After a few highly ranked teams lost in Week 5 — including Ole Miss and Georgia — this week is about bounce backs.
Let's look at Week 6 college football action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Fall is Here
Welcome to college football in October.
Over the last 20 years, here are the most profitable coaches against the spread in October:
- Mike Gundy: 46-25 ATS
- Brian Kelly: 43-23 ATS
- Matt Campbell: 29-14-1 ATS
Even over the last five seasons, all three coaches are above .500 ATS in October:
- Gundy: 13-3 ATS
- Kelly: 9-6 ATS
- Campbell: 9-6 ATS
Post Dawg
The game after facing Georgia is always emotional for Alabama, but the Tide have normally taken care of business, going 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS since 1990 after facing the Bulldogs.
Alabama's loss to Michigan last year after facing Georgia was its first SU loss in the spot since 2007. It's truly a unique spot too, as Alabama has only had to hit the road after Georgia once (2020) since 2007.
Alabama has faced Vanderbilt three times since 2010 — 40.5-, 20- and 29.5-point spreads. All three were covers by the Tide as they won by a combined score of 148-3. As a favorite of 14 points or more on the road, Alabama is 47-1 SU and 29-18-1 ATS since 1990.
Service Time
Service Academy unders have been the historical cash cow, going 50-10-3 since 2003.
The O/U in this game opened at 38.5 and is down to 35.5 now. Only four Service Academy games have closed with a total below 36 in the last 20 years. Those games are 2-1-1 to the under, with an average of 28.5 PPG in each.
In Service Academy games, look towards the underdog historically as well.
Bounce Back
Let's look at the other side of this: Georgia is the exact same 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS the game after facing Alabama since 1990, including 6-0 SU at home.
Overall, Georgia has beaten Auburn in seven consecutive meetings SU; it's 6-1 ATS in that span. Dating back to 2014, Georgia is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS vs. Auburn, with the under hitting in eight of 11 games.
It isn't often Georgia is playing a game off of a loss when it's 45-3 SU since 2021, but it's 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS after a loss in its last 11 games in the spot since 2016, including 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS since start of 2016.
Spartan Journey
Michigan State heads west to face Oregon in Eugene, and the road trip out west hasn't been friendly to the Spartans in recent history.
They've traveled to MST or PST four times since 2005, and they're 0-4 SU/ATS.
When looking specifically at road games, in 2004, Michigan State went to Hawaii. It lost SU and ATS.
Before that, in 1998, Michigan State traveled to Eugene. It lost to Oregon, 48-14.
You would then have to go back to 1989 — when Michigan State won a road game in Hawaii — for its last "west road trip" victory.
All Eyes on Berkeley
Speaking of heading west, Miami goes to California to face the Bears in Berkeley. Since 2005, Miami has only played one game in either MST or PST, and that was a 2008 game against Cal, which it lost, 24-17.
When looking specifically at road games, Miami traveled to Washington to face the Huskies in 2000. The Canes lost SU and ATS.
Before that, Miami traveled to UCLA in 1995. It lost to UCLA, 31-8.
You would then have to go back to 1994 — when Miami won a road game in Arizona State — for its last "west road trip" victory.
Miami was lucky to stay undefeated last week, beating Virginia Tech on a wild last-minute, back-and-forth game, but the Hurricanes lost their first game of the year ATS.
Since 2015, Miami is just 8-11 SU and 5-14 ATS the game after it had a SU win but lost the game ATS.
Ole News
Lane Kiffin has avoided the big upset for the most part in his career. He didn't last week. As a double-digit favorite, he's 56-4 SU now.
When Kiffin's teams have played a game after a SU loss as a favorite of seven points or more, they're 4-0 ATS.
As a road favorite, Lane Kiffin is 27-7 SU and 18-15-1 ATS as a college head coach. Since 2019, Kiffin is 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS as a favorite on the road.
Kiffin is 2-0 SU/ATS against South Carolina, one with Ole Miss and one with Tennessee.
Hawk Over
- Week 1 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 2 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 3 of college football featured an Iowa over.
- Week 4 of college football featured an Iowa over.
Entering 2024, Iowa unders were 21-6 over the past three years, the best mark in college football.
Now, for the first time in at least the past 20 years, Iowa overs started the season 2-0 — and are now 4-0.
Here are the schools 4-0 to the over or better entering this week:
- Miami (FL): 5-0
- Connecticut: 5-0
- Iowa: 4-0
- Ball State: 4-0
- Boise State: 4-0
- Navy: 4-0
- Vanderbilt: 4-0
- UCF: 4-0
On the other side, here are your winless teams against the spread this season:
- Washington: 0-5
- Houston: 0-5
- Cal: 0-4
- Hawaii: 0-4
- Kent State: 0-4
- Miami (OH): 0-4
- UTEP: 0-4
Iowa hadn't gone over in three straight games since 2021 (four straight), and it hasn't gone over in five straight games at any point in the last 20 years.
Looking at the total from the Buckeyes' point of view, they've only played one game with a total of 45 or less dating all the way back to 2012, and that was a game vs. Rutgers last year that closed at 44 (OSU won 35-16 on the road).
Historically, Ohio State has dominated Iowa. Since 1992, it's 14-2 SU and 10-5-1 ATS vs. the Hawkeyes, winning by almost two touchdowns per game.
The Buckeyes have won 89 consecutive games SU as a favorite of 20+ points. Since 2016, they're 37-0 SU and 21-14-2 ATS as that big of a favorite.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 101 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 61-40 to the under (60.4%).
The last five years entering 2024, unders have been above .500 in games with a total of 60+. They're 53.6% to the under by 1.3 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Home Trouble
The lookahead line for Michigan-Washington was the Wolverines -8.5 prior to Week 5, but now the line is down to under five for Michigan.
The home underdog role hasn't been friendly to Washington in recent history. It's 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS as a home dog since 2013, losing by 11.3 points per game.
In that span, no other team has even five such losses without a win.
Michigan travels to the pacific northwest in October just feels like an odd thing to say. This will be Michigan's just third game in MST or PST in the last 20 years. It faced Utah on the road in 2015 and played USC in the Rose Bowl in 2007. The Wolverines are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, scoring 17 and 18 points, respectively.
This is Michigan's first true road game since November 18 of last season against Ohio State, and the Wolverines have won 12 consecutive road games outright dating back to 2021.
Bronco Domination
This matchup has seen absolute dominance in recent history. Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos have also won 11 consecutive home games SU vs. Utah State.
The other story is Ashton Jeanty, who's on pace to potentially break some records this season.
Big Number
2024 hasn't gone exactly how Florida State planned, and that's best represented by this week's spread.
The Seminoles are double-digit home dogs to Clemson.
Here are Florida State's biggest lines as a home dog since 1990:
- +18 — 2018 vs. Clemson (L, 59-10)
- +16.5 — 2008 vs. Florida (L, 45-15)
- +13.5 — 2020 vs. North Carolina (W, 31-28)
Florida State ended Clemson's six-game win streak vs. the Seminoles last season, getting their first victory over the Tigers since 2014 — which is also the last time they won consecutive games vs. Clemson, winning three in a row.
Amazingly enough, Clemson has won three straight on the road in Tallahassee, with its last loss coming in that same 2014 year. Since 2015, Clemson has three of Florida State's 19 total home losses in that span.
Since 2003, Clemson has played a road game off three or more consecutive home games — a long homestand — and it's 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS.
The New Big Ten
It's pretty wild set of circumstances for the USC Trojans to struggle so much outside of their home territory.
According to Bet Labs' lined CFB games, USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the pacific standard time zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. None of the seven USC head coaches in the last 20 years has a winning ATS record in this spot.
As a road favorite of seven points or more, USC has won 19 consecutive games SU dating back to 2014.
Bruin Bruises
This UCLA season is going to be one to remember for the wrong reasons.
Before UCLA's game vs. LSU two weeks ago, the Bruins hadn't closed as a 20+ point underdog since 2019.
Dating back to 1990, UCLA has never closed as 20-point underdogs in consecutive games. It's now going to be 20-point underdogs in three straight games.
UCLA has lost 15 consecutive games SU vs. top-10 teams after its loss vs. Oregon last week. The Bruins now have Penn State on deck.
It's James Franklin season — producing a big line early in the year. Penn State is close to a four-TD favorite this week.
In his career with Vanderbilt and Penn State, Franklin is 96-67-5 ATS (59%) in lined games. He's 43-25-2 ATS (63%) when he's favored by 10 points or more, with a $100 bettor being up $1,615 in those games under Franklin (best of 406 head coaches in the Bet Labs database in the last 20 years).
Ups & Downs
Here are your undefeated teams to the over this season:
- Connecticut: 5-0
- Miami (FL): 5-0
- UCF: 4-0
- Vanderbilt: 4-0
- Navy: 4-0
Here are your undefeated teams to the under this season:
- Hawaii: 0-4
- UTEP: 0-4
- Miami-Ohio: 0-4
- Kent State: 0-4
- Cal: 0-4
- Houston: 0-5
- Washington: 0-5
The Volunteer Half
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-22-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a mark of 28-8-1 1H ATS away from home.
- In Week 1, Tennessee covered the -24.5 first-half spread, leading 45-0 against Chattanooga.
- In Week 2, Tennessee covered the -4.5 first-half spread, leading 20-3 against NC State.
- In Week 3, Tennessee covered the -33.5 first-half spread, leading 65-0 against Kent State.
- In Week 4, Tennessee covered the -3.5 first-half spread, leading 19-3 against Oklahoma.
Beaver Up
Oregon State gets another shot to improve its home ATS record this week.
Since 2021, the Beavers are 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country.
Hoosier Hysteria
Indiana is 5-0 SU to start a season for the first time since 1967.
The Hoosiers have covered the spread in four straight games and only lost ATS in their opener, winning by 24 on a 25.5-point spread.
Indiana hasn't closed as a double-digit road favorite since 2020, and this will be its biggest road spread vs. Big Ten opponent since facing Rutgers in 2018 as 14.5-point road favorites.
Top Dogs
Texas A&M, Arkansas and a few other teams have good spots this week.
Teams coming off a neutral site matchup are posting a 62.2% win percentage in their next game, including going 89-23 SU (80%) when that game is played at home.
Top-10 teams that are listed as underdogs against teams outside the top-10 have struggled lately, going 5-14 SU and 8-11 ATS since 2021.
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS.
Wind Rules
Here's your weekly college football wind report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005.
Unders in high wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 7-7-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years.
