2024 Big Ten Odds & Win Totals
INDIANAPOLIS — The new era of the Big Ten is upon us.
With the addition of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington from the Pac-12, the Big Ten has expanded to 18 teams — the most of any conference in college football.
But what might be most impressive is the depth of the league. Eleven of the conference's 18 teams are on the cusp of making a bowl game, according to Action Network's projected win totals, and another four or five could be competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff late into the season.
That means the newcomers will make an immediate impact.
Oregon enters the season with the second-shortest odds to win the conference, and USC owns the fifth-shortest. While it may be a tough initial season for UCLA, Washington should also find itself in the upper third of the conference as well.
The addition of these former Pac-12 schools also brings the elimination of divisions in the Big Ten.
That format played a big role for teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue in their quest to make the Big Ten Championship. With divisions now gone, we should see a boost for those schools from the East Division, as Rutgers and Maryland won't have to suffer three near-automatic losses to Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan.
Before we dive into the conference at large and make some picks in our Big Ten preview, let's take a look at the projected win totals for all 18 teams.
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Purdue Boilermakers
Big Ten: +30000 · Win Total: 4.5
The transfer portal door in West Lafayette needs a full can of WD-40. Purdue saw 29 players exit while adding another 18 to complete the 2024 roster.
There are highly productive names on both sides, but head coach Ryan Walters lost a few key players in edge Nic Scourton to Texas A&M, wide receiver Deion Burks to Oklahoma and wide receiver/punt returner TJ Sheffield to UConn.
The portal also ran hot in terms of incoming players. Purdue added a quartet of Georgia Bulldogs, as well as offensive skill-position starters from UCLA and Illinois.
The Boilermakers amassed more than 60% of their tackles, pressures and pass breakups from the transfer portal. Meanwhile, safety Dillon Thieneman returns as the most important defensive piece from a season ago with 106 tackles and eight passes defensed.
Purdue will be very experienced offensively at quarterback and running back.
Hudson Card enters his fifth season with an outstanding 15:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he must improve in other areas. The former Texas signal-caller nearly tripled his turnover-worthy play rate last season, committing as many mistakes as big-time throws.
Drops played a key role in the passing game in 2023, but Purdue's top four targets have moved on. The Boilers will now rely on Georgia transfer CJ Smith and UCLA transfer Kam Brown.
The good news comes with the running back group, as starter Devin Mockobee is joined by former Illinois starter Reggie Love III.
Boilermakers Favored Just Once
Schedule-makers in the Big Ten did Purdue no favors, putting Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State on the docket in the second half of the season. The Boilermakers also host Notre Dame and make trips to Oregon State and Wisconsin.
Action Network's betting power ratings make Purdue a favorite in just one game — the season opener against Indiana State.
Nebraska and Michigan State are projected as a pick'em, while the Boilermakers will be short underdogs against Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana. The win total projection for Purdue comes in at 3.6 for the season and 2.3 for the Big Ten.
The best price in the market for both of those numbers comes in the conference win total market. The Boilermakers must win three of their five coin-flip and short-underdog games.
Purdue goes on back-to-back travel at an Illinois team fresh off a bye week in October and will also play a back-to-back road game at Indiana on Thanksgiving weekend.
Northwestern also makes a trip to West Lafayette in early November when the Boilers find themselves in a blue-blood sandwich. Purdue bookends the NU game with Oregon and Ohio State.
Pick: Purdue Conference Win Total Under 2.5 (+130)
East Lansing is heading in a new direction with the arrival of head coach Jonathan Smith from Oregon State. Mel Tucker departs after a 9-15 record over the previous two seasons, leaving the Spartans with one of the lowest offensive returning TARP numbers.
The Corvallis-to-East Lansing Pipeline
Smith used the portal to build the offense, reaching back to Corvallis for quarterback Aidan Chiles.
52-yard strike from Aidan Chiles 😳 pic.twitter.com/IoWO6UTioq
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) October 29, 2023
The former Beaver connected on four touchdowns in a limited 35 passing attempts.
A familiar target will join Chiles on the offense, with tight end Jack Velling also transferring in from Oregon State.
Wideout Montorie Foster returns after 73 targets last season, but the remaining wide receivers and running backs are light on experience. The offensive line is just as spotty in that area, leaning on Oregon State center Tanner Miller for leadership.
The defense will be called by coordinator Joe Rossi, fresh off a seven-year stint in the same role at Minnesota. Rossi prefers a 3-3-5 with a modest 21% blitz rate while playing quarters coverage.
The back of the defense will be the strength entering 2024, as safety Malik Spencer was the third-leading tackler on the team covering the slot.
Similar to the offensive side of the ball, the trench enters the season without depth and experience.
Michigan State's Win Total Too High?
Michigan State will be a comfortable favorite in just two games this season — nonconference matchups against Florida Atlantic and Prairie View.
Another four games — Boston College, Indiana, Illinois and Rutgers — have the Spartans projected as an underdog of a touchdown or less. The Spartans clock in with a projected win total squarely on four.
They have the potential to enter a brutal October schedule with three wins, but depth will be a concern heading into November.
Considering Michigan State must take all of its six winnable games to eclipse the market win total, take the under and look at a mid-November game against Illinois as a hedge.
Pick: Michigan State Under 5 (-115)
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There are plenty of high expectations for Matt Rhule in his second season as Nebraska's head coach. Rhule has lived up to his billing as a coach who can build programs, securing 10 additional wins in second seasons at both Temple and Baylor.
There are other positive indicators for the Huskers heading into 2024, as they receive an offseason power rating boost due to second-order win total and regression from a turnover margin of -17. No team lost more interceptions and fumbles than Nebraska in 2023.
Raiola Set to Lead Cornhuskers
On the offensive side of the ball, blue-chip freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola is the best passer recruited to Lincoln in a generation. The Georgia native had a long recruiting process, ultimately bringing his arm strength and deadly play-action pass skills to coordinator Marcus Satterfield’s offense.
The biggest issue for Nebraska a season ago was a rank of 132nd in Havoc Allowed, a metric that looks at tackles for loss allowed, fumbles and interceptions on offense.
The line will return nearly every player to the two-deep depth chart, but the unit must improve in run- and pass-blocking for the Cornhuskers offense to operate.
Bryce Benhart returns to right tackle after leading the team in run-block grading, while center Ben Scott was the highest-graded pass-blocker.
Satterfield struggled to implement the pro-style offense last season and at South Carolina, his previous stop, but now has a quarterback capable of executing explosive plays in passing downs.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Tony White returns more than 70% of pressures and pass breakups to his 3-3-5 defense. Nebraska's defense was nasty a season ago, ranking top-25 in numerous categories, including Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives.
The Cornhuskers have one of the best defensive fronts in the conference, led by nose tackle Nash Hutmacher and his 23 pressures from the interior.
Outside linebacker Isaac Gifford spent at least 140 snaps in the box, covering the slot or playing safety while defending eight passes. This version of the Blackshirts should be the best he has had in his collegiate coaching career.
Nebraska Road Warriors?
Games away from Memorial Stadium will determine the season. Nebraska will play Indiana and Ohio State on back-to-back travel while also playing at Iowa and USC in November.
The Huskers do have a bye week before two conference road games, but a trip to Columbus features an Ohio State team coming off a bye itself.
The toughest part of the schedule comes in conference play, as the Huskers project to win no more than three games. Nebraska projects as an underdog in its final five games with winnable matchups against Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana.
Pick: Nebraska Conference Win Total Under 4.5 (-115)
When abrupt coaching and roster changes hit a program, the new personnel may require a Year 0 to rebuild both the staff and roster. For UCLA, the departure of head coach Chip Kelly in February left the program stunned before spring practice.
UCLA's Season Full of Change
The Bruins then hired former NFL running back DeShaun Foster, who has been on UCLA's staff nearly every year since his entrance into coaching in 2013.
While Foster hasn't stepped on the sideline as the Bruins' head coach yet, he already made headlines on social media with his opening statement at Big Ten Media Days.
UCLA coach DeShaun Foster’s opening statement at Big Ten Media Days
pic.twitter.com/bGncRbhEwq— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 24, 2024
New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy also joined the program after a single season as the Washington Commanders' OC. Before that, Bieniemy was one of the hottest names in coaching circles when he served in the same role for the Kansas City Chiefs, where he won two Super Bowls alongside Patrick Mahomes.
Although Kelly departed for Ohio State, there's every expectation UCLA will run a rush-heavy offense.
Running back TJ Harden returns after an 800-yard rushing campaign, but the back has poor numbers in yards after contact and creating missed tackles. Keegan Jones returns for a sixth season to bulk up the running back depth chart but has averaged just 30 rushing attempts per year.
While it remains to be seen how many two-back personnel sets are run by Foster and Bieniemy, the best pieces of the offense are in the passing game with quarterback Ethan Garbers and his top returning target, J. Michael Sturdivant.
The home run-hitting wide receiver recorded 70 targets a season ago, catching 36 balls with an average depth of target at 16 yards.
𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 🎙️ presented by Nextiva
J. Michael Sturdivant (@jmike_04) had a career-high 142 yards receiving on four catches, making long catches to set up or score a UCLA touchdown on three drives in the second half. 💪#GoBruins | @UCLAFootballpic.twitter.com/CNdzP4Pvrw
— UCLA Athletics (@UCLAAthletics) December 17, 2023
New defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe was promoted from defensive line coach and should continue utilizing UCLA's previous scheme and personnel.
The nickel defense flashed multiple defensive line fronts with Cover 1 and quarters coverage from the secondary under previous coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
UCLA was one of the most aggressive defenses in the nation in terms of pressure, sending blitz on 42% of snaps. Those numbers may decrease with the loss of edge Laiatu Latu and linebacker Darius Muasau.
Only 40% of tackles and pressures return, so the Bruins will likely struggle at all three levels of the defense.
How Will Travel Impact Bruins?
The schedule includes plenty of air miles for road games. The Bruins will leave the friendly confines of southern California for Hawaii, LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska all in separate weeks.
Foster's team will be favored in four games against Hawaii, Indiana, Fresno State and Nebraska, where UCLA will be off a bye week. However, a win may be out of reach in three games: Oregon, Penn State and LSU.
There are also plenty of coin-flip games that will be decided by how well UCLA's coaching staff prepares the roster.
The best time to take advantage of UCLA is in the first game of the season against an experienced Hawaii team playing at home. Hawaii is expected to field one of the best quarterback and wide receiver combinations in the Mountain West, as head coach Timmy Chang's run-and-shoot offense will be ready to attack on the island.
Our Action Network betting power ratings make the game UCLA -12, but it's a perfect situational spot that favors the home team.
Pick: Game of the Year: Hawaii +13.5 vs. UCLA (Aug. 31)
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While the coaching seat in Champaign hasn't reached inferno status, head coach Bret Bielema has failed to reach six wins in two of his three seasons with the Illinois program.
Seven games on the 2023 schedule were decided by a margin of six points or less. The Fighting Illini finished 5-2 in those games, indicating that a change in close-game luck could've left Illinois with a record far worse than 5-7.
Now, fielding potentially the worst units in the conference at wide receiver and defensive line, Bielema will need his best coaching effort.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer returns for a second season under coordinator Barry Lunney Jr, as does wideout Pat Bryant, who recorded 63 targets last year. However, Bryant lacks an explosive element from a yards-per-route-run and elusiveness standpoint.
The same thing can be said about the ground game.
The balanced attack preferred zone read concepts on rushing attempts. Illinois will lean on Kaden Feagin, but the sophomore struggled to produce explosive runs last season, logging just four rushing attempts over 15 yards in 95 carries.
Illinois Defense in a Rebuild
On the other side of the ball, the defensive line finds itself in a complete rebuild with no expectations of creating a top-50 pass rush. Seventh-year Florida State transfer edge Dennis Briggs and sophomore edge Alex Bray both failed to produce 10 pressures last season.
Middle linebacker Dylan Rosiek returns as the leading tackler from last year, but he also led the team in missed tackles. Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry will have an uphill climb with the 3-3-5 defense that sends blitz on 47% of snaps.
Illinois will be a favorite in four games this season, with Purdue and Michigan State projected within a touchdown. Another four games are most likely out of reach for upset, including Kansas, Penn State, Oregon and Michigan.
The Illini's season win total will more than likely come down to games against Nebraska, Purdue and Minnesota. The Illinois defense will struggle to stop opposing rushing attacks this season, but that's the primary attack option for most conference favorites. Luckily for Illinois, it has a great situational spot off a bye week against a Purdue team on back-to-back travel.
Look for regression in Bielema’s recent win-loss record on a schedule with plenty of coin-flips.
Pick: Illinois Under 5.5 (-120)
The win total market took a dive on Northwestern in 2023 after the program separated from head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats turned to newly-named defensive coordinator David Braun as the interim, while the market total settled 2.5 wins.
The former North Dakota State coordinator ended up having his "interim" tag removed in mid-November, as Braun rolled to an eight-win season that included a Las Vegas Bowl victory over Utah.
Northwestern Looks to Keep Improving
The biggest improvement for the Wildcats came on defense, finishing top-50 in stopping explosives on the ground and through the air. Northwestern also slipped inside the top 60 in Quality and Finishing Drives, preventing opposing offenses from getting into scoring position and putting up points.
The defense returns more than 70% of pressures, led by defensive linemen Carmine Bastone and Richie Hagarty. The Havoc also ratcheted up thanks to linebacker Xander Mueller, who supplied 46 stops on the season.
You all, how big was Xander Mueller today? 😈@xandermueller13 x @NUFBFamilypic.twitter.com/fF1GiEaf9e
— Northwestern On BTN (@NUOnBTN) November 18, 2023
The defense provided a positive bump for Northwestern's power rating, but those are negated by the losses suffered on offense.
Quarterback Brendan Sullivan hit the portal for rival Iowa, so former Vanderbilt and Mississippi State quarterback Mike Wright is expected to inherit starting duties under center.
The fifth-year senior has racked up more than 1,300 yards rushing in his career but has struggled with limitations when it comes to throwing the ball. Wright has posted 15 big-time throws to 32 turnover-worthy plays in his time with the Commodores and Bulldogs.
New offensive coordinator Zach Lujan will look to implement the offense from his last stop: reigning two-time FCS national champion South Dakota State.
The Jackrabbits ran more 12 personnel than any other grouping, leveraging plenty of outside zone and power run concepts. Running back Cam Porter should top his career high of 167 rushing attempts in a single season.
Although Northwestern projects to be favored in five games, Eastern Illinois is the only comfortable margin for the Wildcats. However, Braun will also see his team favored over Miami (OH) and Duke, with both opponents searching for an identity after losing the most productive pieces of their roster.
Illinois and Indiana are also coin-flip games, but the Wildcats will come off a bye week to face the Hoosiers. That should be enough to help the 'Cats cruise over their season win total.
Pick: Northwestern Over 4.5 (-120)
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The Gophers ended the 2023 season winning a seventh consecutive bowl thanks to an APR qualifier.
Head coach PJ Fleck had his worst season as head coach in Minneapolis, winning just five regular season games. With a depleted roster and coaching staff turnover, reports surfaced of Fleck’s interest in coaching positions outside of Minneapolis.
The seat figures to get warmer for Fleck in 2024, as Minnesota has one of the toughest schedules in the nation while breaking in new faces on both sides of the ball.
New Quarterback Highlights Minnesota's Offensive Changes
New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer arrives with the departure of Athan Kaliakmanis to Rutgers.
Brosmer led FCS in passing, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 29 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. Less than 10% of those passes went beyond 20 yards, though, as Brosmer’s favorite route concept of crossers produced a high 63% Success Rate.
Pressure didn't seem to faze the FCS product, as his turnover-worthy play rate increased from 2.7% to just 3.3% with a crowded pocket.
New Gopher football QB1 Max Brosmer has quite the arm, can really sling it pic.twitter.com/oraf5ijZMF
— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) December 4, 2023
The biggest question is whether or not Fleck will come off a rush rate of 61% with four offensive linemen and running back Darius Taylor in the fold.
Taylor produced an electric 3.8 yards after contact on 138 rushing attempts. His season was cut short by injury, but the Quick Lane Bowl MVP is expected to be the Gophers' workhorse out of the backfield.
Expect Similar Defensive Schemes Under New DC
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi took the same position at Michigan State, leaving Fleck to pull from Rutgers for a new DC. Corey Hetherman gained notoriety as the defensive coordinator for James Madison but spent the previous two seasons as the linebackers' coach for the Scarlet Knights.
Hetherman is expected to keep the 3-3-5 personnel with a minimal 21% blitz but remove the complexities that often stalled the Gophers defense under Rossi.
The secondary loses Tyler Nubin and his nine passes defensed, so the remaining pieces must step up their production. Safety Darius Green and cornerback Justin Walley both allowed 10 touchdowns on a defense that finished 130th in Finishing Drives.
The Gophers' biggest strength is an experienced offensive line and a seasoned running back, but any contributions from Brosmer in passing downs will be welcomed. Minnesota finished outside the top 100 in both Passing Downs Success Rate and explosives a season ago.
A simplification of defensive concepts should benefit the Gophers, but Hetherman will work on a roster that finished outside the top 100 in tackling. For comparison, his Rutgers unit ranked top-10 in that area in 2023.
Minnesota will play two games off bye weeks over the last five weeks of the season. The Gophers will be comfortably favored over Rhode Island and Nevada, but a number of coin-flip games come in tough portions of the schedule.
UCLA, Illinois, Rutgers and Wisconsin are all games in which Minnesota would have a puncher's chance as an underdog, but all of those matchups come on the road.
Considering Fleck is well below .500 against the spread in conference play over the last two seasons, an APR qualifier may once again be needed for Minnesota to go bowling.
Pick: Minnesota Under 5.5 (-120)
No other program in FBS football has been known for massive offensive linemen blocking for 250-pound running backs quite like Wisconsin. But in 2023, decades of offensive philosophy were thrown out the window with the hire of Phil Longo as offensive coordinator.
Instead of a heavy ground attack, Longo implemented a "Don’t Blink" Air Raid with tempo.
Two-tight end sets were a mainstay for Wisconsin until last season, as the Badgers spent less than 5% of snaps in 12 personnel. A heavy rush rate was trimmed to 50%, while the RPO rate increased from 5% to 35%.
Wisconsin Gears Up for Year 2
In Year 2 of the transition, the running back room will depend on a number of names to make up for the departed Braelon Allen.
Chez Mellusi returns for a sixth season with a modest 2.8 yards after contact. He'll be backed up by Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker, who busted only three explosive runs for the Sooners.
The quarterback battle takes place between backup Braedyn Locke and former Miami signal-caller Tyler Van Dyke.
Locke had more than double the number of turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws. Van Dyke, meanwhile, threw 54 touchdowns to just 23 interceptions during his time in Coral Gables.
TYLER VAN DYKE🎯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 9, 2023
The numbers did not improve for Van Dyke in terms of pocket pressure. The fifth-year quarterback's completion percentage dropped in half with a crowded pocket.
Van Dyke will be expected to improve against certain coverages after struggling with Cover 1 and Cover 2 while at Miami.
Three offensive linemen return to a unit that contributed to a top-10 ranking in Havoc Allowed.
Wide receiver Will Pauling also returns after 109 targets, giving the Air Raid an explosive weapon out of the slot.
Ultimately, there may not be enough quality pieces on the receiver depth chart to run four-receiver sets, but Van Dyke will operate in an offense that will provide better protection from tackles from loss and sacks.
The defense is the steady variable of this Wisconsin team, as coordinator Mike Tressel turned to the transfer portal to fill an empty linebacker room.
The biggest worry is the development of the defensive line. Redshirt freshman defensive tackle Curt Neal comes in under 300 pounds and started just one game a season ago. The other interior position will be filled by senior James Thompson, who's also listed below 300 pounds. Thompson does have above replacement value, creating 18 pressures and 20 tackles a season ago.
The defense will excel against the pass, but Wisconsin could struggle against run-heavy offenses.
Finding eight wins on the schedule could be problematic, as the Badgers will be underdogs of more than two touchdowns in three home games against Alabama, Penn State and Oregon.
They will also be road underdogs of six points or more against USC and Iowa while projecting as a heavy favorite in three games against Minnesota, Western Michigan and South Dakota.
The Badgers must play at their ceiling level to eclipse a market win total of 7. However, that's a tough task with an offense struggling to adapt and a defensive line ready to be attacked.
Pick: Wisconsin Under 7 (-115)
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In the words of 80s hair band Cinderella, “You don’t know what you got (till it's gone).”
Maryland will play the part of the glam metal band singing about quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who was denied a sixth-season waiver from the NCAA. The Terrapins now must replace 3,300 passing yards and 77 career touchdowns.
Goodbye Taulia, Hello Billy & MJ
Backup Billy Edwards Jr. will duel with NC State transfer MJ Morris for starting duties.
Edwards and Morris both have the ability to move around the pocket, each eclipsing more than 90 rushing yards off designed calls in their playing time.
The passing samples are too small to make a pick on who wins the position. Morris has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, while Edwards completed just 6-of-20 passes in the Terrapins' Music City Bowl win over Auburn.
Running back Roman Hemby didn't score as many touchdowns last season, but he transformed into an explosive running back. The fourth-year rusher improved to 3.8 yards after contact, increasing his explosive play rate from 8% to 14%.
The receiver group loses top target Jeshaun Jones but returns six of its top eight targets, including 11 touchdowns from Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
Defensive coordinator Brian Williams' first season was a success in terms of limiting the big play, ranking top-20 in containing explosives in both standard and passing downs.
The Terrapins were fundamentally sound as a top-30 team in tackling, but issues remain in defending the run. The strength of this 3-3-5 is the defensive front, as linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II generated 66 tackles last season.
Maryland’s coverage package was strictly quarters and Cover 3. Cornerback Jalen Huskey should fit in well, bringing five pass breakups and four interceptions from Bowling Green.
The key to the Terrapins' season is quarterback play and the number of rush-heavy opponents they face.
A projected win total of 5.9 has Maryland favored comfortably in four games, while Minnesota, Rutgers and Indiana are the coin-toss games that will make or break the season.
The Gophers will be coming off a bye week when Maryland visits Minneapolis, which could be a potential issue for the Terrapins' defensive front.
Pick: Maryland Under 6.5 (-125)
There's no shortage of confidence for new Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti, fresh off leading James Madison to 19 wins in two seasons of FBS play.
“I figured that I should make this trip up here since we'll be playing in [the Big Ten Championship] next year,” Cignetti said at his opening press conference at Big Ten Media Days.
That confidence has certainly played a role in transfer portal recruiting. So, what does he tell those players looking for a new home?
“I win," Cignetti said at a December press conference. "Google me.”
Indiana Brings New Personnel From JMU
That attitude brought James Madison's entire offensive staff to Bloomington, including offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan and co-coordinator and quarterback coach Tino Sunseri.
The Dukes ran a balanced attack, leaning on the ground game 52% of the time with a heavy usage of inside zone.
New quarterback Kurtis Rourke transfers from Ohio, where the Canada native ran a highly successful rate of zone read.
The Hoosiers get one of the best MAC passers in recent history, as Rourke talled 50 passing touchdowns to just 16 interceptions in four seasons with the Bobcats.
The skill positions are loaded with transfers, as James Madison will be represented at running back, wide receiver and tight end.
The offensive line returns more than 80% of snaps from a season ago but with names from the portal — and there are some quality pieces. Right tackle Trey Wedig brings 850 snaps of experience from Wisconsin, while left tackle holdover Carter Smith allowed pressure on just 2.3% of snaps last season.
The defense has a direct one-way pipeline from James Madison as well, as five projected starters come with Cignetti. Edge Mikail Kamara produced 41 hurries and eight sacks for the Dukes, and middle linebacker Aiden Fisher led the team in tackles.
Coordinator Bryant Haines' nickel package at James Madison led the nation in in Line Yards, Havoc and Success Rate against the rush.
New #iufb LB Aiden Fisher pic.twitter.com/X5VwY1uhMo
— Hoosier Huddle (@Hoosier_Huddle) December 24, 2023
Can Hoosiers Reach a Bowl?
Since his first position at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Cignetti has never had a losing season. With a win total of 5.5, he'll look to keep that going.
The Hoosiers fall into a great situational spot off a bye week against Ohio State on Nov. 23, as the Buckeyes will be looking ahead to their rivalry with Michigan.
Indiana will be a heavy favorite in three nonconference games while projecting as a short favorite in three Big Ten home games against Purdue, Nebraska and Maryland. Two short underdog spots on the road come against UCLA and Northwestern.
Indiana has the potential to win eight games on this schedule, so I'll take a win total over on a confident coach who has never had a losing season.
Pick: Indiana Over 5.5 (+100)
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Greg Schiano came back to Rutgers during the pandemic, providing an immediate boost to the New Jersey recruiting pipeline.
Fast forward to 2023, and the Scarlet Knights had their best season in a decade with seven wins and a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Miami.
With stability in the coaching staff and a commitment to NIL and the transfer portal, Rutgers has firmly moved from the Big Ten cellar to the middle of the conference.
Rutgers Looks to Keep Elevating
Kirk Ciarrocca took over as offensive coordinator a season ago after prior stops at Penn State and Minnesota. Rutgers finished with one of the highest rush rates in the nation at 63%, finding the highest rate of success with inside zone and man run concepts.
Running back Kyle Monangai returns behind a heavily experienced offensive line, looking to build on 3.6 yards after contact and 73 missed tackles created.
Former quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has made his way to Kentucky, leaving starting duties to Minnesota import Athan Kaliakmanis. Ciarorocca will be responsible for getting the sophomore on track after a high 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate in 2023.
Kaliakmanis will benefit from a better offensive line after facing 112 pressured dropbacks in 295 passing attempts.
The quarterback should also benefit from leading receiver Christian Dremel after his Gopher targets dropped 25 balls compared to 14 for Rutgers a season ago.
Athan Kaliakmanis finds his brother Dino for a 9-yard touchdown to tie the game up: pic.twitter.com/65ONovciGz
— Brian Fonseca (@briannnnf) April 27, 2024
Defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak has been with Schiano since his return to Piscataway, implementing a nickel package with a moderate 30% blitz rate and 35% man coverage rate.
The strength of the defense is the secondary despite the loss of Max Melton at cornerback. Rutgers finished top-20 defensively in tackling, coverage and preventing the big play, and there shouldn't be a drop-off with some of the biggest contributors returning to a stable coaching staff.
However, the Rutgers defense returns less than 70% of pressures and tackles from the front seven, as the defensive line needed portal additions to build depth.
Linebackers Desmond Igbinosun and Mohamed Toure will still bring the Havoc after combining for more than 10 tackles for loss last season.
Best Regular Season Since 2014?
Rutgers projects at 6.7 wins on the season and 4.3 victories in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights will cruise in opening games against Howard and Akron before their first bye week.
Rutgers will play eight games projected within six points as a favorite or underdog. Coin-flips dominate this schedule, so it's worth noting that Schiano has gone 6-7 in one-possession games since coming back to Rutgers.
The Knights will have an advantage in a Nov. 9 home game against Minnesota. The revenge spot for Kaliakmanis and Ciarrocca sees Rutgers coming off a bye week and the Gophers going on back-to-back travel.
The final four games could produce a sweep but ultimately serve as hedges for a plus-money win total.
Pick: Rutgers Over 6.5 (+120)
Plenty of changes are happening in Seattle after Washington's national title game run ended with an exodus of coaches and players before its first season in the Big Ten.
Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch was quickly pegged for the job after Kalen DeBoer agreed to take the Alabama position following the retirement of legendary Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban.
Fisch Hopes to Sustain Washington's Success
A return to the Pacific Northwest was always in the cards for Fisch after a stint as the Seattle Seahawks' quarterbacks' coach under Pete Carroll.
Fisch took the Arizona head-coaching job after the Wildcats finished winless in five games during the 2020 pandemic season. Arizona improved to 1-11 before Fisch catapulted the team to 10 wins in 2023.
With Washington expected to enter a Year 0, Fisch must replicate his work at Arizona for the Huskies to be competitive.
The coach's first order of business was retaining quarterback Will Rogers, who has the second-most passing yards in SEC history with 11,551. Rogers worked exclusively out of the Air Raid under Mike Leach and now moves to Fisch's pro-style offense.
Rogers will have plenty of weapons at his disposal, including Arizona running back Jonah Coleman. The junior has been electric in his college career, averaging 4.4 yards after contact with 19 runs of 15 yards or more.
Wideout also Jeremiah Hunter arrives after three years at Cal, where he averaged an explosive 2.3 yards per route run for his career.
My guy Jeremiah Hunter gets a touchdown. He's only a third-year sophomore but Hunter is big, athletic, has great body control, and the speed to win deep. pic.twitter.com/sdrRcHd50y
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 24, 2023
While the skill positions have talent, the pass protection and run blocking from a new offensive line will be under the microscope. Both tackle positions provide minimal experience, with redshirt freshman Soane Faasolo on the blindside and Drew Azzopardi’s six starts from San Diego State at right tackle.
If there's good news for the offensive line, it won't play a dominant defensive trench until Michigan on Oct. 5.
Can Huskies Improve Defensively?
Fisch hired Steve Belichick after a decade-long stint with the New England Patriots as a position coach and play-caller. The coach has implied that the scheme will be whatever best suits the talents of the current roster, but the Huskies' scheme and blitz packages are expected to be aggressive.
Much like the offense, the biggest question marks come in the trench.
Edge Isaiah Ward brings 30 pressures from Arizona, while Zach Durfee sat out a year after being denied eligibility following a transfer from Sioux Falls. Sebastian Valdez also joins from Montana State after racking up 92 pressures in his three-year career.
The linebacker corps and secondary will be the strength of the defense, but any competent rushing attack could keep the defense on the field for long periods.
Washington was docked seven power rating points in the offseason due to below-average grades in TARP. With Fisch undergoing another rebuild similar to Arizona during the pandemic, the market has faded the Huskies since numbers were posted in the spring.
Despite the rebuild, Washington will be a double-digit favorite over the first four weeks of the season. Other games with the Huskies as a favorite come against Rutgers, Indiana and UCLA.
With coin-flips at home against USC and on the road at Iowa, there's plenty of room for Washington to surprise once the roster gets through the first four games.
Look for the Huskies to roll into their first bye week with five wins, making Indiana and UCLA the hedge spots on a deflated win total over.
Pick: Washington Over 6.5 (-110)
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The long battle against perceived nepotism is over. Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, the son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, will not return for the 2024 season.
The Hawkeyes failed to produce a single point in games against Penn State, Michigan and Tennessee. The offense finished 130th or worse in numerous categories, including Success Rate, Line Yards and catchable ball rate.
In 64 drives across the opponent's 40-yard line, Iowa managed just 2.8 points per trip for a rank of 126th.
New Offense in Iowa City
Former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester joins the Hawkeyes as the new offensive coordinator after spending last year as an analyst for the Green Bay Packers following a six-year stretch in the MAC.
Lester was clear that his RPO-heavy system is nothing like what has been run at Kinnick Stadium in the past.
"Tim's fit in really well," Ferentz said. "He's just a high-energy guy. He's got a good grasp of what he wants to do, a good vision of where he wants to go, and he's been very interactive with everybody on the staff.
"His transition has been very seamless, and it's been very natural."
The good news for the Hawkeyes is an offensive line that returns more than 150 starts and quarterback Cade McNamara coming back from an ACL injury.
The bad news is the lack of weapons at the skill positions. Iowa loses its top two targets and returns less than 75 catches from holdover players.
Lester will use heavy pre-snap motion to confuse second-level defenders, running offenses around 28 seconds per play.
Lester called inside zone the most over his final seasons at Western Michigan, which was also the lead run concept for Iowa over the past two years.
Running back Leshon Williams returns as the leading rusher from a season ago, posting modest numbers in elusiveness and breakaway metrics.
Tight end Luke Lachey posted over two yards per route run on 10 catches last year. The junior should be heavily involved in the run-pass option offense this season.
Luke Lachey days until Hawkeye Football.
Despite only recording stats in 2 games last year. Lachey caught 10 passes for 131 yards.
Big year expected for Luke as he continues the legacy of Tight End University. pic.twitter.com/e84jcCZr6u— Phil Parker Fan Account (@dmcbride77) June 7, 2024
Iowa's offense has scored just 20 touchdowns in its past 14 games. Lester led a top-four offense Western Michigan offense from 2017-21 before finishing dead last in 2022.
The bigger question is McNamara’s ability to run RPO after spending time in the pro-style offenses at Michigan and Iowa. Considering backup transfer Brendan Sullivan racked up just 67 yards on designed runs with no explosives, the Iowa offense may need all of September to adapt.
Expect Another Stellar Hawkeyes Defense
On the other side of the ball, there's no expected drop-off for one of the nation's best defenses.
Coordinator Phil Parker has a terrorizing 4-2-5 scheme that runs strict zone coverages with minimal blitz. Iowa finished top-five nationally in preventing explosives, Opponent Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Middle linebacker Jay Higgins also returns with an electric 96 tackles and 54 stops.
Returning at least 80% of counting statistics concerning tackles, passes defensed and pressures, the Hawkeyes will dominate offenses once again.
Iowa projects directly at 8 wins for the season, with a conference win total of 5.8. The Hawkeyes will be favored by six points or more in nine games this season.
Iowa State, Ohio State and Washington are the games that present the biggest roadblock to a second consecutive 10-win season. The Hawkeyes will receive a bye week before traveling to Columbus and have another bye before the final two games of the season.
Despite the loss of star cornerback Cooper DeJean, the defense is good enough to get Iowa to seven wins.
With an entire month to identify the right offensive players for the RPO, look for Iowa to eclipse a conference win total that can be hedged in its final three games as a favorite.
Pick: Iowa Conference Win Total Over 5.5 (+160)
Lincoln Riley knew his seat in Southern California was getting warm after two seasons because of a drop to eight wins despite returning the Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams.
The USC defense was horrendous, allowing at least 28 points in every Pac-12 contest. So, Riley fired long-time coordinator Alex Grinch before going across Los Angeles to hire D’Anton Lynn from the UCLA staff.
Lynn Hire Bodes Well for USC's Defense
The Bruins improved on defense in 2023, moving from 87th to top-15 in total defense while moving to the top 10 in Defensive Havoc.
Lynn, formerly of the Baltimore Ravens, whipped UCLA’s defense into shape with a nickel package that flashed two-to-four down linemen.
The secondary flashed zone on 85% of passing snaps with multiple coverages, from quarters to Cover 1, while implementing a low blitz rate of 22%. UCLA also moved inside the top 40 in broken tackles allowed, finishing fourth in tackles for loss.
Lynn has an all-star cast of coaches on the defensive side of the ball, including former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz as linebackers coach and Houston coordinator Doug Belk as secondary coach.
While the numbers from 2023 are poor, several transfers have arrived in Southern California to reverse the Trojans' poor defense. Linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold brings 81 tackles from Oregon State, while safety Kamari Ramsey brings four pass breakups from Lynn’s UCLA defense a season ago.
No Williams, No Problem
While there's an area of interest offensively in the quarterback battle and within the trench, USC expects to have the most explosive offense in the Big Ten.
Quarterback Miller Moss dominated in the Holiday Bowl, throwing for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns against Louisville. Former UNLV signal-caller Jayden Maiava also joins the Trojans after throwing 14 touchdowns to just six interception in the Go-Go offense last season.
Whichever quarterback wins the battle in fall camp will have the opportunity to throw to the league's most explosive target and punt returner in Zachariah Branch.
While Riley's offense shouldn't slow down, the offensive line does have plenty of questions with less than 60% of snaps returning from a season ago.
Center Jonah Monheim returns the most snaps, grading out as the best returning pass blocker. Redshirt freshman Elijah Paige lands on the opposite end of the spectrum. The highly-touted blindside tackle saw just 36 snaps last season.
USC's schedule ranks as one of the 30 toughest in the nation, starting with LSU and Notre Dame in nonconference play.
Conference road travel then includes trips to Michigan and Washington, while Penn State and Nebraska visit the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
USC will be favored in seven games, while LSU, Michigan and Penn State project to be a favorite of six points or more against the Trojans.
USC will challenge for eight wins this season, and its Big Ten projection lands at six wins in the conference.
The good news for the offensive line is that it dodges the best defensive fronts in the conference in Ohio State, Oregon, and Iowa. The Trojans will receive a bye week before facing two talented defensive fronts from Michigan and Nebraska.
With cross-country travel ending on Oct. 19 at Maryland, USC should avoid any blustery cold-weather games.
Despite the departure of Williams, USC should still have a solid season thanks to the defense's expected improvement. The offensive line could be choppy in the opener against LSU but will have more experience before Big Ten play opens.
For the Trojans to contend in the Big Ten, Michigan and Penn State will be must-win games. USC has massive potential if its defense can rise to a mid-FBS level, so look for the Trojans to eclipse conference expectations.
Pick: USC Conference Win Total Over 5.5 (+100)
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The reigning national champions had plenty of coaching shuffle in the offseason.
First, Jim Harbaugh left to coach the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL, leaving Sherrone Moore to take a promotion to head coach after serving as offensive coordinator.
Moore elevated his offensive staff, so the Wolverines are not expected to have any changes to their offensive personnel or scheme. However, the defense will go through another coordinator with ties to the Baltimore Ravens.
Anticipate Same Schemes Despite Michigan's Coaching Changes
Wink Martindale is the architect of the Ravens defense that was adopted by Michigan years ago. After Michigan previously hired former Ravens coaches Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter as DC, Moore seeked out the innovator of the scheme in Martindale.
The new defensive coordinator is coming off a failed season with the New York Giants but will bring the same concepts with a little more aggressiveness.
The line is the strength of the defense, led by Mason Graham who provided 20 pressures and 11 hurries a season ago. Derrick Moore is the next great edge position from Michigan after producing more than 20 pressures in limited action last year. Nickel Zeke Berry has large shoes to fill with the loss of Mike Sainristil.
The biggest question for Michigan will be at the quarterback position, where dual-threat Alex Orji will battle sixth-year senior Jack Tuttle.
Moore will decide on the best fit for the offense, but neither will run the offense quite like JJ McCarthy did last season.
Three seniors remain on the offensive line, which will pave holes for running back Donovan Edwards.
DONOVAN EDWARDS AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/paYMvsonl5
— Matthew (@HildenbrandMa) January 9, 2024
When it comes to Michigan, expect a more aggressive defense complemented by a heavy rush rate on offense.
Don't Expect Big Drop-Off
The Wolverines project at 9.8 wins with a conference with total of 7.3. Importantly, they avoid Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska, so conference games against Ohio State and Oregon will provide the most rush resistance.
The key to Michigan futures comes in the number of defensive front sevens that can stop the Wolverines' rushing attack.
Michigan will be a comfortable favorite in at least eight games on the season while projecting as a favorite of less than 7 on the road at Washington. Oregon and Texas, meanwhile, will be coin-flip games in Ann Arbor.
To close out the season, Ohio State should be no more than a touchdown favorite.
With only three teams on the schedule that could come close to beating the Wolverines, look to take Michigan over 9 at plus-money — a number that's completely deflated in the market.
If the number resides at a flat 8.5 before Week 0, consider other options.
Pick: Michigan Over 9 (+115)
Dan Lanning was hired in 2022 after serving on Kirby Smart’s defensive staff at Georgia for four years. The hiring signified that Oregon, a Pac-12 team, would begin to build a roster similar to the SEC, from the trenches outward.
The move to the Big Ten provided further reasoning for the Ducks to fill the recruiting pipeline with offensive and defensive linemen while still branching out to find the best skill-position players in college football.
Best Oregon Team in Lanning Era?
This could be the best Lanning-led Oregon team even after a Fiesta Bowl blowout over Liberty on New Year's Day.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transfers in from Oklahoma to inherit arguably the best offensive line and group of pass-catchers in college football.
Wearing No. 8 in honor of fellow Hawaiian Marcus Mariota, Gabriel will have two of the best offensive tackles in the nation protecting him in Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr. In nearly 900 pass-blocking snaps combined, Cornelius and Conerly allowed a single sack and just three quarterback hits in all of 2023.
If there's a concern on the line, it's new center Iapani Laloulu, although the sophomore did play 330 snaps at three interior positions last year without giving up a single pressure.
Jordan James returns at running back after averaging 4.1 yards after contact, giving the Ducks a primary red-zone weapon with 10 rushing touchdowns.
The juice on this offense comes from a handful of targets that define explosiveness.
Slot Tez Johnson brings back 87 targets after averaging 3.3 yards per route run, and former Alabama transfer Traeshon Holden returns to Eugene after a 452-yard, six-touchdown season.
The biggest addition from a receivers perspective is former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart. Stewart joins the Ducks after finishing with over two yards per route run and an average depth of target at 14.4 yards in Bobby Petrino's offense.
Can’t wait to see Evan Stewart ball out pic.twitter.com/Y9NZWgjSoLhttps://t.co/ftc0JctQw9
— Austin 🦆 (@deviousduck_) June 17, 2024
The defense is Big Ten-ready, with all three levels projected as high as the perennial defenses from Iowa and Penn State.
The Ducks have one of the highest rankings in defensive TARP, a measurement of returning experience and inbound transfer portal personnel. The portal is responsible for many of the players in the secondary, including safety Kobe Savage from Kansas State and second-team all-Pac-12 cornerback Jabbar Muhammad from Washington.
Linebacker Jeffrey Bassa served as the source of Havoc last season, leading the team in quarterback hits while producing high coverage grades by not allowing a single touchdown to opposing quarterbacks.
Jeffrey Bassa seals it with a pick 6! 😱 pic.twitter.com/SzFb3wiqZB
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 10, 2023
Ducks Already a Threat in Big Ten
Despite nonconference games against Oregon State and Boise State, the Ducks are expected to be favorites of at least 17 points in all instances leading up to a home game against Ohio State on Oct. 12.
Oregon will also be a double-digit favorite in every game after that, excluding a Nov. 2 trip to Ann Arbor to face the reigning national champion in Michigan.
Oregon’s floor is a 10-win regular season, while the ceiling is a national title.
The price for Oregon to make the CFP at -300 has taken justifiable steam in the market, making the best remaining bet a Big Ten title wager.
Considering Ohio State comes to Eugene, the focus becomes how well the Ducks' new defensive interior can play in a coin-flip game against Michigan. However, neither game should keep Oregon from taking down the conference title in Indianapolis.
Pick: Oregon to Win Big Ten (+215)
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No college football program reloads at the coordinator position quite like Penn State. With offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and defensive coordinator Manny Diaz moving on, head coach James Franklin selected two of the best minds to lead those units.
Offensively, Andy Kotelnicki terrorized the Big 12 with his Kansas offense that was loaded with pre-snap motion and misdirection after the snap. Defensively, Tom Allen returns to his coordinator roots after a long stint as the head coach of Indiana.
Although there's roster turnover on the defensive side of the ball, Penn State expects to have a top-three Big Ten unit up front, at linebacker and in the secondary.
Abdul Carter changes positions from linebacker to edge after generating 31 stops — a complete failure by the offense, per PFF — in his 32 tackles.
The secondary must replace two of the most productive players in Nittany Lion history, but the unit gained some Bulldogs in former Georgia cornerback AJ Harris and former Georgia and Florida cornerback Jalen Kimber.
Penn State Offense Will Dictate Its Ceiling
The offense will certainly be a must-watch on Saturdays with a new coordinator.
Quarterback Drew Allar returns after a protective sophomore season. Allar was limited in downfield passing for most of the 2023 season before going deep 33 times after PSU's loss to Michigan.
Allar took care of the ball with a 23:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but with the protectiveness came a rank of 125th in Pass EPA.
In the backfield, Penn State returns plenty of experience from running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen despite subpar seasons on the ground. Singleton took a massive step back in yards after contact, while Allen’s rate of creating missed tackles plummeted.
The wide receiver and offense line will replace plenty of contributors, but the arrival of former Ohio State wide receiver Julian Fleming could be the dynamite needed for Kotelnicki’s offense.
That's an important addition because Allar didn't show much through the air at Penn State's spring game.
2 full minutes of Drew Allar “highlights” from the Penn State spring game on Saturday.
Warning. This is tough to watch. pic.twitter.com/BdSjE9E0yn
— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) April 15, 2024
Kotelnicki confused plenty of defenses when his offense hit the field. Kansas pivoted frequently between under center, pistol and shotgun formations with 11, 12 and 21 personnel, including a heavy amount of outside zone man and counter calls in no-huddle situations. The Jayhawks' pre-snap tendencies were a nightmare for defensive coordinators.
Like Michigan, the offense will dictate Penn State's ceiling in 2024.
Can Nittany Lions Finally Make College Football Playoff?
PSU's conference schedule dodges a few of the top-tier teams in Michigan and Oregon, but it still features an Ohio State team that has beaten the Nittany Lions in seven straight games.
Penn State will be a double-digit favorite in 10 games this season, with the closest contests coming against the Buckeyes and USC.
With two MAC teams in nonconference play, the new coordinators have plenty of time to get the roster on track. Because 10 wins are expected from a schedule that lacks contenders, look for James Franklin to cash in on the expanded postseason field with a trip to the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Penn State to Make College Football Playoff (-140)
The Buckeyes faithful know that 2024 will be a make-or-break year in the Ryan Day era.
Ohio State reached the National Championship during the 2020 pandemic season before being run out of the building by Alabama, but important wins have been tough to come by since.
Day led Ohio State to a 2022 Rose Bowl victory over a Utah team without Cam Rising but lost two consecutive bowl games in the Peach Bowl CFP semifinal in 2022 and last year's Cotton Bowl to Missouri. Plus, the Buckeyes have lost three straight to Michigan in the regular season.
Ultimately, the goal remains the same this season: beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and win the national title.
Why Adding Chip Kelly is Huge for Buckeyes
Those goals are a possibility, as Day pulled a coup on the newest member of the conference. In February, UCLA head coach Chip Kelly decided to leave Westwood to become the new offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes.
The storied history between Day and Kelly started when Day was a quarterback at New Hampshire. Eventually, Day served as offensive coordinator under Kelly from 1999-2001.
Kelly ditched the tasks that have been added to the plates of head coaches across the country — namely NIL, the transfer portal and a calendar that requires attention every day. Now, he'll simply do what he always wanted: coach.
With Kelly leading the offense, the Buckeyes will look to spread the field while utilizing a heavy rush attack with zone-read concepts.
The transfer portal provided a number of weapons for Kelly to tap into when running his offense. Most importantly, quarterback Will Howard slides in from Kansas State to join Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins.
In terms of returners, running back TreVeyon Henderson brings back his 3.7 yards-after-contact mark, while wide receiver Emeka Egbuka returns after racking up 156 career targets.
The offensive line returns plenty of names and above-average experience, but there are still questions surrounding the unit.
Tegra Tshabola will take a guard position after blocking on just 27 snaps last year. The left side of the line will feature Donovan Jackson at guard and Josh Simmons at tackle, but both graded out poorly in run-blocking a season ago.
Finally, Seth McLaughlin transfers from Alabama to take over at center. McLaughlin had severe issues snapping the ball in critical moments for the Crimson Tide a season ago, even up until the last play in the Rose Bowl semifinal against Alabama.
Kelly is sure to make this a priority in his shotgun and pistol-based offense after running just 57 plays under center at UCLA last season.
Ohio State can't win a national title without elite play at the quarterback position. That means Howard will be under a microscope in Columbus.
Howard has generated 31 big-time throws to 35 turnover-worthy plays in his four-year career, closing out his time in Manhattan with a near-even ratio in 2023. Howard’s turnover-worthy play rate nearly doubles with pressure, a consistent issue in the Buckeyes' spring game.
The good news for Kelly is his mobility, as Howard has racked up over 1,000 career yards off designed runs.
Defense Will Be Buckeyes' Strength
The strength of Ohio State will come on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes return at least 79% of pressures, tackles and pass breakups from a season ago.
Both Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams graded out in the top 60 in individual defensive interior run-stopper rankings last season. Elsewhere up front, Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau rank in the top 100 of all edge players in pass rush productivity, per PFF.
In the secondary, Denzel Burke and Lathan Ransom bring back top-200 ranks to the Buckeyes' coverage grades.
However, Ohio State’s prized possession comes from the transfer portal in the form of Alabama safety Caleb Downs. The sophomore lined up primarily as a free safety or over the slot, breaking up five passes while allowing only two touchdowns on 45 targets.
Ohio State's schedule has a few complications, as three conference teams will be coming off a bye week. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in nine games, projecting as a coin-flip at Oregon and a field-goal favorite against Penn State.
The spots are interesting, though, as the Buckeyes host Iowa in a grind of a game before making the trip to Eugene. Ohio State also travels to State College this season in what is sure to be a raucous atmosphere for the Nittany Lions.
Additionally, the Indiana game is a sneaky spot before Thanksgiving, as the Hoosiers are coming off a bye week and will hope to catch the Buckeyes looking ahead to "The Game" against Michigan.
There are a number of off-the-field questions about this squad heading into fall camp as well. Howard has reportedly lost a considerable amount of weight, and Judkins was a consistent source of distress for Ole Miss due to NIL complaints and an apparent beef with the offensive line.
Questions also exist on the field. Due to the absence of tackling in the spring game, it's hard to say just how physical this roster will be against the heavyweights of the Big Ten.
Ohio State projects at 10.6 wins on the season, but a stumble against a revitalized Penn State offense or Oregon's elite playmakers could jeopardize the program's three main goals.
Based on Big Ten win totals, Ohio State has a 71% chance to win 10 games, which is where the Buckeyes' College Football Playoff hopes lie. That number correlates to odds of -245, well below the market number on OSU to make the playoff.
While Ohio State is assuredly a national title contender, any number north of +220 for the Buckeyes to miss the playoff has value.
Pick: Ohio State to Not Make College Football Playoff (+425)
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Big Ten Futures & Best Bets
- Purdue: Under 2.5 Big Ten Wins (+130)
- Michigan State: Under 5 (-115)
- Nebraska: Under 4.5 Big Ten Wins (-115)
- UCLA: Hawaii +13.5 vs. UCLA (Game of the Year)
- Illinois: Under 5.5 (-120)
- Northwestern: Over 4.5 (-120)
- Minnesota: Under 5.5 (-120)
- Wisconsin: Under 7 (-115)
- Maryland: Under 6.5 (-125)
- Indiana: Over 5.5 (+100)
- Rutgers: Over 6.5 (+120)
- Washington: Over 6.5 (-110)
- Iowa: Over 5.5 Big Ten Wins (+160)
- USC: Over 5.5 Big Ten Wins (+100)
- Michigan: Over 9 (+115)
- Oregon: To Win Big Ten (+215)
- Penn State: To Make College Football Playoff (-140)
- Ohio State: To Not Make College Football Playoff (+425)
