We have three top-25 matchups on tap in Week 7 of college football after last week's chaos, where we saw three unranked teams take out top-10 teams, with almost a fourth in Miami–California deep into Sunday morning.
Let's look at Week 7 college football action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Ducks A Rare 'Dog
Ohio State faces a top-10 team on the road this week in Oregon. Since 2018, the Buckeyes haven't been fantastic against the number in these big matchups; they are 6-13-1 ATS, covering just 2 of their last nine games in the spot.
That 6-13-1 ATS mark is the 2nd-worst in that span in all of college football behind only Michigan State at 3-13 ATS.
In top-5 matchups, Ohio State has lost three in a row SU and 4 of its last five overall.
Oregon isn't a home underdog often in Autzen; it's not Bryant-Denny Stadium long, but it's long. The Ducks' last game as a home dog came back in 2018 against Washington — a streak of 33 consecutive home games. They last closed +4 or higher at home back in 2016 vs. Washington.
Oregon last closed as a home dog vs. a team not based in the MST or PST all the way back in 2003 against Michigan — a game it won 31-27.
Oregon could close as a home underdog in a top-five matchup. Just two weeks ago, we saw Alabama close as a home dog vs. Georgia is in a top-5 matchup and win outright.
Prior to that, the last top-five team to be a home dog vs. another top-five opponent was Notre Dame vs. Clemson, twice in 2020. These top-five home dogs are just 5-12 SU and 8-9 ATS in the last 30 years.
Overall, a top-five team has been a home dog 72 times since 1990 — they're 19-53 SU, 29-42-1 ATS.
A Long Favorite
Texas is a pretty big favorite against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry this week.
Biggest Texas Favorite vs. Oklahoma Since 1970
1996, -21, Lost 30-27
1970, -17, Won 41-9
2005, -14, Won 45-12
1998, -8, Won 34-3
2022, -7.5, Won 49-0
2006, -5.5, Won 28-10
1971, -5.5, Lost 48-27
The rivalry hasn't been much of one lately. Texas is just 4-11 SU in its last 15 meetings vs. Sooners, being a favorite in just two of those games.
This will be the second Red River Rivalry game since 1990, where both Texas and Oklahoma are coming off extended rest. The other? The Big 12 Championship in 2018, a 39-27 win by the Sooners.
Not to mention with the Longhorns, since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-22 ATS.
Chalk It Up
It's been a season of chalk so far, at least from a point-spread perspective. The average spread for favorites this year is 17.3 PPG — the highest mark since 2013 through six weeks and the 2nd-highest mark since 1990.
Favorites in terms of performance have been pretty below mediocre, going 79% SU but just 48% ATS, the 2nd-worst non-COVID year start since 2014.
Uncharted Territory
This will be Penn State's first game in either MST or PST since 2009 against this same USC team in the Rose Bowl, a 38-24 loss to the Trojans. Penn State's last road game came in its opener against West Virginia. Overall, Penn State has been a bit of a wagon on the road recently; it is 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games dating back to 2020.
USC is coming off a loss against Minnesota last week, and under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS off a SU loss, with the over being 6-2 in those games.
The Trojans have played a bit of a different role lately. USC has won two consecutive games against SU as dogs — the first time it has done that since 2013-14. Over the last decade, USC is 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS as an underdog. That's the worst ATS win percentage among any school with 30-plus games as a dog in that span.
USC hasn’t won a game against SU as an underdog of five points or more since Nov. 12, 2016, vs. Washington when Sam Darnold beat Jake Browning.
Overall, this is USC's biggest line as a home dog vs. a conference opponent since facing Oregon in 2012.
It's a pretty wild set of circumstances for the USC Trojans to struggle so much outside of its home territory. According to Bet Labs' lined CFB games, USC is 19-35-2 ATS (35%) in games played outside the Pacific Standard Time Zone, going 2-8 ATS since the start of 2021. None of the seven USC head coaches in the last 20 years has a winning ATS record in this spot.
That was last week, and now USC returns home as a dog. After losing as a road favorite, USC is 2-6 SU as home dogs in its next game since 1990. Since 2019, all CFB teams in that spot have won just 35% of games SU.
Going Back to Cali
A bit different of a spot. Minnesota hasn't traveled to PST since 2019, but it has actually won its last three games outright out west since 2012 against Fresno State, Oregon State and UNLV. When they go to MST or PST, the Gophers have actually won outright in their last six games in that spot, being a dog actually twice in those matchups.
After beating USC, teams are 30-15 SU (66%) and 22-21-2 ATS in its next game since 2013. When it's listed as favorites in that next game, they're 27-7 SU and 18-14-2 ATS. There's no hangover.
Overall, UCLA has actually lost its last four home games straight up, dating back to last season — its first four-game SU losing streak at home since 2019. It hasn't lost five straight at home in over 30 years.
Playing A Role
The Buffaloes face Kansas State this week, and they're listed as underdogs.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 17 games. In seven of those games, it's been favorites, and in ten, it's been underdogs.
As a favorite, the Buffs are 6-1 SU (3-3-1 ATS), and as underdogs, they're 2-8 SU, with their lone wins coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together and last week against UCF. After Colorado's win vs. TCU, it lost to Oregon by 36 in its next game.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 113 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 71-42 to the under (62.8%).
In the last five years entering 2024, unders have been above .500 in games with a total of 60+. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Coming Through the Dore
Vanderbilt goes for history this week. It beat Alabama as 23.5-pt underdogs last week and it's double-digit dogs this week vs. Kentucky. If the Commodores close at +14 or higher, they will become the first team since 2004 Army to win as 14+ dogs in back-to-back games this early in the season.
Low Tide?
It isn't often that Alabama is coming off a loss, especially a loss like that, losing to unranked Vanderbilt last week as 24-point favorites.
Since 2017, Alabama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS after a SU loss, with all seven games going under the total. DeBoer has only coached four games after a SU loss, he is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing as a favorite in two of those games.
The bad news for Alabama is that — Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorite are 21-5 SU in their next game, but just 9-17 ATS with the under 17-6-1 in those games.
South Carolina has covered three games in a row against Alabama. Dating back to 2001, it's 3-3 SU vs. Alabama, just one of two schools .500 SU or better vs. the Tide since that year with a minimum of three meetings (Oklahoma).
Entering this matchup, Alabama has lost two straight ATS at home — it hasn't lost three straight ATS in Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2017 (losing four in a row ATS).
At Your Service
Army is 1 of 4 schools undefeated ATS this season, entering Week 7 with Eastern Michigan, Marshall and BYU — with just Army and BYU sitting undefeated both SU and ATS.
Last year, Oregon, Penn State and Oklahoma were the lone 5-0 SU/ATS teams.
Army is the 2nd Service Academy school to accomplish this feat since 1990 — with Air Force back in 2002 starting 5-0 SU/ATS.
Clawing Back to Victory
Missouri is coming off a thumping on the hands of Texas A&M on the road last week, entering the game undefeated. It's a huge road favorite against UMass this week.
As a favorite of over 21 pts, Missouri is 41-0 SU since 1990. The Tigers are 23-17-1 ATS in those games. When they are off a loss in those games, 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS.
Teams who are coming off a loss as a top-10 ranked team and are listed as favorites of 20+ in their next game are 56-4 SU but only 23-32-5 ATS in their next game, with those games actually going under the total by 4.6 PPG (37-22-1 to under). This also works for Alabama this week.
Missouri got blown out in Week 6 and are now big favorites in Week 7. Teams to lose by 14+ pts and then be favored by 20+ pts in their next game are 89-10 SU, but just 37-59-3 ATS since 2020, with the over 55-43-1 in those games.
Carolina Reaper
How has Clemson performed after facing Florida State under Dabo Swinney? Pretty good. He's 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS the game after facing the Seminoles, winning by 25 PPG. Dabo has been favored by an average of 17 PPG in the game after Florida State.
Clemson will travel from Tallahassee to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest. Under Dabo, Clemson is 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite on a road trip (2nd game or later on the road), and he's just 2-5 SU/ATS when under -10 on the spread.
Runnin' to the Top
No UNLV coach has the early success of Barry Odom. The Rebels have three seasons of 9+ wins in their history and Odom has one of those and is almost halfway there again.
Even after the loss last week with a chance to win and cover late, Odom is 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS with the Rebels and he was 25-25 SU and 23-27 ATS in his time with Missouri. At UNLV, he's the best coach ATS since at least 1990.
Ups & Downs
Here are your undefeated teams to the over this season:
- Miami: 6-0
- UConn: 6-0
- Ball State: 5-0
- Boise State: 5-0
- Navy: 5-0
- Vanderbilt: 5-0
Here are your undefeated teams to the under this season:
- Houston: 0-6
Big Bad Jeanty
Boise State hasn't lost to Hawaii since 2007. The Broncos are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS since that loss to the Rainbow Warriors. Boise has been 20+ pt favorites vs. Hawaii three times in the last 30 years and it is 3-0 SU/ATS.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is on an unreal pace right now through five games.
He has 95 carries, 1,031 rush yds, 10.9/carry, 16 TD
13-game projection: 267 carries, 2,681 rush yds, 42 TD
Here were Barry Sanders's marks through five games in 1988:
130 carries, 1,002 rush yds, 8.5/carry, 19 TD
Sanders finished with 344 carries, 2,628 rush yards, 7.7/carry, 37 TD.
Irish Luck or Cardinal Rule?
Notre Dame has closed as a double-digit favorite at home against Stanford seven times since 1990 — The Fighting Irish are only 4-3 SU in those games, losing their last such meeting as a double-digit favorite in South Bend back in 2022.
This will be Notre Dame's 8th game during the season on extended rest under Marcus Freeman and the Irish are 6-1 SU/ATS, including 5-2 to the over in that game.
Free No More
Liberty is off a long break for this one. It hasn't played since September 21st — a break of 17 days. Since 2020, long rest has not equaled on-field success. In over a 300-plus game sample size, CFB teams on this long a break are 46% SU off the layoff.
Since 2021, teams on such a layoff, as favorites of 7+, just 27-11 SU and an even 19-19 ATS.
Utes of the Night
Utah and Kyle Whittingham are coming off a bye week before facing Arizona State on the road this week. Utah is 18-9 SU in road games coming off extended rest under Whittingham, and won four in a row dating back to 2021. Utah is 14-7 SU in this spot when its opponent also isn't on the same rest spot.
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games in regard to the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 312-244-3 (56.1%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later.
The Volunteer Half
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-23-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a mark of 28-9-1 1H ATS away from home, even after a 1H ATS loss last week against Arkansas.
When he's laying -7 or more in the first half, his teams are 29-9-2 (76%) against the first-half spread, even after the loss to Arkansas last week.
From a full game perspective — since 2021, Florida is 16-27 ATS, including 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS on the road, with those games going 11-4 to the over.
Missing Home Cookin'
Forget the fact that Cal will be traveling from its home base out west to Pittsburgh for this game, but historically, Cal has struggled on the road directly after a home game. Since 2010, it's 10-39 SU and 22-28 ATS playing a road game directly after a home game, including 5-34 SU as underdogs in that game.
Dawgs Spread Thin
Georgia's lost four in a row ATS, including three games vs. SEC opponents. The Bulldogs haven't lost four straight ATS since 2020 before this. This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately.
Stay In Your Lane
Lane Kiffin has faced LSU four times in his coaching career — all coming with Ole Miss — and he is an even 2-2 SU/ATS but 0-2 SU/ATS on the road in Baton Rouge, losing by 15 PPG. As a road favorite, Lane Kiffin is 28-7 SU and 19-15-1 ATS as a college head coach. Since 2019, Kiffin is 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS as a favorite on the road.
When it comes to Brian Kelly, Kiffin has faced the opposing head coach five times and Kiffin is 2-3 SU/ATS, only being listed as a favorite once, in their first meeting with USC and Notre Dame back in 2010.
On the other side, Brian Kelly and LSU are off a full extra week of rest for this matchup — in Kelly's career as a coach, he is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS playing at home on extended rest.
After a SU and ATS win, Brian Kelly-coached teams are 37-4 SU and 26-15 ATS in their next game.
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS.
Wind Rules
Here's your weekly college football wind report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005.
Unders in high-wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 9-11-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years.
