Welcome to the best week of them all — it is time for "Rivalry Week" in college football as Week 14 is upon us.
Here's Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
The Door Is Open
It's bowl eligibility week. We have plenty of five-win teams who need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. Since 1990, teams with exactly five wins, who face a team in the regular season, in Week 14 or later, who has four wins or less, are 78-25-1 SU and 62-40-2 ATS.
Here is how that five-win team performs depending on if they are coming off a win or loss in their last game.
Win: 37-12-1 SU, 29-20-1 ATS
Loss: 40-13 SU, 32-20-1 ATS
Big Buckeyes
As a favorite over Michigan, Ohio State has lost two consecutive games outright, in 2022 and 2021. Before that stretch, the Buckeyes had won 14 consecutive games outright as a favorite vs. Michigan between 2001-2020.
It's their first two-game losing streak as favorites vs. Michigan since 1995-96 and since 1970, it has never lost three straight as a favorite vs. Michigan.
Ohio State Biggest Favorite vs. Michigan Since 1970
-21, 2014 (W, 42-28)
-20.5, 2008 (W, 42-7)
-17, 2013 (W, 42-41)
-17, 1996 (L, 13-9)
-16.5, 2010 (W, 37-7)
Buckeyes are just 4-6 ATS under Ryan Day the game after beating a top-10 opponent, but as a double-digit favorite with the Buckeyes, Ryan Day is 57-1 SU and 33-23-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 4 PPG. His only SU loss came in 2021 against Oregon.
Michigan has been listed as a double-digit underdog in twelve games since 2008 and it is 0-12 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. Its last win as a double-digit dog came back in January of 2008 against Florida and Tim Tebow.
Since 2013, the over is a perfect 10-0 in Michigan and Ohio State matchups, going over the total by 16.6 PPG.
All The Wave
Tulane has had Memphis' number in recent years. The Wave have beaten the Tigers outright in two straight for the first time since 1997-98 and they've won four straight games against the spread vs. the Tigers, too — their longest ATS streak vs. Memphis since 1990.
Both teams have a bye week in between this pivotal AAC showdown. When both teams are on at least 10 days rest, the over is 58-38 this season, the best mark for overs in the last 20 years.
MACtion Time!
In MAC conference games this season, the over is 25-16 (60%). That would be the best over percentage for MAC conference games over the last 20 years.
Boise Bounce
Boise State failed to cover the spread in its last home game against Nevada. You have to go back to November of 2021 before you find the last time Boise failed to cover the spread in consecutive home games.
In that span, it's 13-5-1 ATS playing at home. It's a hard spot to try and fade Boise, too. The Broncos are 23-0 SU and 18-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 points or more since 2017.
Can't Drop This One
Under Deion Sanders, Colorado has closed as a double-digit favorite in just four games. The Buffs are 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS. Deion is 14-3-1 ATS in any other spot but a double-digit favorite while in Boulder.
As a favorite overall, Deion is 9-2 SU and 6-4-1 ATS, with those games going 7-4 to the over.
At Colorado, Deion Sanders has done a great job at bouncing back off a loss. He is 7-1-1 ATS, but just 3-6 SU in those games.
Don't Break It
Time for the Egg Bowl, where one team is favored by 20 points or more in this series for the first time since 1962 when Ole Miss was a 22-point favorite against Mississippi State. There were a few close calls a few years before that game in 1962 (1966, 1967), where Ole Miss closed at -19.
Anything closing above that -22 mark would be the biggest favorite in this series since 1960. Ole Miss has lost four consecutive games ATS as a favorite vs. the Bulldogs, with its lost cover coming back in 2015.
Last week, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss lost as 13.5-pt road favorites vs. Florida. Kiffin was 16-0 SU in his coaching career as a double-digit road favorite before that loss. In Kiffin's last 11 games after a SU loss, he's. 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to the 2011 season.
Just Hate It
As a favorite of 35 pts or more at Georgia, Kirby Smart is just 3-13-1 ATS after failing to cover last week against UMass.
After losing against the spread in his previous game, Kirby Smart is 33-0 SU and 21-11-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, with those games also 21-11-1 to the over, too.
Georgia Tech has been giant killers recently. Since 2019, its eight outright wins as a double-digit underdog is the most in college football.
Duck, Duck, Goose
Oregon is off a bye week before facing Washington this week. Dan Lanning has coached five games on a full bye, he is 4-1 SU, winning by 14.6 PPG. When his team is favored off a bye during the regular season, he's 2-0 SU, winning by a combined 36 pts.
As coach of Oregon, Lanning has faced Washington three times — he is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in those games and each game has been a nail-bitter, losing 34-31, 36-33 and 37-34 — all by three points.
It isn't often one team has lost outright by three points or less in three straight meetings — since 1990, teams to lose three straight by three points or less vs. a single opponent is 16-6 ATS when facing that opponent a next time, including 6-0 SU/ATS since 2013.
Undefeated teams in their 8th game or later, on a 2+ game ATS losing streak, are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS since 2020, including 50-17 SU and 42-24-1 ATS over the last 20 years.
Drop In The Bucket
Indiana is a 29-point favorite over Purdue this week. IU's biggest spread against Purdue over the last 20 years is -21.5 back in 2016.
That 21.5-pt spread in 2016 is its largest spread vs. Purdue before this week since at least 1970. The highest spread in the series before this week is when Purdue was favored by 24.5 in 2003 and 22 in 2002.
Since 1990, Indiana is 9-1 SU but just 4-6 ATS as a favorite when facing Purdue.
The bounce back has been real in recent years. Teams to lose their first game of the season in game nine or later of the season are 22-6 SU and 21-7 ATS since 2017, winning those games by 13 PPG.
Purdue has lost ten consecutive games straight up entering this showdown with its rival. It's just the third Big Ten team to lose 10 straight in a single season since 2000, with 2022 Northwestern and 2018 Rutgers.
Irish Exit
The "Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh" is a top-10 ranked team laying under a TD on the road. Notre Dame is laying points against USC.
As a favorite of 7 points or more vs. USC, Notre Dame is 7-2 SU but just 2-7 ATS over the last 40 years.
This is Notre Dame's third-biggest line as a favorite in USC over the last 30 years.
-13, 1996 (L, 27-20)
-10, 2018 (W, 24-17)
The Fighting Irish haven't covered the spread on the road in USC since 2012, losing four in a row, going 1-3 SU in those games.
This week, USC can play spoiler on Notre Dame's season. Here is how Notre Dame has performed vs. USC when it has one loss or fewer entering the matchup.
2010-present: 6-0 SU
1994-2009: 0-5 SU
Sun Expectations
Arizona has managed to flip the rivalry around against the Sun Devils lately. Arizona has won back-to-back games vs. Arizona State outright for the first time since 2008-09 — it hasn't won three straight vs. ASU since 1993-95 and it has to do it as a big underdog.
Expectations have arrived in Tempe. Arizona State has only closed as a favorite of 7 or more once under Kenny Dillingham, and that was against Southern Utah to open up last season — a game Arizona State barely survived, winning 24-21. This is Arizona State's first game as a 7+ pt favorite vs. a conference foe since Oct. of 2022.
Defeated History
Kent State is a 22-pt underdog to try and get their first win of the season this week. Teams listed +17 or higher, who are 0-10 SU or worse, are 0-19 SU and 5-13-1 ATS since 2000.
It's a lot of pressure to try and win your first game this late in the year, nobody wants to go winless, especially in a more primetime window. Teams to start 0-10 SU and play a game outside of a Saturday window are 1-13 SU over the last 20 years; those teams are 5-9 ATS in those games. The one outright winner was Akron in 2010.
Diego! Diego!
As underdogs of 7 pts or more, Vanderbilt is 7-0 ATS this season with Diego Pavia. Only one team in the last 30 years has finished a season 7-0 ATS or better as a dog of 7+ points — that was Temple in 2013.
Pavia is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season and 7-1 ATS in that spot since the start of last season with New Mexico State. As an underdog as a whole in his college career, Pavia is 16-7 ATS as a dog.
Over the last two seasons, Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS when facing top-10 teams — the most ATS wins without a loss for any team in the country.
How vulnerable is Tennessee as a big favorite away from home? Under Josh Heupel, it is 22-0 SU as a 7-pt favorite or greater at home and 1-2 SU on the road — losing to Arkansas and South Carolina.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 211 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 125-86 to the under (59%) — the best year to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Geaux Home
LSU escaped with a win at home against Vanderbilt last week but failed to cover the spread for a fourth consecutive game. Overall, LSU is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, dating back to last season.
LSU's 3-8 ATS mark this season would be their worst in a single season since 1990 when it finished 2-9 ATS.
From Oklahoma's side, they've come off a SU win as an underdog twice under Brent Venables and lost its next game ATS both times.
Point Palmetto
If Clemson closes as a favorite against South Carolina this week, it will be favored vs. the Gamecocks in ten straight meetings dating back to 2014 — 2013 is the last time South Carolina was favored over Clemson. During the nine-game favorite stretch, Clemson is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS.
Clemson and South Carolina have faced each other, both ranked in the top 25, seven times all-time and South Carolina is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in those games.
Clemson has lost three straight home games ATS entering this matchup; it hasn't had four straight home games ATS since 2010.
James and The Giant
After barely surviving against Minnesota last week, James Franklin has won 25 consecutive games against SU as a double-digit favorite. He is 74-4 SU, 48-28-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career with Penn State and Vanderbilt.
Worried about Penn State bouncing back off a tight win? James Franklin has won ten games in his coaching career by 3 pts or less, his teams are 10-0 SU/ATS in their next game, covering by almost 18 PPG.
Iron Sharpens Iron
Alabama had a bad loss for the ages last week against Oklahoma.
Alabama as 14+ point favorites…
+ Under Kalen DeBoer: 2 losses in 8 games
+ Under Nick Saban: 3 losses in 139 games
The Crimson Tide only scored 3 points last week, their fewest in a game since 2004. At Alabama, Washington and Fresno State, DeBoer is 3-0 SU after scoring 20 pts or less in his previous game, scoring 34, 42 and 38 pts.
When a top-10 team scores three points or less in their previous game, they are just 18-22 SU and 14-25-1 ATS in their next game over the last 30 years.
The big favorite has usually won in this series going back historically. As a favorite of over 10 pts, the favorite is 21-1 SU in this series over the last 50 years (since 1974).
Alabama is coming off a SU loss entering the "Iron Bowl" — Since 2000, it has entered the showdown off a loss six times and lost all six of those "Iron Bowls" outright.
It's A Me, Mario
Miami and Syracuse don't play often; this is their 24th meeting all-time and first since 2017 (2nd since 2003). When Miami has been listed as a favorite against Syracuse, it is 13-0 SU and 9-4 ATS over the last 50 years.
For Mario Cristobal, 2024 has been a different story. As double-digit favorites this year, Miami is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. Before this season, Cristobal was just 6-10 ATS as a big favorite.
In 2024, the dome in Syracuse, New York, has been a tough place to play for road favorites. Syracuse is 2-0 SU/ATS as a home underdog, beating Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Forget being undefeated in this spot, Syracuse hasn't won three straight games as a home underdog in the last 30 years at any point. It is also 4-2 SU as underdogs overall this year and a fifth win would be its most in a single-season over that span.
The Long Night
How beautiful. Texas and Texas A&M finally get back on the field together for the first time since 2011. Since the series started in 1894, this is the longest these two schools have had to go between matchups.
Texas enters this game against their in-state rival coming off back-to-back games where it failed to cover the spread, but it is ranked third in the country. Top-five teams, off a 2+ game ATS losing streak, are 63-19 SU and 50-28-3 ATS over the last 20 years.
Rebel For A Cause
The "Battle for the Fremont Cannon" has a new spin to it this year. UNLV is listed as a 17.5-point favorite against Nevada, their biggest favorite in the series since closing -21 back in 2000.
As a big favorite, Barry Odom has had success in his career, but not lately. He's 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS as a favorite of 14 pts or more, but he's lost his last two ATS vs. San Diego State and Utah State — his first 2+ game ATS losing streak in this spot in his career.
Hokie Pokie
It's hard to call this one a rivalry. Since 1999, Virginia Tech is 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS vs. Virginia. When they're favored by three points or more against the Cavaliers, the Hokies are 19-0 SU and 14-5 ATS over the last 40 years.
Coming East
California travels from PST to CST this week to face SMU. In the Bet Labs database since 2019, PST teams to travel to EST or CST are 59-42-1 ATS (58%), going over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
Wild One
Kentucky has had Louisville's number lately. In their last five meetings, Kentucky is 5-0 SU/ATS vs. Louisville — the longest such streak for either team in the last 100 years.
In the last four meetings Kentucky has entered, where they had a worse record than Louisville, the Wildcats won SU and ATS dating back to 2016. The only issue? As a home dog, Kentucky is 7-22 SU under Mark Stoops, winning their last game back in 2022. As a home dog vs. Louisville, Stoops is 0-3 SU/ATS.
Gator Bait
Florida State finally scored 21 pts last week, breaking their 12-game streak — granted it was against Charleston Southern. Against a team above .500 SU, Florida State has lost five straight games, going 1-7 SU in their last eight games, with their only win coming against Cal.
Entering last week, Florida had lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016 — and then it beat Ole Miss at home. Since 2019, teams who win as a double-digit underdog in their previous game and then are listed as a double-digit favorite are 49-11 SU but just 21-37-2 ATS.
When Florida is listed as a favorite against Florida State, it has been pretty unbeatable. Since 2000, it's 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a favorite vs. Seminoles. Its last loss as a favorite vs. FSU came back in 1996.
Break The Rhule
Matt Rhule finally did it. As coach of Nebraska, Matt Rhule was 0-8 SU when the Cornhuskers had exactly five wins — which is known in the CFB universe as one win away from being bowl-eligible.
Now, for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is bowling.
Can Nebraska win again? Under Matt Rhule, the Cornhuskers are just 3-6-1 ATS after a SU win. At Temple and Baylor, Rhule was a combined 30-13 ATS after a SU win.
The story for Iowa has to be the fact it's 9-2 to the over this season — tied for the best mark in college football with UConn. Entering 2024, Iowa unders were 21-6 over the past three years, the best mark in college football.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games regarding the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 325-251-3 (56.4%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later, and they are 22-14-3 this season.
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. Those fades this week would be Wisconsin, Western Kentucky, Michigan State, LSU and Charlotte. This system is 16-10 ATS this season.
Off Target
In ranked vs. ranked matchups, the favorite has been a good bet. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS and 21-15 ATS this season.
In Week 14, that includes Texas and Clemson.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% in the last 20 years and 13-10 this season.
