Football has returned, and for the lovers of both the college and professional game, that means Week 0 and Week 1 are on the horizon.
Let's look at the first two weeks of action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the opener of the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Georgia The Favorite Again
Georgia is listed as the favorite to win it all this year at +300 odds after being favored to win it all last year at +225.
Since 2016, we’ve only had three different schools be listed as the favorite entering the season: Georgia (2022-23), Alabama (2016-18, 2021-22), Clemson (2019-20) — and each was favored in back-to-back years in this span.
Let’s look back at how favorites entering the year performed dating back to 2001.
- Twenty-two of 23 won 10-plus games straight-up (SU). USC won seven games in 2012. They average 11.7 wins/season, including 12.7 over the last decade.
- Since USC in 2012, no favorite has lost more than three games SU.
- The shortest odds for a favorite in this span goes to 2022 Alabama (+190), 2018 Alabama (+175) and 2005 USC (+160).
- With Georgia at +300 this year, of the 17 teams to be listed as the favorite at under +400 odds, 16 of them had two losses or fewer (2011 Oklahoma).
- How do teams perform against the spread (ATS) for the season after being listed as the favorite?
- 9-of-23 finished below .500 ATS
- 4-of-23 finished exactly .500 ATS
- 10-of-23 finished above .500 ATS
- All 23 teams are 151-155-4 ATS
- In terms of winning their bowl game/CFP, five teams had to play two playoff games:
- Alabama (2016-18, 2021)
- 2017 Alabama was the only one to win both games.
- Clemson (2019)
- Alabama (2016-18, 2021)
- The favorites to lose their only bowl/playoff game in the last 15 years were:
- 2020 Clemson
- 2014 Florida State
- 2013 Alabama
- 2012 USC
- In terms of the final AP Poll, these 23 teams averaged a final finish of 4.7 in the Top 25.
- Only two finished outside the top 10:
- 2011 Oklahoma
- 2006 Notre Dame
- Since 2016 Alabama, all eight teams have finished top-five in the final AP Poll
- Looking at the 19 favorites to have a posted win total since 2005:
- 11-4-5 to the over
- Going over by an average of 0.8 wins/year
- Of the four teams to go under, three went under by 0.5 wins with only 2012 USC going under by more (3.5 wins)
Totals Are Dropping
Here are the average over/unders by season in both college football and the NFL. The theme? They all seem to be dropping from their peak during the 2020 COVID season.
Percent Change in O/U between 2020 and 2023: CFB: 8.1% decrease · NFL: 10.8% decrease
Biggest Opener Upsets: Whose Next?
Which team can open the season with a real upset? Here's the list of the biggest upsets in an opener since 1990.
Biggest Upsets in CFB Opener since 1990
- 2017: Howard over UNLV -45
- 2012: Texas State over Houston -34.5
- 2017: Liberty over Baylor -32.5
- 2007: Appalachian State over Michigan -31
- 2015: Portland State over Washington State -31
- 2012: Louisiana Monroe over Arkansas -30
Offensive Nightmares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games in regard to the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 303-237-1 (56.1%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later (202-148, 57.7%).
Focus On The Wind
Wind is your best friend — if you bet under, that is.
In college football games with 10-plus MPH winds, the under is above .500 in each of the last 15 seasons dating back to 2009. In that span, the under is 1221-1022-25 (54.4%), with a $100 bettor up almost $11,500 or 5.1% ROI.
All About Discipline
Let's talk Service Academies for a second — Army, Navy and Air Force.
- When facing non-Service Academy teams, they've been a good ATS bet later in the season. In the last decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 86-57-2 ATS (60.1%) in November and December for a +16% ROI. From August through October, they are a combined one game below .500 ATS.
- In the last 20 seasons, the under is 45-10-2 (81.8%) in Service Academy games between Army, Navy and Air Force, including 26-3-1 in the last decade.
- When facing non-Service Academy teams, they've been a good ATS bet as underdogs against the first-half spread. In the last decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 71-47 ATS (60.2%) for a +16% ROI as underdogs against the first half spread — being .500 ATS or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Familiar Unders
Going back 20 years using Bet Labs, Power 5 teams playing a conference island game ("island" refers to any game played outside of a Saturday in college football) have seen their games go under the total 55.7% of the time. With a near-400 game sample, a $100 bettor would have an ROI of almost 8%.
Full matches for this system can be found below.
CFB Team Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Country Big Home Dog
West Virginia is a 10.5-point underdog at home vs. Penn State. The Mountaineers are very rare double-digit home dogs in this spot — this is the first time since 2019 and just the eighth time since 2000.
- Oct. 5, 2019 — +10.5 vs. Texas (L, 42-31)
- Sept. 28, 2013 — +19.5 vs. Oklahoma State (W, 30-21)
- Nov. 17, 2012 — +10.5 vs. Oklahoma (L, 50-49)
- Oct. 1, 2005 — +10 vs. Virginia Tech (L, 34-17)
- Oct. 22, 2003 — +14 vs. Virginia Tech (W, 28-7)
- Oct. 26, 2002 — +20 vs. Miami (FL) (L, 40-23)
- Oct. 6, 2001 — +15.5 vs. Virginia Tech (L, 35-0)
The Bet Labs database for college football goes back to 2005, which is 20 years this season. The most profitable coach against the spread in August and September is James Franklin at 32-17-2 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,428.
Buckeyes Large Spread
Ohio State has played 63 games under Ryan Day (33-27-3 ATS), and he has been a 50-point favorite just once — against Rutgers on the road back in 2019 (won 56-21).
The Buckeyes are 50.5-point favorites against Akron in their opener on Aug. 31.
Trojans Hate The Dog Role
USC beat Louisville as an underdog in the Holiday Bowl last year, breaking a 10-game SU losing streak as an underdog dating back to 2019.
Over the last decade, USC is 5-26 SU, and 10-21 ATS as an underdog. That's the worst ATS win percentage among any school with 30-plus games as a dog in that span (125 schools).
USC hasn’t won a game SU as an underdog of six points or more since Nov. 12, 2016, vs. Washington when Sam Darnold beat Jake Browning.
Rainbow Opener Warriors
Hawaii is 12-2 ATS in its opener since 2010 (1-2 ATS in last three years). The Rainbow Warriors have been a 'dog in 13 of those 14 games.
Since 2010, Hawaii is tied with Alabama with the best ATS record in openers.
Hawaii opens up against Delaware State on Aug. 24.
The Volunteer Half
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 40-17-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches (+$1,918, +32.5% ROI). That includes a mark of 22-7-1 1H ATS away from home.
Syracuse Avoids The Upset
Syracuse is a 16-point favorite against Ohio in its opener. Since 2000, the Orange are 37-0 SU and 25-10-2 ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite.
Big Ten Dominance
Minnesota opens the season facing North Carolina, which means it's another Big Ten vs. ACC matchup. Since 2017, the Big Ten is 24-15-1 ATS vs. the ACC, going .500 ATS or better in six of the last seven seasons.
In that span, the ACC is their second-most profitable conference opponent behind just the MAC.
CFB Win Total, Futures Trends
Florida's Low Expectations
Florida's win total sits at 4.5 — the Gators' lowest win total since at least 2005.
Florida is listed as a home underdog in its opener against Miami. It has been a home 'dog in its opener once since 1990 — back in 2022 against Utah, a 29-26 Gators win.
Since 1990, Florida has been a home 'dog (HD) to just eight schools — Florida State, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Auburn, Utah and now Miami.
They are 2-8 SU/ATS as a HD vs. FSU in that span.
The Gators are 250-1 to win it all this year with their odds getting longer by the year.
- 2024: 250-1
- 2023: 200-1
- 2022: 100-1
- 2021: 50-1
Low Tide
Alabama’s projected win total is 9.5 entering this season — the first time it's been under 10 since 2015 and just the second time since 2009.
With odds of 15-1 to win, this is their first year at 10-1 or higher since 2009 and their longest odds since 2008 when they were 60-1.
Problem of the Corn
Nebraska’s win total for the 2024 season sits at 7.5. It hasn’t eclipsed its win total since 2016 — which is also its last bowl appearance in Mike Riley’s second-to-last season.
The Cornhuskers have gone under their win total in six straight seasons, each year by 1.5 wins or more and by an average of 2.9 wins per season.
Luck of the Irish
Notre Dame’s win total sits at 10.5 for the 2024 season — which would be its highest win total mark since the 2006 and 2007 seasons.
Falling Boomer
Oklahoma’s win total sits at 7.5 for the 2024 season — its lowest win total mark since 2000.
The Sooners are 66-1 to win it all this year and have been 50-1 or longer three years in a row after never being above 30-1 to win it all between 2000-21.
Duck's Return
Oregon’s win total sits at 10.5 for the 2024 season, which would be its highest win total mark since 2014. The Ducks have eclipsed their win total in four straight seasons since 2019 — not counting the 2020 pandemic season.
White Hot
Penn State’s win total sits at 10 for the 2024 season, which would be its highest win total mark since 2000.
Can Tennessee Break The Trend?
Tennessee’s win total sits at 9 for the 2024 season. In the last 15 years, the Volunteers have had a win total of 9 or more twice before this season, going under the win total both times (2023 and 2016).
Long-Odds
Texas’ win total sits at 10 for the 2024 season — which would be its highest win total mark since the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Its +775 odds to win it all is also its lowest since 2009.
Aggie Anguish
Texas A&M’s win total sits at 8.5 for the 2024 season. The Aggies have gone under their win total in five straight seasons, including the 2020 pandemic season when they had a win total of 9.5 and went 9-1.
Since 2013, Texas A&M has gone 2-6-3 to its win total over.
When its win total sits at 8 or higher, Texas A&M is 0-6-1 since 2010.
California Dreaming
UCLA’s win total sits at 4.5 for the 2024 season, which is its lowest win total mark since 2008.
The Trojan Horse
USC's win total sits at 7.5 for the 2024 season. This would be the fourth time since 2010 that USC has a win total below 8. In each of the previous three seasons with a win total below 8, the Trojans eclipsed their win total.
- 2024: 7.5
- 2019: 7 (over with 8 wins)
- 2016: 7.5 (over with 9 wins)
- 2011: 7.5 (over with 10 wins)
Down Badger
Wisconsin’s win total sits at 6.5 for the 2024 season, which would be its lowest win total mark in the last 20 years.
Clemson Retools?
Clemson is 45-1 to win the National Championship this season — its longest odds since 2014 when it was 75-1.
Climbing Up Boulder
Colorado is 125-1 to win it all in Deion Sanders’ second season in Boulder. The Buffaloes' odds to win it all are at least on the way down over the past few years.
- 2024: 125-1
- 2023: 250-1
- 2022: 500-1
- 2021: 750-1
- 2020: COVID
- 2019: 5000-1
