Headed into the final week of the regular season, nine of the 20 conference championship spots remain up for grabs.
For your reference, here are the 11 we know already:
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida State
- Louisville
- Iowa
- Troy
- Liberty
- New Mexico State
- Toledo
- Miami (OH)
- Washington
There's plenty still left to be decided, including 24 teams needing a win to clinch bowl eligibility on the final weekend.
I'll help provide clarity on each conference below to help you better understand which games still hold significant meaning for the conference standings.
Keep in mind that these implications can speak to motivation this late in the season.
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American Athletic Conference
Currently, Tulane, UTSA and SMU all sit at 7-0 in league play.
The winner of Tulane-UTSA will claim one bid, while the loser must hope SMU loses to Navy in which case it would come down to a computer composite tiebreaker. If SMU wins, it's in.
The most likely scenario is SMU (-20) facing the winner of UTSA at Tulane.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- South Florida (5-6)
- Navy (5-5)
- Rice (5-6)
Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Virginia Tech (5-6)
- Syracuse (5-6)
Big Ten
The winner of Ohio State at Michigan will win the East and take on Iowa in the Big Ten championship.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Nebraska (5-6)
- Illinois (5-6)
- Minnesota (5-6)
Big 12
The Big 12 remains a mess.
The easiest scenario involves first-place Texas beating Texas Tech, which would lock up one spot.
In this case, if Oklahoma State beats BYU, the Cowboys would go to the Big 12 title game to take on Texas. If Oklahoma State gets upset and Oklahoma beats TCU, the Sooners would go. Meanwhile, Kansas State would need to beat Iowa State and hope for losses by both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
However, if Texas loses to Texas Tech, it could still clinch a spot if two of the three second-place teams lose, but it's much more likely a Texas loss would create a four-way tie for first place with Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State if all three win this weekend as double-digit home favorites.
The rules seem to be changing by the minute, and the Big 12 stated it will provide more clarification if Texas loses on Friday night, so check back here then.
The Big 12 has released an update on its championship game tiebreaker situation.
Here's where things stand going into the week: https://t.co/MEVEofRkIupic.twitter.com/zFjmje2c36
— Max Olson (@max_olson) November 20, 2023
Just know the most likely scenario is Texas taking on Oklahoma State if both take care of business this weekend.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- BYU (5-6)
- UCF (5-6)
- TCU (5-6)
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Conference USA
No math is needed here, as the CUSA Championship matchup has already been set. Liberty will host New Mexico State in Lynchburg, Virginia, on Dec. 2.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- N/A
Mid-American Conference
Toledo will face Miami (OH) in Detroit for the MAC title.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Central Michigan (5-6)
- Northern Illinois (5-6)
- Eastern Michigan (5-6)
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Mountain West Conference
UNLV (6-1) sits all alone atop the league standings. If the Rebels beat San Jose State (5-2) at home, they will host the winner of Air Force (5-2) at Boise State (5-2) in the Mountain West title game in Las Vegas
However, if the Spartans can pull off the mini upset, they would move into a three-way tie for first with the Rebels and winner of Air Force at Boise State. In every scenario, it would come down to a computer composite, which in all likelihood would still have UNLV in first based on its current lead.
While Boise State would likely win the second spot, it isn't a guarantee and gets a little dicier if it comes down to San Jose State vs. Air Force for the second spot.
Since there’s been a lot of discussion on it, here’s the full 2023 tiebreaker scenarios from the Mountain West.
Again I confirmed with the Mountain West that a 3-team tie for spots 1 and 2 is decided by composite rankings for both spots if the teams didn’t all play H2H. pic.twitter.com/cA5ZscQfNP
— B.J. Rains (@BJRains) November 20, 2023
There's still plenty to be determined with the four possible teams playing each other this weekend with no team locked into the title game as it stands. However, the most likely scenario is UNLV hosting Boise State.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Utah State (5-6)
- Colorado State (5-6)
Pac-12 Conference
Washington (8-0) has clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game. The Huskies will face Oregon if the Ducks simply win at home vs. Oregon State (+14).
However, if the Beavers can pull off the stunner, Arizona would actually win the tiebreaker for second place and sneak into the Pac-12 title game, assuming the Wildcats beat Arizona State.
If they do not, Oregon would still go even with a loss to its in-state rival.
In all likelihood, we will get a Washington-Oregon rematch.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Cal (5-6)
- Washington State (5-6)
Southeastern Conference
We already know the SEC Championship matchup. Alabama will take on Georgia in Atlanta.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Florida (5-6)
- Mississippi State (5-6)
- South Carolina (5-6)
Sun Belt Conference
Troy has clinched the West Division, but the East remains up for grabs.
With JMU failing to receive a last-minute waiver to override the archaic NCAA rule that prevents it from competing in the postseason, the East Division crown will go to either Coastal Carolina (vs. JMU) or Appalachian State (vs. Georgia Southern).
If Coastal beats JMU, the Chants would go to the Sun Belt Championship, regardless of what App State does since the Mountaineers lost to Coastal earlier this year. However, if Appalachian State wins and Coastal loses, the Mountaineers would make it.
If both lose, Coastal wins the tiebreaker.
Teams still fighting for bowl eligibility:
- Marshall (5-6)
- Louisiana (5-6)
- Old Dominion (5-6)
