The first year of the 12-team playoff has brought chaos and great action so far. Let's look at Week 9 college football action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Action Network's weekly college football betting primer.
College Football Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
It's All A Gamble
Let's talk unexpected performances, because 2024 has brought plenty of those. BYU had a win total of 4.5 entering this year, they are 7-0 straight up so far this season. Indiana and Army are both undefeated at 7-0 SU this season. Both had win totals of just 5.5 entering the season.
Going back to 2010, excluding the 2020-shortened COVID season, only three teams entering this year have started 7-0 SU with a preseason win total below six.
2021 Michigan State, 5 (started 8-0 SU)
2013 Missouri, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
2011 Kansas State, 5.5 (started 7-0 SU)
Sad Sooner
Oklahoma hasn't closed above a 17-point underdog since Nov. 7, 1998. That day the Sooners were 19-point underdogs vs. No. 7-ranked Texas A&M loaded with Dante Hall, Dan Campbell, Dat Nguyen, Shane Lechler among others.
They haven't closed as 20+ point underdogs since November 22, 1997 as a 24-point underdog against Texas Tech — that would be a total of 348 games ago for Oklahoma.
Looking specifically at the spread, Oklahoma under Brent Venables has been terrible when they aren't projected to blow out their opponent. As a single-digit favorite or underdog, Oklahoma is 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS.
Playing A Role
The Buffaloes face Cincinnati this week, and they're listed as short home favorites.
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been together for 19 games. In seven of those games, the Buffs have been favorites, and in the other 12, they've been underdogs.
As a favorite, the Buffs are 6-1 SU (3-3-1 ATS), and as underdogs, they're 3-9 SU, with their lone wins coming against TCU as 21-point underdogs in their first game together, three weeks ago against UCF and last week vs. Arizona.
After Deion's previous two wins straight up as dogs, Colorado is 2-0 ATS in their next game.
As head coach of the Buffs, Deion is 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%). Since 2000, with minimum of 19 games coached like Deion, only Curt Cignetti and Jon Sumrall have a better ATS win percentage.
All Bloomy
Speaking of Curt Cignetti, he is 21-9 ATS with Indiana and James Madison. Cignetti is 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS in his last 17 games coached.
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers stay at home this week to face Washington. To start 2024, Indiana is 4-0 SU/ATS vs. Big Ten conference teams. Between 2021-23, Indiana was 3-24 SU against the Big Ten.
The Hoosiers have won and covered the spread in six straight games entering this week — the longest SU/ATS streak in the country. Teams on 6+ game SU/ATS streak are 57-31 SU and 36-49-3 ATS since 2010.
Indiana starting QB Kurtis Rourke is not expected to play vs. Washington this week with a thumb injury.
On the Washington side, this will be just the second game they play at Noon ET over the last 20 years — they played Iowa at Noon ET earlier this year, a 40-16 loss.
On The Road
BYU had a wild comeback last week vs. Oklahoma State to stay undefeated, but lost their first game ATS in the win.
Undefeated teams SU in their 8th game or later are 74-48-1 (61%) to the over in the last decade when playing on the road.
Undefeated teams SU in their 8th game or later are 43-60 SU, 46-56-1 ATS when the line is -4 or shorter or they are listed as an underdog since 2010.
The Big Rhule
Matt Rhule as a head coach…
2-21 SU in CFB vs. ranked teams
3-11 SU in NFL vs. teams above .500
Rhule has lost 16 consecutive games SU vs. ranked opponents — Nebraska has lost 26 consecutive games SU vs. ranked opponents.
As an underdog of 7 pts or more in college, Rhule is 3-32 SU, but 23-12 ATS.
Getting One
UTEP finally got on the board last week, getting their first SU win in 357 days. Now, on a short week, they play on Tuesday night on the road.
Since 2017, teams off getting their first SU win are winning just 45% of games SU and 48% ATS. When that game is on the road, the SU mark falls to 32%. When the game is in October or later, that SU mark is 38% since 1990.
Since 2000, UTEP is 2-13 SU vs. Louisiana Tech, including 1-6 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road.
Sunshine Setup
Florida State is listed as an underdog in their fourth consecutive game, this time against Miami. It's the first time the Seminoles have done been 'dogs at least four games in a row since 2021.
Florida State is traveling to Miami this week in another in-state showdown for the Hurricanes this season. Over the past 20 years, Miami is 25-22-1 ATS against schools in the state of Florida and 16-4 ATS when playing that school either in a neutral site or on the road, and 9-18-1 ATS when facing that school at home.
Down To Two
Here are your undefeated teams to the over this season:
- Miami: 7-0
- Navy: 6-0
The Hurricanes are the 8th team since 2006 to start the season 7-0 to the over. Those teams went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their next game, but just 2-5 to the over.
The teams to start 8-0 to the over: 2023 LSU and 2023 Vanderbilt.
Neutral Drive
Notre Dame has dominated the series SU recently, going 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings. Since 1990, the Irish have closed as a double-digit favorite vs. Navy at a neutral site seven times, they are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS.
The role as a favorite when playing at neutral site has boded well for Notre Dame. Since 1990, they are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in that spot. Their two losses have come against … Navy in 2016 and 2010.
From Navy's perspective, they are undefeated and a double-digit underdog vs. Notre Dame. Outside of the COVID-season in 2020, double-digit underdogs who are undefeated are 2-20 SU and 8-14 ATS in their 7th game or later. The two wins came from Central Florida in 2017-18 and Notre Dame in 2012.
Comeback Kids
All four of these schools are big underdogs this week. Buyer beware.
Four schools have won 4+ games outright as double-digit underdogs since 2022:
+ Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt: 5
+ BC, Northwestern: 4
Sneaky Panther
Pittsburgh is undefeated and off a bye facing Syracuse this week. Under Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers are 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS on 10+ days rest, including 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when that game is played at home.
Since 1990, undefeated teams on extended rest playing at home are winning 73% of games, including covering 54.3%. In October or later, that cover number increases to 57.1% ATS at 119-88-6 ATS.
Pittsburgh lost to Syracuse last season, only the Panthers 3rd loss vs. Syracuse in their last 19 meetings (PITT is 16-3 SU vs. 'Cuse).
Top Dogs
Underdogs in SEC conference games are 22-9 ATS so far this season — best mark of any conference.
Home favorites are 2-12 ATS this season in SEC conference games. That is the worst conference mark for home favorites through eight weeks since Conference USA in 2020 (min. 10 games) and tied for worst SEC start since 2008.
Record Pace
Boise State has beaten UNLV straight up in seven straight meetings. The Broncos average margin of victory against the Rebels is over 25 PPG during the streak.
Under Spencer Danielson, Boise State is 3-0 ATS on the road, with his only loss coming to Oregon as a 17.5-pt underdog by just three points.
Let's look at the betting Heisman favorite, Ashton Jeanty this season.
Through six games, Jeanty has 1,248 rushing yards. Back in 1988, Barry Sanders, who holds the single-season record, had 1,156 rush yards through six games.
Not Pretty
Greg Schiano has coached 52 road games while at Rutgers — the under is 31-20-1 (61%), including the under going 15-4 in Rutgers road games since the start of the 2021 season.
USC is again coming off a loss against Maryland last week after losing to Penn State the week before in an absolute thriller. Under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS off a SU loss, with the over being 8-2 in those games.
Riley started his career 45-8 SU in his first four seasons in Oklahoma. Since, he is 21-12 SU in three seasons with the Trojans.
It's a pretty wild set of circumstances for the Trojans to struggle so much outside of their home territory. According to Bet Labs' lined CFB games, USC is 20-36-2 ATS (36%) in games played outside the Pacific Standard Time Zone, going 3-9 ATS since the start of 2021. None of the seven USC head coaches in the last 20 years has a winning ATS record in this spot. In games in PST for Lincoln Riley with USC, he is 13-9 ATS according to Bet Labs lined games.
The role of the favorite hasn't been great for USC lately. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites.
This game will kick off at 11p ET. In the last 20 years, Rutgers has played three games at 10p ET or later, with this being the first since 2014. They are 3-0 ATS in those games, with margins of +3, -1 and -2 in the three contests.
Manhattan Streak
Kansas State has defeated Kansas in 15 consecutive meetings SU entering this meeting. Kansas State is 11-4 ATS in those games. Since 1990, Kansas State is 15-1 SU vs. Kansas. This isn't a rivalry.
The Wildcats have closed as a double-digit favorite vs. Kansas 17 times since 1990, they are 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS in those games. Domination.
Bevo vs. Pavia
The Longhorns off a SU loss to Georgia as the No. 1 team in the country last week. Since 2019, after losing as the No. 1 team in the country the previous week, teams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their next game. Dating back to 2000, they are 19-2 SU and 12-9 ATS.
Texas and Vanderbilt last faced each other back in 1928 — Vandy won, 13-12. Vanderbilt is coming off their first win over a ranked program in Alabama since 2019 and their first win vs. a top-5 team … ever. Since 2008, Vandy is now 1-28 SU vs.top-10 teams. Since the beginning of last season, they are 3-0 ATS vs. top-10 ranked opponents.
Steve Sarkisian has done a good job at keeping his team motivated. After facing top-10 teams, Sarkisian's teams at Texas and Washington are 10-7 SU/ATS in their next games.
In his only spot like this on the road with Texas in 2022, he beat Kansas State 55-14 away from home as a 9-point favorite.
Total Rollercoaster
So far this season, we've had 137 games with a total of 60 or more.
Those games are 87-50 to the under (63.5%) — the best start to the under for totals of 60-plus in the last 20 years.
In the last five years entering 2024, unders were above .500 in games with a total of 60 or more. They're 54.6% to the under by 1.6 points per game in almost a 3,000-game sample size.
After Volunteering
No letdown here. On College Gameday last week, Nick Saban said the 'Alabama-Tennessee" game was the biggest for his teams. Well since 2012, the Tide are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS after facing the Volunteers. Let's see if Kalen DeBoer can keep the tradition going.
Alabama has won back-to-back home games by 7 pts or less, barely surviving South Carolina and Georgia. Alabama hasn't had a SU margin of under plus-double-digits in back-to-back home games since 2009 — facing Tennessee and LSU at home within a three-week span, winning both by 2 and 9 pts.
Alabama has lost three straight ATS at home for the first time since 2017 (lost four in a row ATS).
Kelly Criteria
LSU was on the road last week against Arkansas and beat them down in a significant win.
This week, they stay on the road again to face Texas A&M. Brian Kelly in his college career is 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS on a road trip (2nd consecutive games or more on road), where his team is on normal rest or less (7 days). His last loss came back in 2006 with Central Michigan.
Freeze, You're It
In the underdog role, Auburn has been terrible. Under Hugh Freeze, they are 1-7 SU, and going further back, they are 3-23 SU as dogs since 2020.
The odd thing about this particular matchup for Auburn, is the Tigers have only closed as dogs in six total games since 1990 vs. a team with a win pct below .500 SU and they did so last season vs. Arkansas, making 2023-24 the first time they've done it in consecutive years in that span.
Big Duck
As a double-digit favorite, Dan Lanning is 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS with Oregon, covering the spread by 4 PPG. Under Lanning, Oregon has played two games as a 14+ pt favorite off extended rest, they won both by a combined score of 79-19.
Favorites of 20+ points in ranked vs. ranked matchups are 24-1 SU and 17-7-1 ATS since 2010.
Put It On The Board
If the goal for Penn State is to have some bulletin board material this is it. Penn State might play their second games this season ranked inside the top-5, with a spread of -7 or less against Wisconsin after doing so vs. USC already. Since 2000, only four other teams have done that: 2023 Florida State, 2022 Clemson, 2015 Utah and 2014 Florida State.
Historically, Wisconsin has been a tough out as a home underdog — they are 10-4 ATS since 2001, best mark in the country (min. 10 games).
Cover The Rival
The Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has gone back and forth in recent years. Michigan is 4-2 SU since 2018. Michigan State was 8-2 SU vs. Michigan prior to that from 2008-17.
What has stayed consistent? Michigan's struggle to cover vs. Spartans. Since 2008, Michigan is 3-13 ATS vs. Michigan State, that is the Wolverines least profitable opponent ATS in that span.
Night-Mares
Late start times have historically produced lower-scoring games in regard to the over/under. Games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 317-246-3 (56.3%) to the under over the last decade.
All seven seasons since 2017 have been above .500 to the under in games started at 10 p.m. ET or later and they are 14-9-2 this season.
Liberty, Liberty
Liberty's schedule is definitely a bit strange.
On Sept. 21, they faced East Carolina at home and won 35-24 at -7.5.
On Oct. 8, after 17 days off, they faced Florida International at home and won 31-24 at -15.5.
Now, on Oct. 23, after another 15-day layoff, they face Kennsaw State.
Rest has not equaled covering lately. Teams off consecutive games of 10+ days rest are 45-58 SU and 43-56-4 ATS since 2019. This will also work for Troy this week.
Follow The Herd
Marshall is now the only remaining team in the country undefeated against the spread, currently 7-0 ATS, and are off this week, slated to face Louisiana-Monroe in Week 10 after their bye. Here are the four other teams to start 7-0 ATS over the last decade:
2020 Indiana during the COVID-shortened season
2017 Georgia Tech
2017 Fresno State
2016 Colorado
Door's Open
This system looks to fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This week there are a number of matches for this system.
Off Target
We're now in ranked vs. ranked matchup season. Recently, the favorites have been good bets. Since 2020, they're over 57% ATS and 10-12 ATS this season.
In Week 9, that includes Texas A&M, Texas, Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame.
Wind Rules
Here's your weekly college football weather report.
In CFB, we're looking for a bit more drastic wind strength than in the NFL. At 13 mph or stronger, unders are cashing at over a 57% rate since 2005.
Unders in high-wind games have been above .500 in the games selected for 10 consecutive seasons entering this year.
In 2024, unders are 10-14-1 in these games.
Primetime Unders
This system simply says to bet unders in non-Saturday Power Five conference games. It's 56% last 20 years and 9-5 this season.
