After one week of the 2024 College Football Playoff rankings, two of the top-5 teams lost already with Miami losing to Georgia Tech and Georgia falling to Ole Miss. This week, all the highly ranked teams are on the road, which could lead to more chaos.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Top Of The Road
The top-4 teams in the AP Poll are all on the road this week with Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State — the first time since 2021 that has happened and just the second time since 2015. Since 2021, top-4 ranked teams are 32-39-1 ATS when playing on the road.
Long Time Ago
Last year's title game seems a while ago now. Michigan is 5-5 SU this year. Washington is 5-5 SU this year.
Since we started awarding a National Title in an end of season game in 1992, the reigning title game participants from the year prior have never both finished .500 SU or worse the following year.
Cardinal Rule
Stanford has been really bad lately. No other way around it. They've lost six consecutive games SU and ATS entering this week's game vs. Louisville.
Stanford is the 2nd team this year on that long a streak SU and ATS, with Air Force. Teams on a 6+ game SU/ATS losing streak are just 9-33 SU, but 23-19 ATS since 2012.
The role of the home dog has been rough for the Cardinal. Since 2020, they are 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS in that spot, losing 17 in a row outright.
Camp Sadness
Since the beginning of last season, Oregon is 7-1-1 ATS on the road. Overall, Dan Lanning is 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on the road with Oregon, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG.
How does Lanning do as a big favorite? He's 23-0 SU and 16-7 ATS when favored by 14 or more.
Wisconsin is a big underdog at home this week, getting about 14 pts, which would be their second home game this year as a double-digit home underdog. Between 1998 and 2023, Wisconsin was a double-digit home underdog just twice.
Games as Double-Digit Home Underdog
2024: 2 in 6 games
1998-23: 2 in 173 games
Catching a Knife
According to lined games at Bet Labs, unders are hitting around a 49.7% this season in college football.
When the over/under drops two points or more between the opening and closing lines this season, the under is just 58-96-4 (37.7%).
Check all the updated lines weekly to track movement.
Out West
Traveling east to west has been a large topic so far this season with conference realignment.
Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the Big Ten and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences, according to lined games at Bet Labs.
When you include CST and EST as a travel from area, the Big Ten is 4-9 ATS in that spot this year.
Smart Time
The Vols are coming off a long homestand and now go on the road to face Georgia. Teams don't mind getting away from home. Teams to hit the road after a 4+ game homestand are 40-31 SU, 42-26-3 ATS since 2016, with the over 41-28-2 in that span.
Top-5 teams who are listed above a TD underdog in their 10th game or later are just 6-19 SU and under .500 ATS at 11-14 ATS since 2000.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel entered the season 48-22-2 against the first half spread — best mark for any CFB coach since he entered the game. Then this year started with three straight 1H covers. Since then, Tennessee is 0-5 1H ATS, the longest 1H ATS losing streak of Heupel's career and the longest for Tennessee since 2016.
Georgia is coming off a rare SU loss under Kirby Smart. He is 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS the game after a SU loss at Georgia, including 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS when listed as a favorite.
Over The Radar
Dating back to 1972, Ohio State has lost just one game outright vs. Northwestern, going 34-1 SU vs. the Wildcats, with their only loss coming back in 2014.
As a double-digit favorite with the Buckeyes, Ryan Day is 55-1 SU and 33-22-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 4 PPG. His only SU loss came in 2021 against Oregon.
Last week, Ohio State shutout Purdue — last two seasons, teams coming off a shutout are 40-23 SU and 36-25-2 ATS in their next game, also going 36-27 to the over.
Since 2020, we've had 13 road favorites in a conference game with a line of 30+, those teams are 13-0 SU but just 3-10 ATS.
Since 2010, when a team is favored by 30+ pts and there is a total of 46 or less, the over is 36-8 in those games.
Lion King
James Franklin has won 23 consecutive games SU as a double-digit favorite. He is 72-4 SU, 47-27-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career with Penn State and Vanderbilt, but even after blowing out Washington last week, he's just 2-3 ATS in this spot this season.
As a road favorite, James Franklin has been a tough guy to knock off. Since 2020, Penn State is 13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS and 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS since 2022 as a road favorite.
It's All A Gamble
We might be looking at some of the most unprecedented starts in CFB history.
- BYU had a win total of 4.5 entering this season and is 9-0 straight up.
- Indiana and Army had win totals of 5.5, and both are 9-0 SU.
Going back to 2010, excluding the 2020-shortened COVID season, only three teams entering this season started 7-0 SU with a preseason win total below six and only one started 8-0 SU. This year alone, we have three 9-0 SU teams with that low of a win total.
2021 Michigan State, 5 (started 8-0 SU)
2013 Missouri, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
2011 Kansas State, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
Hog Hope
Maybe a bit unexpected, but Texas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games played against Arkansas dating back to the early 1990's.
If Arkansas can upset Texas they would join Louisiana-Monroe as teams to go 2-0 SU as a double-digit home underdog in a single season since 2018.
2-0 SU or better as double-digit home dogs last 20 years
2015 New Mexico
2016 Wyoming
2017 Arizona State
2018 Old Dominion
2024 Louisiana-Monroe
Swinney's Revenge
Dabo Swinney loves himself some revenge. In his career as a head coach, he is 32-14 SU and against the spread when losing to his current opponent in their previous matchup.
Clemson will travel from Tallahassee to Blacksburg to face Pittsburgh this week. Under Dabo, Clemson is 6-0 SU/ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite on a road trip (2nd game or later on the road), and he's just 2-5 SU/ATS when under -10 on the spread.
Playing A Role
The Buffaloes face Utah this week, and they're listed as big home favorites.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 21 games. In nine of those games, the Buffs have been favorites, and in the other 12, they've been underdogs.
As a favorite, the Buffs are 8-1 SU (5-3-1 ATS), and as underdogs, they're 3-9 SU, with two of those three wins coming this season, and they are 9-3 ATS in those games.
Deion hasn't done a great job at covering large spreads. He's 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 8 pts or more in his career with Colorado. As head coach of the Buffs, Deion is 14-6-1 ATS (70%). Since 2000, with minimum of 20 games coached like Deion, only Jon Sumrall has a better ATS win percentage.
Not Another
Marcus Freeman can't handle another bad loss. In his almost three seasons in South Bend, he's lost as a 14+ pt favorite three times already. Notre Dame had three total losses of that magnitude between 1998 and 2021.
The role of the double-digit underdog hasn't been pretty for Virginia. Since 2013, they are 2-33 SU, but a promising 22-12-1 ATS.
Flood in Swamp
Since the start of the 2017 season, only one Florida QB has beaten LSU: Feleipe Franks. LSU is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS vs. the Gators in that span, winning and covering four in a row.
LSU is a 5-pt favorite in the swamp this week, the largest favorite for the Tigers on the road in Florida since 1978 (they were +6 that day).
As a head coach in college football, Brian Kelly has played 19 career games after getting blown out (20+ pts). He is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS in the game after being blown out, including 3-0 SU/ATS with LSU.
Top Dogs
Underdogs in SEC conference games are 32-15-1 ATS so far this season — the best mark of any conference.
Road dogs are 17-4-1 ATS this season in SEC conference games. That is the best conference mark for road dogs through 11 weeks in the SEC since 1990.
Wash It
The road hasn't been the easiest place for Washington this year. It is 0-4 SU/ATS after entering the year, having won eight consecutive games SU on the road. At home, Washington is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Washington and UTSA are the two teams in their 11th game or later undefeated SU at home, but winless SU on the road. Team in that spot since 1990 are 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS, with the lone ATS cover actually coming last year with Wyoming.
Staying Alive
We have a relatively low line with an undefeated BYU team at home this week. Teams to start 9-0 SU or better, who are at home with a spread of under -6 (as a favorite or underdog) are 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS over the last 30 years.
A new era? Since 2022, Kansas is 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when listed as an underdog, the week after winning as an underdog SU. Between 1990 and 2021, Kansas was 2-19 SU and 9-12 ATS in this spot.
Early Value
Road underdogs have been very profitable early in games over the last three seasons.
Total Rollercoaster
Beware of high totals. Over/unders of 60 or more on games played outside of Saturday are going over at a 43% rate since 2016.
So far this season, we've had 183 games with a total of 60 or more. Those games are 115-68 to the under (62.8%) — the best year to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games regarding the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 320-249-3 (56%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later, and they are 17-12-3 this season.
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. Those fades this week would be Arizona and Iowa State. This system is 14-7 ATS this season.
Off Target
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're at 57% ATS and 17-14 ATS this season.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% in the last 20 years and 11-8 this season.
