Undefeated Army and Indiana, both listed as double-digit underdogs highlight a massive Week 13 college football slate.
Here's Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Spread History
There aren't a lot of examples of a double-digit, undefeated underdogs in their 10th game or later. Since the 2018 season, we've seen six of them, one a season. Five of the past six double-digit, undefeated underdogs in their 10th game or later have scored 10 pts or less, with only Coastal Carolina beating BYU outright in 2020. Since 2004, only one double-digit, undefeated underdog in their 11th game or later has won outright and that was Central Florida over Auburn in 2017-18.
In the last 30 years, we've only seen one other 10-0 SU or better Big Ten team listed as a double-digit underdog and that was Ohio State in 2002 against Miami — a 31-24 Ohio State win over the Hurricanes. In that span, we've also only seen two 10-0 SU or better teams listed as a double-digit underdog in a conference game: Notre Dame vs. Clemson in 2020, a 34-10 Clemson win and Alabama vs. Florida in 2008, a 31-20 Florida win.
As a double-digit favorite with the Buckeyes, Ryan Day is 56-1 SU and 32-23-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 4 PPG. His only SU loss came in 2021 against Oregon.
A top-5 ranked team has been listed as a double-digit underdog 14 times since 2014, they are 0-14 SU and 5-9 ATS. The last outright winner came in 2013 between Auburn and Alabama in the "Kick-6" game.
Big Undefeated Dog
We have both Indiana and Army, undefeated teams, listed as double-digit underdogs this week.
This is just the 2nd time in the last 30 years we've had two 9-0 SU or better teams listed as a double-digit underdog in the "same week" and the first time before bowl season.
Last year Liberty and Florida State played bowl games as double-digit undefeated dogs on December 30 and January 1st, both losing SU and ATS.
The "how we got here" would be the most unprecedented starts in CFB history. Indiana and Army had win totals of 5.5.
Going back to 2010, excluding the 2020-shortened COVID season, only three teams entering this season started 7-0 SU with a preseason win total below six and only one started 8-0 SU.
Norman Numbers
Norman hasn't seen a line like this in some time. Alabama is a 14-pt road favorite in Oklahoma this week, which would be the largest home dog for the Sooners since 1997. Anything above +11 at home for Oklahoma would join the list below.
Oklahoma Biggest Home Underdog Since 1990
+35.5 — vs. Nebraska, 1996 (L 73-21)
+15 — vs. Texas A&M, 1997 (L 51-7)
+14 — vs. Nebraska, 1994 (L, 13-3)
Being a home underdog at all in Norman almost never happens. In 2000, Oklahoma was a 2.5-pt home dog vs. Nebraska. Since that game, the Sooners have been listed as home dogs three times, two of which have come this season. Oklahoma is 0-3 SU/ATS in those games.
Oklahoma Games as Home Underdog
2024: 3 (incl. this week)
2001-23: 1
Billy Boy
The turnaround has been unexpected. Florida is now 3-0 SU/ATS in their last three home games in "The Swamp." They haven't done that as a program since 2019.
The question is can they get one more? At Florida, the Gators are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS when they get to five wins or more, losing eight in a row outright entering this week.
As a road favorite, Lane Kiffin is 29-8 SU and 20-16-1 ATS as a college head coach. Since 2019, Kiffin is 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS as a favorite on the road.
Overall, Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016. Overall, it's 3-24 SU as double-digit dogs since 1990.
Feel The Sun
Depending on how you feel about BYU, and many think they were lucky to get to 9-0, history says they are due.
Teams in their 8th game or later, coming off losing their first game of the season, plus on a 2+ game ATS losing streak, are 18-8 SU and 17-8-1 ATS in their next game since 2020.
Arizona State is looking for their first win over a top-15 team since 2019, having lost 8 in a row.
The Sun Devils are favored over a top-15 team this week for the first time since 2014 against Notre Dame.
Break The Rhule
As coach of Nebraska, Matt Rhule is 0-8 SU when the Cornhuskers have exactly five wins — which is known in the CFB universe as one win away from being bowl eligible.
The only coach in the last 30 years with a worse record with one school was Willie Taggart at Florida Atlantic, who was 0-9 SU between 2020 and 2022.
Free To Cover
This is a top-25 matchup with a large spread. When the line is 14 or more in ranked vs. ranked matchups since 2010, the favorite is 65-43-2 ATS, covering by 3.6 PPG.
Marcus Freeman can't handle another bad loss. In his almost three seasons in South Bend, he's lost as a 14+ pt favorite three times already. Notre Dame had three total losses of that magnitude between 1998 and 2021.
Perfect Lion
James Franklin has won 24 consecutive games SU as a double-digit favorite. He is 73-4 SU, 48-27-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career with Penn State and Vanderbilt. As a road favorite, James Franklin has been a tough guy to knock off. Since 2020, Penn State is 14-3 SU, 13-4 ATS and 12-0 SU, 11-1 ATS since 2022 as a road favorite.
Since 1990, Penn State is 47-0 SU and 32-15 ATS as a double-digit road favorite.
Rabbit and the Hare
Jordan-Hare Stadium hasn't been friendly to Auburn lately. They are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games their overall. As a home dog, they are 1-10 SU since the start of the 2018 season and that was a win over Alabama in 2019.
The only positive for Auburn is that Hugh Freeze has somehow figured out a way to cover as a home dog, he is 11-5 ATS in his career, even 2-1 ATS with Auburn even if he is 0-3 SU.
Out West
Traveling east to west has been a large topic so far this season with conference realignment.
Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 10-7-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the Big Ten and 8-2-1 ATS in all other conferences, according to lined games at Bet Labs.
When you include CST and EST as a travel from area, the Big Ten is 4-10 ATS in that spot this year.
It's Time
It might be time for Pittsburgh. In the last 30 years, we've only seen 10 teams have a 70+ win pct and be on a 3-game SU losing streak. Those teams are 7-3 SU and ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 11 PPG.
Geaux Home
LSU has now lost three consecutive games SU and ATS for the first time since 2015 after losing to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M.
The Tigers haven't lost four consecutive games SU and ATS since the 1990 season.
As underdogs of 7 pts or more, Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS this season with Diego Pavia. Only one team in the last 30 years has finished a season 7-0 ATS or better as a dog of 7+ points — that was Temple in 2013.
MACtion Time!
In MAC conference games this season, the over is 23-13 (64%). That would be the best over pct for MAC conference games over the last 20 years.
Double Trouble
For Mario Cristobal, 2024 has been a different story. As double-digit favorites this year, Miami is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. Prior to this season, Cristobal was just 6-10 ATS as a big favorite.
Since 2017, we've had 10 undefeated teams lose outright this late into the season and then have extended rest before their next game. They went 8-2 ATS in their next game, covering the number by 6 PPG.
Defeated History
It's a lot of pressure to try and win your first game this late in the year, nobody wants to go winless, especially in a more primetime window. Teams to start 0-10 SU and play a game outside of a Saturday window, are 1-12 SU over the last 20 years, those teams are 5-8 ATS in those games. The one outright winner was Akron in 2010.
Making The Mark
As a big favorite, Steve Sarkisian has come through for his bettors. As a favorite of 17 pts or more, he's 23-3 SU and 17-9 ATS. He is 8-5 ATS at Texas and above .500 ATS at Texas, USC and Washington.
On the Kentucky side, the upset has never been a large part of Mark Stoops' portfolio. He's been a double-digit underdog 37 times and he is 3-34 SU and just 14-20-3 ATS. One of those upsets came earlier this year against Ole Miss. An upset this week and he would equal his double-digit spread upsets from 2013-2023 (2) just this season.
L.A. Confidential
The road hasn't been a friendly place recently for the Trojans and Lincoln Riley. They are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this year and dating back to last year, they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.
USC has lost 7 straight games ATS as a road favorite with their last win coming in November of 2022. As a road favorite of 3 pts or more, Lincoln Riley is 7-16-1 ATS with USC and Oklahoma.
This will be just their 2nd meeting since 2000 where both teams are .500 SU or worse on the season. They met in that same spot back in 2018, a 34-27 UCLA win at home.
Early Value
Road underdogs have been very profitable early in games over the last three seasons.
Boiler Misery
Purdue has lost nine consecutive games, including their last two games by 35+ points. Pure ineptitude.
They are the first team to lose 9+ consecutive games, including their last two by 35+ in a Power 5 conference since Kansas in 2015.
The New Corvallis
Things change quickly in college football. Between the start of 2021 and November of last year, Oregon State was a home juggernaut, having a 16-1 ATS stretch in Corvallis. They are now 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, with their only cover coming against Purdue.
Overall, Oregon State has lost six consecutive games ATS entering this week. Since 2013, teams on a 6+ game ATS losing streak are 64-43-2 ATS (60%).
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 199 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 119-80 to the under (59.8%) — the best year to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Cardinal Sin
Stanford hasn't closed as a 14+ pt underdog or higher vs. Cal since 2007.
This week, the Cardinal look to try and win consecutive games as massive underdogs, after beating Louisville as a 20-pt underdog last week. Amazingly enough, many would assume a bounce back to earth, but teams after pulling off an upset of 14+ pts and are 14+ pt underdogs in their next game are 4-19 SU and 14-8-1 ATS since 2020.
Ride The Bronco
It's a hard spot to try and fade Boise. The Broncos are 22-0 SU and 18-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 points or more since 2017.
They won, but failed to cover the spread vs. Nevada in their last game in this spot. Boise State hasn't lost two straight ATS as this big a favorite since 2016.
Blackjack
Florida State has gone 12 straight games without scoring 21 points. That’s the longest streak by any Power 5 or BCS conference team since South Carolina went 15 straight from 1998-1999 via ESPN. This FSU team has the longest streak by any team since Colorado State had 13 in 2021-22.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games regarding the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 322-250-3 (56.3%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later, and they are 17-11-3 this season.
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. Those fades this week would be Michigan State, Kansas State and LSU. This system is 14-9 ATS this season.
Off Target
In ranked vs. ranked matchups, the favorite has been a good bet. Since 2020, they're over 56% ATS and 18-15 ATS this season.
In Week 11, that includes Arizona State, Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% in the last 20 years and 12-9 this season.
