The Olympics caught a glimpse of conference realignment when certain ACC teams were mentioned for producing gold medalists. One of those teams was Stanford, credited for the gold medal won by swimmer Katie Ledecky.
Yes, Stanford and the ACC. This certainly is a new age of college football, as SMU and Cal join the Cardinal to round out the 17-team super conference.
The headlines in this conference continue to surround Florida State and Clemson, which are looking to leave the league if they can find a way out of the Grant of Rights.
But with Florida State unlikely to join the Big Ten or SEC, the conference will remain at the current number without divisions for the foreseeable future.
The turnover in teams may be high, but only three members of the conference bring a new head coach to the table. After years of dominance from Clemson in the College Football Playoff, the Seminoles were snubbed after an undefeated regular season in 2023.
The biggest question is how many teams will make the playoff from this conference, as cannibalization has always been a factor for the ACC for many seasons.
Before we break down team previews and bets on all teams, let's take a look at my projected season-long and conference win totals.
2024 ACC Preview & Projected Win Totals
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Duke Blue Devils
ACC: +15000 · Win Total: 5.5
A new era is set to begin at Duke, as Manny Diaz departs Penn State to take on his second job as a head coach.
The Miami native was the Hurricanes' coach from 2019-21, generating a lukewarm record of 21-15 that included Cheez-It and Independence Bowl losses.
Considered one of the best defensive minds in college football, Diaz takes over the 4-2-5 defense of his predecessor, Mike Elko.
New offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer spent time on the Miami staff under Diaz before serving as the co-offensive coordinator at SMU last season.
Murphy to Lead Duke at Quarterback
Brewer is expected to implement a balanced attack of zone read through 11 and 10 personnel, receiving one of the most talented quarterbacks through the portal.
Maalik Murphy transfers in from Texas after heavy recruitment from the state of California.
While Murphy will finally see playing time, the Duke offensive line is the most inexperienced in the ACC.
Defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke was a former assistant on Diaz’s staff but now looks to implement a multiple look.
Defenses under the direction of Diaz tend to flash multiple numbers on the defensive line with aggression as the narrative. Penn State blitzed at one of the highest rates in the country at 51%, generating a 63% Success Rate.
However, Diaz will not have the same talent as the Nittany Lions with a defensive TARP (Transfer Activity & Returning Production) number below the national average.
Linebacker Tre Freeman is expected to lead the defense.
Nonconference games against Elon, UConn and Middle Tennessee are expected victories for the Blue Devils. However, Duke will be an underdog in every conference game with the exception of a coin-flip against Wake Forest at the end of the year.
Although Duke should be a touchdown favorite over Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets will have extra rest in preparing for a Duke team in Year 0 under Diaz.
Pick: Duke ACC Win Total Under 2.5 (-130)
In a season with a new coach from the FCS and a roster chock-full of new faces, Stanford met oddsmakers' expectations with a three-win season.
Head coach Troy Taylor will continue to call the plays on offense, keeping the title “Director of Offense.”
The Cardinal bring one of the highest numbers in terms of experience on both sides of the ball, starting with quarterback Ashton Daniels.
The third-year quarterback must improve after posting a 4.7% rate of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays.
An even split of yards from designed calls and scrambles for Daniels will continue to be a large part of an offense that looks to confuse defenses with multiple personnel and pre-snap motion.
In fact, Stanford ran nearly as many trick plays as any other run concept in 2023.
Can Stanford's Defense Improve?
The linebacker corps is expected to be the best unit in the 2-4-5 personnel for defensive coordinator Bobby April.
The defense returns 80% of all counting stats from sacks, tackles and pressures but must improve on last year. Stanford finished outside the top 120 in numerous defensive categories, including opponent Rushing Success Rate, pass explosives and Finishing Drives.
The schedule suggests eclipsing last year's win total will take a few upsets. Stanford will be a heavy favorite over Cal Poly but must find a way to win as an underdog against TCU, Syracuse and San Jose State. Including Wake Forest, there's a ceiling of five wins on the schedule.
The projected win total falls at 3.6, but Stanford will more than likely need a victory over TCU in the season opener to eclipse the win total. Look for an under to be complemented by select moneyline plays.
Pick: Stanford Under 3.5 (+135) · Stanford ML +270 vs. TCU (Week 1)
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Pitt is heading in the wrong direction under head coach Pat Narduzzi. The 2021 season concluded with an 11-win season and Peach Bowl appearance, but losses to the NFL and a tougher schedule dragged the Panthers to just three wins last year.
There's good news for the upcoming season, though, as the schedule softens for a roster that returns over 80% on the offensive side of the ball.
Why to Watch Pitt's Over/Unders
New offensive coordinator Kade Bell steps in from Western Carolina, expecting to bring tempo and scoring to Pittsburgh. The Catamounts used a balanced attack through RPO plays, leading the Southern Conference in scoring.
Single-game totals should be on the rise with the Panthers' schedule after ranking 82nd in seconds per play in 2023.
There are plenty of quarterbacks to fill depth at the position, unlike the options in-house since the departure of Kenny Pickett. Wide receiver Konata Mumpfield also returns for his senior season after generating 74 targets from the slot.
Defense has always been a staple of Narduzzi, but the numbers bottomed out in numerous categories last season. Pitt failed to produce a top-100 pass rush while finishing second-to-last in broken tackles allowed.
The defensive line will not bring a household name to the table, losing nearly all of its experience as well as position coach Charlie Partridge. While the edge position will bring transfers from Nebraska and Kansas State, the interior positions will be filled by players who served in reserve roles throughout their careers.
Pitt is expected to blow out Kent State and Youngstown State before coin-flip games against Syracuse and Virginia. Both the Orange and Cavaliers will come off a bye week, complicating the chances of victory in ACC play.
The Panthers will be touchdown underdogs or worse in seven other games on the schedule. With a projection of 4.6 wins on the season, Narduzzi and the rebranded uptempo offense have plenty of work in 2024.
Pick: Pitt Under 5.5 Wins (-120)
In 2023, Dave Clawson produced his worst season at Wake Forest since a three-win campaign in 2015, losing eight of his final nine games on the schedule. A seven-year bowl streak was snapped in the process.
Now, a rebuild in Winston-Salem will not be automatic thanks to a low rank in offensive experience.
Quarterback Hank Bachmeier joins after previous seasons under center at Louisiana Tech and Boise State. The sixth-year senior is no stranger to playing behind leaky offensive lines, eclipsing his Boise State pressure-to-sack ratio of 18% to 19.2% in Shreveport last year.
Although Bachmeier has improved his turnover-worthy play ratio year over year, the quarterback has completed a grand total of nine big-time throws under pressure since the 2019 season.
Time to Fade Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons are highly experienced on the offensive line after numerous injuries, but no player finished top-200 at their respective position.
Defensively, linebacker Dylan Hazen leads the most talented group. However, the defensive backs and line are expected to struggle.
Coordinator Brad Lambert has given Wake a boost since his arrival, but the defense fell to 108th in Finishing Drives and near dead last in allowing explosives on passing downs last season.
Now, the secondary will be one of the youngest in the ACC, particularly at the cornerback and nickel positions.
There are plenty of underdog spots on the schedule in which Wake Forest is expected to struggle. A projection of 4.1 wins gives the Deacs no chance of victory in conference games against NC State, Clemson, North Carolina and Miami.
Plus, Cal will visit Truist Field off a bye week as a favorite. The biggest issue with the ACC schedule is the projected spread, as Wake Forest won't be favored by a field goal or more against any conference opponent.
Pick: Wake Forest ACC Win Total Under 2.5 (-110)
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A pair of 3-9 seasons have followed since Tony Elliott left his post at Clemson to take on the head-coaching job at Virginia. Two of those wins came on the road in ACC play as touchdown underdogs, making the Cavaliers one of the most unpredictable teams in the conference.
Elliott will have his most seasoned group yet, as Virginia brings back more than 83% of experience to the offense.
What to Make of Virginia's QB Battle
The quarterback room is populated with depth from two players who started at least six games last season. Tony Muskett returns after suffering an injury on two separate occasions and posting nearly an even ratio of touchdowns to interceptions.
Muskett’s best asset comes in a pressured pocket, as his turnover-worthy play rate remained stable with a minimal dip in adjusted completion percentage.
The competition also includes Anthony Colandrea, a quarterback who last season attempted more passes over 20 yards than passes in the intermediate range.
Anthony Colandrea, never stop throwing these passes. pic.twitter.com/qcGVbCstQd
— 🇨🇮 Sickos Committee 🇮🇪 (@SickosCommittee) September 23, 2023
Colandrea brings a big-time throw rate nearly double that of Muskett but takes longer to throw and has a higher average of turnover-worthy plays.
The good news for both quarterbacks is the return of Malachi Fields. The wideout averaged 1.9 yards per route run in 2023 and contributed to a rank of 80th in terms of Virginia's passing explosives.
Cavaliers to Lean on Ground Game
Kobe Pace joins in the backfield from Clemson, and the Cavaliers also have every offensive line starter back after the unit ranked 28th in Stuff Rate.
Defensive coordinator John Rudzinski's 3-3-5 defense also returns more experience than the national average, starting with first-team All-ACC member Jonas Sanker. The senior is a Swiss army knife for the defense, lining up in the box, as a free safety and in the slot for more than 170 snaps at each spot.
While the secondary gets a jolt of experience, the defensive line is where the questions begin. Less than 45% of pressures from last season return after the Hoos produced a pass rush rank of 125th.
Virginia will be a favorite in two spots on the schedule: Richmond and Coastal Carolina. The Cavaliers will also see short underdog spots against Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College and Pittsburgh.
The ceiling for wins lands at six — unless Elliott can surprise on the road once again. The Wahoos project at 4.1 wins, under the oddsmakers' expectations.
While the offensive line is experienced and depth exists at quarterback, there's no answer when it comes to stopping the rushing attack of opposing offenses.
Pick: Virginia Under 4.5 Wins (-120)
Born in Boston before becoming a longtime assistant coach for the New England Patriots, there might not be a better fit for Boston College than Bill O’Brien.
New Coaching Staff in Chestnut Hill
With the former Alabama offensive coordinator comes Will Lawing, an assistant of O’Brien at every stop over the past decade. The defensive coordinator hire was a bit more mysterious. Now, Tim Lewis will re-enter college football for the first time since 1994 after more recently spending time in the XFL.
Lewis is expected to field mid-FBS levels of experience on defense, but based on his most recent positions, expect a heavy box and aggressive blitz.
Former head coach Jeff Hafley's high usage of man coverage should continue with this new defensive staff.
It's also worth noting that Cam Horsley will likely continue to dominate from the interior as a fifth-year senior.
The offense already has the pieces to run O’Brien’s preferred rush-heavy 12-personnel unit. Three potential NFL Draft picks exist on an offensive line that returns 115 starts, with tackle Ozzy Trapilo ranking top-25 in terms of individual pass blockers.
Boston College finished top-30 in Havoc Allowed last year, a trend that should continue to keep defenders out of the backfield.
Offensively, quarterback Thomas Castellanos must improve after generating a 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate and a release of 2.9 seconds.
The Eagles will be heavy underdogs against half the schedule, including Florida State, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Louisville, SMU and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Boston College will be a comfortable favorite over Duquesne, Michigan State, Western Kentucky and Pitt.
The coin-flip games come against Virginia and Syracuse. Boston College must win both to eclipse the market number.
The Eagles will struggle against Virginia’s returning pass-catchers, while the Orange have better units at every level of the offense.
Pick: Boston College Under 5 Wins (-130)
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Head coach Brent Key won seven games in his first season at Georgia Tech, a number that hasn't been hit since the Paul Johnson era. Not only did Key get the Yellow Jackets back into the postseason, but Georgia Tech also covered eight games and won four conference games as outright underdogs.
With a market win total well below the 2023 results, the biggest question is if the new coaching regime can stay consistent in winning.
Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner was one of the most sought-after coaches in the market at the end of 2022 but returns to Atlanta for a second season.
The offense brings 80% of experience back thanks to the combination of quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes.
The offensive line also returns 128 starts with tackle Jordan Williams and center Weston Franklin looking to play at the next level.
JAMAL HAYNES WITH A STELLAR JUKE MOVE FOR A 48 YARD TOUCHDOWN[ #StingEmpic.twitter.com/LOenlIEffn
— Georgia Tech Coverage (@gtcoverage) November 4, 2023
The Yellow Jackets are not as fortunate in the experience department on the defensive side, returning less than 50% across the board in tackles, pressures and pass breakups.
The front seven has been decimated with experience, using a combination of reserves, injuries and portal pickups. Defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci joins from Duke, hailing from the growing coaching tree of Mike Elko.
The new 4-2-5 defense will have to improve on bottom-15 ranks in Line Yards and Success Rate.
Tough Schedule Will Hinder Yellow Jackets
The schedule should precipitate some upsets in November, as two of Tech's three bye weeks come in the final month of the season. The biggest issue is an upgraded strength of schedule that's the ninth-toughest of all FBS teams.
Georgia Tech will be a minimum touchdown underdog in seven games, drawing all the top teams in the conference, along with Notre Dame and Georgia. It will also be a favorite against Georgia State, VMI and Duke.
For the Yellow Jackets to eclipse their win total, Key must win additional games against Syracuse and NC State. With a large dip expected on defense, Key could be in for a long season.
Pick: Georgia Tech Under 5 Wins (+100)
New head coach Fran Brown brings plenty of market respect after serving on Georgia's defensive staff for two years.
The offense will feature an NFL flavor, as coordinator Jeff Nixon was a former running back coach for the New York Giants.
While Texas A&M's Elijah Robinson and Buffalo's Robert Wright each have the co-coordinator title, Brown is expected to build out the Orange defense in a manner similar to Georgia.
Syracuse's McCord/Ross-Simmons Connection
Syracuse has one of the heaviest returns in experience on offense, boosted by transfer quarterback Kyle McCord from Ohio State. The fourth-year quarterback posted a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Buckeyes last year. However, upon further inspection, his big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays were nearly even.
The great news for the Orange is the number of weapons for McCord, particularly with the return of tight end Oronde Gadsden II and his 93 targets from 2022.
Justus Ross-Simmons also joins from Colorado State. A lightning bolt at the wideout position, Ross-Simmons gives McCord a home-run hitter in their first year together.
the holding penalty won’t stop me from firing off this Justus Ross-Simmons clip
you’re a special talent @ross_justus
— Liam Blutman (@Blutman27) September 17, 2023
None of the three levels on defense are expected to be top-10 units in the ACC, giving the staff plenty of room for improvement.
The linebacker unit is easily the best on the team, led by senior Marlowe Wax and nickel Justin Barron. Both ranked as the top two tacklers from a season ago with a combined total of 160.
The pass rush finished 124th in 2023, and the Orange don't field much experience at tackle or right edge.
Fade New-Look Orange?
The schedule features plenty of toss-ups. Syracuse projects to have five spreads within six points.
Three of the coin-flip games come in the conference against Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, all of which are coming off a bye week.
A trip to UNLV precedes a road trip to NC State. Along with the game against the Wolfpack, Virginia Tech and Miami are the other toughest games on the schedule.
To get over the current win total, Syracuse would have to win eight of its nine remaining games on the schedule. While there's plenty of momentum for Brown, exceeding seven wins is highly improbable with a projected win total of 6.2.
Pick: Syracuse Under 7 Wins (+100)
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Despite a loss in the famous Pop-Tarts Bowl, head coach Dave Doeren had one of his most successful seasons in Raleigh with nine wins.
The coaching staff remains in place for Doeren’s 12th season at NC State, as Robert Anae will have a new signal-caller on offense and Tony Gibson looks to replace a legendary Wolfpack linebacker.
NC State Begins Grayson McCall Era
There has only been one answer as to who the best quarterback in the Group of Five has been since the COVID-19 pandemic: Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall.
New schemes and injuries played a part in 2023, but the sixth-year senior has an 88:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio and twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays.
McCall also brings a set of wheels that were used often in the Chanticleers' RPO offense. McCall amassed 786 yards rushing on scrambles and another 546 off of designed calls.
NC State QB Grayson McCall made the Maxwell Award watch list— an honor that recognizes the best player in college football. 👀
— The Wolfpacker (@TheWolfpacker) July 29, 2024
McCall will have one of the most explosive slot receivers in the ACC in Kevin "KC" Concepcion, who averaged 2.3 yards per route run as a freshman last season.
Meanwhile, the transfer of Jordan Waters from Duke answers the shallow depth concerns at running back.
The offensive line just misses out on 100 career starts even with the transfer of Zeke Correll from Notre Dame, but Anae’s playbook should be heavily expanded thanks to having McCall under center.
Wolfpack Will Have Menacing Defense
Defensively, Gibson's 3-3-5 is one of the most menacing schemes in college football, but the loss of Bednarik Award winner Payton Wilson simply cannot be replaced.
The good news comes in the secondary with one of the more talented groups in the ACC starting with cornerback Aydan White. The fifth-year senior put opposing wideouts on an island, generating seven pass breakups and four interceptions.
NC State's conference title chances may be decided in the first conference game — a trip to Clemson on Sept. 21. Famously known as the Textile Bowl, the Wolfpack haven't won in Memorial Stadium since 2002. The Tigers nearly project as two-touchdown favorites.
The season ends with two highly competitive games on the road against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. NC State is an ACC dark-horse contender, but it will need a heroic effort to reach six wins in the conference.
Pick: NC State ACC Win Total Under 5.5 (-120)
Justin Wilcox rebounded in 2023, getting Cal to a bowl game for the first time since 2019. As the ACC era begins, the Bears return a heavy amount of experience on offense with mid-FBS levels on defense.
Wilcox will have more travel than ever before, as Cal will make four separate trips to the Eastern Time Zone before ending the season in the state of Texas.
The bigger question is if the talent on this roster can take the next step forward after a 6-7 season that ended with a loss to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl.
How Will Cal Transition Into ACC?
Former Louisiana-Monroe and North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers makes his way to Berkeley, posting 53 passing touchdowns against 15 interceptions. The fifth-year senior is no stranger to the RPO, generating just over 700 yards apiece on the ground from scrambles and designed run calls.
The quarterback fits the system of promoted offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch, formerly the offensive line coach and run game coordinator.
The Bears will also bring one of the best Pac-12 running backs to the ACC on Day 1 in Jaydn Ott.
College Football’s Fastest Players of the Week:
6. @CalFootball RB Jaydn Ott (@THEJAYDNOTT) 21.1 mph #ReelSpeed#GoBears@CoachAT23
🔗 https://t.co/eQpG3v2547pic.twitter.com/SNjJ2oHy5v
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 31, 2023
Ott brings breakaway speed and a bit of elusiveness, averaging 3.3 yards after contact while generating 10-plus yard gains on 16% of rushing attempts.
The good news for Cal is the experience on the offensive line, which retains more than 100 starts from the players that fill the two-deep depth chart.
The defense projects to be in the middle of the ACC rankings at all three levels, with safety Craig Woodson returning as the leading tackler. Defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon must see production when opponents get into scoring position after Cal ranked 122nd last season in Finishing Drives.
A strict 2-4-5 defense adds Marcus Harris from Idaho, a former first-team All-American at the FCS level.
The Bears finished in the bottom 10 of all coverage units in on-target allowed, a measurement of receivers catching the ball in stride between the numbers.
Cal will be a favorite in three nonconference games against UC Davis, San Diego State and Oregon State. While travel will be an issue for so many East Coast trips, Cal will come off a bye week to host Miami in “Berserkeley.”
The Bears will be favored in five ACC games, including Pitt, Wake Forest, Syracuse and Stanford. With an ACC win total projection closer to four wins, the best bet comes in Cal beating oddsmakers' expectations in its new conference.
Pick: Cal ACC Win Total Over 3.5 (-110)
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If success is defined by making bowl games, former national champion head coach Mack Brown has been uber-triumphant since taking over at North Carolina in 2019. Brown has led the Tar Heels to five consecutive bowl games and a 2022 appearance in the ACC Championship.
But with success comes change, as North Carolina will field new coordinators and an experience mark well under the national average.
Chip Lindsey has multiple Power 4 stops in his career, also serving as Troy's head coach from 2019-21. With his most recent stops as offensive coordinator at UCF and Auburn, there's every expectation that North Carolina will emulate a Gus Malzahn wildcat package.
Max Johnson transfers in after previous stops at Texas A&M and LSU to battle Jacolby Criswell, but whichever quarterback wins the position will have the primary goal of feeding running back Omarion Hampton.
When #Clemson CB Nate Wiggins was asked about his chase down of Omarion Hampton that led to a touchback, his response was simple:
“I’m a fast guy.” pic.twitter.com/aFzSYaD3Mw
— Grayson Mann (@gray_mann21) November 19, 2023
Hampton averaged an outrageous 4.3 yards after contact while creating 67 missed tackles last season. The junior also caught 29 balls out of the backfield at an average of 7.7 yards a catch despite an average depth of target of negative 1.3 yards.
The running back will need every bit of elusiveness, as only center Willie Lampkin returns on the offensive line.
Slot receiver Nate McCollum is expected to be the hot read for Johnson in the passing game when pressure persists. The senior led the team in targets while generating a healthy 1.8 yards per route run.
The biggest question may be Johnson's ability to operate an RPO offense, an issue that could dip into an inexperienced depth chart at quarterback.
After a year away from college football, former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins will take over as defensive coordinator. The Tar Heels were in need of a change after ranking outside the top 100 in numerous rush defense categories while generating minimal Havoc.
Collins ran nickel packages at Georgia Tech in combination with exclusive Cover 3 and quarters coverage for the defense.
The linebackers will be the most important pieces in the scheme, as Power Echols and Kaimon Rucker were two of the top three tacklers from last season.
How to Back Tar Heels
The math supports North Carolina being favored in their first eight games of the season, with the opener against Minnesota being the closest to a coin-flip.
The great news for the Tar Heels' offensive line in the opener is the expected slide for the Gophers' defensive line. However, North Carolina futures are expected to rest on the offensive line's ability to provide space for Hampton.
UNC will be a touchdown or more favorite against Duke, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest and Boston College.
Those six teams all project to have middle-of-the-pack or bottom-tier units from a defensive line perspective, making a conference win total the best wager on the board.
Pick: North Carolina ACC Win Total Over 4.5 Wins (-115)
Similar to Ole Miss, the Miami Hurricanes dominated the transfer portal to build an all-star roster.
The coaching staff remains in check, as both offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson and defensive coordinator Lance Guidry enter their second season under head coach Mario Cristobal.
With a manageable schedule that dodges one of the toughest teams in the ACC, Miami has a chance to reach 10 wins for the first time since 2017.
The offensive roster reads more of a who’s who at every position for a college football fantasy draft.
Ward Highlight's Miami's Transfer Portal Additions
Quarterback Cam Ward joins from Washington State and may be the most electrifying player to hit the program since Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson was on the Canes defense.
Including two seasons at Incarnate Word, Ward has posted 135 all-purpose touchdowns in four years. With the good comes the bad, however, as Ward has committed 46 fumbles and 30 interceptions in that same time frame.
The fifth-year senior has the ability to take over the field against any competition, pouncing on defenses that cannot tackle in space.
Is new Miami QB Cam Ward the most likely QB to make a Jayden Daniels-like run to the Heisman and the top of the draft?
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) July 5, 2024
The Hurricanes will also pound the rock behind another Pac-12 transfer in running back Damien Martinez. The former Beaver averaged 3.8 yards after contact last season, losing only two fumbles in 356 career rushing attempts.
The portal was not needed at receiver, as The U returns a total of 209 targets from Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. However, that didn't stop Cristobal from pulling an additional 800 yards of receiving experience with Houston transfer Samuel Brown.
The defensive line might be the most talented and experienced in the ACC, returning tackle Simeon Barrow and edge Rueben Bain. Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa returns as the leading tackler on a defense that finished top-20 in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and pass rush.
Canes' Only Question Lies in Secondary
Experience questions come at only one unit on the entire roster, as the secondary loses a few key pieces. Cornerback Damari Brown was solid as a freshman, allowing only two touchdowns when targeted 32 times last year.
Slot corner Mishael Powell transferred in from Washington as well, bringing four pass breakups and three interceptions from the Huskies' run to the National Championship.
The toughest games of the season will come in coin-flip scenarios against Florida, Louisville and Florida State. The Hurricanes will come off a bye week against the Cardinals, while Florida State will be on back-to-back travel off Duke when visiting Coral Gables on Oct. 26.
When looking at the quarterbacks for each ACC team, neither Louisville's Tyler Shough nor Florida State's DJ Uiagalelei have shown the ability to be consistent in the deep passing game.
With Miami’s only projected weakness coming in the secondary, there's every reason to believe the Canes will compete for their first-ever ACC Championship.
Pick: Miami to Make ACC Championship (+200)
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The preseason betting market has spoken, and Virginia Tech is the leading dark horse to win the ACC.
There are plenty of positives for the program after more than doubling its win total in head coach Brent Pry’s second season.
Equipped with a rising star at quarterback and one of the most solid offensive lines in the conference, the Hokies ended the 2023 season with a boat race of Tulane in the Military Bowl.
Virginia Tech to Roll on Offense?
Offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen made strides with his ground-heavy offense, utilizing plenty of inside zone to slip inside the top 70 in Line Yards.
Quality Drives and Havoc Allowed numbers improved across the board from the 2022 season, particularly in the area of pass explosives. Quarterback Kyron Drones led a Hokies passing attack that landed top-20 in Pass EPA, generating a 17:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Virginia Tech's Offense in 2024 is going to be electric
Kyron Drones looks like a star at QB
Bhayshul Tuten is a legit NFL-caliber RB
The WR Core Is Stacked⬇️
-Ali Jennings
-Jaylin Lane
-Da'Quan Felton
-Ayden Greene
-Stephen Gosnell#VT | #Hokies
pic.twitter.com/NAuhqGkNbP— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) May 8, 2024
The bump in explosives may have been due to the targets surrounding the quarterback. Drones finished the season with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, putting a microscope on a season tally of three interceptions.
The two most explosive receivers in wideout Da’Quan Felton and slot Jaylin Lane return after posting at least 1.8 yards per route run.
The offensive line returns more snaps than a season ago thanks to right tackle Montavious Cunningham and his 743 snaps joining all five starters. With max protection expected, Drones should see a 35% pressure rate start to fall.
More importantly, the third-year signal-caller must improve his efficiency on wide receiver screens, go routes and dumps into the flats.
Expect an Aggressive Defense
On the other side, defensive coordinator Chris Marve will get more than the national average back in terms of experience.
Led by tackle Aeneas Peebles and edge Antwaun Powell-Ryland, the defensive line will be one of the top four in the conference.
Just like Key’s defenses at Penn State, the Hokies are ultra-aggressive in the Havoc department, finishing top-25 in that area a season ago.
The strict 4-2-5 terrorized opponents' ground games and aerial attacks, limiting Success Rate and explosives through the air.
However, a stark contrast in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives Allowed qualifies as the direct opposite of "bend-don’t-break." The Hokies finished 30th in Quality Drives, which is an opponent's ability to score, create a 10-plus play drive, cover 50 yards or be on the field for three minutes.
The complete opposite happened when opponents reached the 40-yard line. Virginia Tech ranked 128th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Hokies project at 8.4 wins on the season, the main driver that sent their opening win total through the number of 8 to the current 8.5. The floor is an eight-win season, while the ceiling is 10 wins.
Virginia Tech will be a minimum 6-point favorite in 10 games but will be a heavy underdog against Clemson and Miami. A seven-win season would require losses in their shortest spots as a favorite against Rutgers, Syracuse and Duke.
There are two options left to take advantage of the projected boundaries: a conference win total or a juiced 8-win total where offered.
Considering only two games are out of reach, road trips to Stanford, Syracuse and Duke should not shift the Hokies' expectations in the ACC.
Pick: Virginia Tech ACC Win Total Over 5.5 (+110)
The first win total out of the gate this past spring in the Action App came on SMU's over. All the ingredients are in place for head coach Rhett Lashlee to make waves as the Mustangs enter their first season in the ACC.
Pieces Falling Into Place for Mustangs
Both sides of the ball return some of the nation's highest numbers in experience. SMU finished top-15 in the transfer portal rankings during the 2022 and 2023 window, beefing up trenches on both sides of the ball before moving to the Power 4.
The Mustangs will also potentially bring the most lethal quarterback and wide receiver combination in the conference.
The offense starts with quarterback Preston Stone, who finished 2023 with a 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio while nearly tripling the number of big-time throws compared to turnover-worthy plays.
Wideouts Romello Brinson and Moochie Dixon both return, with each providing more than two yards per route run, which is considered explosive.
Workhorse running back Jaylan Knighton returns to the zone-read rushing attack, while the offensive line's two-deep returns 120 starts.
The Mustangs offense will be hot from the opening kick against Nevada.
My favorite 2025 QB Prospect? That man Preston Stone. pic.twitter.com/UX5Gb2ezsx
— The Mock Draft Guy ™️ (@MockDraftGuyYT) May 26, 2024
Why SMU Will Find Success in ACC
SMU's defensive numbers were the best in FBS, although an asterisk might be needed considering it played an AAC schedule. The Mustangs finished top-15 in nearly every defensive category, from limiting chunk plays to creating Havoc.
Coordinator Scott Symons' nickel package generated a moderate blitz rate of 27% while utilizing plenty of Cover 3 on coverages that called for zone on 70% of defensive snaps.
The star of the defense is edge Elijah Roberts, who nearly tripled every other defender in total pressures. The one-man Havoc crew missed just six tackles in 255 opponent rushing attempts, solidifying an SMU defense that's ready to jump into ACC play.
The schedule might be the most friendly for any team making the jump to a power conference from the Group of Five. A number of top-tier ACC teams are missing from SMU's schedule, including Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina.
The projection for the Ponies comes in at 9.7 wins, generating an 8.4% chance to win the conference.
Any ACC Championship number above 15-1 holds value, but there's still plenty of room to run on the market win total. With the current number being heavily juiced, any alternate win total over wagers should be considered.
Pick: SMU Over 8 Wins (-150)
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Jeff Brohm's inaugural season at Louisville could not have gone any better, finishing with 10 wins and an appearance in the ACC Championship.
The former Bobby Petrino assistant fell into one of the best coaching spots in 2023 with a soft conference schedule and maximum roster experience.
Louisville Due for Regression?
With a dip in experience and a slightly tougher schedule in 2024, the Cardinals could be due for regression.
Journeyman Tyler Shough transfers in for a sixth season, and he's expected to be the starter for his third Power 4 program. Injuries have followed Shough every season, as he has never attempted more than 179 passes in a season.
Career numbers show a dead-even big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate at 3.9%, decent arm strength and nearly 1,000 yards of rushing that add to the potential of injury.
With only Chris Bell and his 43 targets returning, Brohm hit the portal to find fourth-team All-American receiver Caullin Lacy. The former South Alabama weapon weaves between slot and wideout while obtaining a career mark of 2.1 yards per route run.
South Alabama WR Caullin Lacy (@CaullinLacy) reached a max speed of 20.1 mph on this 57-yard TD pass from Carter Bradley (@carterbradley10). #ReelSpeed
🔗 https://t.co/orrD059ykPpic.twitter.com/F0KGdRQQnn
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 18, 2023
The portal was blasted for trench players, as Brohm inherited nearly a half-dozen players with more than 150 career starts.
Questions in the backfield remain unanswered with Maurice Turner expected to start over a number of freshmen. Turner has one career touchdown on 125 attempts, supporting a lower 3.1 yards after contact mark.
Another Favorable Schedule for Cardinals
Like 2023, the schedule gives the Cardinals plenty of favors. Louisville projects as a double-digit favorite in seven games, with Notre Dame and Clemson being the only teams lined as heavy favorites against the Cardinals.
Smaller spread games exist against SMU and Miami, both of which come to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
The regular-season finale against Kentucky serves as a perfect backup opportunity for a win total wager. Projected as a coin-flip, Louisville will have a minimum of eight wins if Brohm takes care of business as a favorite.
Injuries are impossible to predict, but a healthy Shough for the entire season calls for an over with a late-season hedge against the Wildcats.
Pick: Louisville Over 8.5 Wins (+115)
Dabo Swinney made his feelings about the current free agency in college football known, stating that player development and retention are what keeps Clemson from the portal.
In theory, a group of blue-chip players from the high school ranks that stay with the Tigers for the length of their college career can keep Clemson on the cusp of the national scene.
Clemson Not on the Decline
In fact, there's no drop in talent on the current roster despite zero acquisitions from the transfer portal, tabling the talk of Clemson’s downfall for another season.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik returns for a third season, generating nearly double the amount of turnover-worthy plays versus big-time throws. While the touchdown numbers are the focus for most other handicappers, it's tough to ignore a turnover-worthy play rate that dropped from 3.9% to just 3.5% in his sophomore season.
With Garrett Riley two years removed from coaching TCU in the national title game, the offense must improve before a house-cleaning move comes in December.
The great news for Clemson this season is a strong offensive line for running back Phil Mafah, who's expected to take on the entire workload with the departure of Will Shipley.
The senior may redefine the term "breakaway" in terms of rushing gains after posting 3.7 yards after contact while creating 40 missed tackles. Of all returning FBS running backs, Mafah ranks top-10 in breakaway rate — a calculation of 15-yard gains.
Phil Mafah 😤 pic.twitter.com/KAqDdZ8xdH
— Clemson Highlights (@ClemsonRT) August 9, 2024
The staple of Clemson has always been the defense, as coordinator Wes Goodwin has kept the numbers stable after the departure of Brent Venables.
The 4-2-5 defense with heavy Cover 1 will be led by the back seven, including linebacker Barrett Carter and corner Avieon Terrell.
The defensive line would only take a step back because long-term players in the rotation are now expected to start. Edge Peter Woods and tackles DeMonte Capehart and Payton Page were some of the highest-rated recruits at their position.
Can Tigers Win ACC?
After the season-opening game against Georgia, there's only one roadblock that could add another digit to the loss column: a road trip to Florida State on Oct. 5, where the Seminoles project as small favorites.
Other than that, the Tigers will be home and coming off a bye when NC State visits, while road trips to Wake Forest and Pitt aren't expected to be competitive. Nonconference games against Appalachian State and South Carolina could present some competition, but neither has an offensive line capable of beating Clemson's defensive front.
With Miami and SMU off the schedule, plus Louisville coming to Memorial Stadium on back-to-back travel, there's every expectation that Clemson returns to the top of the ACC at an affordable market price.
Pick: Clemson to Win ACC (+390)
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Everything lined up for a Florida State national title run last season. The Seminoles returned one of the highest marks in experience and beat every rival on the way to an undefeated season.
However, an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis put the College Football Playoff selection committee in a pretzel, as the group ultimately decided to send a beaten-down Seminoles roster to the Orange Bowl instead of the playoff.
Florida State Looks to Bounce Back
Head coach Mike Norvell is expected to pick up the pieces with less experience and a tougher schedule to avoid a post-playoff snub hangover.
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei returns to the ACC after a number of years at Clemson and a pit stop at Oregon State. Backed by one of the best offensive lines and running backs in the nation with the Beavers, Uiagalelei produced his best passing season yet thanks to a bump in big-time throws and an average depth of target that climbed 2.5 yards.
The new Noles signal-caller walks into a solid situation with an offensive line led by future NFL players in tackle Darius Washington and center Maurice Smith.
The running game was suspect a season ago with a low ranking in Line Yards, but running back Roydell Williams transfers in from Alabama and should contribute heavily.
The defense will field one of the nastiest secondaries in the conference despite the loss of cornerback Renardo Green. Former Virginia cornerback Fentrell Cypress II will enter his second season with the Seminoles, bringing 15 pass breakups over the past two years.
Safety Shyheim Brown and linebacker DJ Lundy return as the top tacklers, but the Seminoles return only 40% of stops — defined by PFF as a tackle that constitutes a failure by the offense.
Florida State will be under a microscope when it comes to one-on-one tackling in space.
The season win total, conference win total and odds to win the ACC are all properly priced. However, there are discrepancies in the Action Network projections compared to the current market offering in single-game situations.
I'm going to target the game against Georgia Tech, which is expected to field one of the worst run defenses under a new coordinator. While the Week 1 line comes in at FSU -12.5, we project it closer to -17.
A Game of the Year against Miami will be a barn-burner, but the number should see Florida State as a field-goal favorite. Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward will have to deal with a Florida State defense that finished third nationally in Defensive Havoc.
Pick: Game of the Year: Florida State -12.5 vs. Georgia Tech (Aug. 24) · Game of the Year: Florida State PK vs. Miami (Oct. 26)
ACC Best Bets & Futures
- Duke: ACC Win Total Under 2.5 (-130)
- Stanford: Under 3.5 (+135) · Stanford ML +270 vs. TCU (Game of the Year)
- Pitt: Under 5.5 (-120)
- Wake Forest: ACC Win Total Under 2.5 (-110)
- Virginia: Under 4.5 (-120)
- Boston College: Under 5 (-130)
- Georgia Tech: Under 5 (+100)
- Syracuse: Under 7 (+100)
- NC State: ACC Win Total Under 5.5 (-120)
- Cal: ACC Win Total Over 3.5 (-110)
- North Carolina: ACC Win Total Over 4.5 Wins (-115)
- Miami: To Make ACC Championship (+200)
- Virginia Tech: ACC Win Total Over 5.5 (+110)
- SMU: Over 8 (-150)
- Louisville: Over 8.5 (+115)
- Clemson: To Win ACC (+390)
- Florida State: FSU -12.5 vs. Georgia Tech (Game of the Year) · FSU PK vs. Miami (Game of the Year)
