Florida State and Georgia Tech kick off the 2024 college football on Saturday, which makes this a perfect time to share my favorite preseason bets for all nine conferences.
Below is my betting card with the preseason picks I've already made and logged on Action Network's award-winning app. I've also included a few other last-minute wagers I'm considering.
While this preview can help guide some last-minute winners, you can also use it to discover valuable nuggets to store away and help handicap the hundreds of college football games that lie ahead over the next five months.
Let's dive into my top college football futures and win totals for 2024.
![American Athletic Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/american-athletic-conference-logo-180-200.png)
AAC
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ecu.png)
East Carolina Pirates
Over 6 Wins (-145)
I expect East Carolina to bounce back after an abysmal 2-10 season for two primary reasons:
- Its offense should be drastically improved.
- Its schedule gets significantly easier.
Let's start with the offense, which was beyond atrocious last year. ECU averaged only 17.3 points per game and finished as one of only five teams to average below 280 yards per game, joining a list that includes three MAC dregs (Akron, Kent State and Eastern Michigan) and Iowa, which somehow still won 10 games.
Nothing worked, as evidenced by the Pirates' lowest Success Rate in the country.
The quarterback duo of Mason Garcia (now at Austin Peay) and Alex Flinn (forgoing his final year of eligibility) combined to throw 14 interceptions to just seven touchdowns in front of a horrid offensive line that couldn't pave the way for any semblance of a rushing attack.
Why East Carolina Should Improve
So, why should anybody expect improvement in 2024? Well, for starters, it can't possibly get any worse.
The offensive line should be better with five players who started last year returning to Greenville. However, last year's starting left guard, Jacob Sacra, did suffer an injury in camp, so ECU hopes Maine transfer Darius Bell can fill that role.
There's also a position swap at center and right tackle, and we'll see if Emmanuel Poku can progress at right tackle after getting thrown into the fire as a walk-on redshirt freshman last year.
It won't be a strong unit by any stretch, but it should improve from a very low bar.
More importantly, the quarterback room should take a major step forward with a pair of Power Four transfers entering the mix.
Former Miami and Missouri transfer Jake Garcia — who was recently named the starter — has plenty of talent and even started a game for the Hurricanes, while Michigan State transfer Katin Houser provides adequate depth after starting a number of games in the Big Ten last year.
The weapons are also vastly improved. Last year's lone bright spot on offense, wide receiver Chase Sowell (currently dealing with an injury), returns on the outside, joined by NC State transfer Anthony Smith and Florida State transfer slot Winston Wright, who also had two very productive seasons in Morgantown prior to heading south.
Simply put, ECU got crushed last year by the departures of longtime starting quarterback Holton Ahlers, star running back Keaton Mitchell, two 1,000-yard receivers and four starting offensive linemen.
It wasn't too surprising the team struggled so much to move the ball, especially since coach Mike Houston could never find an answer under center.
The Pirates are now moving to a new scheme under a brand new offensive staff that will likely implement a much faster-paced offense with Air Raid principles. As a result, there are plenty of new pieces that need to come together, but there's only one way for the production to go — up.
And it's not like the offense needed to do much to win a few more games in 2023. Amazingly, the Pirates lost three games when they didn't allow more than 13 points and dropped two others by one possession.
Pirates to Rely on Defense, Power Conference Transfers
The defense was rock-solid, especially considering how often it was on the field.
That stop unit was especially dominant against the run, which should be the case once again with the strength coming along the defensive line. That's especially important against the bottom half of the league in the AAC, especially when you consider ECU faces two triple-option teams in Army and Navy in addition to a few others with very dicey quarterback situations.
There are more questions in the secondary, but at least ECU can lean on one lockdown cornerback in Shavon Revel and a very manageable schedule of opposing quarterbacks.
The defense, as a whole, also has more talent even after losing a couple of key starters due to the infusion of a number of P4 transfers.
Speaking of the schedule, it's one of the 10 easiest in the country and substantially easier than last year. In fact, ECU will enjoy the largest decrease in schedule difficulty in the country.
Last year, the Pirates started with road games at Michigan and Appalachian State with Marshall sandwiched in between. This year, they will start with Norfolk State and Appalachian State at home with Old Dominion in between. That's much more appetizing, especially for a new offense that may take some time to work out the kinks.
Following their only one sure-fire loss at Liberty (although that game isn't impossible), the schedule really eases up in league play. They avoid Memphis, Tulane and USF, and they host UTSA from the top four of the AAC while facing each of the bottom five teams in the conference. Plus, SMU drops off the schedule after leaving for the ACC.
Depending on how the offense looks and some other factors, ECU could realistically be favored in its final seven games — although a handful would certainly be close to coin-flips.
I believe ECU should at least get to a bowl with a higher ceiling if the offense works out to go along with a much higher floor due to the easier schedule and a solid backup quarterback.
Other Bets: Memphis to Win AAC (+230)
Possible Adds: Tulsa Under 4.5 Wins · USF Under 7.5 Wins
![Atlantic Coast Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/acc-conference-logo-500-200.png)
ACC
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/syr.png)
Syracuse Orange
Under 7.5 Wins (-145)
There's been a lot of offseason love for the Orange after the hire of new head Fran Brown and a very manageable schedule with a hilariously easy nonconference and a league slate that doesn't include Clemson, NC State or Florida State, which Syracuse used to always see under the old ACC format.
However, I think the love has gone a bit too far in the market.
I do think Brown will end up bringing plenty of excitement to the program, primarily through an infusion of talent, which has already happened through recruiting and the portal with additions such as quarterback Kyle McCord (Ohio State), defensive end Fadil Diggs (Texas A&M), a pair of receivers from Georgia and other likely Day 1 contributors from the Power Four ranks.
New defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson, who comes in from College Station, will help on the recruiting front as well. He'll also transition the defense from a three- to four-man front, which is a bit concerning with no returning starters up front.
Diggs is obviously a stud at one edge spot, but I have questions about the depth and size of the rest of that group, which could lead to a very leaky run defense even with two very good linebackers. The secondary has plenty of pieces to work with on paper but still needs to come together on the field.
There's certainly more talent this year than last with some of the promising pieces coming back to central New York with guys like running back LeQuint Allen, tight end Oronde Gadsden II and linebacker Marlowe Wax in addition to plenty of promising freshmen who have cracked the two-deep depth chart.
However, this isn't an overnight turnaround, and there's also a lot of coaching inexperience on the sidelines with a first-time head coach and a pair of first-time coordinators.
Schedule Could Hurt Syracuse
Per my latest power rankings, Syracuse will play in a bunch of coin-flip contests.
Game plans and coaching adjustments could end up costing it a few of those, which do come in a number of tricky situational spots. Plus, that's assuming all of the transfer pieces end up fitting together in the first place.
While the skill positions are very gifted, I'm not the biggest McCord buyer and still have questions about the offensive line, but Brown hopes a pair of transfers will step in at both tackle spots.
Ultimately, I only project a tad under 6.5 wins, so I'll happily pay to make this Syracuse team prove it can make the jump to eight regular-season wins, which it has reached just once over the past 20 seasons.
Other Bets: Clemson to Make CFP (+205) & Win ACC (+375) · Pitt Under 5.5 Wins · Louisville Under 8.5 Wins
Possible Adds: NC State Over 8.5 Wins
![Big Ten Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/big-ten-conference-logo-400-200.png)
Big Ten
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mich.png)
Michigan Wolverines
To Miss College Football Playoff (-180)
Yes, I'm betting on the defending national champions missing the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
For starters, I think the staff is notably worse after Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter bounced for the Chargers. Going from Minter's brilliant scheme to Wink Martindale's all-or-nothing and more simplistic approach matters.
Extreme Turnover in Ann Arbor
The roster also experienced significant turnover after 18 players went to the NFL Combine with 13 eventually getting drafted, including seven in the top 100. A few others signed as undrafted free agents as well.
Among those players lost to the NFL are quarterback JJ McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, three pass-catchers and all five offensive linemen, which is astounding.
The O-line will naturally take a step back, which will in turn hurt a running game that will now be spearheaded by the electric but enigmatic Donovan Edwards.
Can the aerial attack pick up the slack? I highly doubt it with Alex Orji likely getting the nod at QB1. He still has a long way to go from a pure passing perspective.
The defense will still be elite even after losing six to NFL rosters (four drafted) thanks to a dominant defensive front and lockdown cornerback Will Johnson.
However, there are still questions that need to be answered in the rest of the secondary, and the defensive line isn't as deep as it was last year.
Most importantly, this group will likely take a step back schematically with Martindale serving as defensive coordinator. In addition to dripping with talent defensively last season, the Wolverines were just so well-schooled on a weekly basis and routinely confused opposing quarterbacks into oblivion.
Not only does Michigan drop from the top 10 to the bottom 20 in returning experience with a new head coach and coordinators, but it also has to face a top-15 schedule.
While the Wolverines do avoid Penn State and Oregon, they face Texas in the nonconference, go to Ohio State and host Oregon. Additionally, they face USC coming off a bye and must travel out west to take on a Washington team in a major revenge spot.
I think it's much more likely this team wins eight games than 10.
Others: Indiana Over 5.5 Wins · Wisconsin Under 6.5 Wins · Northwestern Under 4.5 Wins
Possible Adds: Illinois Under 5.5 Wins
![college football-prizepicks-week 12-donovan edwards-alan bowman-eric singleton jr-saturday nov 18](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/dedwards1.jpg)
![Big 12 Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/big-12-conference-logo-250-200.png)
Big 12
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wvu.png)
West Virginia Mountaineers
Under 7 Wins (-140)
Yes, the Mountaineers won eight regular-season games in 2023, which has driven some offseason hype in Morgantown.
However, I think the love has gone too far in the market for a team that was picked to finish last in the Big 12 heading into last season.
Regression Coming for Mountaineers?
While they certainly exceeded oddsmakers' expectations, they were pretty fortunate to reach the eight-win mark.
WVU benefited from a pair of blocked field goals in the final five minutes in a three-point victory over TCU, a final-minute goal-line stand to beat Texas Tech (which played with an extremely limited quarterback) by seven and a last-minute touchdown drive to beat hapless Baylor.
It even received extreme turnover help in a pair of two-score wins over UCF and Pitt, which were both even games from a yardage standpoint.
Yes, you could point to a ridiculous loss against Houston on a Hail Mary completion, but they needed a miraculous drive to take the lead in the final minute prior to that improbable walk-off.
The defense did improve late in the season after a schematic shift, but it must replace a number of key contributors, including cornerback Beanie Bishop (NFL), linebacker Lee Kpogba (graduated), cornerback Malachi Ruffin (graduated), outside linebacker Jared Bartlett (Cincinnati), defensive tackle Mike Lockhart (SMU) and safety Hershey McLaurin (Houston), among others.
That's driving a low returning production number.
The offensive line should still be very strong, but it did lose their two studs in center Zach Frazier — who will start for the Steelers — and right tackle Doug Nester, who signed with the Vikings.
They were the star of the show in 2023, paving the way for a dominant rushing attack that led all P5 schools with a hair under 3,000 yards while allowing only three sacks over the final nine games. I expect this group to take a slight step back even if it is still a team strength.
The rushing attack should churn out plenty of yards with dual-threat Garrett Greene and both backs returning in 2024, but I still have concerns about Greene's overall accuracy.
And if the offensive line isn't as elite, it should lead to a slightly less efficient ground game and fewer wide open play-action shots downfield.
So, while there's plenty of production returning on this side of the ball, they may not reach the same level as last season.
Tough Schedule Awaits WVU
Finally, the schedule is daunting, to say the least. Despite the departures of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12, West Virginia still has one of the 10 hardest schedules in the country. Only a home game against Albany in Week 2 is the only true "gimme."
In league play, the Mountaineers face six of the top seven and only one of the bottom four, which comes at Cincinnati. They also host Penn State and travel to Pittsburgh in nonconference play.
It's not a forgiving schedule by any means, so I'll make the Mountaineers prove they can get through this gauntlet and post at least eight wins again.
Others: Iowa State to Win Big 12 (+1000) · Colorado Under 5.5 Wins
Possible Adds: Arizona Under 7.5 Wins
![Conference USA](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-updated-conference-usa-logo.png)
Conference USA
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/kenn.png)
Kennesaw State Owls
Under 2.5 Wins (-125)
I'll admit it isn't the easiest task to determine how a team will translate in the first year of a transition from FCS to FBS. We've seen a wide range of results in recent history, but I'm willing to bet this will not go smoothly for the Owls.
I just don't think this roster is FBS-ready just one year after going 0-6 against FBS and FCS competition en route to a 3-6 record during a condensed nine-game schedule. Their only wins came against Lincoln University, Tusculum and Virginia Lynchburg.
Yes, they did redshirt a few players in anticipation of the move up to FBS, but this is still a bad roster with two new coordinators in a transition year.
No Quarterback Options for Kennesaw State
Look no further than the quarterback position. The top two on the depth chart are Davis Bryson, who started one game last year against unaffiliated independent Lincoln (California). Bryson completed 0-of-6 attempts in that game against the Oaklanders, who finished the season with an 0-12 record.
Meanwhile, the backup quarterback is another sophomore — the coach's son — who has no collegiate stats.
I think Kennesaw State should go back to its triple-option roots until it has a more complete roster. That would enable it to level the playing field a bit with a unique scheme similar to what the service academies do.
However, the staff seems set on sticking with a new modified pistol option with an increased focus on passing, which I just don't think it has the chops for.
There are certainly some winnable games on the schedule, but most of those come late in the season when Kennesaw's lack of depth could become very problematic after its first time through an FBS schedule.
Half of Kennesaw's final eight opponents will also be coming off of a bye week, which isn't ideal. That includes Sam Houston, which should be ready for the Owls after seeing them last year and surviving a scare at home.
And if they're in some close games, the very dicey kicking situation (6-of-16 on field goals last season) could end up costing them a win or two.
Others: New Mexico State Under 4.5 Wins
Possible Adds: Sam Houston State Over 4.5 Wins · Jacksonville State Under 7.5 Wins
![Mid-American Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/mac-conference-logo-225-200.png)
MAC
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ohi.png)
Ohio Bobcats
Under 6.5 Wins (-145)
I'd argue no program has been hit harder in the past couple of seasons by the changing landscape of college football than Ohio. The Bobcats made the MAC Championship back in 2022 but have seen their roster decimated in the two seasons since.
Bobcats Crushed by Departures
In this past offseason alone, they lost their stud quarterback, top two backs and over 90% of their receiving production. In addition to the graduation of leading receiver Sam Wiglusz — who previously transferred in from Ohio State — just look at where these departures ended up:
- QB Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)
- RB Sieh Bangura (Minnesota)
- WR Miles Cross (Indiana)
- WR Jacoby Jones (UCF)
- TE Tyler Foster (Oklahoma State)
- TE Will Kacmarek (Ohio State)
All six have new homes at P4 schools.
And it's not like Ohio is replacing that talent with similar-caliber players. In fact, head coach Tim Albin has instead had to reach deeper into FCS, D-II and the JUCO ranks to fill out his roster.
Maybe he strikes gold, but it more than likely will result in a significant downgrade from an offense that already struggled more than expected in 2023 with almost no explosiveness, especially after deep threat Jones went down with an injury in Week 3.
The offensive line at least has two starters back in the mix with center Parker Titsworth and right guard Christophe Atkinson, but neither is great.
The other three starters it must replace actually graded out as the team's top three offensive linemen in guard Kurt Danneker (medical retirement) and tackles Jay Amburgey (graduated) and Shedrick Rhodes (transferred to Rutgers).
I'd expect a very run-heavy offense with dual-threat quarterback and former UCF transfer Parker Navarro — who did start in the bowl victory — at the helm. That's especially true with running back looking like one of the most promising positions from a unit that lost 11 primary contributors.
The new offensive coordinator does have a background in the Run-n-Shoot, so I'm curious to see if any of those concepts are incorporated. Although, all bets are off if Navarro, who will likely take his fair share of hits, gets hurt with absolutely no depth behind him.
The picture isn't much rosier on the other side of the ball with a defense that must replace nine of its top 12 tacklers and only returns one starter along its front seven in defensive end Bradley Weaver.
Losing defensive tackle Rayyan Buell to Colorado in the spring stung, but the biggest losses will be felt at linebacker with a pair of All-MAC contributors no longer in Athens in Bryce Houston (graduation) and Keye Thompson (transferred to Pitt). That duo will be sorely missed in the second level.
In the secondary, Ohio must replace two very solid cornerbacks in Torrie Cox Jr. (transferred to Illinois) and sixth-year senior Justin Birchette in addition to safety Walter Reynolds, who led the defense in snaps in 2023.
Two other safeties who saw plenty of action last year do return, but neither has very promising metrics.
This roster is in rough shape after all of the recent turnover.
Not only does Ohio rank in the bottom 10 in returning production on both sides of the ball, but it also had to replace all of that talent drain (including all six All-MAC selections) with a plethora of players from lower levels or incoming freshmen.
That also hurts the depth, so any cluster injuries could prove fatal, and the special teams units could suffer immensely.
Oh, and they will have to deal with two new coordinators — both internal hires — taking over in the spring. I believe defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky, who did a very admirable job with this group last season, will be sorely missed after heading off to Memphis in the offseason.
Easy Schedule Doesn't Matter
The one saving grace for Ohio in this rebuilding year is having one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country.
In nonconference play, it has two likely losses on the road at Syracuse and at Kentucky but does have a free win on paper against Morgan State and hosts a rebuilding South Alabama squad in a potential swing game for its bowl hopes.
It's the conference slate where things be easy. While the Bobs do have to face the top two teams in the league on the road in Toledo and Miami (OH), they likely weren't winning those games anyway. Plus, not only do they avoid Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, but they also face each of the projected six bottom teams in the MAC.
The home slate is especially easy with games against Morgan State, South Alabama, Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. It doesn't get much easier than that.
Despite the painless schedule, I still only project the Bobcats to win right around 5.5 games, so I'll happily bet under 6.5 wins at around -140.
I would still play under 6 at plus-money, but I generally tend to prefer to pay (when it makes sense mathematically) for that extra half-win around six.
With all of the turnover on the staff and roster and a significant decline in talent across the board, I'll pay to make the Bobs prove they can win seven games in 2024.
Others: See MAC Manifesto (Out Early Next Week)
![Mountain West Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/mountain-west-conference-logo-200.png)
Mountain West
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/boise.png)
Boise State Broncos
To Win Mountain West (-120)
This one was pretty straightforward, as I believe Boise State is head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the Mountain West.
The Broncos rallied under interim and now full-time head coach Spencer Danielson last season, which is a great sign for 2024. I also loved that the Broncos brought back Dirk Koetter to run the offense.
I was super intrigued about the possibility of former five-star USC transfer Malachi Nelson at quarterback, but he lost the competition to sophomore Maddux Madsen.
That potentially lowers the ceiling on a national level, but it shouldn't really impact the chances of winning the conference for a super-experienced squad that ranks in the top 25 nationally in returning production.
Ashton Jeanty Effect
The headliner is Ashton Jeanty, who's one of the best running backs (in a deep room) in all of college football for my money. He should have a monster season on the ground behind a very experienced offensive line (with only one question to answer at right tackle) and in the pass-catching department.
The wide receiver room also received an infusion of talent from the portal and will see the return of Latrell Caples, who I love, after he missed all of last season due to injury.
On the other side of the ball, the defense has as much experience as any unit in the country with essentially everybody coming back. Ball State transfer Tavion Woodard could also help bolster the pass rush.
Lastly, don't forget about Boise State's elite special teams. The Broncos boast one of the best kicker/punter duos in the entire country in Jonah Dalmas and James Ferguson-Reynolds. I'm not sure Danielson will risk using Jeanty as a return man, but look out if he does.
From a scheduling perspective, Boise avoids both Fresno State and Air Force in league play. While it has a tough nonconference slate with three former Pac-12 schools (including a road game at Oregon) and a potentially tricky road opener at Georgia Southern, that has no impact on this bet.
I believe the Broncos win the conference in what will be a down year for the rest of the Mountain West.
Others: N/A
Possible Adds: Hawaii Over 5.5 Wins
![college football-odds-futures-picks-boise state broncos-national championship-2024](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/06/jeantyhammer.png)
![Southeastern Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/SEC-conference-logo-200.png)
SEC
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/txam.png)
Texas A&M Aggies
To Make College Football Playoff (+245)
Last year, including new member Texas, the SEC would've had five teams in the College Football Playoff. That's not out of the question again this season, although three or four is certainly much more likely.
Georgia is a safe bet to make the dance, as is Texas, although the Longhorns may have a tougher path than some are assuming.
College Football Playoff Race is Wide Open
That leaves a few open spots for the likes of Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Amazingly, the SEC has nine teams ranked in the preseason top 20.
Well, I'm lower than the market on both Missouri and Ole Miss. I also have concerns about Tennessee and LSU, while the Oklahoma schedule is just vicious.
That naturally leaves me to target Texas A&M — a team I'm higher on than most coming into the season in large part due to the hire of head coach Mike Elko, who should serve as a monumental upgrade over Jimbo Fisher.
The defense shouldn't see much of a drop-off under the tutelage of Elko, who once led this same unit to prominence in College Station.
Meanwhile, the offense should be much more modern and productive under new coordinator Collin Klein, especially if the Aggies can finally get some health luck at quarterback.
The offensive line remains a concern, but I like the coach Elko brought in to put that group together. The defensive line lost plenty of talent, but there are still a number of players with Sunday potential up front.
This should be a much more serious team under Elko, who also brought in one of the best transfer classes in the country. There's talent for days across this roster, and I think they're finally in a position from a leadership perspective to make that talent work.
If the transfers hit and the special teams don't fall off a cliff, this team has extreme upside.
Bet Aggies in Big Games?
I also really like the Aggies in Week 1 at home against Notre Dame, which would serve as a marquee win for their resume against a fellow playoff contender.
While the Aggies do only have three home SEC games, they come against their toughest competition in Missouri, LSU and Texas. They not only avoid Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss, but they also have a very manageable road schedule of Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Auburn in addition to a neutral-site bout with Arkansas.
There's some uncertainty with a lot of new pieces on the roster and staff, which is why I prefer the upside bet of making the College Football Playoff as opposed to the win total.
Don't underestimate the pull of the SEC when it comes to getting teams into the first expanded playoff. Hopefully, it just means more to the committee!
Others: South Carolina Over 5.5 Wins
Possible Adds: LSU Under 9 Wins
![Sun Belt Conference](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/sun-belt-conference-logo-350-200.png)
Sun Belt
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/odu.png)
Old Dominion Monarchs
Under 4.5 Wins (-140)
Old Dominion's Good Fortune in 2023
Let's take a trip down memory lane to last year when the Monarchs won six games to reach bowl eligibility. Everything broke their way. Here are their wins:
- Louisiana by seven after the Ragin' Cajuns were stopped inside the 10-yard-line in the final seconds (outgained by 62)
- Texas A&M-Commerce by one thanks to a failed two-point conversion attempt
- Southern Miss by four in large part due to another goal-line stand in the final minutes
- Appalachian State by seven (trailed by one in the final minute) after a touchdown in the final minute following a fourth-and-10 conversion
- Georgia Southern by three on a field goal in the final seconds
- Georgia State by one after trailing by 10 late in the fourth quarter. It took a blocked field goal, safety and a fourth-and-goal touchdown on the final play of the game to complete that improbable comeback.
All six victories came by one possession due to extreme luck in the final minute of each win.
In fairness, the Monarchs did also lose four one-possession contests, but they trailed by double-digits in the second half against James Madison and Marshall.
And while they did get a bit unlucky in blowing leads against Coastal Carolina and Wake Forest, they were outgained by over 100 yards in both.
Bottom line, close-game regression certainly looms for a Ricky Rahne group that will have to replace an abundance of production due to a great migration in the portal with many contributors heading off to P4 programs.
They simply didn't replace that lost production with a similar level of talent.
Offensively, Grant Wilson does return at quarterback, but he lost his top back to Cal and top receiver to Arizona with wideout Javon Harvey also leaving for Duke.
Additionally, the offensive line — which allowed the most sacks in the nation even with good health — is still a mess, especially after losing starting tackle Chris Adams to Memphis in the spring. Adams was really the only reliable pass protector from last year's group.
The picture is even bleaker on the defensive side of the ball, where ODU returns only three starters.
One of those is stud linebacker Jason Henderson, who is a tackling machine, but he's recovering from offseason knee surgery. Even if Henderson is back at 100%, he will have to make do with an inferior surrounding cast. Here are the starters who will no longer be around:
- Linebacker Wayne Matthews III (Michigan State)
- Slot cornerback Tahj Ra-El (Memphis)
- Strong safety Shawn Asbury II (Indiana)
- Free safety Terry Jones (Indiana)
- Cornerback LaMareon "Scud" James (TCU)
- Cornerback Nolan Johnson (graduated)
The defensive line returns a few contributors, but it was one of the worst units in the country when it came to getting to opposing quarterbacks in 2023.
A mass exodus of production on the back end (as evidenced by the schools they ended up at), combined with no semblance of a pass rush, could spell disaster on this side of the ball.
Rough Sun Belt Schedule Hurts Monarchs
Lastly, the schedule is extremely arduous. To start the season, the Monarchs will play four nonconference games against South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green and East Carolina, which should be improved.
There's a decent chance they start 0-4 before beginning Sun Belt play with two straight road games against Georgia State and Coastal Carolina.
Not only will those contests mark their second and third straight games away from home, but both opponents will also be coming off of a bye. That's a brutal first six with Texas State, Appalachian State, James Madison, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern still to go.
I think it's going to be a long year in Norfolk even if all of the close-game regression doesn't come crashing down all at once.
Others: James Madison to Win Sun Belt (+800) · Troy Under 6.5 Wins
Possible Adds: Arkansas State to Win Sun Belt (+1800)