In the past two seasons, the AAC has been ransacked by the Big 12 and ACC.
In 2023, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF bolted for the Big 12. And this past realignment cycle, SMU opened its wallets and finagled an invite into the ACC. Southern Methodist will forgo ACC media rights distribution for nine years, but the Ponies finally have a seat at the big kids' table.
The American wasted little time rebuilding by going on the offensive in 2023, adding Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA to the mix. This season, it welcomes in Army. For the first time, Army and Navy will be in the same conference.
The other piece of good news is that the very top of the conference has four legitimate threats to secure the G5 bid to the College Football Playoff. The 12-team field provides one auto bid to the highest-ranked G5 champion, making the title race in the AAC extra meaningful this fall.
Pepper in my disdain for Trent Dilfer and the AAC is overflowing with reasons to watch in 2024.
Here's my complete 2024 AAC Preview, plus my favorite betting angles.
2024 AAC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Memphis | +230 |
| Tulane | +300 |
| UTSA | +500 |
| South Florida | +700 |
| Rice | +2000 |
| East Carolina | +2000 |
| Army | +2500 |
| North Texas | +2500 |
| Florida Atlantic | +3000 |
| Navy | +3000 |
| UAB | +3000 |
| Tulsa | +4000 |
| Charlotte | +5000 |
| Temple | +18000 |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel | |
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The Memphis Tigers had an impressive 2023 season, finishing 10-3 with a 6-2 conference record. With a win total projection of 9.5 and +210 odds to win the American Athletic Conference, they're deservedly considered the AAC favorite.
Henigan, Offense to Lead Tigers
One of the Tigers' key strengths is their high-powered offense, which could put up 40 points per game. Led by senior quarterback Seth Henigan, the team ranks 29th in returning production on offense.
Wide receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee both return as crucial playmakers after combining for 185 targets and 33% of the team's receiving touchdowns last season.
The offense also got an infusion from the SEC with left tackle Jaylen Nichols and running back Mario Anderson entering the picture from South Carolina.
Nichols will help anchor an offensive line with plenty of returning experience, but it should be noted that the reshuffling of the line could result in five starters in five new roles.
Anderson will be tasked with replacing a solid back in Blake Watson, but he has the skill set to do so.
With a mix of returning talent and new additions, the Tigers offense looked poised for success not just this year but moving forward. The Bluff City Collective has funneled major money into the program and could signal the beginning of a golden era of Memphis football.
On the defensive side, Memphis faced challenges during a four-week stretch from Oct. 28 to Nov. 18. It struggled to contain opponents, giving up 42 points to North Texas, 50 to South Florida, 38 to Charlotte and 38 to SMU.
The defense ranked 124th in pass defense and 131st in tackling.
Unlike the big names the Tigers plugged in on offense, I'm not convinced the additions they made in the portal are going to help them take major strides forward on the defensive side of the ball.
Memphis did bolster its linebacker and defensive back units through the portal, but some of those additions hail from Samford, Old Dominion and Akron, raising questions about the defense's ability to hold up against the conference's top offenses.
This team is similar to Boise State and Texas State because there's one key question: If they have dynamic offenses, will the defense do enough?
The Tigers will face a few offenses that could expose them with road games against Florida State, South Florida, UTSA, and Tulane. Between that road gauntlet and their short AAC number, I'm passing on the Tigers.
The Tulane Green Wave had an outstanding 2023 season, finishing with an impressive 11-3 overall record and going undefeated in conference play at 8-0. With the second-shortest odds to win the AAC at +370, they'll once again be a contender in the conference.
Head coach Willie Fritz, who put up a remarkable 15-1 record in his last 16 regular-season AAC games, departed, leaving behind a memorable legacy at Tulane.
He'll be succeeded by Jon Sumrall, a rising star who boasts an impressive 23-4 record in two years at Troy. Sumrall's return to Tulane, where he previously served as co-defensive coordinator from 2012-14, brings high hopes for the team long-term.
While a lot was expected of quarterback Michael Pratt last season, he was simply good — not great (49th in QBR).
Tulane Has Pieces on Offense
But do you know who was great? Running back Makhi Hughes, who returns after recording nearly 1,400 yards in 2023. He'll be asked to do it again with three starters returning on the offensive line.
The addition of transfers Mario Williams from USC and Shazz Preston from Alabama added depth to the receiving corps and give the Green Wave a lot to like on offense.
Plus, Tulane added a new quarterback in Oregon transfer Ty Thompson. If offensive coordinator Joe Craddock could turn former Troy signal-caller Gunnar Watson into a great G5 QB, he can do it with Thompson.
On the defensive side, the Green Wave have solid building blocks with Patrick Jenkins on the line and Tyler Grubbs at linebacker. Additionally, Jesus Machado made significant strides last season as a linebacker.
The secondary saw a revamp with six transfers in the mix, including Caleb Ransaw from Troy, Jalen Geiger from Kentucky and Lu Tillery from ULM, all vying for starting roles.
The upside of this schedule is that there are potential signature wins that could propel Tulane to the College Football Playoff. In September alone, the Green Wave will face Kansas State, Oklahoma, Louisiana and USF.
The season culminates with a Thanksgiving matchup at home against Memphis. Depending on how the season goes before that, the Green Wave will either be fighting for a conference title or waving a white flag. That's the double-edged sword nature of this schedule.
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Trust in Traylor?
UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor has transformed the Roadrunners into a force in the Group of Five. Traylor boasts an impressive 27-4 record in conference play since taking over the program in 2020, securing two conference titles in just four years.
Despite the absence of familiar names like "Doctor" Frank Harris, this year's team is prepared to make its mark.
The quarterback position for the Roadrunners is up for grabs between Owen McCown, Eddie Lee Marburger and Alabama State transfer Dematrius Davis. Remember Davis' name. A former four-star recruit and two-time 6A Texas state champion in high school, he brings electric playmaking abilities to the field despite being overshadowed by an injury last season.
Wide receiver De'Corian Clark and tight end Oscar Cardenas also provide reliable targets for whoever starts under center. Clark's health status is one to monitor because he hasn't played since suffering a knee injury late in 2022.
With a strong three-headed monster at running back — Kevorian Barnes, Rocko Griffin and Robert Henry — and an experienced offensive line, the offense could impress.
Former Texas A&M Aggie Denver Harris, a blue-chip recruit, adds depth and talent to the secondary. If everything falls into place, the Roadrunners could have a solid back end.
The major issue will be getting after the quarterback.
AAC Defensive Player of the Year Trey Moore transferred to Texas, projected starting linebacker Martavius French has been suspended indefinitely, and lineman Nick Booker-Brown is facing aggravated robbery charges. Those losses in the front seven will be difficult to overcome against the top of the conference.
UTSA faces a front-loaded schedule, with key matchups against in-state rivals Texas State and Texas. If it splits those games, its College Football Playoff hopes may be alive entering a Nov. 2 game against Memphis at the Alamodome.
Traylor's track record of success gives me confidence in the Roadrunners' ability to at least make a run at some point.
With momentum building heading into crucial games against East Carolina, Rice, FAU and Tulsa, UTSA has a potentially promising path.
Under the guidance of head coach Alex Golesh, South Florida saw a resurgence thanks to its new Veer and Shoot offense.
Returning Production Highlights USF Offense
Quarterback Byrum Brown made significant strides, showcasing his potential in a high-scoring matchup against Memphis in which he threw for 357 yards and five touchdowns while running for another 100. Brown's impressive performance continued with 12 touchdowns in his final four games, including an impressive display against Syracuse in a bowl blowout.
Brown's dynamic play on the field earned him recognition alongside Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels as the only players in college football to achieve 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in a season.
USF ranks top-10 nationally in returning production. With the return of key offensive weapons like wide receiver Sean Atkins and running backs Nay'Quan Wright and transfer Ta'ron Keith, the Bulls' offense is poised for success.
Additionally, the offensive line returns more than half of its unit, providing stability and protection for Brown.
On the defensive side, South Florida carries experience at all three levels, featuring standouts like Rashad Cheney up front, DJ Gordon IV in the linebacking corps, and cornerbacks Aamaris Brown and Tavin Ward in the secondary.
Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando aims to create Havoc and disrupt opposing offenses. The Bulls ranked in the top 50 in creating Havoc last season, taking the ball away 24 times to rank 13th nationally. If they can get more of that, they'll be in a good shape to win a handful of entertaining shootouts.
With tough early-season matchups against Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis, the Bulls have a decidedly challenging schedule. However, they have the potential to finish strong and win their final six against UAB, FAU, Navy, Charlotte, Tulsa and Rice.
With dynamic playmakers running Golesh's offense and a Havoc-hungry defense, USF has a platform to compete at a high level and potentially achieve significant success in the AAC.
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Rice had a solid 2023 season, reaching bowl eligibility with a 6-6 regular-season record, including a 4-4 mark in conference play. Ultimately, it fell short in the First Responders Bowl against Texas State. But this program is the little engine that could. In the past three seasons, the Owls have improved from four to five to six wins. Is seven on deck?
Heading into the upcoming season, continuity will be a significant strength. With a +8.5 in net TARP — the best in the Group of Five — the team boasts stability.
The same is true for the coaching staff. Head coach Mike Bloomgren enters his seventh year at the helm, supported by Marques Tuiasosopo in his fourth year as offensive coordinator and Brian Smith leading the defense for the seventh season. The consistent coaching staff has led Rice to back-to-back bowl appearances.
Last year, the offense showed promise, averaging nearly 30 points per game despite injuries at quarterback. However, the team will bid farewell to Luke McCaffrey at wide receiver and will need to rely on Dean Connors at running back more heavily. He represents the only true experience among their skill position players.
The offensive line benefits from the return of three starters, including both tackles. They surrendered 2.23 sacks per game last season (81st) and need to improve on that front.
Warner Highlights Portal Additions
Quarterback EJ Warner is the headliner from the portal and the key to a winning season in Houston. The son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, EJ has thrown for more than 6,000 yards in his career and put Temple on his back multiple times in his career with the (Northern) Owls.
Why is the addition of Warner so important? In his last five starts at Temple, Warner averaged 362 passing yards per game and threw 16 touchdown passes.
On the defensive side, Rice returns seven starters and boasts experience at all three levels. The Owls rank among the top Group of Five programs in returning defensive production, setting the stage for a potentially strong 2024.
If everything works out, a top-75 defense is within reach.
The Owls' schedule is manageable, as they mostly avoid daunting matchups. They face Houston on the road and head to Tulane a month later before making a trip to Memphis in early November. Then, after going to Birmingham to face UAB, they wrap up the season at home against USF.
With a balanced schedule, coaching continuity, and an experienced roster that added an all-conference caliber quarterback, Rice will look to build upon its recent success in 2024.
East Carolina is looking to bounce back after a rough 2-10 season. The Pirates are somewhat expected to bounce back with a win total at 6.5, but make no mistake — it's make-or-break time for head coach Mike Houston.
Despite a disappointing year, Houston had earned a mulligan for his steady program-building efforts. The Pirates notably fell short in several close games, facing tight losses to Tulsa by two, Tulane by three, Charlotte by three, Rice by seven and held Navy to 10 points in a loss.
Winning just two of those matchups would have altered the perception of the season as a normal downturn rather than a cause for alarm regarding the coach's future.
The defense stands out as a potential strength for East Carolina, especially when defending the run. The Pirates ranked second nationally in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.
Defensive coordinator Blake Harrell benefits from the return of nearly his entire defensive line, including tackles D'Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens, who combined for 19 tackles for loss and 25 run stops.
Linebacker Mike Edwards III brings excellence to the unit, and if one of the three transfers clicks, the defense will be fine.
Who Starts at Quarterback for ECU?
A key question mark lies at the quarterback position, with Jake Garcia and Michigan State transfer Katin Houser competing for the starting role.
Regardless of who emerges as the leader, the offense must undergo a significant improvement to reverse its lackluster performance from a season ago.
With little offensive prowess and a potentially solid defense, I'll be watching East Carolina unders on a week-to-week basis.
I also lean toward the under on its win total. Despite the close losses from a season ago, I don't see a ton of instant improvement coming from Houston's squad with uncertainty under center.
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It's safe to say that Army's gun option experiment didn't work. The Black Knights are now transitioning back to a traditional triple-option look under new full-time offensive coordinator Cody Worley. With Drew Thatcher and Matt Drinkall departing, the team seeks to rediscover its identity.
Back to the Basics
The offensive line benefits from the return of five players with starting experience, providing a solid foundation.
Quarterback Bryson Daily and fullback Kanye Udoh return, with Daily's powerful running style driving the team's offensive success.
Over the last four games of the 2023 season, Daily averaged 110 rushing yards per game, proving that he's the guy to get the Black Knights back in the win column. He's an absolute bull at 225 pounds and can handle the punishment doled out to an option quarterback over the course of a season.
A big part of Army's winning formula has been ball control. During a six-year run from 2016-21, the Cadets finished outside the top five in time of possession just once and appeared in five bowl games. If they can operate as they did using the flexbone down the stretch, I anticipate the clock-killing drives that made them winners in years past.
Defensively, Nate Woody's unit had two calling cards in 2023. It limited big plays and finished in the top 40 in red-zone defense.
However, Army faces a challenge with only three players who played 250 snaps returning. The need for new contributors to step up and solidify the defense will be crucial for the Black Knights' success.
Army's schedule provides an opportunity for early momentum, with matchups against Lehigh, FAU, Rice, Temple, and Tulsa to kick off the season. Notably, the absence of challenging opponents like Tulane and Memphis gives Army a chance to establish itself once again.
My Best Bet: Army Over 5.5 Wins
In 2023, North Texas entered a new era with a fresh head coach and new identity that propelled the team to a significant milestone — producing a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver in the same season for the first time ever.
A New Chandler Steps In
Despite finishing sixth nationally in total offense, the Mean Green face the challenge of maintaining their momentum while bringing in a new quarterback. Chandler Morris' fit within an Air Raid offense is promising, but injury concerns persist, and he hasn't necessarily met past expectations.
With how well the offense played under former signal-caller Chandler Rogers, one has to wonder if Morris can keep it rolling.
On the defensive side, North Texas struggled significantly last year. The unit was as bad as the offense was good, surrendering an average of 476 yards per game.
While six starters return, improvement will be crucial.
The Mean Green addressed a few concerns by utilizing the transfer portal to bolster the secondary, securing talent like Isheem Young from Ole Miss to play the "STAR" position.
We talk a lot about not wasting home games on difficult spots. Well, North Texas doesn't this season. It plays Texas Tech, Memphis and UTSA on the road, and those are all likely losses in the first place.
Plus, there are winnable opportunities against South Alabama, Stephen F. Austin, Tulsa, Army, East Carolina and Temple. These games present chances for the Mean Green to showcase their offensive prowess while approaching their win total.
However, considering the uncertainty surrounding this team at quarterback and on the defensive side of the ball, I'm going to pass on any futures.
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Owls Continue to Rebuild
FAU looks to bounce back from a 4-8 record last year, and oddsmakers are looking for a bit of a rebound, setting its win total at 6.5 for 2024.
Anticipation was high for the offense last season, but the Owls struggled to find consistency and production. Now, LaJohntay Wester — the only Owl who flew high — departs to play for Coach Prime and Colorado.
Only the starting center returns to this offense. Add in Marshall transfer quarterback Cam Fancher — who I never really trusted in Huntington — and things get sketchy fast on that side of the ball.
While the defense showed improvement in the final month of the season, significant changes are expected because they have to replace nearly everyone in the secondary.
The challenge of rebuilding both sides of the ball is concerning heading into the new season.
FAU avoids Memphis and Tulane, and it has a relatively easy stretch against Army, FIU, UConn and Wagner that provides some fool's gold.
As the Owls aim to improve on their previous season's performance, they still have to address key areas on both sides of the ball.
Navy Midshipmen
AAC: +3000 · Win Total: 5.5
A major change for Navy this season comes in the form of new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. Known as a Wing-T expert in college football, Cronic has introduced a modernized version of the traditional Wing-T offense, dubbing it the "Millennial Version."
The Wing-T offense emphasizes misdirection in the running game, requiring versatile backs like Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, who possess the speed and agility to navigate inside and outside running lanes effectively.
The team benefits from a super-experienced offensive line, which complements the unique demands of the Wing T scheme.
Defense Could Help Navy in AAC Play
On the defensive side, Navy can make strides in defending the pass because it returns every starter. However, the team needs to find a way to hold up on the ground following the departure of nose guard Donald Berniard Jr.
If the defense can maintain stability against the run — especially after finishing 33rd in the nation in that category last season — Navy has the potential to field a competitive defense in the AAC.
The Midshipmen's schedule is segmented into two distinct halves, with an opportunity to secure crucial wins over Bucknell, Temple, UAB, Air Force and Charlotte in the initial games.
They need four or five wins there because the latter half of the schedule is much more brutal. The second half features Notre Dame, Rice, South Florida, Tulane and East Carolina before the Army-Navy clash in Maryland.
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Trent Dilfer came in and talked a big game last season.
He talked about facing the lion, saying that he wins wherever he goes. Well, the Blazers lost eight games last season, and three of their four wins — Temple, North Carolina A&T and FAU by three — weren't impressive.
Dilfer's offensive strategy relies on short completions. Quarterback Jacob Zeno proved to be great in that area, owning a completion rate of 73.6%. However, he recorded the lowest aDOT of any full-time starter in college football.
Once teams got used to the short passes, they started jumping routes, which is why he still threw nine interceptions. He also lost four fumbles, putting the Blazers behind the eight ball in a handful of shootouts.
There is a bright spot on offense, though. Wide receiver Amare Thomas emerged as a standout player as a freshman and could be an All-AAC player out wide this season.
The Dilfer Dilemma
On the defensive side, Dilfer openly acknowledged the unit's struggles, describing the defense as "terrible" or "horrible" six times in a 17-minute press conference last month. The Blazers could barely line up correctly last season and gave up an average of 37 points per game.
The decision to revamp the secondary wasn't Dilfer's. His two starting cornerbacks bolted post-spring, so he'll be relying on transfers from Alabama State and Georgia Tech to play well early. Despite the roster turnover, my biggest concerns remain with this coaching staff.
Dilfer, defiant and arrogant to a fault, believes that he doesn't need to adapt to the college game. Sione Ta'ufo'ou was Dilfer's defensive coordinator when they coached in high school, and they worked together at Elite 11 camps. Ta'ufo'ou was in over his head last season and his defense got shredded. Yet, Dilfer made no major changes on the defensive staff, aside from adding C.J. Cox to handle his safeties. A perplexing decision.
After ranking 131st in third-down defense, 111th in red-zone touchdown percentage defense and 130th in tackles for loss, alarm bells should have been going off in Birmingham. But apparently, that was good enough for Dilfer.
Looking ahead, UAB's schedule presents a mix of challenges and opportunities. It has likely wins over Alcorn State, UL Monroe, UConn, and Charlotte, along with likely losses against Arkansas, Tulane, South Florida, and Memphis.
That makes toss-ups against Navy, Army, Tulsa, and Rice even more important if the Blazers want to cash the over on their season win total of 6.5. Given the fact that Army, Navy and Rice can run the football, I smell another Dilfer letdown in 2024.
My Best Bet: UAB Under 6.5 Wins![aac-preview-odds-futures-picks-best bets-2024]()
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: UAB head coach Trent Dilfer.
Tulsa faces a decision at quarterback entering this new season with Kirk Francis, Cooper Legas and Cardell Williams vying for the role.
Three-Way QB Battle in Tulsa
Francis, a former local high school walk-on, showed promise last season and helped the Golden Hurricane pick up a clutch 29-27 victory in their regular-season finale against East Carolina.
He threw for 967 yards and six touchdowns against three picks in four games. Williams accounted for 15 total touchdowns (10 passing, five running) before bowing out with a shoulder injury. Legas has had his moments at Utah State and cut way back on his turnover-worthy throws in 2023.
The chosen quarterback will have a talented supporting cast, including leading rusher Anthony Watkins (889 yards, four touchdowns), wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin (727 yards, six touchdowns) and tight end Ethan Hall.
Wide receiver Braylin Presley, a 5-foot-6 speedster, could also be a key returnee after getting contact lenses following a 122-yard season at Oklahoma State.
While the offensive line will undergo a rebuilding process, early matchups against Northwestern State and Arkansas State offer time for cohesion.
Meanwhile, the 4-2-5 defense was a trainwreck last season. The Golden Hurricane ranked 13th out of 14 AAC teams in total defense and gave up 33.8 points per game. The secondary could see some improvement, however, with the majority of starters returning intact.
Tulsa's schedule sets the stage for a potential bounceback, with anticipated home victories over Northwestern State, FAU and perhaps East Carolina.
The Golden Hurricane's win total of 4.5 will ultimately come down to road contests against Louisiana Tech, Temple, and UAB, along with a pivotal home game against Army.
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The Charlotte 49ers are undergoing significant changes under the leadership of head coach Biff Poggi. The Niners lost 19 players via the transfer portal but brought in another 20.
Max Brown Steps in at Charlotte
Quarterbacks Jalon Jones and Trexler Ivey were lost at sea last season, which is why Poggi is looking to breathe new life into a struggling offense. He scored a major coup by convincing quarterback Max Brown to transfer in from Florida.
Known for his ability to utilize mobile quarterbacks, Poggi could finally find success with Brown under center. The transfer racked up 2,300 yards on the ground in his final two high school seasons.
Poggi has also raved about new running back Cartevious Norton, who brings Power 4 experience from Iowa State and adds depth and talent to the backfield.
Despite returning experience on the team, Charlotte bolstered its receiving corps by acquiring players from South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, and the JUCO ranks. Any spark on the perimeter will be welcomed after they gained just 167.8 yards through the air per game last fall to rank 116th nationally.
The offensive line has good size but limited starting experience. If things come together up front, this offense has the potential to be AAC "middle class" in 2024.
On the defensive side, the 49ers face a major challenge as they look to replace eight starters from last season. However, cornerbacks Dontae Balfour and Prince Wallace-Bemah return and stand out as players who could potentially contend for All-AAC recognition when all is said and done.
There are also positives from a scheduling perspective. Charlotte has three potential wins over Gardner-Webb, East Carolina, and UAB at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Road matchups against Rice, Navy, and FAU will be pivotal when it comes to attacking the 49ers' from a futures perspective.
Brace for impact, Temple fans. The Owls could lose every game on their schedule.
Home games against Utah State, FAU and North Texas offer potential opportunities for wins, but none of those are guaranteed.
Things Headed Downhill for Owls
Things get even worse when it comes to the uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball. The Owls rank 130th in returning production and lost two key players in quarterback EJ Warner to Rice and left tackle Victor Stoffel to Cal.
With a three-man quarterback battle underway between Forrest Brock, Evan Simon and Tyler Douglas, Temple must swiftly adjust to a new signal-caller.
Luckily for whoever wins the starting job, wide receivers Dante Wright and Zae Baines aren't the worst weapons to have on the outside. Wright already has 20 career games in which he caught at least one pass of 20 yards or more.
Defensively, there are too many JUCO transfers on the two-deep depth chart to feel great — especially considering the Owls are going to face three vastly different offenses early in the season.
Seth Littrell's “Run Raid” at Oklahoma is going to spread Temple out and run the ball against light boxes. Then, Navy will be a total flip in terms of formations and gap discipline the following week. Finally, Coastal Carolina will change the assignment yet again in Week 3 with its quick game and RPO system.
Ultimately, the Owls understand the urgency to inject new energy into the program. That becomes even more true when looking at the departure of Warner and the infusion of JUCO talent into the defense.
It doesn't help that university president John Fry is fielding questions about disbanding the program. To put it lightly, the vibes are off with this team heading into 2024.
With a significant quarterback battle still raging on and a defense that faces significant questions and obstacles, Temple might have too much to overcome to win one, let alone three games this season.
My Best Bet: Temple Under 2.5 Wins
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AAC Futures & Best Bets
- Army Over 5.5 Wins
- UAB Under 6.5 Wins
- Temple Under 2.5 Wins
