LAS VEGAS — There was a moment in recent college football history when the Big 12’s future was in jeopardy.
Oklahoma and Texas had decided to leave the conference for the SEC before media days in July 2022, sending commissioner Brett Yormark to the podium with talking points on the future strength of the conference.
Bedlam would be coming to an end, while Red River would move to the SEC. There was a distinct possibility two years ago that the Big 12 would become defunct, ravaged by other power conferences looking for big television deals.
Yormark went from the hunted to the hunter overnight as Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff continued to stall on a new media rights deal.
The Big 12 welcomed the additions of Arizona State, Utah, Arizona and Colorado a season after merging with Cincinnati, BYU, Houston and UCF from the AAC a year before.
Not only is the Big 12 healthy, but the national footprint is big enough to recruit coast to coast and thrive against the SEC and Big Ten.
This is the most competitive conference in all of the Power Four, as more than half of the teams have a realistic shot at winning a conference title in 2024. This article will take a look at each team's outlook in several available markets, including win totals, conference odds and Games of the Year.
First, let's look at our conference win totals that are the basis for projecting the true price of a program's chance to win the new Big 12.
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Arizona State Sun Devils
Big 12: +11000 · Win Total: 4.5
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham enters his second year in the position despite facing another Year 0 situation.
The 34-year-old took to the transfer portal heavily to complete his 2023 roster, as Arizona State continues to have limited scholarships available in the post-Herm Edwards era.
The commitment of quarterback Jaden Rashada gave the Sun Devils hope for the future entering the Big 12. However, that didn't last long, as Rashada entered the portal and committed to Georgia.
The 2023 season ended with three victories, including two upsets as an underdog in Pac-12 play against Washington State and UCLA.
The blows continued to pile up in the spring after Rashada left, as leading receiver Elijhah Badger departed for Florida.
Arizona State Looks to Move on After Departures
Rumors around camp suggested Michigan State transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt had won the starting position under a new offensive coordinator. However, Leavitt will be challenged in fall camp by former Georgia Tech and Nebraska quarterback Jeff Sims.
Former UNLV head coach and Oregon offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo will take over play-calling duties for Arizona State. Arroyo's offenses featured a heavy commitment to the run at previous stops, keeping former quarterbacks like Justin Herbert from throwing in standard downs.
The current Sun Devils configuration may not fit what their new coordinator will want to execute.
The strength of the team comes in the form of center Leif Fautanu and running back Cam Skattebo, who ran plenty of wildcat a season ago. Arroyo’s run concepts have been heavily centered on outside zone, but he now inherits a group with limited experience at guard and tackle.
Defensive coordinator Brian Ward comes back with more returning experience than the national average, but Arizona State struggled defensively to stop the chains last year.
The Sun Devils will exclusively run a 4-2-5 personnel after ranking bottom-15 in coverage and Line Yards a season ago. More than half of the defensive two-deep comes via the portal, as the unit looks to climb out of a bottom-five rank in Opponent Quality Drives.
A quick view of the schedule may knock Dillingham’s team out of the conference race before it starts, as Utah and Kansas State both have bye weeks before playing the Sun Devils.
Arizona State projects to be favored just once in 2024 — a season-opening matchup at home against Wyoming. There are a number of games in which ASU is projected as an underdog of less than a touchdown, such as matchups against Mississippi State, Texas State, BYU and Cincinnati.
However, half of Arizona State’s schedule projects as a two-touchdown favorite, making the under the play.
Pick: Arizona State Under 4.5 (-150 or Better)
The jump from FBS Independent to the Big 12 may have been a bigger curve than expected for BYU last season.
The Cougars had posted a winning record in 17 of their previous 18 seasons before 2023. Then, last season, they suffered a steep decline with no bowl appearance and only two conference victories.
BYU didn't have the depth to stay healthy and compete through the middle portion of the schedule but came within a possession of beating Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the final two games of the regular season.
Head coach Kilani Sitake has placed an emphasis on the trenches on both sides of the ball this offseason, including new position coaches and a dip into the portal.
Will New Additions Help Cougars?
Aaron Roderick returns as the offensive coordinator, hiring TJ Woods from Georgia Southern as the new offensive line coach. BYU consistently failed to run the ball consistently, finishing 120th in Rushing Success Rate.
Woods will look to create a tough mental fortitude for a line that returns 88 starts with heavy experience on the right side. Any improvement in the trench bodes well for running back LJ Martin, who generated 3.3 yards after contact as a freshman.
A quarterback battle is expected when camp breaks, as transfers Gerry Bohanon and McCae Hillstead join Jake Retzlaff in competition.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill saw moderate improvement on defense in terms of yards gained and points scored. A Weber State transplant, Hill implemented his 3-3-5 scheme with a heavier call on man coverage over zone.
BYU finished 52nd in opponent points per scoring attempt and 80th in Quality Drives.
Ultimately, an improvement in Havoc from the defensive line is the goal for Hill in 2024. The Cougars ranked near dead last in tackles for loss and fell to bottom-10 nationally in tackle grading, per PFF.
Half of BYU’s sacks came from senior defensive end Tyler Batty, a cornerstone piece for Hill to create more chaos.
The conference schedule-makers did no favors for BYU in 2024, saddling the Cougars with three of the toughest teams in the conference.
Oklahoma State is set to visit Provo on a Friday night after a bye week, while BYU will travel to Utah to renew the Holy War. Then, Sitake must get his team to rebound after an emotional game against the Utes with Kansas on deck.
The nonconference schedule doesn't provide any cupcakes either after opening with Southern Illinois on Aug. 31. BYU will travel in consecutive weeks to SMU and Wyoming, with both coming before the Cougars' first home conference game against Kansas State.
There's every expectation that Hill will continue to improve an impuissant defense with more chaotic play from the front seven. However, BYU's quarterback play may not finish in the top half of the conference.
Added depth will be paramount in the thick of the Big 12 schedule. Our projections call for BYU to win 3.8 games, well under the market total of 4.5.
Pick: BYU Under 4.5 (-130 or Better)
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The 2024 season is critical regarding the relationship between Baylor and head coach Dave Aranda.
The former LSU defensive coordinator won a national title in Baton Rouge in 2019 before taking the head position with the Bears and winning the Big 12 in 2021. Then, in 2022, Baylor struggled in an Armed Forces Bowl loss before racking up just three wins a season ago.
Aranda approached the offseason with a number of changes on both sides of the ball in hopes of getting the program on the right track.
Aranda Returning to His Roots With Baylor's Schemes
Aranda will take over play-calling duties for the defense as the scheme and blitz rate undergo revisions.
Baylor had implemented a strict 3-3-5 personnel a season ago, but expect Aranda to return to his roots this time around. In 2019, the LSU defense struggled with tackling and a complicated playbook before a midseason renaissance that increased sacks and decreased mistakes.
Aranda called a bevy of personnel, with dozens of plays run in 2-4-5, 1-4-6 and 3-2-6. Baylor's 37% blitz rate from 2023 should decrease to 25%, the rate of blitz LSU utilized in 2019.
The defensive line is certainly an area of focus after losing quality snaps, but Aranda did refill from the portal to generate a pass rush.
Why Baylor's Offense Will Look Different
The offense will go under the most dramatic change of any Big 12 team. The heavy ground-and-pound unit that won the Big 12 Championship will be replaced with the Air Raid.
New offensive coordinator Jake Spavital comes to Waco after a year in the same role with California. Before a year in Berkeley, Spavital was head coach at Texas State with an offense that celebrated all things Air Raid.
There will also be a sharp change in tempo for Baylor, which is expected to move from 27 seconds per play to 24. For comparison, Baylor ranked 59th in tempo compared to Cal’s rank of 14th last season.
Baylor has the wide receiver unit to implement a potent passing attack. The best of the group is Monaray Baldwin, coming off a season with 71 targets. The senior is highly explosive, averaging 2.3 yards per route run on a Baylor offense that was centered around the rush.
Quarterback Dequan Finn had been under center for Toledo since 2019, electing to spend his sixth season in Waco. The graduate transfer's game features plenty of turbulence, generating 46 big-time throws to 45 turnover-worthy plays in his college career.
Finn can extend plays with his legs, as he has posted over 2,000 rushing yards split between scrambles and designed runs.
However, Finn has been inconsistent with turnovers on the ground as well, rushing for 25 touchdowns with 15 fumbles lost while at Toledo.
Baylor also has plenty of work to do up from after the offensive line finished 106th in sacks allowed.
Tough Schedule Hinders Bears
The schedule features five conference road games, so it's not necessarily conducive for a bounce-back season for Aranda's team. The Bears will also travel to Utah, a game that was scheduled before the Pac-12 migration and doesn't count against the conference standings.
Although Baylor has one of the highest numbers in TARP, the Bears have too many questions in a season where the head coach can't afford a mistake.
Our projection calls for Baylor to win 4.5 games, with spots as a favorite over Tarleton State and Air Force.
Although the full-season under is in play, the wider variance for the Bears' schedule comes in conference play. Five games on the Big 12 docket project within a possession, with double-digit underdog spots against West Virginia, Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
Expected scheme changes on both sides of the ball, tempo adjustments and a high-variance quarterback provide plenty of red flags entering 2024.
A conference win total under holds value, as Baylor projects to win 2.7 games in the Big 12.
With an Air Raid offense, the biggest challenges come in the form of winnable conference games against TCU, Colorado and Kansas. Those three teams boast back seven units that are expected to finish in the top half of the conference.
Pick: Baylor Conference Win Total Under 3.5 (-115 · DraftKings)
Two seasons ago, Action Network team led the national charge on TCU being the surprise team in college football.
The Horned Frogs' eventual national title loss resulted in a massive hangover in 2023 after they lost plenty of talent at the skill positions and played a tougher schedule.
The offense struggled in scoring opportunities, while the defense fell outside the top 100 in almost every analytic.
Change hit the coaching staff in December, as defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie was dismissed. Head coach Sonny Dykes then turned to former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos to lead his brand of defense in Fort Worth.
TCU will move from Gillespie's 3-3-5 to Avalos' 4-2-5, with a similar blitz rate expected based on past defensive tendencies for both coordinators.
With the secondary continuing to play a heavy amount of quarters and Cover 1, the focal point becomes the necessary increase of defensive linemen.
TCU may have the depth to fill the two deep on the defensive line thanks to the portal, but the void created by nose tackle Damonic Williams' transfer to Oklahoma was not filled. Plenty will be expected of Houston nose tackle transfer Hakeem Ajijolaiya.
TCU Offense Looks to Bounce Back
Like the defense, the offense has plenty of questions in the trench. The Horned Frogs lose nearly every starting offensive lineman, returning just 13 combined starts to left guard and right tackle.
The portal haul increased the number of able bodies to fill the two-deep depth chart, with Alabama transfer James Brockermeyer bringing the highest pedigree.
Incumbent quarterback Josh Hoover is expected to lead the offense despite missing spring practice. Hoover finished 2023 with a near-even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays, suffering most in pressured dropbacks with a 46% completion rate.
The trenches could make or break TCU's entire season. Avalos' defense is dependent on four pass-rushers, and Hoover’s efficiency drops with a crowded pocket.
The Frogs also lack experience in the special teams department, as TCU is expected to field freshmen at both kicker and punter.
The schedule is a good news and bad news situation. The Frogs have five Big 12 home games but must travel to both Utah and Kansas.
A Game of the Year situation occurs Sept. 21 when TCU travels to SMU. There's no love lost between Dykes and his former employer, as the Horned Frogs have beaten the Mustangs in two consecutive seasons. SMU will be coming off a bye week, while TCU slips in the nonconference game between UCF and Kansas.
The Frogs fall into a similar situation on Nov. 23, coming off a bye week to host an Arizona team with that could look ahead to the Territorial Cup.
There are numerous opportunities to get wagers down on TCU, starting with the win total under. With fresh faces in the trenches on both sides of the ball and a mixture of freshmen on special teams, unexpected losses are bound to pop up.
The best bet comes in a Game of the Year rivalry against SMU — a nonconference game sandwiched between two high-profile Big 12 games. If the Game of the Year market doesn't provide a suitable option, the under is worth playing through seven.
Pick: TCU Under 7.5 (-140 or Better) · Game of the Year: SMU -7 or Better (Sept. 21)
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Even Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen needed help to achieve greatness. When it comes to Colorado, quarterback Shedeur Sanders and defensive back Travis Hunter need an assist from the rest of the roster.
Head coach Deion Sanders' second season at Colorado was the primary target in our opening Power Four win total article.
The Buffaloes never got the running game to develop in 2023, generating a top-25 rank in passing downs rate. Instead, running backs learned to catch out of the flats, while 92% of Shedeur Sanders' rushing yards came strictly from scrambles.
Colorado Once Again Leans on Portal Additions
Those issues are expected to continue in 2024 after the transfer portal supplied fresh faces for new offensive line coach Phil Loadholt.
Shedeur Sanders does it on his own 👀
Colorado (-3) ties it up pic.twitter.com/iQ7ho6Al0r
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 8, 2023
Despite the expected troubles for an offensive line featuring a true freshman at left tackle, Colorado fished plenty of talent from the portal.
Sanders receives additional weapons in the receiver room, as former Florida Atlantic target LaJohntay Wester brings an explosive 2.7 yards per route run from Boca Raton.
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur took over play-calling duties in November. The Buffaloes will now cut down on post-snap options for wide receivers while applying max protection in play-action attempts.
At full health, Colorado has the best quarterback and wide receiver unit in the Big 12.
The defense will also receive slight personnel modifications with new coordinator Robert Livingston.
The former NFL assistant with the Bengals is expected to showcase a 4-2-5 with Hunter as the nickelback. Liberty transfer cornerback Preston Hodge will be used in single outside coverage and against the slot.
We can also expect some Tampa 2 coverage, a staple in the NFL that could allow Shilo Sanders to move into the tackle box from his usual safety position.
Livingston was a winner in the portal this spring with a new set of defensive linemen inbound, including four-stars BJ Green (Arizona State) and Rayyan Buell (Ohio) leading the charge.
How EA Sports College Football 25 Impacts Colorado
The over on Colorado’s win total of 5.5 is continuing to take money, a side effect of the Sanders hype and rankings from the new EA Sports College Football video game.
Top 25 teams via @EASPORTSCollege. Pace your outrage pic.twitter.com/ioBInXJjao
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) June 28, 2024
The schedule features five conference home games, but the strongest Big 12 teams will visit Folsom Field, including Kansas State, Utah and Oklahoma State. Those matchups all come in November, meaning depth could become an issue late in the season.
The Buffaloes will also make a trip to the Bounce House on Sept. 28, where UCF will be coming off a bye week.
The plan for betting Colorado in 2024 is an extension of last season: buy CU early and fade the depth down the stretch. In 2023, the Buffs pulled off a win over TCU as nearly three-touchdown underdogs before finishing with one win in their final nine games due to a lack of depth, injuries, coaching changes and the schedule ramping up.
While the full-season under is still worth a play, mid-August may give us a six in the market.
The Week 2 Game of the Year at Nebraska serves as a great hedge piece for an under ticket. Action Network's betting power ratings make Colorado a small favorite in the game, giving value to the near-touchdown spread.
Pick: Colorado Under 5.5 (+115 or Better) · Game of the Year: Colorado +6.5 vs. Nebraska (Sept. 7)
Scott Satterfield’s transition from Louisville to Cincinnati was underwhelming, as the Bearcats finished with just two FBS wins in 2023.
The offense was one-dimensional with a 59% rush rate. Nearly all of those featured an outside zone run concept.
Running back Corey Kiner finished the season with over 1,000 rushing yards, including 26 attempts that went at least 10 yards. He also forced 53 missed tackles.
The defense didn't have the same results as the offense, finishing dead last in explosive plays allowed. The Bearcats came in at 109th in broken tackles allowed and near dead last in coverage grading, per PFF.
New defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt slides over from conference rival Iowa State. Cincinnati is expected to stay in the 3-3-5 with a Cyclones flavor that includes a roaming safety and not the corner slot.
The back seven is flush with transfers but needs to improve.
However, the biggest detriment to the Bearcats is the potential loss of key defensive lineman Dontay Corleone.
Cincinnati starting DT Dontay Corleone out indefinitely after being treated for blood clots found in his lungs. It was discovered after he reported chest discomfort & shortness of breath to UC trainers. Corleone spent a night at UC Medical Center & has been home recovering past 2…
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) June 28, 2024
“The Godfather” was a shoo-in for a first-team all-Big 12 defensive tackle spot. The scarcity of defensive interior players in college football is what made Corleone a game-changing nose tackle as he provided 17 pressures in 2023.
Now, Cincinnati will look to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks through other players.
The offense may be more balanced thanks to quarterback transfer Brendan Sorsby from Indiana. The sophomore boasted a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio but was near even in the big-time throw to turnover-worthy play department.
Sorsby struggled in downfield passing with a 28% completion rate, but his mobility generated 442 rushing yards split evenly between designed calls and scrambles a year ago.
The Bearcats pulled quality receiver talent from the portal, including an explosive 1,000-yard target in UTEP's Tyrin Smith and former Ohio State tight end Joe Royer. Xzavier Henderson also returns to the receiver stable after finishing with 98 targets and an explosive two yards per route run.
Improvement Coming for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati has four home games in Nippert Stadium during conference play, drawing two of the conference's lower-tier teams in Arizona State and Houston.
The toughest road travel will come in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas.
Luckily for the Bearcats, Cincinnati will be off for a bye week when traveling to the Bounce House on Oct. 12 — a Game of the Year against a UCF team in a hangover spot coming off a critical game at Florida.
The Bearcats will be favored by a touchdown or more in three games against Towson, Arizona State and Pitt. The projected win total comes in at 5.52, leaving no value in a market posting 5.5.
However, conference win totals provide plenty of value when looking to back the Bearcats. Games against Arizona State and Houston make Cincinnati a firm favorite, while Colorado, Texas Tech and TCU serve as winnable conference games.
Despite UCF projecting as a touchdown favorite in the aforementioned Game of the Year, Cincinnati falls into a great upset spot in Orlando.
Pick: Cincinnati Conference Win Total Over 2.5 (-160)
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Head coach Joey McGuire enters Year 3 with Texas Tech in rebuild mode.
The hype was real for the Red Raiders during the summer of 2023 when it combined a softer schedule with one of the nation's highest experience numbers. A double-overtime loss to Wyoming to open the season distinguished the Cinderella feelings, and Texas Tech ultimately needed a win over Tarleton State to make the Independence Bowl.
Fast forward to 2024, and many of its significant contributors are no longer on the roster. Offensively, the line and wide receiver units have been cleaned out, and defensively, the Red Raiders pulled one of the lowest TARP numbers.
Less than 25% of tackles and pass breakups return to a Tim DeRuyter defense that lost its biggest Havoc producers. Luckily for Tech, the portal has provided contributors in defensive lineman De’Braylon Carroll and safety Devynn Cromwell.
Red Raiders' Season Depends on Offensive Line
The offense will look to keep a starting quarterback healthy for the first time in the McGuire era.
Quarterback Behren Morton didn't have the season many expected in 2023, finishing with 11 big-time throws to 15 turnover-worthy plays. Morton did improve in a pressured pocket, as his adjusted completion percentage fell only 12% compared to a clean pocket.
The junior will be expected to get the ball down the field to Fresno State transfer Josh Kelly and five-star blue-chip recruit Micah Hudson.
The handicap on Texas Tech may come down to the ability of the portal-infused offensive line to block for running back Tahj Brooks. The senior averaged 3.4 yards after contact last season, generating an impressive 96 missed tackles.
Brooks finished fourth nationally in elusiveness — yards after contact and missed tackles forced — of all FBS running backs with at least 250 carries.
New offensive line coach Clay McGuire enters from Washington State, which, conveniently, is Texas Tech's first road opponent of the season. McGuire must improve on his numbers from last season when the Cougars sat outside the top 100 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Texas Tech's Sneaky Schedule Flaws
From a scheduling perspective, this could be the easiest home schedule in the conference. Texas Tech will host five games in Big 12 play against Arizona State, Cincinnati, Baylor, Colorado and West Virginia.
The hidden aspect of Tech's schedule is the number of teams coming in with extra rest. Baylor, Iowa State, Colorado and Oklahoma State all have a bye week before playing the Red Raiders.
There are three games on the schedule where Texas Tech is projected to be an underdog of more than a touchdown: road games at Arizona, Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
The Red Raiders must win eight of the other nine games to eclipse their season win total mark.
There are red flags ranging from offensive line continuity to an unproven defense. It's also worth noting that Texas Tech has won eight or more games just once in the last decade.
Pick: Texas Tech Under 7.5 (-120 or Better)
There may not be a better coach to instill a winning culture in the Big 12 than Willie Fritz.
Fritz took over a 5-6 Sam Houston team in 2010 to finish 6-5 before ultimately reaching the FCS Championship in 2011 and 2012. The next stop was a Georgia Southern team coming off a 5-4 season. Fritz quickly improved the Eagles to an undefeated record in Sun Belt play in 2014.
Finally, Tulane also improved in 2016, Fritz’s first season with the team. Under Fritz, the Green Wave won bowl games over Louisiana in 2018, Southern Miss during the 2019 season and USC during the 2022 season.
Former Houston athletic director Chris Pezman was quick to scoop Fritz for the Power Four job, citing “three decades of historic success” in coaching.
Houston's 2024 Season Full of Changes
Houston will enter 2024 with a roster full of experience supplied by the transfer portal. Fritz will look to install a run-heavy style that uses inside/outside zone, man and power run concepts from any down and distance.
Quarterback Donovan Smith enters his senior season looking to top a career-high 600 rushing yards from 2023. The yards were an even split between designed runs and scramble attempts.
2023, we had Anthony Richardson
2024, we had Joe Milton III
2025, we have Donovan Smith.6’5, 241lbs with a massive arm and can MOVE. Let’s see if he can show out the way AR was able to. pic.twitter.com/Lf661DnDeO
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) April 29, 2024
Houston's offensive line was completely wiped out, but Fritz and new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay quickly populated the trench with transfers. Senior Peyton Dunn has more than 30 starts in his career, and projected right tackle Shamar Hobdy-Lee brings more than 30 starts from Louisiana Tech and Florida International.
A big victory for Houston came from Tank Jenkins' waiver to play a seventh season after accumulating nearly 2,000 snaps at right guard over the past three years. Houston's offensive line has the experience and size to compete in the Big 12.
Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood spent a single season at Tulane with Fritz after getting plucked from Troy after the 2022 season. Wood has called a 3-3-5 defense over his past two stops, generating top defenses at the Group of Five level.
Tulane finished top-25 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and limiting explosives a season ago.
Some of the Green Wave defense has trekked across Interstate 10, as defensive end Keith Cooper and linebacker Corey Platt have joined Wood and Fritz at Houston.
Can Cougars Overcome Tough Schedule?
The schedule is unwelcoming for a new staff with a roster full of transfers.
Houston drew five conference road games, but it's the strength of schedule at home that will be tough to overcome. The Cougars will host Iowa State, Utah and Kansas State at TDECU Stadium.
Plus, both of Houston’s bye weeks come against teams also coming off extra rest.
Plenty of factors are steaming this win total down, including roster turnover and the fact that the Cougars have one of the tougher conference schedules.
Despite a roster wipe at offensive line, wide receiver and in the secondary, this is not the first time Fritz has been tasked with producing immediate results.
Houston will be favored over UNLV, Rice and Baylor with coin-flips against Cincinnati and BYU. Kansas and Arizona are also on the schedule, and both teams project to have the weakest defensive front sevens in the conference.
That's music to the ears of Smith and Fritz, who will take advantage with plenty of zone option reads.
Pick: Houston Over 3.5 (-160 or Better)
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My eyes nearly popped out of my head at 2023 Big 12 Media Days when I saw West Virginia picked to finish dead last in the conference.
Going over a win total of 4.5 was one of the easiest tickets to cash thanks to a great schedule, plenty of experience and head coach Neal Brown taking over play-calling.
Brown said at Big 12 Media Days that the Mountaineers were picked 14th in the conference last season, and it motivated the team. After a nine-win season and a boatload of returning production on offense, Brown once again noted that no one is considering WVU a top-25 team, giving the Mountaineers more motivation entering 2024.
West Virginia earned a bruising reputation as the kind of team that would run the ball down an opponent's throat if its front seven wasn't up to the task.
That offensive attack was led by quarterback Garrett Greene and a tandem of running backs in Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson.
CJ Donaldson Jr. and @WVUfootball getting things going early in Norman 💥
📺 FOXpic.twitter.com/gkOgJkqV8U
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 12, 2023
The other parts of the offense are just as experienced, as the offensive line has plenty of depth to replace two big losses in center Zach Frazier and tackle Doug Nester. With the transfer of Xavier Bausley from Jacksonville State, the Mountaineers added nearly 1,000 snaps of experience at the right tackle position.
The wide receiver unit also returns more than 90% of yards from 2023 while also adding wideout Jaden Bray from Oklahoma State.
West Virginia Still Leaning on Ground Game
Make no mistake: this is still a run-heavy offense. The Mountaineers ran the ball at a high 63% rate, using heavy amounts of outside zone and counter run concepts. West Virginia used 12 personnel on nearly 20% of snaps, maximizing the number of blockers to create a top-35 rank in Line Yards.
Not only was this a top-25 team in terms of rushing efficiency, but the Mountaineers also finished top-25 in rush explosives.
The questions begin on the defensive side, particularly on the back end.
West Virginia will return two starters to a defensive line that finished top-35 in tackles for loss and sacks. Transfer edge Ty French should add to those numbers, as the fifth-year senior from Gardner-Webb has racked up 107 pressures and 33 sacks in his career.
The story begins to change at the linebacker level for the aggressive 3-3-5 personnel run by coordinator Jordan Lesley. Trey Lathan and Josiah Trotter had an injury-plagued 2023 season, but they provide depth to a group with little experience.
The cornerback position is where West Virginia’s defensive season will be made or broken, as it will rely on two portal players to start. Garnett Hollis and Ayden Garnes are expected to win starting positions, with the former coming from Northwestern and the latter from Duquesne.
Hollis had exceptional grades as a tackler and coverage DB, providing 38 tackles while recording seven pass breakups on 38 targets. Garnes has more experience in the slot than out wide, generating eight pass breakups on 40 targets a season ago.
While injuries play have played a part in the inexperience, there's talent in the defensive back seven for West Virginia.
Outside of defensive experience being a hurdle, the schedule is unkind for a conference championship run. The October docket begins off a bye week at Oklahoma State before the 'Neers face Iowa State and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. There will be no room to breathe once November arrives with Cincinnati, Baylor and UCF all coming off a bye week.
Value on Mountaineers in Backyard Brawl
Our projection places West Virginia firmly at 6.5 wins with 4.5 Big 12 conference wins — exactly in line with the market.
This is a sleeper to win the Big 12, but it's important to handicap whether or not West Virginia can do two things against this schedule: run the ball and not get burned by opposing passing attacks.
Kansas, Arizona, Baylor and Texas Tech are expected to trot out bottom-tier defensive front sevens. Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Baylor and Texas Tech are all projected mid-conference or worse in quarterback and wide receiver rankings.
The Backyard Brawl may provide a great avenue for a wager on the Mountaineers. Our Action Network power ratings suggest the game should be lined closer to West Virginia -11, not the current -4.5 in the market.
Last season, West Virginia won this game, 17-6, as a 13-play touchdown drive to start the second half was enough to win in Morgantown.
This year's Pitt team loses a trio of defensive line starters, along with their position coach. The Panthers project to have a below-average ACC defensive front seven, giving West Virginia a great advantage on Sept. 14.
Pick: West Virginia -4.5 at Pitt (Game of the Year)
Of all the teams in Florida, UCF might be on the biggest roll. The Knights are looking to make a 10th consecutive bowl game in the fourth year of the Gus Malzahn era.
The roster was well-curated in the offseason after a six-win campaign in its first season of the Big 12. The transfer portal filled a massive gap at quarterback, while an already stout defensive line nabbed additional pieces to help stop opposing run games.
Flashes of Cam Newton?
Quarterback KJ Jefferson comes to Orlando after five years at Arkansas. Malzahn, a former Razorback offensive coordinator, got the perfect quarterback to run his wildcat offense that uses a massive amount of inside zone read and counter run concepts.
Jefferson struggled under Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos a season ago, with Enos preferring slow developing plays and reading progressions for open receivers. The sixth-year senior previously thrived under Kendal Briles' scheme, a quick-hitting offense that mixed inside zone concepts with hot-read passing.
"You're talking about one of the more experienced quarterbacks in all of college football," Malzahn said. "Two years previous to last year, he was one of the better offensive players in the SEC. Last year, [Arkansas] changed offenses, they lost some playmakers around him and all that."
Central Florida now has its perfect quarterback, as Malzahn gets a signal-caller with a play style similar to his national champion QB in Cam Newton.
"He's the closest thing to Cam I’ve coached," Malzahn said.
The Preseason Big 12 Newcomer of the Year
KJ Jefferson Mic’d Up in the Spring ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/QNyB5pi85d
— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) July 2, 2024
The offense returns RJ Harvey in the backfield, who lit the Big 12 up in 2023 with 74 missed tackles forced and 26 explosive runs.
Kobe Hudson returns as the top target in the offense after spending nearly 100 snaps in the slot and over 300 as a wideout in 2023. Hudson is the burner that Jefferson has missed since Arkansas lost Treylon Burks to the Tennessee Titans.
The portal provided additional experience to an offensive line that lost two important pieces, but the transfers' transition is expected to be minimal.
UCF Defensive Line to Play Key Role
Where UCF separates from the middle of the Big 12 pack is on the defensive line. While so many teams in FBS desperately needed help on the defensive interior, the Knights will return Ricky Barber and Lee Hunter.
Barber will look to revisit his 2022 numbers that included 39 pressures and 21 hurries, while Hunter — a preseason all-Big 12 defensive tackle — hopes to replicate his team-leading 41 stops.
UCF was excellent in producing pressure and limiting explosive plays through the air, but defending the run is the top priority for a back seven loaded with Power Four transfers.
Leading the unit will be defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who will begin his time in Orlando after a two-year stint at Oklahoma.
The schedule is conducive to a conference title run, featuring five home games compared to four on the road.
UCF will be coming off a bye week when it hosts Colorado at the Bounce House, but a nonconference game against Florida is sure to produce a hangover against Cincinnati in mid-October.
The docket also includes teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12, including Arizona State and BYU.
The key to the schedule might be the finale against Utah on Nov. 29, as the Utes may travel to Orlando with a Big 12 Championship berth already captured.
The Knights will be a minimum touchdown favorite in half of their games, but road games against Florida and West Virginia make UCF a touchdown underdog.
Mathematically, there's a case to be made for the under 7.5, as we project a win total of 6.9. But this is a team on the rise after transitioning to the Big 12 a season ago.
Excluding special teams, every unit on offense and defense ranks top-five in the conference.
Jefferson will excel in his redemption season with a coach who created this template 15 years ago. This is also one of the most Havoc-heavy defensive lines in the nation, making UCF a dark horse to win the Big 12.
Pick: UCF to Win Big 12 Championship (+950)
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The loss of head coach Jedd Fisch would send most teams into a Year 0 scenario, but Arizona retained its top skill-position players while hiring a solid Group of Five head coach.
Brent Brennan had a rough start as the coach of San Jose State, finishing 3-22 in his first two seasons. However, he compiled a 7-1 record in the 2020 pandemic season before making three bowl games in four seasons.
San Jose State nearly knocked off Auburn in 2022, but a victory at Arkansas in 2019 proved Brennan could coach at the Power Four level.
Arizona Loaded With Experience Despite Coaching Changes
The smartest move Brennan made was hiring a former power-conference head coach as his offensive coordinator. Most coaches in new situations prefer to have experience on their staff, and the hire of former Syracuse head coach Dino Babers is a home run in terms of experience.
The expectation is that this will shift from a pro-style offense to Babers' spread attack. In 2023, Syracuse utilized play-action on just 14% of passing attempts.
Arguably the biggest return from a personnel perspective is quarterback Noah Fifita, the 2023 Action Network Gambling Heisman winner.
The winner of the 6th annual BBOC Gambling Heisman goes to….
Arizona QB Noah Fifita 👏 pic.twitter.com/WW5xGQi5Id
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 5, 2024
However, there's a question as to whether or not Fifita can duplicate his success from a season ago. The quarterback threw for 25 touchdowns but managed just nine total big-time throws on the season.
Fifita does have tremendous accuracy when it comes to hitting the numbers on a target's chest, finishing fourth out of all FBS quarterbacks in on-target rate.
Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan returns out wide as well after generating an explosive 2.8 yards per route run a season ago.
Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan in 2023:
🔹90 REC 130 TGT 1,396 YDS 10 TD
🔹89.1 PFF REC Grade (#10)
🔹2.79 Y/RR (#18)
🔹6.0 YAC (#51)
🔹15.5 Y/REC (#26)
🔹75.3 WID%McMillan elevated Arizona’s offense and should challenge for WR1 in the 2025 classpic.twitter.com/IwthWxBWTe
— Kevin (@Daboys_22) February 27, 2024
While the offense can sustain the output from 2023, the defense will have plenty of questions under new coordinator Duane Akina.
The former Washington quarterback has been an assistant since his first stint at Hawaii in 1982. Oddly enough, Akina was the offensive coordinator in Tucson in 1995 before becoming the Wildcats' defensive backs coach in 1996.
The defense lost nearly every player in the defensive line rotation but has replenished the unit by adding former San Jose State and Syracuse players.
The back seven has more experience, ranking in the top five in the conference in that area. Tacario Davis recorded 15 forced incompletions, good enough to finish as the ninth-highest-rated individual cornerback in the country.
Wildcats Favored in Most Matchups
When it comes to the schedule, Arizona will play five Big 12 games in Tucson. However, a few teams could still give the Wildcats major issues. Kansas State and Utah kick off the conference schedule with heavy rush attacks, which will go right up against Arizona's biggest defensive weakness.
The good news for Brennan is that Kansas State will not count toward Arizona's conference record, as it was scheduled before realignment. Although the schedule eases up after September, BYU, Houston and TCU will all be coming off bye weeks when facing the Wildcats.
Despite the hurdles, Arizona projects to be a favorite in 10 games with a win total projection of 8.3.
Opting for a conference win total would negate the results of the Kansas State game. I'm taking a conference win total over and expecting Brennan and Babers to be involved in plenty of high-scoring games.
Pick: Arizona Conference Win Total Over 5.5 (-125 · DraftKings)
The pandemic was a grim reality for the Kansas Jayhawks. Ultimately, head coach Les Miles was relieved of his duties after two seasons of 3-18 ball.
First-time AD Travis Goff was tasked with finding a new head coach after accepting the position, ultimately deciding on Buffalo’s Lance Leipold. Fast forward three years later, and Kansas is not only a Big 12 contender, but the Jayhawks have a legitimate shot at making the revamped College Football Playoff.
Kansas was once a stout defensive team that made the 2008 Orange Bowl, but 15 years later, the team's identity can be found on the offensive side of the ball.
What to Expect From Kansas Offense
Former offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was the hottest name on the coaching market before he elected to move to Penn State. Leipold was quick to pull the trigger on a familiar name who knows the Kansas playbook when he hired former BYU and Baylor OC Jeff Grimes, who will call plays this season. The transition was seamless before the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, as Kansas beat UNLV with 49 points on the board.
Kotelnicki ran a multiple offense featuring 11 and 12 personnel that pivoted between numerous run-blocking concepts. The offense used heavy motion to read defenses pre-snap, ranking 112th in seconds per play.
That pace of play is expected to change under Grimes, who ran the Baylor and BYU offenses three seconds quicker with a heavier tendency to run the ball.
When he had a mobile quarterback at previous stops, Grimes' best offenses leaned exclusively into outside zone read, an indicator that Kansas' quarterback must stay healthy.
That's going to be paramount for Jalon Daniels, who returns under center after limited time a season ago. The fifth-year senior has played just 18 games over the past three seasons, attempting only 75 passing attempts in 2023 while dealing with a back injury.
Running back Devin Neal will be back in Lawrence after logging 3.6 yards after contact, while Quentin Skinner returns 50 targets at 2.5 yards per route run.
Grimes' experience as an offensive line coach will be needed, as the Jayhawks lose a trio of contributors and have just 40% of snaps returning.
Experience Key for Jayhawks Defense
Defensive coordinator Brian Borland will begin 2024 with plenty of experience in the secondary of his 3-3-5 scheme. Cornerbacks Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson made All-Big 12 teams a season ago after combining for eight interceptions.
The defensive front seven is light on experience and size, an area opposing offenses will try to expose with the rush. Kansas ranked outside the top 100 in Defensive Finishing Drives last season, but if it can improve a bit, the offense will provide plenty of covers for investors.
This is a team dominated by seniors, but there are a few wrinkles that could jeopardize a shot at a conference championship.
Kansas' home field is still under construction, meaning all four home conference games will be played at Arrowhead Stadium.
“We’re going to practice on grass more than ever,” Leipold said.
This is just the tip of the iceberg with additional prep the Jayhawks will go through for home games. Although the proximity to Lawrence is logistically an easy trek, the enlarged stadium gives fan bases such as Iowa State an easier avenue to attend a road game.
Meanwhile, road games against West Virginia and Kansas State could be problematic for the Jayhawks' defensive front seven.
KU's projected wins fall at 9.1, making any win total at eight or better an opportunity for investment.
However, the season rests on Daniels' health and his transition to Grimes' offense. The quarterback has yet to play a full season, which is even more of a concern with former backup Jason Bean off to the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts.
Cole Ballard, the son of Colts general manager Chris Ballard, started against Kansas State in 2023, throwing two interceptions and showing limited mobility compared to Daniels.
Look to take the best number on a win total over with an additional wager on Kansas State in the Game of the Year market as a partial hedge.
The Wildcats have not lost to the Jayhawks in 15 years, and the dynamics between Kansas State's rushing attack and Kansas' defensive line could be enough for a 16th straight victory.
Pick: Kansas Over 8 (-120 or Better) · Game of the Year: Kansas State -6.5 vs. Kansas (Oct. 26)
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There may not be another team in college football with as much winning consistency as Oklahoma State. Head coach Mike Gundy has made 18 consecutive bowl games while leading the Cowboys to the Big 12 Championship in two of the last three seasons.
Last season was a reminder that preseason doubts about the Pokes often prove to be fruitless once the ball is in the air. Oklahoma State had new run-blocking concepts and a defensive coordinator from Division II, but Gundy still had one of his most successful years and finished with 10 wins and a Texas Bowl victory over Texas A&M.
The change in run-blocking concepts was massive for the offensive line in early 2023. With over 400 rushing attempts using inside and outside zone read in 2022, the Cowboys moved to more man, counter and power concepts.
Ollie Gordon II to Play Massive Role Once Again
After a loss to South Alabama, running back Ollie Gordon II started to receive double-digit carries while posting Heisman-worthy numbers. Gordon ended the season with 21 touchdowns and more than 1,700 yards, producing 68 missed tackles while averaging 3.7 yards after contact.
Gordon will have the luxury of running behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country that features more than 200 starts and six redshirt seniors.
Oklahoma State bolstered its running back depth chart with Indiana's Trent Howland and Arkansas' AJ Green, which could be a big deal if anything comes from Gordon's arrest for suspicion of DUI.
Either way, the offensive line will still create massive holes for whichever back takes the field.
Y'all… @Ollie_Gordon2
27 carries
221 yards rushing
3 TD's
8.2 yards/carry📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/L26kA2Gqqa
— OSU Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) October 21, 2023
Quarterback Alan Bowman was granted a seventh year of eligibility after tallying his highest passing touchdown total since his freshman season at Texas Tech in 2018.
The passing game will have another explosive option next to receiver Brennan Presley, as De’Zhaun Stribling returns from injury after receiving 27 targets a season ago.
Can Cowboys Improve on Defense?
There were plenty of questions from the media about the hire of defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo from Division II Gannon University a season ago. The search for a new coordinator was more about the Pokes' 3-3-5 personnel and finding an operator well-versed in the defensive scheme.
Oklahoma State must play better defense this season to reach the College Football Playoff team. The Cowboys ranked bottom-10 nationally in allowing rush and pass explosives.
Nardo reached back to Gannon for defensive end transfer Obi Ezeigbo, who brings more than 100 tackles and 14 sacks with him to Stillwater.
The ceiling for the Pokes defense will be determined by tackling fundamentals and their performance in opponent scoring opportunities. Oklahoma State finished outside the top 75 in tackling and Finishing Drives a season ago.
OSU Schedule Highlighted by 2 Games
The Big 12 schedule is conducive for a return to the Big 12 Championship, with six of the nine teams on the docket projected to finish in the bottom half of the conference standings.
The crux of the schedule comes down to an important home and road game.
First, Oklahoma State will face Utah in Stillwater on Sept. 21. The Utes will be on back-to-back travel after visiting Utah State, but they have the defensive front seven to combat the Pokes offense.
After a bruising game against Utah, the Cowboys travel to Kansas State for another war in the trenches. Oklahoma State projects as a pick hosting Utah and a 6-point underdog in Manhattan.
The projected win total for Oklahoma State lands at 9.1, indicating a season-long wager on the win total over. However, it's worth noting the Cowboys have a tricky nonconference schedule that features FCS champion South Dakota State and Arkansas — especially with last year's South Alabama loss in mind.
The way to bet the Pokes is to let Gordon's legal issue play out in September while relying on a surge in conference play from a team that has averaged more than six Big 12 wins over the past four years.
Look for Gundy to win at least six conference games, as Oklahoma State projects as at least a touchdown favorite over Baylor BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
Pick: Oklahoma State Conference Win Total Over 5.5 (-125 · DraftKings)
There's no doubt that Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has proven he's one of the best in the country after making the move from North Dakota State five seasons ago.
The Wildcats have posted nine wins three times since 2019, and in 2022, won the Big 12 Championship over an undefeated TCU team that would go on to play in the National Championship.
However, success bred change for the supporting cast, as offensive coordinator Collin Klein took the same position at Texas A&M under Mike Elko.
New Faces Bolster Kansas State
With a star budding at quarterback, Klieman wasted no time in elevating offensive line coach Conor Riley while seeking out a new quarterbacks coach. Enter Matt Wells, the former Texas Tech and Utah State head coach. The most critical season for Wells came in 2018 when Aggies signal-caller Jordan Love threw 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
Although Kansas State lost quarterback Will Howard to Ohio State via the portal, no member of Wildcat Nation is looking in the rearview mirror.
New starter Avery Johnson took the world by storm in 2023, rushing for five touchdowns in a Week 7 contest against Texas Tech.
2023 Will Howard + Avery Johnson:
3100 yards and 29 TDs passing
650 yards and 16 TDs rushingI absolutely can’t wait for AJ to be the guy in 2024 in this offense!
— Nate Marchese (@CFFNate) June 27, 2024
Although Johnson is getting rave reviews on his arm strength after avoiding an interception last season, it's the multiple personnel and power run concepts that have Kansas State fans salivating.
Running back DJ Giddens is joined in the backfield by Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, who's originally from Derby High School outside of Wichita.
Edwards and Johnson grew up as childhood friends, a relationship that will pay dividends for the new co-offensive coordinators.
One area of concern is the offensive line depth. The unit returns just 49% of snaps with new faces at four starting positions. With more than a half-dozen run concepts in Klieman's offense, the trench will be tested early in nonconference play.
The Wildcats defense is highlighted by the secondary, which is considered the best unit in the Big 12 with safety Marques Sigle and cornerback Jacob Parrish providing 14 pass breakups in 2023.
Up front, the defensive line has depth after the two-deep rotated positions for most of last season.
Linebacker Austin Moore also returns after recording 11 tackles for loss, but coordinator Joe Klanderman must improve on a PFF tackle grade of 125th.
It's important to note that the Wildcats were excellent when opponents crossed the 40-yard line, allowing just 3.1 points per trip.
Where Do Wildcats Hold Key Advantages?
Kansas State will play five road games in conference with the bulk coming against lower-tier teams such as BYU, Colorado, West Virginia and Houston. The Wildcats will also be heavily favored in home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati.
If the Sunflower Showdown falls in favor of Kansas State once again, three games will determine the season.
Oklahoma State makes the trip to Manhattan on Sept. 28 in a game where the Wildcats are projected favorites of six points. Klieman has lost to Gundy in four of the last five years, and the defensive front seven advantage lies with the Pokes again this season.
Kansas State will then play a high-profile game in elevation against Colorado before making the trip to face West Virginia. The Mountaineers boast one of the best defensive lines in the conference, but the Wildcats won in Morgantown two seasons ago.
Utah doesn't land on the Cats' schedule, so the finale against Iowa State in Ames could determine the conference championship game. Even with a turnover advantage, the Cyclones won Farmageddon in Manhattan to end the 2023 regular season.
Kansas State will be a public favorite to win the conference for a number of reasons.
First, Utah isn't on the schedule. Secondly, a battle with Arizona will be considered a nonconference game because it was scheduled before realignment took place.
Finally, Johnson also has two outstanding weapons in the backfield, along with a potential sleeper at wideout in Penn State transfer Dante Cephas.
The biggest issue will be protecting Johnson with a bundle of new players on the offensive line.
Kansas State has one of the highest win total projections at 9.3 with 6.7 wins expected in the nine-game Big 12 stretch. The season-long win total is in line with the market, so we'll turn our attention to a Game of the Year against Coach Prime and Colorado.
The Wildcats travel to Boulder off of a bye week. The Buffaloes are expected to have issues in the defensive front seven, where run-heavy opponents can take advantage.
Conversely, Colorado's strength resides in the passing game with Shedeur Sanders' arm. With the Wildcats projected to have the best secondary in the conference, Colorado’s explosiveness through the air will be contained.
Action Network's projections line this game closer to -11 in favor of the Wildcats, who will have five games of experience racked up for the new offensive line.
Pick: Kansas State -6 vs. Colorado (Game of the Year · Oct. 12)
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Iowa State continues to exceed in seasons with modest expectations.
A gambling scandal rocked the roster before fall camp broke a season ago, leaving the Cyclones without their starting quarterback. With minimal returning experience and a rebuilt tight end room, Iowa State engineered a seven-win season with three outright victories as an underdog.
Cyclones to Compete for Conference Crown?
Quarterback Rocco Becht was a revelation with 16 touchdowns to five interceptions in Big 12 play. The freshman ended the season with nine big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play on 34 attempts longer than 20 yards.
He has also drawn a comparison to another former freshman starting quarterback at Iowa State.
“Rocco’s junior-year high-school film looked just like Brock Purdy’s junior year of high school,” Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell said.
Daniel Jackson flies free and Rocco Becht tosses his second TD of the afternoon! pic.twitter.com/GNZecnw4GE
— OutCYde the Lines (@OutCYdetheLines) September 23, 2023
Campbell also raved about Becht's leadership abilities, saying his leadership is his biggest strength.
New offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser was elevated from tight ends coach, a position crucial to Iowa State's offense.
The Cyclones ran nearly as many snaps in 12 personnel as 11, with three tight ends on the field on 63 plays. The physically imposing Benjamin Brahmer is the name to know from the group after he caught 26 balls for 16 first downs as a true freshman last season.
Like Oklahoma State, the Cyclones will return every starter to the offensive line.
In the passing game, wide receiver Jaylin Noel was targeted more than any other player last season. He and Jayden Higgins both averaged a high rate of explosives at 2.6 yards per route run.
Yes Abu Sama is K-State’s daddy, but don’t forgot about this game winning Jaylin Noel tiptoe touchdown down the sideline 🌪 pic.twitter.com/5eYMhgkrwk
— OutCYde the Lines (@OutCYdetheLines) July 2, 2024
Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock also brings back the bulk of last year's experience to this season's roster. The defensive back seven will shine with nickel Beau Freyler, safety Malik Verdon and linebacker Caleb Bacon.
Iowa State finished eighth last season in on-target rate allowed, meaning the Cyclones were one of the nation's best at eliminating clean catches and throws by opposing offenses.
The defensive line failed to produce the same amount of Havoc in terms of sacks and tackles for loss compared to earlier versions of the 3-3-5. The three-man front was fresh a season ago. Now, edges Joey Petersen and Tyler Onyedim and nose tackle J.R. Singleton will look to increase that Havoc number.
The Big 12 schedule-makers granted five home games to the Cyclones, who also dodge Oklahoma State in conference play.
Head coach Matt Campbell's team is projected to be a touchdown favorite in five conference games. There are coin-flip games at West Virginia, Kansas and Kansas State, but a matchup with Utah in Salt Lake City will be the toughest game of the season.
As the preseason scandal settled, Iowa State caught fire in the second half of last season with victories over Texas and Kansas. Meanwhile, losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by a combined eight points.
Iowa State's 2024 roster boasts one of the highest experience marks in the country, but the game-changing element for the Cyclones is their ability to create explosive plays. ISU finished fourth in Rush EPA and 11th in Pass EPA in 2023, giving this team an element that previous Iowa State squads didn't have.
Pick: Iowa State to Make Big 12 Championship (+475)
If there's a program in FBS where returning experience might not matter much, it was Utah in 2023.
Quarterback Cam Rising’s preseason injury provided news at Pac-12 Media Day, as the fifth-year senior didn't attempt a pass after a 22-touchdown and seven-interception campaign in 2022.
Three different quarterbacks attempted at least 10 passes last year, which was eerily similar to the running back distribution. Injuries stressed the backfield's two-deep, leading to defensive back Sione Vaki averaging 7.5 yards per carry over 42 attempts.
Utah returns more than the national average in experience on both sides of the ball this time around, but head coach Kyle Whittingham is the one who makes the Utes one of the country's toughest teams to play on Saturdays.
Utes Already a Threat in Big 12
Although running back Ja'Quinden Jackson transferred to Arkansas, the remaining pieces on offense are talented enough to win a third conference championship in four years.
Rising entering the season at full strength is massive, and he welcomes back his No. 1 target in tight end Brant Kuithe. Running back Jaylon Glover also returns after running the ball 121 times last year, but he must improve a low 2.8 yards-after-contact mark.
Additionally, offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig inherited an explosive weapon in Dorian Singer. The former USC and Arizona receiver posted a massive season in 2022, collecting 98 targets for more than 1,100 yards with an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
BOOM. Caleb Williams’ first TD pass of 2023 is to Arizona transfer Dorian Singer 🔥
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) August 27, 2023
The right side of the offensive line boasts plenty of experience, but the blindside tackle position is expected to go to redshirt freshman Caleb Lomu.
On the defensive side of the ball, coordinator Morgan Scalley's nickel defense will pivot between a three- and four-man front with plenty of depth at every position in the front seven.
Utah projects to have the best defensive line in the Big 12, led by tackles Junior Tafuna and Keanu Tanuvasa.
Meanwhile, cornerback Zemaiah Vaughn has 13 pass breakups over the past two seasons while mixing in a small portion of snaps defending the slot.
The secondary finished top-25 in on-target rate allowed, a stat that determines whether or not a wide receiver caught the ball in stride.
Utah will be a minimum touchdown favorite in 10 games this season, including the Holy War against BYU.
Is Utah a College Football Playoff Contender?
The Utes will travel five times in conference play, with the biggest game coming in Stillwater on Sept. 21. In a game projected as a pick'em, Utah’s defensive front seven against Oklahoma State's ground attack will be a must-watch.
Another conference game that could play a major role in the standings will be a battle of nickel defenses when Iowa State comes to town. It's also worth noting that Utah may have no incentive to beat UCF in the regular-season finale if it already has a spot in the conference title game locked up.
Utah projects at 10.2 wins with 7.2 projected victories in the Big 12. While a win total over is certainly in play, there's a high probability that the Utes play in their first-ever Big 12 Championship game.
Because the Big 12 is a division-less conference, only a massive injury season like 2023 could push Utah down to a finish of third or worse in the standings. The Utes' true odds of making the Big 12 Championship sit at -110, giving value to the current market number.
Even if Utah makes the championship game and loses, there's reason to believe a nine-win team from a Power Four conference can make the playoff.
With a potential 10-win season on deck and no Kansas State or Kansas on the schedule, Utah could very well host the first-ever College Football Playoff home game.
Pick: Utah to Make College Football Playoff (+260)
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Big 12 Best Bets & Futures
- Arizona State: Under 4.5 (-150)
- BYU: Under 4.5 (-130)
- Baylor: Under 3.5 Big 12 Wins
- TCU: Under 7.5 (-140) · Game of the Year: SMU -7 vs. TCU
- Colorado: Under 5.5 (+115) · Game of the Year: Colorado +6.5 vs. Nebraska
- Cincinnati: Over 2.5 Big 12 Wins
- Houston: Over 3.5 (-132)
- West Virginia: WVU -4.5 at Pitt (Game of the Year)
- UCF: To Win Big 12 Championship (+950)
- Texas Tech: Under 7.5 (-110)
- Arizona: Over 5.5 Big 12 Wins
- Kansas: Over 8 -120 · Game of the Year: Kansas State -6.5 vs. Kansas
- Oklahoma State: Over 5.5 Big 12 Wins
- Kansas State: KSU -6 vs. Colorado (Game of the Year)
- Iowa State: To Make Big 12 Championship (+475)
- Utah: To Make College Football Playoff (+260)
