Rivalry week is behind us, so it's time for Conference Championship week before we get into the bowls and the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
Here's Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Low, Low, Low
So far, no teams are favored by 6 pts or more in the 2024 Conference Championship betting markets slate.
We haven't seen a Conference Championship weekend with no 7+ point favorites since 2006 and it's just the third time since 1992. While it happened in 1993, there was only one game that year.
SEC Championship
Kirby Smart and Georgia are heading to their 7th SEC Championship game as a duo. The Bulldogs are only 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in those games. Smart is 104-18 SU overall in his coaching career with Georgia, with 22% of his losses coming in this conference title game. He's just 5-7 SU but 8-4 ATS as an underdog with Georgia.
This will be just Kirby's 3rd Conference Title game as an underdog:
2024 +2.5 vs. Texas
2019 +7 vs. LSU (L, 37-10)
2018 +11.5 vs. Alabama (L, 35-28)
Since the inception of the SEC Championship back in 1992, the favorite is 25-6 SU but only 14-16-1 ATS. Two of those six losses have come from Georgia as a favorite vs. Alabama.
Georgia hasn't been covering the spread well this season. At 3-9 ATS so far, they are having their worst ATS season since 2013 (finished 3-9-1 ATS). They had their worst year in 1990 when they went 1-10 ATS. The Bulldogs have the worst ATS win % of any team entering their Conference Championship this year and the worst for any team outside of the 2020 COVID season since Washington in 2018.
Big Ten Championship
Oregon enters the Big Ten Championship as the sole undefeated team in college football. Undefeated teams in Conference Championship games are 37-17 SU (69%) since 1992, but when they are favored by under 5 pts, they are just 6-9 SU in those games.
Since 2021, we've seen three undefeated teams in a Conference Championship — all three were Georgia, and the Bulldogs went just 1-2 SU in those games.
Both Dan Lanning and James Franklin have only coached in one Conference Championship. Lanning lost last year to Washington as a 9.5-pt favorite, while Franklin faced Wisconsin in 2016 as a 3-pt underdog and won outright.
Penn State head coach Franklin is 7-25 SU as an underdog and 92-15 SU as a favorite. Penn State hasn't won a game outright as an underdog since September of 2021 against Wisconsin, losing nine straight. Against top-5 opponents, Franklin is 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS in his coaching career with Penn State and Vanderbilt.
In total, there have been 13 Big Ten title games — the favorite is 9-4 SU, but just 5-8 ATS — the favorite has won seven straight outright since 2017.
ACC Championship
Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has played 33 games at a neutral site, and the Tigers are 21-12 SU and 20-13 ATS in those games, with the under 21-12 as well. When Clemson is listed as an underdog in those neutral site games, they are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS, covering the spread by 11.8 PPG.
At Clemson, Dabo has coached in nine Conference Championship games. The Tigers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS and they've won eight straight Conference Championship games since losing to Georgia Tech in 2009. This will be just the second time Dabo and Clemson are underdogs in a title game; they were +7 in 2011 against Virginia Tech and won 38-10.
What's not a great omen for Clemson is the fact they lost to South Carolina entering their title game vs. SMU. Over the last decade, teams losing their last game before playing in a Conference Championship are 10-16 SU, including 6-14 SU as underdogs. Tulane and Jacksonville State lost their last game before this weekend as well.
Clemson has also lost three consecutive games ATS entering this title game vs. SMU, the longest ATS losing streak for any team in a title game this year. Over the last decade, teams entering a Conference Championship on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are actually 7-0 SU/ATS in their title games.
Rhett Lashlee has been SMU's head coach since 2022, SMU is 26-3 SU and 17-12 ATS as a favorite under Lashlee, with losses to BYU twice and Boston College. Yet, Lashlee and SMU have played two neutral site games together and they are 0-2 SU, listed as favorites in both games.
Big 12 Championship
What a season it has been for Arizona State and Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils are not only 10-2 SU, their first 10-win season since 2014, but they have a chance at 11 wins and more, which they haven't had since 1996. Arizona State is also 10-2 ATS this year, the 2nd-best cover mark in the country behind just Marshall.
Arizona State enters this title game on a 5-game SU and ATS win streak. Major conference teams (ACC, B10, B12, P12, SEC) entering their title game on a 5+ game SU and ATS win streak are 7-4 ATS since 1992.
Two trends that have stayed consistent for Iowa State coach Matt Campbell are he is good as an underdog — 36-23-3 ATS with Iowa State and Toledo — and when he is an underdog, the under is 40-21-1. In 2024, Iowa State has been an underdog only once, a 20-19 win against Iowa earlier in the season.
Arizona State had a win total of just four entering this year — the lowest mark for any team playing in this year's Conference Championship weekend.
When the Big 12 title game is played at a neutral site, the favorite has won 12 straight games outright, the last loser coming in 2003 when Oklahoma lost to Kansas State.
AAC Championship
Not only did Tulane lose its last game before the AAC title game vs. Army, but also it lost as a 12.5-point favorite at home against Memphis. Since 1992, we've only seen 15 teams enter a Conference Championship off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite; they're 5-10 SU/ATS in their title games.
Clemson, Georgia, Army and Boise State are all on 2+ game ATS losing streaks heading into their Conference title game. Those teams are 25-14 SU and 24-15 ATS in their Conference Championship games since 2010, covering the spread by 3 PPG.
This game at Michie Stadium at West Point is supposed to be played in freezing temperatures, around 27°. Conference title games played in freezing temperatures are 7-3 to the under, going under by 7.3 PPG over the last 20 years.
Overall, Tulane has dominated this series in recent history, beating Army in four straight meetings, and covering all four games over the last decade.
When Service Academy schools are listed as underdogs they have been historically profitable against the first-half spread.
Conference USA Championship
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State played each other in Week 14 and now face off in the Conference USA championship game. This will be the fifth Conference Championship game where opponents faced each other in their previous game. The favorite is 0-4 ATS in the previous four games in this spot.
The team that won the previous matchup before the Conference Championship showdown went just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS — not a perfect situation for Western Kentucky this week.
Rich Rodriguez and Jacksonville State faced a team that beat them in their previous matchup twice — against Liberty and New Mexico State — and they went 2-0 SU/ATS in their next matchup, winning by 10+ pts in both games.
Mountain West Championship
As Jacksonville State, UNLV faces an opponent who beat them this season. On October 25th, UNLV lost 29-24 as a 3.5-pt home underdog against Boise State — also UNLV's last loss before this matchup.
Teams that lost to their Conference Championship opponent in the same season as the title game are 26-42 SU and an even 33-33-2 ATS since 1999, including 18-29 SU since 2010. This works for not only UNLV this week but also Jacksonville State, Ohio and Texas.
Overall, UNLV has had its issues with Boise State. The Runnin' Rebels have lost eight straight meetings outright against the Broncos, with their last win coming all the way back in 1976. UNLV also lost three straight ATS vs. Boise State, with their last cover coming in 2016.
The other big story in this game is Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has 2,288 rushing yards this year, the most through 12 games for any player since 2000 — 28 more than Melvin Gordon did in 2014. Jeanty faces a UNLV defense that "held him" to 128 rush yards on 33 carries, his 3rd-fewest on 20+ carries in his college career and fewest this season.
MAC Championship
Ohio enters this title game on a 5-game SU and ATS win streak — hot as can be — which isn't always a great thing for teams. Since 2017, teams playing in their Conference Championship game on a 5+ game SU and ATS win streak are 2-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 8.6 PPG. This also works for Arizona State, which is on the same streak as Ohio.
Miami-Ohio and Jacksonville State started this season 0-3 SU and are now playing for their Conference Championship. They are just the third and fourth teams to do that since 1992. The other two teams to do it, 2019 Southern and 2014 Fresno State, lost outright in their Conference Championship games by 14+ pts.
The MAC title game is the lone matchup this weekend where both teams are on extended rest. In Conference Championship games where both teams are on extended rest, the under is 14-7 since 2006.
In MAC conference games this season with a total below 50, the over is 18-10 (64%).
Sun Belt Championship
Hello to the cover kings. Marshall is 11-1 ATS this season, the best cover team in the country.
2024 Marshall joins 2016 Temple as the only teams to enter a Conference Championship game with an ATS win pct of 90%+. Temple was also 11-1 ATS in 2016, faced Navy as a 1.5-pt underdog and won outright.
Marshall, Arizona State and Tulane enter their Conference Championship games with an ATS win % of 75% or higher. Over the last decade, those teams are 12-18 ATS in their respective title games.
Louisiana-Lafayette is the largest betting favorite on the board for Conference Championship weekend, but they are only between -5 and -6 early this week. Under Michael Desormeaux, the Ragin' Cajuns are 18-1 SU as a double-digit favorite, but when they are favored by under 10 pts, they are only 9-7 SU since 2022, losing to South Alabama in this spot in November this year.
Marshall has been a giant killer as an underdog this year. They are 5-0 ATS as dogs, tied for the best mark for any team in the country this year with Louisiana Tech.
Conference Championship preseason win totals
Here are the preseason win totals for the Conference Championship game participants. We have three below six. In the last decade, teams with a preseason win total of below six in Conference title games are 5-14 SU and 9-10 ATS.
Oregon: 10.5
Georgia: 10.5
Texas: 10
Penn State: 10
Boise State: 9.5
Clemson: 9
SMU: 8.5
Miami-Ohio: 8
UNLV: 7.5
Iowa State: 7.5
UL Lafayette: 7.5
Western Kentucky: 7.5
Jacksonville State: 7.5
Tulane: 7.5
Ohio: 6
Marshall: 5.5
Army: 5.5
Arizona State: 4
For Arizona State, who entered with a win total of just 4, there have been ten teams over the last decade with a preseason win total below 5 — they've gone 3-7 SU, but a positive 6-4 ATS. Only five of those were listed as a favorite, they went 2-3 SU/ATS but 0-3 SU/ATS since 2018.
Looking at just major conference teams, there have only been three in the last decade with a preseason win total below 6: 2021 Baylor, 2018 Pittsburgh and 2016 Colorado. They went 1-2 SU/ATS in their title games.
Off Target
In ranked vs. ranked matchups, the favorite has been a good bet. Since 2020, they're 57% ATS and 22-16 ATS this season.
In Week 15, that includes Tulane, Boise State, Arizona State, Texas, SMU and Oregon.
Falling Knife
Beware of falling totals. Unders that see the total drop at least two points from the opening to closing lines are just 40% to the under on that closing line this season.
Check live lines via the Action Network for matches.
