In 2024, we finally get our first top-five battle of the season with Georgia and Alabama, and some history on the line to pay attention to on the closing line.
Let's look at Week 5 college football action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Dogs No More
Since 2008, Georgia is 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS vs. Alabama and the Bulldogs have been favored over the Tide in three straight matchups entering this 2024 showdown.
Alabama's last three games as an underdog during the regular season have all come against Georgia (2023, 2021, 2015). The Tide's last regular season game as an underdog vs. anyone but Georgia was 2009 against Florida and Tim Tebow.
After 113 consecutive home games as a favorite, Alabama is currently a home underdog vs. Georgia next week.
The Tide's last game as a home dog? November 3, 2007. +6.5 vs. Matt Flynn and LSU
Top Home 'Dog
Alabama could close as a home underdog in a top-five matchup.
The last top-five team to be a home dog vs. another top-five opponent was Notre Dame vs. Clemson, twice in 2020. These top-five home dogs are just 4-12 SU and 7-9 ATS in the last 30 years.
Overall, a top-five team has been a home dog 71 times since 1990 — they're 18-53 SU, 28-42-1 ATS.
Chalk Trouble
It's been a season of chalk so far, at least from a point spread perspective. The average spread for favorites this year is 19.5 PPG — the highest mark since 2013 through four weeks and the third-highest mark since 1990.
Favorites in terms of performance have been just mediocre, under .500 ATS and only 81% SU with already 58 straight-up losses.
California Dreamin'
Oregon has had UCLA's number. Since 2000, the Ducks are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against the Bruins.
Before last week against LSU, UCLA hadn't closed as a 20+ point underdog since 2019.
Dating back to 1990, UCLA has never closed as 20-point underdogs in consecutive games.
Badger Heads West
Wisconsin heads out west to start up its new form Big Ten Conference play. Since 2005, the Badgers have played five total games in PST and they're just 1-4 ATS in those games, with this being the first time Wisconsin is listed as an underdog in that spot.
USC, on the other hand, is coming off a loss against Michigan, and under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS off a SU loss, with the over being 5-2 in those games.
Hawk Over
- Week 1 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 2 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 3 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 4 of college football featured an Iowa over.
Entering 2024, Iowa unders were 21-6 over the past three years, the best mark in college football. Now, for the first time in at least the past 20 years, Iowa overs started the season 2-0 — and are now 4-0.
Iowa hadn't gone over in three straight games since 2021 (four straight), and it hasn't gone over in five straight games at any point in the last 20 years.
The Hawkeyes are off this week with Ohio State on deck.
We Got One
Entering Week 4, Florida State was the first team since 2008 to lose its first three games of the season outright all as a favorite.
After finally pushing through and beating Cal, the Seminoles are on the board and now face SMU this week.
Florida State is actually 17-10 ATS after a SU win since 2021.
The LSU Five
- Wisconsin in the bowl game.
- USC in its opener.
- Nicholls State in their second game.
- South Carolina two weeks ago.
- UCLA last week.
LSU has lost five consecutive games ATS entering this week's game vs. South Alabama. The Tigers haven't lost four consecutive games ATS going all the way back to 2016, and they hadn't lost five straight since 2008, when the Tigers lost six consecutive games ATS.
Large Hurricane
Miami has started the season not only 4-0 SU, but also 4-0 ATS.
That's the first time since 2016 that Miami has started 4-0 SU/ATS and only the third time the Hurricanes have done that in the last 30 years.
Miami Largest Spread vs. VT Since 1990
- -19.5, 1992, won 43-23
- -17.5, 2002, won 56-45
- -16, 1993, won 21-2
Under The Radar
North Carolina is coming off one of the more embarrassing losses, allowing 70 points to James Madison at home.
Since 2019, teams to allow 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24-1 and the total going under by five points per game.
US-See You Later
After beating USC, teams are 29-15 SU (66%) and 22-20-2 ATS in their next game since 2013.
When they're listed as favorites in that next game, they're 26-7 SU (79%) and 18-13-2 ATS. There's no hangover.
Lay it Out
It's James Franklin season — early year, big line. Penn State is above a two-TD favorite against Illinois.
In his career with Vanderbilt and Penn State, Franklin is 96-66-5 ATS (59%) in lined games. He's 43-24-2 ATS (64%) when he's favored by 10 points or more, with a $100 bettor being up $1,715 in those games under Franklin (best of 405 head coaches in the Bet Labs database in the last 20 years).
Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS.
No Contest
The Buckeyes have won 88 consecutive games SU as a favorite of 20+ points. Since 2016, they're 36-0 SU and 20-14-2 ATS as that big of a favorite.
Ohio State has won and covered the spread in seven straight meetings vs. Michigan State, with the Spartans losing by 20+ points SU in each of the games.
Out Of My Lane
Lane Kiffin has avoided the big upset for the most part in his career. As a double-digit favorite, he's 56-3 SU, with his last loss coming at the hands of Charlotte when he was at Florida Atlantic in 2018.
In those 59 games, he's just 31-26-3 ATS.
Irish Exit
Since 2017, Notre Dame is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in September when playing with one loss or more on the season.
Two weeks ago against Purdue, the Irish demolished the Boilermakers, continuing their trend in this spot. Last week, they fell short of covering vs. Miami (OH), winning 28-3 as 27.5-point favorites.
Since 2017, Notre Dame is also 31-8 SU and 23-15-1 ATS after a win by 20+ points.
The Bounce Back
Here's a bit of a surprise: Oklahoma is coming off a home loss to Tennessee last week and now it has to travel on the road to face Auburn.
The Sooners have dropped their last four games against the spread dating back to 2017 after a SU home loss, including going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in this spot.
You can say the same thing for Auburn — which lost at home to Arkansas — but it's a different story. The Tigers are 11-6 ATS after a home loss since 2016.
Auburn hasn't won a game outright as a home underdog since 2019, losing nine in a row.
Playing a Role
The Buffaloes face UCF this week, and they're double-digit underdogs.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 16 games. In seven of those games, they've been favorites, and in nine, they've been underdogs.
As a favorite, they're 6-1 SU, and as underdogs, they're 1-8 SU, with their lone win coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together.
In terms of Colorado history, the Buffs are just 4-31 SU and 14-19-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2017.
True Dogs
There are lots of measures of "Texas is back." One of those is being undefeated, both SU and ATS.
Texas is 4-0 SU/ATS to start the 2024 season, the first time it's done that since 2008.
If this game closes +34 or higher for Mississippi State, it would be the Bulldogs' biggest line as an underdog since at least 1990.
The Volunteer Half
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-22-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a mark of 28-8-1 1H ATS away from home.
The Vols are off in Week 5 and come back vs. Arkansas.
- In Week 1, Tennessee covered the -24.5 first-half spread, leading 45-0 against Chattanooga.
- In Week 2, Tennessee covered the -4.5 first-half spread, leading 20-3 against NC State.
- In Week 3, Tennessee covered the -33.5 first-half spread, leading 65-0 against Kent State.
- In Week 4, Tennessee covered the -3.5 first-half spread, leading 19-3 against Oklahoma.
Beaver Up
Oregon State gets another shot to improve its home ATS record after the bye this week.
Since 2021, the Beavers are 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country.
Lay it
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS.
No Upsets
Here's your weekly college football wind report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005. Unders in high wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 5-5-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years.
