The bracket is set and now it's time to play the games. The 12-team College Football Playoff has arrived.
Here's Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
The Setup
The College Football Playoff has been around since 2014. Each year we have had three games per season. In these matchups, favorites are 21-9 straight up (SU) and 16-14 against the spread (ATS), and totals are dead even at 15-15.
With 12 games on the slate for this year’s version, let’s explore a few angles for each game.
Indiana went through 2024 mostly listed as a favorite and mostly covering those games. This is just the Hoosiers' second game as an underdog in 2024 — they lost 38-15 as a 10.5-point underdog to Ohio State.
The role of the underdog has not been great for the Hoosiers, who are 2-26 SU and 10-18 ATS since 2021. Of course, that hasn’t all been this Curt Cignetti team. With IU and James Madison, Cignetti has been a 'dog four times; he’s an even 2-2 SU/ATS.
Overall this season, Indiana is 9-3 ATS and 9-3 to the over, both one of the top marks in college football. Only one team had more overs this year entering this week (UConn). Notre Dame holds the same 9-3 ATS mark.
Notre Dame and Indiana have terrific turnover margins, both in the top five in averages. When two teams with an average of +1 or higher meet, the favorite has dominated over the last two decades, going 42-9 SU and 29-19-3 ATS.
Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame is 21-4 SU as a favorite of six points or more.
The potential issue? Three of those four losses have come against high-powered scoring offenses (teams averaging 35+ PPG) – Freeman is just 4-3 SU in those games.
Notre Dame has dominated the Big Ten in recent history. It is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in those games, and as a favorite of three points or more, it is 5-0 SU/ATS vs. the Big Ten in that span.
In the College Football Playoff era, SEC teams have been listed as an underdog three times and they are 0-3 SU in those games, losing by 8.3 PPG. Now, two of those games featured Alabama and Georgia against each other, but the underdog lost outright.
Overall, the SEC has dominated the Big Ten, finishing .500 SU or better in 16 of the last 18 years. Overall, an SEC team has closed +7 or higher vs. a Big Ten team 14 times since 1990 — split even 7-7 SU.
Both Texas and Ohio State are coming off losses facing an opponent not in that spot during the first round of the playoff. For SMU and Penn State, they are both coming off losses – so cross that off. Since 2014, playoff teams entering their game off a SU loss were 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS.
Ohio State will be a favorite in a College Football Playoff game for just the second time, closing -1 against Clemson back in 2016, which turned into a 31-0 loss.
The last time Ohio State closed as a favorite of seven points or more in a playoff-type atmosphere was in its 2007 BCS National Championship game vs. Florida. The Buckeyes were -7 and lost 41-14. The Buckeyes are 1-3 SU as favorites in the playoff/BCS era since that 2007 game.
The Buckeyes have closed with a total under 50 six times in 12 games this year. Those games are 6-0 to the under, while their six games listed at 50 or higher were 5-1 to the over.
Tennessee found themselves above .500 against the first-half spread entering this point, even with ups and downs. At UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel is 54-27-2 (67%) against the first-half spread, including on a three-game winning streak entering this matchup.
In neutral site/away games, Heupel is 30-9-1 1H ATS, covering by over a FG per game.
Both SMU and Penn State suffered ranking-altering losses before this first-round matchup.
This will be the first matchup of teams both off a SU loss. But since 2000, when two ranked teams play both off of a SU loss, the favorite is 26-11 SU and 21-15-1 ATS, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 2019.
James Franklin finds himself in a big game, but a big game as a favorite. SMU is ranked 11th in the polls entering this contest.
Franklin has faced 39 opponents ranked in the top 15; he is 7-32 SU in those games and this would be his biggest favorite in any of those 39 games. As either a favorite or an underdog of four pts or fewer, he is 4-10 SU vs. top-15 teams.
With Penn State under .500 ATS for the season, this would be the highest spread as a favorite for a team under .500 ATS in the playoff since its inception in 2014. The only other teams to close -4 or higher lost outright — 2020-21 Clemson and 2014-15 Alabama.
With Penn State off a loss, it's worth noting Franklin is 18-4 SU, but just 9-12-1 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more off of a SU loss.
So far during his stretch at SMU, Rhett Lashlee's squad has gone with their role mostly. As a favorite, 26-4 SU (17-13 ATS) and as an underdog they are 3-7 SU (4-6 ATS), but in 2024 they are 2-0 SU as 'dogs, with both of those games going over the total.
Texas has been dominant as a big favorite. Since 2022, the Longhorns are 22-0 as a double-digit favorite.
The most wins without a loss list looks like Steve Sarkisian, Jim Harbaugh, James Franklin and Kirby Smart.
This is the largest spread of the weekend, with Texas laying over double digits against Dabo Swinney and Clemson. This would be the ninth team to be a double-digit underdog in the College Football Playoff, with the eight previous teams going 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS, with those games also 6-2 to the under.
Looking at the CFP era, we’ve had just three upsets of seven points or more, which a few teams could add their names to given the spread this week:
- +8, Ohio State over Alabama (2014-15)
- +7.5, TCU over Michigan (2021-22)
- +7 Ohio State over Clemson (2020-21)
This would be Clemson's biggest line as an underdog in not only CFP playoff history, but their second-biggest line in any game since 2012, behind closing +14 against Georgia earlier this year. In the last 30 years, this would be Clemson's biggest underdog in any non-regular season game.
With Texas, Ohio State and Penn State all coming off losses but listed as a favorite, it's worth noting in non-regular season games, teams off a loss who are listed as a favorite are 60-24 SU and 47-36-1 ATS in their next game.
Different Season
This system looks at fading high-scoring offenses in bowl season, which is a similar frame to these matchups.
Matches: Penn State, Tennessee (Bet on)
Off Target
In ranked vs. ranked matchups, the favorite has been a good bet.
Since 2020, they're 57% ATS and 24-20 ATS this season. That includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas.
Falling Knife
Beware of falling totals.
Unders that see the total drop at least two points from the opening to closing line are just 41% to the under on that closing line this season.
Check live lines via the Action Network for matches.
