In recent years, the Mid-American Football Conference has been about as predictable as a game of Keno.
Over the last decade, every program has made it to a conference championship game except for Eastern Michigan, and no team has completed that feat in back-to-back seasons.
Six separate programs have hoisted the MAC Championship trophy during that span.
Last season, it was Northern Illinois that stunned the conference. The Huskies bounced back from a winless 2020 season to a championship run. The group will need to have the same luck it had last season after winning all seven of its contests decided by one possession.
The madness is what makes MACtion unlike any other conference. Unpredictable weeknight football is what sports fans across the country crave.
Below, we evaluate which program could be this season’s diamond in the rough.
Toledo Over 8 & +360 to Win MAC
I’m confident that Toledo boasts the best roster in a conference full of uncertainty. Although, that seems to have been the case in recent years, and the program has underproduced.
After winning 20 games in Jason Candle’s first two seasons, his team has amounted 24 wins over the last four years. But this year, I'm expecting Candle to turn back the clock to another double-digit win season.
The offense will need to replace running back Bryant Koback, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry and recorded 15 touchdowns last season. Incoming Maryland transfer Peny Boone is expected to take over the role behind a dominant offensive line that returns four starters.
Quarterback Dequan Finn took over the starting role in Week 7 and posted 18 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. Finn’s dual-threat ability will make him a serious problem in the conference.
He proved dominant with his legs, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while punching in another nine touchdowns.
— SportingVids (@VidsSporting) December 17, 2021
The defense was the best unit in the conference last season, allowing 4.9 yards per play and 22 points per game. The Rockets defense returns eight starters from last year and has the potential to be one of the best in the Group of Five.
Toledo finished last season 7-6 with five losses coming by one possession. I expect Candle to keep his foot on the gas pedal this season and steamroll through the Mid-American Conference
The Rockets are going to lose on a Week 3 trip to Ohio State and will have a coin-toss matchup against San Diego State next.
My numbers have the Rockets favored by at least a touchdown in the remaining 10 games and double-digit favorites in eight of those matchups.
Over 8 & +360 to Win MAC
Western Michigan Under 6.5 Wins
Western Michigan enjoyed its best season in Tim Lester’s six-year tenure, finishing with an 8-5 record in 2021. The group started out 4-1, including a win over Pitt as 14.5-point underdogs to start the year.
But the program was mediocre at best down the stretch, winning four of its final nine contests.
It was the offense that carried the team, averaging a conference-best 34 points per game. That offensive production will be sorely missed after losing quarterback Kaleb Eleby and wide receiver Skyy Moore.
The group will also need to rebuild the offensive line after losing three starters who dominated the conference.
With all of the offensive turnover, Western Michigan will need to lean on its defense to pick up the slack.
That will likely be too big of a task, as the Broncos also will be without the dynamic duo of Ralph Holley and Ali Fayad from the defensive line. The tandem combined for 44% of the team's total sacks last season.
This year’s schedule doesn’t do Lester’s program any favors with nonconference matchups against Michigan State and Pitt. The Broncos will be catching more than a touchdown against Toledo and San Jose State. They will need to be perfect in their remaining games to go over this total.
With all of the turnover at crucial positions, I anticipate Lester to go from his best season to his worst at Western Michigan.
Under 6.5
Bowling Green Over 4 Wins
Bowling Green’s fan base is desperate for a bowl game after missing out the last six seasons.
Head coach Scot Loeffler has won just seven games through his first four seasons running the program. But this could be the Falcons' year after keeping 17 starters within the program.
Last year’s 4-8 season was highlighted by a road win over Minnesota, but the Falcons also dropped three games by one possession.
The defense brings back nearly all its leading tacklers from last season, including the entire front seven. The veteran group ranked fourth in the MAC in total defense and owned the top unit against the pass.
The offense started a slew of underclassmen last season, and the unit had its growing pains, averaging just 21 points per game. Only once did the offense score over 28 points.
With the return of nine starters and some key position players on the offense, I anticipate some positive momentum.
There are no more excuses for Loeffler, as he brings back one of the most experienced units in the conference.
The Falcons have a brutal nonconference schedule and will likely start the season 2-3 (wins over Eastern Kentucky and Akron). Six of the final seven matchups are extremely winnable, as I have five of them projected with less than a three-point spread.
Bowling Green will need to win just two of those games to go over its season win total.
Last season, Northern Illinois showcased how a few fortunate bounces can lead a program from rock bottom to a conference title in one season. That could very well be Bowling Green this season.
Over 4
