSA
Action Spread: BYU -6
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Troy vs. Charlotte
Action Spread: Troy -9
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Nevada vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Nevada -18
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: UCF vs. Appalachian State
Action Spread: Appalachian State -2
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -12
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Marshall vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Marshall -3.5
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
