Welcome to College Football Playoff rankings week, not to mention we have MACtion during the week and some Friday night games, too.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Grab A Cig
Indiana is currently a double-digit favorite vs. Michigan next week. The Hoosiers haven't been favored to beat Michigan in any football game since 1968 — a total of 43 meetings ago for both of these teams.
Indiana is still undefeated and is now on an 8-game SU and ATS win streak — the longest SU/ATS streak in the country.
Only teams to be undefeated on that long a SU/ATS win streak since 2000:
+ 2024 Indiana
+ 2019 Ohio State
+ 2002 Notre Dame
Indiana is now 6-0 SU in the Big Ten this year after going 3-24 SU in the conference the previous three seasons.
Curt Cignetti is 23-9 ATS with Indiana and James Madison. Cignetti is 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS in his last 19 games coached.
Out West
Traveling east to west has been a large topic so far this season with conference realignment.
Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the Big Ten and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences, according to lined games at Bet Labs.
When you include CST and EST as a travel from area, the Big Ten is 3-8 ATS in that spot this year.
It's All A Gamble
We might be looking at some of the most unprecedented starts in CFB history.
- BYU had a win total of 4.5 entering this season and is 8-0 straight up.
- Indiana and Army had win totals of 5.5, both are 9-0 SU and 8-0 SU, respectively.
Going back to 2010, excluding the 2020-shortened COVID season, only three teams entering this season started 7-0 SU with a preseason win total below six and only one started 8-0 SU. This year alone, we have three 8-0 SU teams with that low of a win total.
2021 Michigan State, 5 (started 8-0 SU)
2013 Missouri, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
2011 Kansas State, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
MACtion Time!
MACtion has arrived. This week, we have a few big spreads on the board.
In MAC conference games, outside of Saturday, double-digit favorites are 65-9 SU and 45-29 ATS over the last decade. Last year, they went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS.
Rankings Effect
The College Football Playoff rankings have been around since 2014 — making this the 11th first release in its history.
Looking at the top-5 ranked teams in the first rankings each year, they are 40-9 SU and 25-24 ATS after the release, but just 5-10 ATS last three years.
With this being the first year of the 12-team playoff, it's interesting that the No. 5 ranked team in the first rankings went 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their first game after the release in the 4-team playoff era.
Road Chalk
After the look-ahead line was LSU -1.5, Alabama is now the favorite in Baton Rouge.
If you feel like you've heard that before, you have. This is the ninth consecutive meeting between Alabama and LSU, in LSU, where Alabama has been the favorite. LSU hasn't been favored vs. 'Bama at home since 2006 — JaMarcus Russell vs. John-Parker Wilson. Alabama lost in LSU back in 2022 — last time it lost two straight in Baton Rouge? 2004 and 2006.
Alabama hasn't exactly been a road juggernaut. It's lost two straight SU/ATS away from home. The Tide haven't lost three straight road games SU since 2006 and you have to go back to 2000 for their last three-game SU and ATS road losing streak.
Since 2020, LSU is 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS as home dogs, tied for the second-most SU wins as home dogs in that span. At Notre Dame and LSU, Brian Kelly is 14-6 SU when playing at home off a SU loss. At home, Kelly is also 16-2 SU on extended rest in his coaching career.
Early Value
Road underdogs have been very profitable early in games over the last three seasons.
Wash It
The road hasn't been the easiest place for Washington this year. It is 0-3 SU/ATS after entering the year, having won eight consecutive games SU on the road.
Since 2018, this will be Washington's fourth game played in EST, going 0-2 SU/ATS this year and 1-3 SU/ATS over this stretch. In the last 20 years, Washington has made the trip seven times; it's 3-0 SU as favorites and 0-4 SU as underdogs.
We know historically that Penn State has struggled facing top-5 teams. Well, the week after, it's 20-4 SU in its next game, including winning five straight SU (4-1 ATS).
- Since 2019, teams to play a home game directly after facing Ohio State are just 12-20 ATS, including 9-13 ATS as favorites.
- Since the start of the 2022 season, Penn State is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS after SU losses, winning by nine on a 30+ pt line in their only ATS loss.
Since 2018, Penn State is 35-10 SU at home. 40% of those losses have come to Ohio State. Penn State is 35-6 SU vs. all other teams at home during that span.
Buck The Trend
As a double-digit favorite with the Buckeyes, Ryan Day is 54-1 SU and 32-22-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 4 PPG. His only SU loss came in 2021 against Oregon.
Ohio State has played ten games since 1990 against Purdue, where it's favored by two TDs or more (-14 or greater). The Buckeyes are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in those games.
You have to go all the way back to 1988 to find the last time Ohio State lost outright at home to Purdue — a streak of 10 straight wins in Columbus for the Buckeyes, where they are covering the spread by 6.3 PPG (6-3-1 ATS).
Purdue hasn't closed as a 35-point underdog or higher since 1989 when it did so against Michigan.
Road Hurricane
Miami this week is going for their longest road winning streak as a program since the iconic 2000 to 2003 run for the Hurricanes over two decades ago. Between early 2000 and the middle of 2003, Miami won 18 straight road games.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS vs. Georgia Tech, dating back to 2017, is the 2nd-worst mark for them behind only 1-6 ATS vs. Virginia.
Under Mario Cristobal, Miami is just 6-6 ATS the game after winning by 20 or more points, but the over is 9-3 in those games.
Through Georgia Tech's ups and downs, their home field has been relatively consistent. It's 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last year, before that stretch, Georgia Tech went 1-11 ATS in their previous 12 home games — a nice uptick recently.
Against high expectations, the Yellow Jackets have performed well at home under Brent Key. They are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home vs. teams above .500 and their only SU loss came to Georgia by just eight points.
Knoxville Home
This will be Tennessee's fourth consecutive game at home this week, facing Mississippi State. The Vols are 3-0 SU so far on the homestand, but recent history says covering might be tough in this 4th game.
Teams on the 4th game or later of any homestand are just 14-33-2 ATS since 2020. When a team is on that homestand, after winning 3+ straight games, they haven't covered since 2022, an 0-7-1 ATS streak since then.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-26-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. But what we are seeing right now out of the Vols' first-half offense is unprecedented.
Against Florida, Arkansas and Alabama, they were shut out in the first half. Last week vs. Kentucky, they scored just 7 points. Their four-game 1H ATS losing streak is the longest for the Vols since 2016 (6 straight).
On To The Next
Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS vs. Virginia Tech, with five of those six games finishing under the total.
From Virginia Tech's point of view, beating the best hasn't been an easy task for the Hokies. Since 2010, they are 3-20 SU and 8-15 ATS vs. top-15 teams in the country, including 1-13 SU and 5-9 AST over the last decade. Their one SU win came against UNC in 2021.
Clemson has only had to play 11 road games under Dabo, where it was coming off a SU loss. It's just 4-7 ATS in those games.
Dabo had won 15 consecutive home games SU on extended rest entering last week — his first loss since 2010 vs. Miami.
Down One
Undefeated no more. Iowa State lost at home vs. Texas Tech last week as 14-point favorites. Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 26-14-2 ATS after a SU loss, covering by over 5 PPG.
Teams, after losing their first game of the season as a 14+ point favorite, are just 8-15 ATS in their next game over the last 30 years.
What a run the Cyclones have been on away from home. They've been road warriors. On the road, Iowa State has won and covered the spread in seven straight games dating back to mid-October of last year.
Arkansas is the only other team currently on such a road cover streak — but the Hogs are 3-4 SU in those games. Teams on a 7+ game ATS win streak are just 11-18 ATS when playing on the road since 2019. Going back to 2000, a larger sample size, these teams cover at a 56% rate.
Dan The Man
As a double-digit favorite, Dan Lanning is 24-1 SU and 17-8 ATS with Oregon, covering the spread by 4.2 PPG. As a head coach of the Ducks, Lanning is 31-5 SU and 23-12-1 ATS (66%) — the best ATS win pct of any Ducks head coach since 1990.
In the last 20 years, Maryland has only played outside of the EST a total of 18 times — it's 4-14 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 PPG. The Terps have covered just one of their last 10 games in this spot dating back to the middle of the 2017 season. This will be just their 3rd game in PST in that span and the first since 2009 — Terrapins have been outscored 73-27 in those two games (0-2 ATS).
Gator Bait
This will be just the third time in the last 30 years Florida will be listed as a double-digit underdog in consecutive games. It did it last year in November and back in 1992. Since 1990, Florida has only closed as a 20-point underdog three times.
2022 vs. Georgia, 2016 vs. Alabama and 2013 vs. Florida State. Florida lost all three games outright and went 1-2 ATS, losing by at least 21 points in each contest.
Their highest spread as an underdog in that span came in the 2013 game vs. Florida State, where it closed as 28-point underdogs.
Overall, Florida has lost 13 consecutive games SU as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016. Overall, it's 3-23 SU as double-digit dogs since 1990, beating Georgia in that spot back in 2014.
Pavia Prowess
Vanderbilt is listed as an underdog again.
This season, Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS when listed as an underdog — the most ATS wins without a loss as an underdog this season. Vandy was just 2-7 ATS as dogs last year.
Top Dogs
Underdogs in SEC conference games are 29-12-1 ATS so far this season — the best mark of any conference.
Road dogs are 16-3-1 ATS this season in SEC conference games. That is the best conference mark for road dogs through ten weeks in the SEC since 1990.
Tough Spot
Tough spot for Pittsburgh last week. Big underdogs on the road, while being undefeated, rarely bodes well. Undefeated teams in game eight or later as a 6-point dog are now 7-28 SU, 14-20-1 ATS since 2010.
Overall, teams, after losing their first game of the year this late into the season by 20+ points, are actually 0-3 ATS in their next game since the start of last year, after Navy lost to Rice last week. Historically, back to 1990, these such teams are actually above .500 ATS, at 27-25-1 ATS.
State of the Union
The large spread in this game is going to get all the attention this week. Florida State has only closed +20 or higher five times since 1990. and if they close +26 or higher, it would be the Seminoles' largest game as an underdog since 1976.
Largest FSU Spread — Last 50 Years
+31 — 1976 at Oklahoma (L, 24-9)
+27 — 1975 at Florida (L, 34-8)
+25.5 — 2019 at Clemson (L, 45-14)
+25.5 — 2009 at Florida (L, 37-10)
+23.5 — 2023 vs. Georgia (L, 63-3)
Florida State is listed as an underdog in their sixth consecutive game — the first time the Seminoles have been 'dogs at least six games in a row in the last 35 years.
The Seminoles' horrible recent run continued last week. They are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last ten games dating back to last year.
It could also be a rare spot overall. If the game closes with a spread of 24+ and a total of 45 or less, it would be just the fourth this season with those tight margins. We've had 20 underdogs from a power five conference in this spot over the last 20 years and they are 0-20 SU. No upsets.
Kirby Knows
Lane Kiffin has faced Georgia twice in his career. One with Ole Miss and once with Tennessee. Both games went over the total by 10+ points. The problem there, is Kiffin tends to go under. In his home games coached since 2012, the under is an absurd 42-21, with him 49-14 SU in those games.
In his career as a head coach, Kirby Smart is 30-3 SU as a road favorite — losing once to Alabama, LSU and Auburn. He's coached 14 career games where the spread is 4 or less on either side; he's 10-4 ATS, including 6-1 ATS when the total is 50+.
Another One
Army continues its journey on an undefeated season, but recently, it's been close. It's undefeated SU but currently on a 2-game ATS losing streak.
Undefeated teams on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are covering 59% of games since 1990 and 18-6 ATS since 2016.
Holy Time
BYU and Utah last played "Holy War" back in 2021 and last played it in Utah back in 2018. BYU broke a 9-game SU losing streak to Utah in their last game in 2021 and haven't won consecutive meetings since 2006-07. BYU last won in Utah back in 2006, five straight losses. BYU has been listed as a favorite 13 times vs. Utah since 1993, it's 2-11 ATS in those games, losing its last four ATS.
BYU, though, is undefeated and on extended rest. Not always a positive. Teams in their 9th game or later, undefeated, on a full two weeks rest, are just 4-12 ATS since 2020.
White Hot Bronco
After the big win against San Diego State last week, Boise State has won and covered the spread in five straight games. Over their last 11 games, it's 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to last season.
It's a hard spot to try and fade Boise. The Broncos are 21-0 SU and 18-2-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 points or more since 2017.
Over The Hawkeye
This is even tough to type, but in nine games this year, Iowa overs are 8-1. Something you wouldn't believe after going 21-6 to the under in the previous three years, the best mark in college football.
When Iowa is listed as a favorite, the over is 8-0 this season. The total this week is around 45-46. Iowa has only closed with a total of 45 or more twice since 2021.
Oct, 2024 vs. Ohio State
Oct, 2022 vs. Ohio State
Iowa scored 17 pts combined in both games — an over and a under.
Still Water
Oklahoma State is close to hitting the bottom, with zero conference wins and with six consecutive SU losses. Now, this week, the Cowboys a double-digit underdog for the third time since 2019, this week at TCU.
Since 2018, teams on a 6+ game SU losing streak are 30% SU but over 54% ATS.
Weeknight Looks
Beware of high totals. Over/unders of 60 or more on games played outside of Saturday are going over at a 43% rate since 2016.
Home teams who have a worse SU win percentage than their opponents in these spots have also struggled. Since 2018, those teams are just 30% SU and 46% ATS in a 250-game sample size.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 153 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 101-64 to the under (61.2%) — the best year to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games regarding the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 319-247-3 (56.4%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later, and they are 17-11-3 this season.
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. Those fades this week would be Coastal Carolina and Memphis. This system is 13-7 ATS this season.
Off Target
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 56% ATS and 16-13 ATS this season.
In Week 11, that includes Alabama and Georgia.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% in the last 20 years and 10-7 this season.
