Week 0 of the college football season is finally upon us, and what a beautiful time it is.
Amidst all the excitement is the first season with a 12-team College Football Playoff implemented.
Many have opinions on it, — should be an eight-team or 16-team playoff instead? — but that’s neither here nor there.
A 12-team playoff opens the door for many programs that usually aren’t included in the prestigious postseason event. For bettors, it could pose as a promising and profitable time as well.
I've taken the liberty of compiling three sleepers that could make the College Football Playoff. Because we're talking about sleepers here, I’ve decided to keep my picks at +1000 or longer.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
+1000 to Make CFP
I’m a big believer in what Nebraska is building.
In Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach, the Cornhuskers underwhelmed with a 5-7 record. However, in the second season of each of his stops, Rhule has always bounced back.
Nebraska also had no legitimate quarterback at the helm last season. It started with Jeff Sims, who had a laughable start, and then Heinrich Haarberg salvaged what was left of the season.
Haarberg played well at times, but he had five games with more interceptions than touchdowns.
Nebraska seems like it’ll be rolling out five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. The youngster has a lot of promise, and he’s doing his best to model his game after Patrick Mahomes — on and off the field.
TRENDING: 5-star Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola showed up for camp looking exactly like Patrick Mahomes.
Raiola has said that he plans to MIMIC & copy everything Mahomes does, h/t @ZachGelb. They even train with the same coach.
🤯
(📸 @HuskerFootball) pic.twitter.com/70ZD21d18Y
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) July 31, 2024
Everything about Nebraska’s defense was high-end. It ranked 24th in the nation in Success Rate, 18th in Havoc and 11th in Explosiveness Allowed. For a team that went 5-7, those are incredible numbers.
The offensive ineptitude was holding this program back. Rhule did a great job in the transfer portal, though, bringing in ground and aerial threats — something they desperately needed.
I fully expect this offense to thrive this upcoming season and the defense to continue its success.
With four-star wide receiver Jahmal Banks coming in from Wake Forest and running back Dante Dowdell joining from Oregon into Lincoln, there are plenty of opportunities to go around.
Arizona Wildcats
+1100 to Make CFP
When Jedd Fisch decided to leave Tucson to take the job at Washington, many worried that the Wildcats’ program was going to fall once again — especially after ending their season on a seven-game winning streak.
Alas, in comes Brent Brennan, the former San Jose State coach who convinced rising stars in quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to stay. All of Tucson exhaled with a massive sigh of relief.
With Fifita and McMillan staying, Arizona’s ceiling is that much higher. The duo teamed up together in both middle and high school, so the chemistry is already palpable.
TETAIROA MCMILLAN STOP pic.twitter.com/RfvJ1bu7b3
— Liam Blutman (@Blutman27) December 29, 2023
While the Wildcats lost running back Jonah Coleman, who joined Fisch in Seattle, they gained a new one in Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico. The redshirt senior posted unbelievable numbers last season with over 1,100 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, all while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s impossible to ignore linebacker Jacob Manu. He led the team in total tackles by a wide margin and ranked second in tackles for loss and sacks last season. He’s the straw that stirs the drink on this defense. Having him back will be big for a defense that excelled at limiting explosive plays both on the ground and through the air.
I can absolutely see this defense building off last season. Forty-year coaching veteran Duane Akina was promoted to defensive coordinator after Brennan’s hire following a stint as a senior defensive assistant with the secondary last season.
For context, last season, Arizona ranked in the top 50 in Success Rate and PPA in passing situations.
Lastly, Arizona seems to have a very favorable schedule. It ranks 60th in strength of schedule, with its toughest opponent being the formidable Utah Utes. However, the Wildcats handled Utah just fine last season. While Utah battled a ton of injuries, Arizona's offense still went to work in a 42-18 victory.
Fresno State Bulldogs
+2500 to Make CFP
In honor of Modern Family’s Phil Dunphy, I’m keeping a very close eye on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
I’ve seen on many experts who like Boise State, Tulane and even Appalachian State make the playoff as the Group of Five selection. But why are we ignoring Fresno State?
Let’s remember that this is still a very good football team that went 9-4 last season and has a very favorable schedule to boot (ranked 117th in Strength of Schedule).
Junior quarterback Mikey Keene returns after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with a 67% completion rate, as does senior running back Malik Sherrod, who’s as elusive as they come.
Sherrod averaged 5.6 yards per carry while nearly hitting the 1,000-yard mark in 2023. I fully expect the 5-foot-8 back to pick up where he left off and become a main source of production for this Fresno State offense.
Malik Sherrod is a DOG. @MalikSherrod | 📺ESPN pic.twitter.com/pxN5Gs3HG4
— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) December 17, 2023
The Bulldogs will have a massive test to start their season, though, opening up against Michigan in Ann Arbor. But I’m all for getting the big games out of the way early.
While the Wolverines are the defending champs for a reason, let’s not forget that they're a little out of sorts. They still have no definitive quarterback, the offensive line is completely new, they lost multiple defensive backs to the transfer portal or the pros, and head coach Jim Harbaugh is gone.
Do I think the Bulldogs pull off an upset at the Big House? Not quite, but I see them making it close. FanDuel has the line currently at 21.5, which feels like too many points. If Fresno State manages to stay within striking distance, that could pay massive dividends moving forward.
Outside of the Wolverines, the biggest test the Bulldogs have is probably at Air Force. The Falcons utilize the triple option, but Fresno State’s strength on defense last season was stopping the run, ranking 50th in Success Rate and 53rd in PPA. Air Force may be on the decline, so I can see Fresno pulling off a victory.
