Three undefeated teams in Indiana, Oregon and Pittsburgh all hit the road this week, plus we have a Service Academy game, a top-five matchup in the Big Ten and more.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
It's All A Gamble
Let's talk unexpected performances, because 2024 has brought plenty of those. BYU had a win total of 4.5 entering this season, and is 8-0 straight up so far this season. Indiana is also 8-0 SU, while Army is 7-0 SU this season — both teams had win totals of just 5.5 entering the year.
Going back to 2010, excluding the 2020-shortened COVID season, only three teams entering this season started 7-0 SU with a preseason win total below six and only one, started 8-0 SU:
2021 Michigan State, 5 (started 8-0 SU)
2013 Missouri, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
2011 Kansas State, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
Dan The Man
This will be Michigan's seventh home game of the season and its third as a home underdog. The Wolverines haven't had three games or more as a home 'dog in a single season since 2009 — the only other season it has happened was 1990.
Michigan is a 15-point home underdog vs. Oregon this week. The Wolverines haven't closed as a double-digit underdog since facing Ohio State in 2017. The only other time since 2014 they've been a double-digit underdog.
Being a double-digit underdog at home has only happened three times since 1990:
+17 — 2013 vs. OSU (L, 42-21)
+12.5 — 2017 vs. OSU (L, 31-20)
+10 — 2009 vs. OSU (L, 21-10)
As a road favorite, Dan Lanning is undefeated straight up in his career with Oregon, going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS. Oregon is winning those games by 26 PPG and covering by over 8 PPG. Since 2022, no coach has more SU wins as a road favorite than Lanning and Oregon.
As a double-digit favorite, Lanning is 23-1 SU and 16-8 ATS with Oregon, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG. Under Lanning, that mark as a double-digit favorite is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when the game is played on the road.
Michigan has done a good job the week after facing one of its rivals in Michigan State. The Wolverines are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS their following game over the last decade, covering the spread by 5.5 PPG.
Michigan will play the No. 1 team in the country for first time since 2006 vs. Ohio State. The last time they beat the No. 1 team was in 1984 vs. Miami. They have lost eight consecutive games SU since then vs. No. 1 ranked team.
At Your Service
Let's start with the line. Since 1990, we've only seen two Service Academy games with a spread of 24 points or more. The last came in 2003 between Air Force and Army — a 26.5-p0int favorite for Air Force, a 31-3 win. There have been six 20-point academey lines in that span, those teams are 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS.
Unders in these matchups have been the historical cash cow, going 50-11-3 since 2003. But let's take a second to do a little analysis.
Between 2003 and 2019, the average over/under in a Service Academy game was 50.6, with an average of 43.1 combined points scored between both teams. There were just two games with a total listed below 40 of 51 total games. Since 2020, that average over/under has dropped to 36.7, with the average combined points sitting at 28.3. We've seen 11 games with a total below 40 of just 13 total games.
The over/under in this game opened at 40.5, the first Service Academy total of 40 or higher since 2022 and just the second in four calendar years. Unders are 17-2 over the last decade with a total of 40 or more in such games.
In Service Academy games, pay attention to the underdog in the first half as well.
Cig Up
Another week, another Indiana win and cover. The Hoosiers are still undefeated, but they are also on a seven-game SU and ATS win streak — the longest SU/ATS streak in the country. The last team to still be undefeated SU and be on a seven-game SU/ATS win streak was Alabama in 2020.
Indiana is now 5-0 SU in the Big Ten this year after going 3-24 SU in the conference the previous three seasons.
Curt Cignetti is 22-9 ATS with Indiana and James Madison. Cignetti is 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS in his last 18 games coached.
Dating back to 2007, Michigan State has been listed as an underdog the week after facing Michigan six times and they have won four of those games outright.
Weeknight Looks
Beware of high totals. Over/unders of 60 or more on games played outside of Saturday are going over at a 43% rate since 2021.
Home teams who have a worse SU win percentage than their opponents in these spots have also struggled. Since 2015, those teams are just 30% SU and 47% ATS in a 250-plus game sample size. Since 2020, they are 41-109 SU (27%).
Happy Matchup
Penn State hasn't defeated Ohio State outright since 2016 — seven straight wins for the Buckeyes. Dating back to 2012, Ohio State is 11-1 SU vs. Penn State, including 18-4 SU since 2002.
Since 2018, Penn State is 35-9 SU at home. 33% of those losses have come to Ohio State. Penn State is 35-6 SU vs. all other teams at home during that span.
As a home underdog, Penn State has lost six consecutive game straight up with their last win coming back in 2016 against … Ohio State.
Ohio State faces a top-10 team this week in Penn State. Since 2018, the Buckeyes haven't been fantastic against the number in these big matchups; they are 6-14-1 ATS, covering just two of their last 10 games in the spot.
That 6-14-1 ATS mark is the second-worst in that span in all of college football behind only Michigan State at 3-13 ATS.
In top-five matchups, Ohio State has lost four in a row SU and five of its last six overall. Since 2016, Ohio State is 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in top-five matchups.
When ranked inside the top-five, Penn State will play their third game of the year with a spread under -7 and they are 2-0 SU in this spot. Only four teams have finished a year 3-0 SU or better in that spot since 1990: 2023 Michigan, 2016 Clemson, 2010 Auburn and 2009 Alabama.
Follow The Herd
Marshall is now the only remaining team in the country undefeated against the spread, currently 7-0 ATS and facing Louisiana-Monroe this week after their bye. Here are the four other teams to start 7-0 ATS over the last decade:
2020 Indiana during the COVID-shortened season
2017 Georgia Tech
2017 Fresno State
2016 Colorado
Fried Gator
Since 1990, Florida has only closed as a 20-point underdog three times.
2022 vs. Georgia, 2016 vs. Alabama and 2013 vs. Florida State. Florida lost all three games outright, went 1-2 ATS, losing by at least 21 points in each contest.
Their highest spread as an underdog in that span came in the 2013 game vs. Florida State, where they closed as 28-point underdogs.
Overall, Florida has lost 12 consecutive games SU as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016. Overall, they are 3-22 SU as double-digit dogs since 1990, actually beating Georgia in that spot back in 2014.
Georgia is off a bye after breaking a five-game ATS losing streak two weeks ago vs. Texas. Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS on any extended rest. Their last game in this spot came against Alabama this year, a loss that broke a 15-game SU win streak for Kirby.
Pony Up
Pittsburgh is undefeated straight up this season and getting some extra rest after beating up on Syracuse on Thursday night last week. Undefeated teams SU on extended rest in Game 8 or later of the season are 64% SU over the last decade, but just 46% ATS, including 9-13 ATS when that game is on the road.
The one positive aspect to Pitt's run recently has been their defense. They had five interceptions last week and have allowed fewer than 17 pts now in back-to-back games. Over the last decade, undefeated teams this late into the season to allow 17 points or less in consecutive games are winning 83% of games SU, but are 67-50-1 ATS and 64-52-2 to the over in their next game. This also works for Oregon and Indiana this week.
The negative side when it comes to the line for Pitt: Undefeated teams in Game 8 or later as a 6-point dog are 7-27 SU, 14-19-1 ATS since 2010, with those games 21-13 to the under.
Ames Higher
Over 2.5 seasons as head coach of the Red Raiders, this will be just the second game Joey McGuire coaches on a road trip — second-consecutive game or later on the road — with Texas Tech. As an 11-point dog, he lost 41-31 in Oklahoma State in 2022.
Iowa State and Army are both undefeated SU this year and play a game off a bye, where they lost their last game ATS. Last decade, those teams are 62% SU and over 57% ATS, with the over 50-34-1 in those games.
Losing The War
Auburn has lost two straight home games both SU and ATS entering this matchup against Vanderbilt. Auburn hasn't lose three consecutive home games SU since 2012 — and they haven't dropped three consecutive home games both SU and ATS since 1998.
This season, Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS when listed as an underdog — the most ATS wins without a loss as an underdog this season. Vandy was just 2-7 ATS as dogs last year.
In The Lane
As a road favorite, Lane Kiffin is 28-8 SU and 19-16-1 ATS as a college head coach. Since 2019, Kiffin is 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS as a favorite on the road. In his last road game, he lost outright to LSU. Kiffin hasn't lost consecutive road games within the same season since 2018 while he was the coach at Florida Atlantic.
Historically, Ole Miss has struggled to cover against the Hogs. Rebels are 1-10 ATS vs. Arkansas since 2013, including 8-12 SU and 4-16 ATS over the last 20 years.
Top Dogs
Underdogs in SEC conference games are 26-11 ATS so far this season — best mark of any conference.
Home favorites are 3-15 ATS this season in SEC conference games. That is the worst conference mark for home favorites through nine weeks in the SEC since 1990.
Low, Low, Low
How low can you go? In Iowa and Wisconsin's last four meetings, they've scored a combined 21, 34, 34 and 35 points, going under the total in all four games.
The over/unders were: 34.5, 35.5, 34 and 39.5. This year's version has a total above 40.
This is even tough to type, but in eight games this year, Iowa overs are 7-1. Something you wouldn't believe after going 21-6 to the under in the previous three years, the best mark in college football.
When Iowa is listed as a favorite, the over is 7-0 this season.
Body Clock
Not only has Stanford lost five consecutive games both SU and ATS, but they are now facing NC State at Noon ET on the east coast. In the last 20 years, Stanford has played a game at Noon ET four times and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games, winning SU as a 30.5-point favorite vs. Army. In their last two games in this spot in 2021 and 2015, they were outscored by a combined 40-13.
Stanford has lost its last two road games by a combined 89-21 to Notre Dame and Clemson.
Swinney's Spot
Clemson is off a bye week before facing Louisville at home in Week 10. The Tigers haven't lost a home game outright off extended rest since 2010 — 15 consecutive wins, where they are 9-6 ATS. Those 15 SU wins is the most for any school without a loss since that 2011 mark.
Overall, Clemson has faced Louisville eight total times and they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in those games.
State of Affairs
Florida State is listed as an underdog in their fifth consecutive game, this time against North Carolina. It's the first time the Seminoles have done been 'dogs at least five games in a row since 2021.
The Seminoles horrible recent run continued last week. They are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last year. Between 1990 and 2019, Florida State was listed as an underdog once vs. UNC. Now they'll be dogs in three straight meetings. The Seminoles have won outright as dogs vs. UNC in the previous two matchups. In the last 20 years, the underdog in the five meetings between FSU-UNC have all won outright.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 153 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 95-58 to the under (62.1%) — the best start to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
A Different Role
Nebraska finally gets to face an opponent not ranked in the top-25, because that must be getting old.
- The Cornhuskers have now dropped 27 consecutive games straight up vs. ranked opponents
- Matt Rhule has lost 17 consecutive games SU vs. ranked opponents
When Rhule's teams face an unranked opponent, he is 55-31 SU and 52-33-1 ATS as a college head coach.
Staying West
USC got back to their winning ways last week beating up on Rutgers at home.
It's a pretty wild set of circumstances for the Trojans to struggle so much outside of their home territory. According to Bet Labs' lined CFB games, USC is 20-36-2 ATS (36%) in games played outside the Pacific Standard Time Zone, going 3-9 ATS since the start of 2021. None of the seven USC head coaches in the last 20 years has a winning ATS record in this spot. In games in PST for Lincoln Riley with USC, he is 14-9 ATS, according to Bet Labs lined games.
As a road favorite, USC has lost three straight games outright and has lost six consecutive games against the spread.
Wild Set
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-25-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. But what we are seeing right now out of the Vols' first half offense is unprecedented. In their last three games, Tennessee has been SHUTOUT in the first half against Florida, Arkansas and Alabama.
Tennessee has now gone three straight games without scoring a point in the first half for the first time since 1963.
Feeling Blue?
Since 2018, Miami is 26-11 SU and 16-21 ATS as a home favorite. In that spot against Duke? They are 0-2 SU/ATS. Duke is the only team with 2+ SU wins in that spot vs. Miami without a loss.
Under Mario Cristobal, Miami is 5-6 ATS the game after winning by 20 or more points, but the over is 8-3 in those games.
Over The Hill
Navy is the last undefeated team to the over or under this year, sitting at 7-0 to the over after Miami went under the total last week.
The Midshipman are the ninth team since 2006 to start the season 7-0 to the over. Those teams went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their next game, but just 2-6 to the over.
The teams to start 8-0 to the over: 2023 LSU and 2023 Vanderbilt.
Since 1990, Navy has played eighteen total games listed as a favorite coming off a matchup with Notre Dame. They are 16-2 SU, but 8-9-1 ATS in those games. When the line is 14 or less for Navy, they are 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS.
Historically, Service Academy double-digit favorites have been a tough bet. Last 20 years they are 75-90-3 ATS. They entered 69-89-3 ATS, but in 2024, Air Force, Army and Navy are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite — best season in 20+ years.
Still Water
Oklahoma State has yet to close as a home underdog this season, closing -1 against Utah in Week 4. Dating back to 2016, Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS as a home underdog
Hit The Almanac
This will be just the second game Biff Poggi of Charlotte coaches on short prep, and his team in the previous example lost 38-16 at home vs. Florida Atlantic last season.
In nine career home games with Charlotte, Poggi is just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.6 PPG.
New Con
Between 2016 and 2021, UConn played nine primetime home games, outside of a Saturday window. They were 0-9 ATS in those games. In 2022 and 2023, they played one home games each season and are 2-0 SU/ATS after the horrific streak.
Since 2019, UConn is 18-12 ATS at home after a cover last week against Rice before this contest.
King Dog
Tom Herman has historically been known as the underdog king, especially after starting his coaching career 8-0 ATS as a dog. As an underdog, Herman's teams are 21-11 ATS, with the under 21-11 in those games. As a favorite, Herman is just 22-36-5 ATS, even though he is winning 75% of those games SU.
Tough Going
After the big win against UNLV last week, Boise State has won and covered the spread in four straight games. Over their last ten games, they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS dating back to last season.
Being hot entering a tough primetime test isn't the easiest. Teams on a SU and ATS win streak of four games or more are 70-117 ATS (37.4%) on non-Saturday games. Since 2017, those teams are 13-36 ATS (27%). This also works for Jacksonville State against Liberty this week.
Recovery Cocktail
Liberty is off a terrible loss last week, losing to Kennesaw State as a favorite of over 20 points. Since 2019, teams off a SU loss as a favorite of 20-plus points are 18-37 SU and 16-38-1 ATS in their next game.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games in regard to the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 317-246-3 (56.3%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later and they are 16-10-3 this season.
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This week that is Liberty, UAB and Nebraska. These teams are 6-11 ATS this season.
Off Target
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 56% ATS and 14-13 ATS this season.
In Week 10, that includes SMU and Ohio State.
Wind Rules
Here's your weekly college football weather report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005.
Unders in high-wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 11-15-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years and 10-7 this season.
