Week 7 of the college football season lived up to the hype with one of the best slates we've seen in some time. Now, a week later we get to settle in for Texas-Georgia, Alabama-Tennessee and more. Buckle up.
Let's look at Week 8 college football action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Free To Cover
Marcus Freeman is having a great run in his Notre Dame coaching tenure when it comes to covering the spread. He is currently 35-10 straight up and 29-15-1 against the spread (65.9%).
With a minimum 40 games coached, that 65.9% ATS win percentage is the highest for any head coach in college football since 1990.
That mark includes 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in neutral site games, with the over going 5-1 in those matchups. In road and neutral site games, Freeman is 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS, with the over going 15-5-1.
Notre Dame might want to be careful this week though. Since 2022, no team has more upsets as a double-digit favorite than Georgia Tech.
Four schools have won 4+ games outright as double-digit underdogs since 2022:
+ Georgia Tech: 5
+ BC, Vanderbilt & Northwestern: 4
A New World
Florida State is listed as an underdog in their third consecutive game, this time against Duke. It's the first time the Seminoles have done been 'dogs at least three games in a row since 2021.
When Mike Norvell plays a game on extended rest, his teams started his tenure at FSU 8-2 SU and are now 0-3 SU since, with Norvell losing ATS in his last five coached games on extended rest with FSU.
Florida State has faced Duke twice under Norvell and the Seminoles are 2-0 SU/ATS, winning by at least 18 points in both games. FSU has beaten Duke in all 22 meetings — the school's 22-0 record against Duke is the most wins without a loss by one current Power 5 team vs. another in the Poll Era (since 1936).
In the 22 meetings vs. Duke, Florida State has never closed as the underdog.
Seeing Red
For Oklahoma and Texas, there is very little like the Red River Rivalry in terms of big games on the season.
For the Sooners, bouncing back off an emotional game against Texas hasn't been too hard. Since 2000, they are 23-2 SU and 15-10 ATS the week after playing Texas. At home after playing Texas, the Sooners are 12-1 SU in that spot, with all 13 games listing Oklahoma over a touchdown favorite.
When Oklahoma is coming off a SU loss to Texas since 1999, they are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in their next game.
Looking specifically at the spread, Oklahoma under Brent Venables has been terrible when they aren't projected to blow out their opponent. As a single-digit favorite or underdog, Oklahoma is 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS.
New Dawg
Before we get into the Texas-Georgia matchup, let's do the same for Texas as we did for Oklahoma.
The numbers are even better. Texas is 23-3 SU and 16-9-1 ATS after facing Texas since 1999. As a favorite they are 17-1 SU in that spot, as an underdog, they are still 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS since that 1999 date the week after facing the Sooners.
This will be just the second time Texas has to play a top-five team the game after facing Oklahoma since 1990 — they beat Nebraska as underdogs back in 2010.
In terms of facing top-5 opponents, let's see how both Kirby Smart and Steve Sarkisian fare.
Even after the loss to Alabama a few weeks ago, Kirby is 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS vs. top-5 teams, winning six in a row SU prior to the loss to 'Bama. Oddly enough, this will be just Kirby's third game on the road vs. a top-five team, he's 0-2 SU/ATS, both against Alabama.
Steve Sarkisian has faced a top-five team 10 times in his coaching career with Texas and Washington, he is just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in those games, including 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite.
This will be Kirby Smart's 117th game as coach of the Bulldogs. He's been favored in 105 of them and an underdog in 11 of those games. As an underdog under Smart, Georgia is 4-7 SU, but 7-4 ATS. This would be Georgia's first game as a road dog (not neutral site) since facing Alabama in 2020.
Top Dogs
Underdogs in SEC conference games are 18-6 ATS so far this season — best mark of any conference.
Those dogs are 13-3 ATS last three weeks.
Rocky Times
Being a home underdog is a role that hasn't been friendly for Tennessee. Dating back to 2020, the Volunteers are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as a home 'dog. In that span, that straight up mark is the second-worst of any SEC team ahead of just Auburn (0-9 SU).
After nearly losing to South Carolina at home last week, Alabama has lost three straight ATS at home for the first time since 2017 (lost four in a row ATS). This week, 'Bama hits the road.
Alabama is in a unique spot in terms of the market from the last few weeks. They lost as 14-point favorites two weeks ago. Last week, also as a 14-point favorite, they barely survived, winning by two points. Teams after losing as a 14-point favorite, then ALMOST losing again (win by one possession) are just 11-15 SU and 10-15-1 ATS in their game after that two-game stretch since 1990.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has coached college football for six years — three at Tennessee and three at UCF.
In that span, his teams are 51-24-2 against the first-half spread — the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a mark of 28-9-1 1H ATS away from home.
In the last two weeks, Tennessee has been SHUTOUT in the first half against Florida and Arkansas.
Duck Domination
It's not the easiest task coming off a highly contested game against Ohio State. Since 2018, those teams are just 34-40 SU and 32-42 ATS after facing the Buckeyes, even after Iowa beat Washington last week.
An unexpected advantage. Teams coming off a game in which they faced a top-five team and then had to play on short rest the following week are 71-45 SU and 73-42-1 ATS (64%) since 2022. There are a few different teams in that spot this week with Oklahoma, USC and Mississippi State.
As a road favorite under Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS, beating their opponents by 25 PPG.
From Purdue's point of view, the underdog role hasn't done them well. In their last 14 games as a 'dog dating back to their Big Ten title game vs. Michigan they are 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as underdogs.
Bloomin' Onions
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (it's hard for me to even type that, being a grad if we are being honest) had some time off before facing Nebraska this week at home with a chance to keep it going.
Since 2015, undefeated teams in their sixth game or later, playing at home on extended rest are 61-10 SU and 39-28-4 ATS.
To start 2024, Indiana is 3-0 SU/ATS vs. Big Ten conference teams. Between 2021-23, Indiana was 3-24 SU against the Big Ten.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 127 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 83-44 to the under (65.4%) — the best start to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
Streaking Cyclone
Iowa State has won and covered the spread in five consecutive games dating back to Week 2 — this is the first SU and ATS win streak of five or more games for the Cyclones in the last 30 years.
Top-10 teams on a five-plus game SU and ATS win streak, that are double-digit favorites are 26-1 SU and 18-8-1 ATS over the last decade.
Freeze Tag
This will be the third game Auburn plays on extended rest under Hugh Freeze and the Tigers are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, losing away from home — a road or neutral site game — in both contests. Prior to Freeze's tenure with Auburn, he was 19-7 SU and 17-9 ATS on extended rest with Liberty, Mississippi and Arkansas State.
Dating back to 2020, Freeze's teams have lost nine consecutive games straight up against ranked opponents. Overall, Freeze is 12-27 SU in his 39 games vs. ranked opponents in his CFB coaching career, including 4-13 SU on the road, with those games going 12-4-1 to the under.
Even in the underdog role, Auburn has been terrible. Under Freeze, they are 1-6 SU, and going further back, they are 3-22 SU as dogs since 2020.
Mullet vs. Mormon
Under Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State is 31-17 SU and 26-19-3 ATS with 10-plus days to prep for a game. Over the last four seasons, they've played on the road off this long of a layoff and they won both games outright as underdogs against Baylor and Texas.
Gundy is 9-3 SU in his last 12 games when his team is on 10 or more days rest while his opponent is on normal seven-day rest.
As an underdog of over a touchdown, Gundy and Oklahoma State are actually 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS since 2018.
A New Role
Rutgers hasn't closed above a 6-point favorite against a conference opponent since closing as a 9-point favorite vs. Indiana in their first season in the conference in 2014.
Entering the LSU game earlier this season, UCLA played in the CST or EST time zone for the first time since 2019. Now after SU losses, but covers to LSU and Penn State on the road, UCLA has lost six straight road games in either CST or EST dating back to 2015 and is 5-6 ATS in 11 such games since 2011.
After last week's loss to Minnesota, UCLA has actually lost its past five home games straight up, dating back to last season — its longest losing streak since moving their home games to the Rose Bowl in 1982.
Prior to this season, the Bruins hadn't lost five consecutive games outright since 2018 and it is just the third instance in the last 30 years.
Canes Skidding
Miami has lost two consecutive games against the spread, but remains undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the country. Top-10 teams on an ATS losing streak of two or more games are 27-34 ATS (44.3%) this season. Over a full season, that ATS winning percentage would be the third-worst for any season since 2000.
When that team is undefeated SU, they are 3-12 ATS this season.
Welcome Home
Last week, Clemson traveled from Tallahassee to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest. Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson is now 6-0 SU/ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite on a road trip (second game or later on the road), and he's just 2-5 SU/ATS when under -10 on the spread.
Now Clemson returns home as a big favorite against Virginia. Swinney has closed above a touchdown favorite at home after a road trip twice, he has outscored his opponents 73-10 in those games.
Not Again
USC is coming off a loss against Penn State last week in an absolute thriller, and under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS off a SU loss, with the over being 7-2 in those games.
Riley started his career 45-8 SU in his first four seasons in Oklahoma. Since, he is 21-11 SU in three seasons with the Trojans.
It's a pretty wild set of circumstances for the Trojans to struggle so much outside of their home territory. According to Bet Labs' lined CFB games, USC is 20-35-2 ATS (36%) in games played outside the Pacific Standard Time Zone, going 3-8 ATS since the start of 2021 even after covering by a half point vs. Penn State last week. None of the seven USC head coaches in the last 20 years has a winning ATS record in this spot.
The role of the favorite hasn't been great for USC lately. They are 4-13 ATS as favorites since start of last season.
Ups & Downs
Here are your undefeated teams to the over this season:
- Miami: 6-0
- UConn: 6-0
- Ball State: 6-0
- Navy: 5-0
Here are your undefeated teams to the under this season:
- Houston: 0-6
Playing A Role
The Buffaloes face Arizona this week, and they're listed as underdogs.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 18 games. In seven of those games, the Buffs have been favorites, and in the other 11, they've been underdogs.
As a favorite, the Buffs are 6-1 SU (3-3-1 ATS), and as underdogs, they're 2-9 SU, with their lone wins coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together and two weeks ago against UCF.
After Ash
The road has not been kind to the Rainbow Warriors of late. Since 2020, Hawaii is 4-20 SU and 9-15 ATS on the road, including 2-16 SU in their last 18 total road games. Even worse, since 2010, Hawaii is 3-24 SU and 10-17 ATS when playing on the road vs. a non-conference opponent since 2010, losing 22 of their last 23 road games in that spot as underdogs.
It's not easy facing Ashton Jeanty. This season, teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the game after facing Boise State.
Unexpected Dog
Virginia Tech is on extended rest for this home game against Boston College this week, with the Hokies last playing on Oct. 5 against Stanford.
On extended rest, when listed as a favorite, Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU/ATS. As a home 'dog, the Hokies are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on extended rest under Brent Pry.
It isn't often you see a team with a better win percentage listed as a 6-point underdog, but that is BC this week. Those teams are winning just 30% of games SU, but are at 55.2% ATS since 2020. Also works for Houston this week.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games in regard to the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 314-245-3 (56.2%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later.
Prime Time
Since 2000, seven teams have played a game on a non-Saturday starting the year 0-5 SU or worse. Those teams are 1-6 SU, but 5-2 ATS in those contests.
This week that applies to Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee State and Florida International vs. UTEP.
Open Dores
This week is a bit of a different role for Vanderbilt. They've been listed as underdogs in three straight games and four of their six games this season.
Now they are almost four touchdown favorites against Ball State.
Teams to be listed as 'dogs in three straight games and then be a favorite of two touchdowns or more, are 66-8 SU since 2018, but just 31-42-1 ATS in those games.
Vandy is 1-0 SU/ATS as a 20-point favorite this season, beating up on Alcorn State. Dating back to 2013, Vandy is 3-8 ATS as a 20-point favorite.
On the other side, Diego Pavia has been favored by 20 or more points in four starts, one with Vandy, and three with New Mexico State — he is 4-0 SU/ATS in those games.
At Your Service
Army is one of three schools that remain undefeated against the spread this season entering Week 7 along with with Marshall and BYU — with just Army and BYU sitting undefeated both SU and ATS.
Last year, Penn State and Oklahoma were the lone 6-0 SU/ATS teams.
Army is the second Service Academy school to accomplish this feat since 1990 — with Air Force back in 2002 starting 6-0 SU/ATS.
Spread Thin
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This week that is Houston and Florida Atlantic.
Off Target
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS and above .500 ATS so far this season.
In Week 8, that includes Michigan, Alabama and Texas.
Will this be the week Michigan gets back on track? After back-to-back games without an ATS cover, they are 1-5 ATS this season — just the third time since 1990 the Wolverines have started 1-5 ATS or worse (2020, 2008).
Wind Rules
Here's your weekly college football weather report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005.
Unders in high-wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 10-11-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years and 7-3 this season.
