Week 0 and Week 1 didn't exactly bring the upsets, but Week 2 turned that around quick.
Let's look at Week 3 CFB action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Upset City
Double-digit favorites entered Week 2 89-3 SU this season (this includes all lined CFB games via Action Labs).
Then, on Friday night, SMU — as a 12.5-pt underdog — beat BYU outright.
Then Saturday came. We had 67 total teams favored by 10 pts or more and they went 58-9 SU and 26-41 ATS. Here were the nine straight up losses …
Drake (+35) over Eastern Washington
Northern Illinois (+28) over Notre Dame
Central Connecticut (+23.5) over Fordham
Charleston Southern (+20) over Furman
St. Francis (+17.5) over Kent State
Wofford (+17.5) over Richmond
Campbell (+13.5) over Western Carolina
Cal (+12) over Auburn
UL Monroe (+11.5) over UAB
On A Bender
Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday as 28-pt underdogs. It's the worst loss (by spread) for ND since it lost its season opener as a 28-pt favorite vs. Northwestern in 1995.
This is Notre Dame's 3rd loss SU as a 20+ pt favorite within the first two weeks (wk 2 or earlier) of the regular season since 1990 — the most of any school in the nation.
This is also ND's 2nd loss as a 20+ pt favorite since 2022. They join Fresno State and UNC as the only teams with 2+ losses as a 20+ pt favorite in that span.
In Week 3, Notre Dame is a big favorite against Purdue. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss.
Hawk Over
Week 1 of college football featured an Iowa over.
Week 2 of college football featured an Iowa over.
Entering 2024, Iowa unders were 21-6 over the past three years, the best mark in college football. Now, for the first time in at least the past 20 years, Iowa overs start the season 2-0.
Their total against Troy is around 40 and would be their first game with a total of 40+ since September of last season. With Iowa favored by 20+ pts, this could be the 42nd game of the past 20 years where a team was favored by 20+ pts with a total of 40 or less. Those teams have gone 38-3 SU, but just 16-25 ATS. Since 2020, Iowa has been a part of four of the five games in this spot.
Playing A Role
The Buffaloes are 7-point favorites against Colorado State this week.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 14 games. In five of those games, they've been favorites, and in nine, they've been underdogs.
As a favorite, they're 4-1 SU and as underdogs, they're 1-8 SU, with their lone win coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together.
Exercise some caution with Colorado, Michigan and NC State this week as teams to lose by 14+, who are then 7+ pt favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020.
Camp Big Dog
It's not every week we see Wisconsin as a big underdog at home, but here we are with Alabama coming to town.
Since 2005, Wisconsin's biggest line as a home 'dog is 14.5 against Ohio State last year — a 24-10 Buckeyes win.
Before that game last year, they were last +14 or higher back in 1997 against Michigan and last closed +15 or higher back in 1991 against Iowa as a 17-pt underdog at home. In the past 35 years, Wisconsin is 0-11 SU as a double-digit home underdog.
Road Warriors
As an Indiana alumnus myself, I am happy to see this come to an end. Indiana hasn't been listed as a road favorite in any game since 2021 against Western Kentucky and hasn't been a road favorite in a conference game since 2020 against Michigan State. In a non-covid season, with crowds, it would be November of 2019 against Purdue.
IU has actually covered three in a row ATS on the road going back to last season.
The Brawl
West Virginia has a chance to close as a road favorite against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, they are 1-5 ATS as road favorites, with their last cover coming back in 2022.
2008 was the last Backyard Brawl that featured a home underdog in the series and any total above 58.5 would be the highest in the series in over 20 years.
Four For Fighting
Wisconsin in the bowl game.
USC in their opener.
Nicholls State last week.
LSU has lost three consecutive games ATS entering this week's game vs. South Carolina. The Tigers haven't lost four consecutive games ATS going all the way back to 2016.
The Brawl
Oregon is going to be laying over two touchdowns at Oregon State this week.
Let's start with the Beavers. Since 2021, they are 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country.
Oregon State hasn't closed +14 or higher at home since 2019 and is 4-11 ATS in that spot over the past 20 years.
The Volunteer Half
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 42-17-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a mark of 22-7-1 1H ATS away from home.
In Week 1, Tennessee covered the -24.5 first-half spread, leading 45-0 against Chattanooga.
In Week 2, Tennessee covered the -4.5 first-half spread, leading 20-3 against NC State.
I Come With Caution
Florida State has lost consecutive games as a 10+ pt favorite and is now a favorite in its next game. Teams to lose back-to-back games as a 10+ pt favorite and be favored in their next game are 5-11-1 ATS since 2000 and just 9-8 SU. Teams to lose back-to-back games as a 7+ pt favorite are just 34-43-2 ATS and two games under .500 SU since 2000. Tough spot for the Seminoles.
The Brawl
Both Michigan and NC State got blown out in Week 2 and are now big favorites in Week 3.
Teams to lose by 14+ pts and then be favored by 20+ pts in their next game are 35-55-3 ATS since 2020, with the over 53-39-1 in those games.
Bounce Back
Virginia Tech has failed to cover the spread in its first two games of the year and is now laying close to two touchdowns against Old Dominion.
Teams to lose ATS in their first two games and lay double-digits in that third game win 90% SU and are 57% ATS since 1990. Few candidates for this one in Week 3.
Staying Afloat
In Week 2, Cal pulled off the big upset as 12-pt 'dogs against Auburn and now turn the table being big favorites this week against San Diego State. Teams favored by double-digits after a win as a double-digit 'dog in their previous game are actually a good bet historically early in the season (first four games), winning 84% of games SU since 1990, going 51-37-1 ATS.
Not All Rainbows
Hawaii has played its first two games of the year at home and now has its first road game. Early road games have been tough for Hawaii coming off a nice home game for them — they are 7-27 SU and 13-21 ATS in road games in September or earlier since 2008 — worth noting their average line for these games was +15, with them being a close dog against Sam Houston State.
Home 'Dogs Again
Florida is on the cusp of being listed as a home underdog for a second time this season after being a home 'dog against Miami in its opener.
It's been over 30 years since Florida had three home games or more as an underdog in a single season. Long season to go.
Not All Rainbows
As a favorite of 6 pts or more on the road, Brian Kelly has had a near clean sheet. He is 31-2 SU in those games, but is covering the spread in just 18 of those games.
One of those two losses came with LSU, with the Tigers losing to Texas A&M in 2022.
Corn Up
Nebraska is 2-0 ATS to start the season. Other teams have fallen on their face, the Cornhuskers have stayed strong.
Nebraska hasn't started the season 3-0 ATS since 2009 — the only other 3-0 ATS start for Nebraska since 1995. Nebraska is just 2-5 ATS as a favorite of 20 pts or more since 2017.
Lay It
We are now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they are over 57% ATS.
No Upsets
Here's your weekly college football wind report. In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005. Unders in high wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year. In 2024, unders are 3-2-1 in these games.
Through The Trenches
When facing non-Service Academy teams, Air Force, Navy and Army been a good ATS bet as underdogs against the first-half spread.
In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 90-59 ATS (60.4%) for a +16% ROI as underdogs against the first half spread — being .500 ATS or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
This week, Air Force is listed as an underdog against Baylor.
