I don't put too much weight into against-the-spread trends since most are usually just noise and betting markets adjust over time.
That said, at a bare minimum, I do find them a tad bit interesting for one-off unique events like conference championships in college football.
Here's a quick summary of the ones I dug up to help you prepare for the upcoming championship weekend, which will mark the first since 2006 without a favorite of more than a touchdown.
Conference Championship Betting Trends for Spreads
Home & Road 'Dogs
In all conference championships since 2005, underdogs have gone 70-65-3 (51.8% ATS), per Action Labs.
True home and road underdogs have performed better at 26-20 (56.5%) than neutral-site underdogs at 45-45-3 (50.0%), which I chalk up to primarily random noise.
Here are a few other underdog-related nuggets:
- Underdogs catching more than 7 points: 30-30 ATS (50.0%)
- Best conference underdogs: MAC (13-5-1, 72.2%)
- Worst conference underdogs: ACC (8-11, 42.1%)
Unranked Advantage
Also, unranked teams have enjoyed a decent amount of past success ATS against ranked teams in conference title games, going 16-9 (64.0%) with an average cover margin of more than a touchdown per game.
This year, only Tulane fits that mold.
Fun Belt Fade
With Louisiana set to host Marshall in the conference championship game, it's worth noting how poor Sun Belt home teams have performed in league games over the past two decades.
Since 2005, they have gone just 347-442-9 (44.0%) ATS, failing to cover by 1.15 points per game. With a -14.8% ROI, that's the worst of any conference.
Only the MAC is in the same ballpark with a -11.5% ROI — although, keep in mind how much realignment has occurred in recent seasons.
ATS Merchants
This weekend will feature a handful of the best teams against the number this season:
- Marshall 11-1 (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
- Arizona State 10-2
- Tulane 9-3
- Ohio 8-4
Marshall and Arizona State are the only two teams in the country with double-digit covers on the year.
Arizona State and Ohio enter this weekend with five straight covers. However, none of the past seven teams that have played in their conference title with a five-plus game cover streak have covered.
On the other end of the spectrum, Georgia (3-9 ATS) finished the regular season with one of the worst records against the closing number.
Looking for Revenge
This weekend, four matchups involve teams seeking revenge for a loss during the regular season:
- UNLV at Boise State (UNLV lost by 5)
- Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky (Jax State lost by 1)
- Ohio vs. Miami Ohio (Ohio lost by 10)
- Texas vs. Georgia (Texas lost by 15)
So, do teams that lost the first clash have an edge the second time around in the conference title? Not from an against-the-spread perspective, as they've gone just 27-27.
However, 36 of the 54 (66.7%) teams improved their scoring margin in the second meeting by an average of 7.7 points. That includes three underdogs that lost in OT — two of which didn’t cover.
I'd say the team that is more likely to make bigger adjustments after losing the first meeting holds a slight edge — although the market appears to generally price these spots efficiently.
Look no further than the adjustment on the Boise State-UNLV line with the Rebels catching a similar number on the road as they did at home earlier this season.
Coaching Tidbits
Here are some relevant coaching ATS nuggets for this weekend's matchups:
- Georgia's Kirby Smart is 26-15 ATS (63.4%) vs. ranked opponents. Conversely, Penn State's James Franklin is just 18-24 ATS (42.9%), including 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) against top-five competition. Franklin hasn't defeated a top-five opponent since October 2016. Since then, he's lost 11 straight.
- Iowa State's Matt Campbell is 35-22 (61.4%) ATS as an underdog, covering by over four points per game. If you include the postseason, Army head coach Jeff Monken has fared even better at 39-24-2 ATS (61.9%), covering by 4.5 points per game. Although, he's just 6-8 ATS in this role at home. Over the past 10 years, service academies have gone 96-66 ATS (59%) in the 1H as underdogs.
- Tulane's Jon Sumrall is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) as a favorite, covering by over a touchdown per game. That includes a perfect 11-0 ATS record when laying points on the road. However, teams that lost as a double-digit favorite prior to their conference championship game have gone just 5-10 SU and ATS.
- Sumrall has gone 3-0 SU against service academies over the past three seasons with a pair of road shutouts, including one earlier this season at Navy. His Troy and Tulane teams held those opponents to nine total points across three contests.
- Clemson's Dabo Swinney is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) as an underdog on a neutral field, covering by over 11 points per game. Swinney has won eight straight conference championship games. Clemson enters this weekend on a three-game losing streak against the number. Since 2005, other teams on similar or worse skids have gone 7-0 SU and ATS in their conference title game.
Conference Championship Betting Trends for Totals
Conference Craze
Since 2005, overs in conference championship games have gone 71-68-1 (51.1%). Right around 50%, as you'd expect, especially with closing totals getting even more efficient later in the season and a market that continues to get sharper with each passing season.
For what it's worth, the Mountain West and Big 12 have been the best under conference championships at 8-3 and 9-4, respectively.
Meanwhile, the SEC has treated over bettors the best at 13-5-1 (72.2%) with all of those premier athletes getting to play on a fast track in a temperature-controlled environment.
Additional Over/Under Info
Here are some other interesting total tidbits:
- Totals of 45 points or lower have gone 9-3 to the over, which only applies to Miami (OH) vs. Ohio as of the time of writing.
- At 48 or lower, overs have gone 18-13 after an 0-4 finish in 2023, which would bring Tulane-Army into the mix.
- Overs in indoor venues are 36-28-1 (56.25%) since 2005, clearing the closing total by an average of approximately 2.0 points per game, which is a touch higher than the upward dome adjustment I personally make. For reference, conferences that will play indoors this weekend include the Big Ten, Big 12, MAC and SEC.
- Freezing temperatures are expected in West Point. Since 2005, conference championship unders in those conditions have gone 7-3, staying under by more than a touchdown per game on average.
- The two best under teams this season playing this weekend are Clemson and Texas, which each finished 7-4-1 to the under.
