Conference USA wanted the attention of the college football world, so it moved its October games to weekdays a season ago. The success of the MAC playing Tuesday and Wednesday games in November proved to be the gateway for October midweek games in CUSA.
With the change in programming, viewing audiences were exposed to some of the teams that populate the bottom 10 of our Action Network Power Ratings.
Liberty dominated the new-look conference, sweeping its Conference USA schedule, with only New Mexico State and Sam Houston staying within a possession. However, the Flames stumbled in the postseason, losing to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl by a score of 45-6.
Changes are coming to Conference USA 2024, though. Kennesaw State will move up from FCS but will be ineligible to win the conference this season.
Consumers will once again enjoy another round of October midweek games as the conference prepares to move to 12 teams next season with the additions of Missouri State and Delaware.
Liberty is expected to dominate the conference once again, challenging to take the Group of Five's automatic bid in the College Football Playoff.
The biggest question is who will join the Flames in the Conference USA Championship game. First, let's take a look at Action Network's conference win totals heading into 2024.
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The Owls make the jump from FCS in 2024. They're following a similar path as Sam Houston a season ago, redshirting nearly every quality player on the team in 2023 to prepare for the new competition.
Kennesaw State is now working to integrate long-term starters with a bevy of JUCOs in preparation for conference play, but a schematic change could be problematic.
Head coach Brian Bohannon is the only person to ever coach the Owls since they opened play in 2015, but the offense elected to abandon the triple option for more of a traditional attack while the roster was in transition a season ago.
The pro-style pistol will be run by Davis Bryson, who completed just 2-of-11 passing attempts last season. The new offense will be similar to conference peers New Mexico State and Jacksonville State, with expectations of a heavy ground attack that utilizes the quarterback.
Michael Benefield will be the go-to option in the backfield as a fifth-year senior, but he averages just 2.8 yards after contact.
Kennesaw State running back Michael Benefield introducing himself to CUSA opposition one year early 🔥
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) November 4, 2023
The strength of the defense comes on the defensive line for coordinator Greg Harris.
Although the top two tacklers are gone from this unit, linebacker Garland Benyard was a leader on the defense in 2022 with 35 tackles and 13 pressures.
Kennesaw State will struggle with passing attacks in the conference, lining up two freshmen at the cornerback and safety positions.
The conference schedule is unkind, as the Owls host two teams with hopes of winning the conference in Jacksonville State and Liberty.
The only game projecting as a coin-flip and possible victory comes against UT Martin, as Kennesaw State will be coming off a bye week for that Sept. 28 matchup.
After that, short underdog spots exist at home against Florida International and on the road at UTEP and Louisiana Tech.
Considering FIU has the roster to get deep into an opponent's secondary, the ceiling for the Owls in their first season is three wins with two that must come in El Paso and Shreveport.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)
Mike MacIntyre will enter his third season at Florida International after accumulating a pair of 4-8 records in 2022 and 2023. The coach loves upsets, as six of his eight wins have come as an underdog.
For the first time during the head coach's tenure, there's continuity and a bit of explosiveness on the offense side of the ball.
Quarterback Keyone Jenkins returns after an 11-touchdown and 11-interception season. Those numbers may not tell the full story, as he recorded 17 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays as a freshman in 2023.
With skill-position playmakers returning in running back Shomari Lawrence and wide receiver Dean Patterson, the Panthers are once again on track for highlight-reel scores and turnovers.
Former Miami Central QB Keyone Jenkins is ON FIRE in just his third-career start.
Jenkins is 11/14 for 240 yards and two TDs + 17 rushing yards and an additional TD on the ground at halftime.
— Luke Chaney (@lukechaney247) September 16, 2023
The defense is going to struggle once again in 2024 and will likely have one of the worst units at defensive line and secondary in all of Conference USA.
Reggie Peterson returns as the leading tackler at linebacker, bringing back 65 tackles and nine pressures. Peterson was one of the highest-graded players in terms of tackling last season but displayed severe problems in coverage.
The defensive line lacks experience in the two deep, but a collection of juniors and seniors should keep the unit fresh as it looks to create chaos in opposing backfields.
Florida International must play Liberty and Jacksonville State on the road, but it does miss Western Kentucky in conference play.
Jenkins has the ability to upset any team in the conference with his offensive weapons but must improve on 15 fumbles from a season ago.
The projected win total lands at 4.7, giving investors a look at the over.
The Panthers will be short favorites over Monmouth and Louisiana Tech, while the rest of the schedule features plenty of coin-flips. Central Michigan, Sam Houston, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee represent the short-spread games in Miami, while UTEP and Kennesaw State are the winnable games on the road.
The Owls, Lobos and Miners are all expected to struggle in the back seven, an area Jenkins will attack often.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+120)
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Scotty Walden is making all the right moves in El Paso to get Miner Nation back on track.
The new UTEP head coach comes from FCS Austin Peay, where the Governors lost in the opening round of the playoffs. Before a four-year stint with Austin Peay, Walden gained plenty of experience at Southern Miss, acting as interim head coach at the end of his tenure.
In case you missed it, Walden is bringing a powder keg of energy to the UTEP program.
Here's the full video of UTEP football coach Scotty Walden (@CoachSWUTEP) running around the Haskins Center in full body paint tonight.
Highlights:
The media table jump
Going to the student section
Distracting free throw shootersScotty DOES know how to fire up a crowd. pic.twitter.com/Oh3EXY7v4h
— Colin Deaver (@ColinDeaverTV) February 23, 2024
Both the offense and defense will have a heavy influence from the transfer portal, with a direct pipeline from the Austin Peay roster. Running back Jevon Jackson, wide receivers Kam Thomas and Trey Goodman and a pair of offensive linemen are the biggest acquisitions from Clarksville, Tennessee.
Cade McConnell will likely start under center after 195 dropbacks last year. Despite the experience, the junior posted a high turnover-worthy play rate of 7.8%. Skyler Locklear is a dual-threat option from Austin Peay who will compete for duties as well.
The strength of the offense will come from wide receivers Goodman and Thomas, who both averaged more than 2.1 yards per route run.
The Austin Peay defense allowed more than 24 points per game, and UTEP's linebacker unit is expected to be the worst in the conference.
Defensive coordinator J.J. Clark slides in from Walden’s previous staff, looking to prevent chunk plays on the ground. UTEP finished bottom-20 in both defensive rush efficiency and allowing explosives.
The Miners will have coin-flip games against Kennesaw State and Southern Utah and will be short underdogs against Sam Houston, Florida International, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee.
Walden must win five of the six winnable games to eclipse the win total in a Year 0 situation.
Pick: Under 4 (-110)
The writing is on the wall for Sonny Cumbie after a pair of 3-9 seasons since taking the position in 2022.
A new director of athletics came to Ruston in February, signifying that a change could come at Louisiana Tech this season if the program doesn't turn around.
Cumbie did make a change on the coaching staff, bringing in Jeremiah Johnson from Northern Iowa to be the new defensive coordinator.
Johnson ran a mixture of 4-3 and 3-3-5 depending on down and distance. The Panthers utilized a moderate 20% blitz rate and quarters coverage, providing a new template for Louisiana Tech.
The good news for the Bulldogs is the return of Cedric Woods and Michael Richard, potentially the best safety combination in Conference USA.
46 days away from gameday! No player wears #46 for LA Tech but check out this Cedric Woods INT to start off the game against WKU last season #barklouderpic.twitter.com/JvTE8ngVNN
— Sidelines – Louisiana Tech🐶 (@SSN_LA_TECH) July 16, 2024
Quarterback Jack Turner returns for his junior season after posting a subpar season with five touchdowns and five interceptions. In four starts, the 6-foot-5 signal-caller posted nearly double the number of turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, but didn't help that the Bulldogs' pass-catchers dropped 11 of his 149 passing attempts.
The offensive line has two quality guards at the conference level, but the tackle positions will be a complete mystery. Neither Brett Canis nor Kenneth Bannister have played since 2022, logging a combined nine appearances two seasons ago.
The great news for Louisiana Tech comes in the scheduling, as the Bulldogs will be the only team to dodge Liberty in conference play. Cumbie’s squad will be favored over Nicholls in the opener and at home against UTEP later in October.
However, finding another three wins on this schedule is problematic.
Besides the regular-season finale against Kennesaw State, the Bulldogs don't project within a touchdown of any other team in Conference USA.
The bigger question is whether or not Cumbie will be around to coach the team after a bye week in early October.
Pick: Under 5 (-115)
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Ferris Bueller reminded all of us that life moves pretty fast. That especially rings true for New Mexico State football.
The Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia era is over after drawing two consecutive bowls and a 10-win season last year. The offense had a bruising ground game that was good enough to enter Jordan-Hare Stadium and upset Auburn as a 26-point underdog.
The Aggies will now say goodbye to their former coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback.
Tony Sanchez takes over duties after a failed five-year stint with UNLV. The former Bishop Gorman High School coach posted a 20-40 record, failing to get the Rebels to the next level.
The good news for new offensive coordinator Tyler Wright is the same personnel returns on the offensive line after clearing plenty of holes for the rushing attack last season.
Running back Monte Watkins will be back as well after generating 3.9 yards after contact a season ago.
Monte Watkins TO THE HOUSE pic.twitter.com/p5SCAuNzB9
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) August 27, 2023
Joe Morris takes over duties as defensive coordinator, the same role he held at Sam Houston a season ago. The coordinator prefers a nickel defense, using multiple defensive line fronts with an above-average blitz rate.
This is one of the lowest returning experience rates, per TARP, losing all seven of its top tacklers from 2023.
Linebacker Sone Aupiu represents the known quantity in the Havoc department, but the defense is a complete rebuild.
New Mexico State does have a number of spots as a favorite, including games against Southeast Missouri, New Mexico, Louisiana Tech and UTEP.
Another batch of games should be a coin-flip, as the Lobos will be coming off a bye week to face Florida International while owning a huge trench advantage against Middle Tennessee State.
Pick: Over 4 (+105)
Derek Mason is set to lead a program once again after a previous seven-year stint as Vanderbilt's head coach.
The defensive-minded coach bounced from defensive coordinator positions at Auburn and Oklahoma State before taking the 2023 season off.
The Blue Raiders will be light on experience in 2024, with the biggest concerns coming in both trenches for offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder and defensive coordinator Brian Stewart.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato brings 23 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions from a season ago after cutting his turnover-worthy play rate from 10.3% to 3.1%.
First-team All-Conference USA target Holden Willis returns, shifting from slot to tight end after a huge campaign that included nearly 65 targets at 1.9 yards per route run.
The offensive line is expected to be among the worst in Conference USA, with the biggest production coming from guard Mateo Guevara. He's expected to switch positions to center with one of the highest pass-blocking grades on the team but also one of the worst run-blocking grades.
The defense will also be rebuilding in the trench, as every projected starter brings limited or no experience from the 2023 season.
Stewart comes in with a lengthy resume from the XFL and was last seen serving as defensive coordinator for the Houston Roughnecks. Now, he's expected to run a 4-2-5 in Murfreesboro.
The strength will be in the linebacker unit led by Parker Hughes and Devyn Curtis, with safety Brendon Harris playing anchor in the secondary.
From a conference perspective, the Blue Raiders miss Sam Houston in conference play. Middle Tennessee will be a touchdown-plus underdog to Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, Duke, Memphis, Jacksonville State and Liberty.
With six other games on the schedule, a coin-flip against Florida International is a must-win for a shot at bowl season.
The game against New Mexico State could be the game that seals Mason’s fate in his first season. There's a large discrepancy in the trench coming on Nov. 23.
Pick: Under 5 (-110)
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The transition from a 2021 FCS national title to being a member of an FBS conference in 2023 did not go smoothly for Sam Houston last year.
Loaded with injuries and inefficient play on offense, the Bearkats didn't secure a victory until their ninth game of the season against Kennesaw State.
Head coach K.C. Keeler won three of the final four games in Conference USA play, nearly upsetting Western Kentucky before Thanksgiving. The money in the market loved Sam Houston, as the Bearkats had no wins but closed as a favorite over Florida International and UTEP.
Coordinator Brad Cornelsen leads the offense after an offseason search for a quarterback, bringing in JUCO national champion Hunter Watson. There's depth at the position with holdover Grant Gunnell and Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer.
Gunnell had limitations in running the offense a season ago, while Bauer could bring stability after posting a 12:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Chippewas.
Noah Smith returns in the slot after leading the team in targets with 2.1 yards per route run.
With an offensive line that's expected to rank in the middle of Conference USA and talent at the skill positions, the Bearkats will have a vertical offense with Ife Adeyi and Qua'Vez Humphreys on the outside.
The defense returns just below the FBS average of 63%, with the biggest talent coming on the defensive line. Linebacker Kavian Gaither returns as the leader in tackling and tackles for loss.
It should be noted that the new defense coordinator is the youngest in FBS, as Skyler Cassity graduated from Auburn in 2016. Cassity held defensive staff positions at Abilene Christian and Missouri State before joining the Bearkats.
Expect the scheme for Sam Houston to include three-man fronts with heavy nickel packages in passing downs and a low blitz rate.
The offense will be much improved compared to the 2023 version, as a trio of quarterback contenders will be surrounded by weapons on the outside.
The offensive line replaces only the right tackle position, while the defense brings back key names in the Havoc department.
The toughest teams on the conference schedule come to Huntsville in New Mexico State, Western Kentucky and Liberty. That could very well give the Kats the easiest road schedule in the conference with UTEP, Florida International and Kennesaw State.
Sam Houston's win total projection falls at 5.3, indicating an overachieving season could see the Bearkats reach a bowl game.
The bigger question is who will join Liberty in the conference championship game.
Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky are both expected to take a step back, considering the Gamecocks should decline defensively and the Hilltoppers are undergoing a new offensive scheme.
In order to place a conference future on any team not named Liberty, the number must be so high that the hedge in the conference championship game is a plus-money handwashing wager.
Sam Houston is back on the rise and fits the bill of an improved offense. Its easy road schedule should give it a chance to play in the conference championship game.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+100) · Sam Houston to Win Conference USA (+2500)
Jacksonville State's first year as an FBS member competing in Conference USA was a resounding success.
Head coach Rich Rodriguez doubled the oddsmakers' win total with a season-concluding overtime victory over Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl.
That FBS debut was no surprise to a roster chock-full of experience at the skill positions. Now, the Gamecocks must rebound after losing the biggest pieces from a year ago.
Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Rod Smith will return just half of the experience from 2023, losing the top two names at running back and wide receiver.
Quarterback Zion Turner transfers in from UConn but hasn't played any meaningful snaps since 2022. Fellow quarterback Logan Smothers enters his second season on the Gamecocks' roster, starting four games last season with a high 6.5% turnover-worthy play rate.
This is the fastest offense in college football, leading the country in tempo at 20.9 seconds per play.
Notably, running back Anwar Lewis returns after creating 29 missed tackles on just 89 rushing attempts.
Anwar Lewis runs like he was shot out of a cannon. Jacksonville State looking to head to overtime@JaxStateFB | #HardEdgepic.twitter.com/Xi5dTnQjc6
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 18, 2023
The defense also takes a hit in returning experience, bringing back just 45% of tackles, pressures and pass breakups. Fred Perry returns the most tackles on the team from the safety spot even with a high missed tackle rate of 14.1%.
With a switch to a strict 3-3-5 defense, the defensive line will be undersized.
New coordinator Luke Olson was an analyst at TCU last season, following Joe Gillespie from Tulsa's staff. Olson will have a tough task replicating a Jacksonville State defense that ranked top-25 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
Despite the losses on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville State will be a touchdown-plus favorite against six teams on the schedule. The win total will be decided in games as a short favorite against Coastal Carolina, Sam Houston and Southern Miss.
The Gamecocks will need to sweep their winnable games to get over the market win total — a tough task for Rodriguez with new faces at the skill positions on offense.
Pick: Under 8 (-125)
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After a pair of nine-win seasons, Western Kentucky may be on the downslope in Conference USA.
The Hilltoppers were favored to win the conference last season, only to miss the championship game. After earning a trip to the Famous Toastery Bowl, WKU trailed Old Dominion by 28 before completing a wild comeback to win, 38-35, in overtime.
Head coach Tyson Helton saw a severe drop in the offense's efficiency while continuing to grade near the bottom of FBS in defensive categories.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp had a breakout performance in the bowl game, connecting on 40 of his 52 passing attempts for 383 yards and five touchdowns against Old Dominion. Despite having just four dropbacks in 2022, he'll bring the bowl game steam to fall camp.
Transfer quarterback TJ Finley comes to Bowling Green for a fifth season after receiving significant time for LSU, Auburn and Texas State.
Despite a lower average depth of target with the Bobcats last season, Finley racked up over 3,400 yards with a 24:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio while lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to 2.7%.
Wideout Dalvin Smith leads all returning targets with 50 catches last season, with Easton Messer returning to the slot in the pro-style Air Raid hybrid attack.
The quarterback and wide receiver rooms are filled with depth, while the offensive line returns nearly 100 starts thanks to blindside tackle transfer Stacy Wilkins and his 646 snaps from Louisiana Monroe.
The defense projects to have more experience than the offense, but it needs to improve against the rush. Western Kentucky ranked outside the top 120 in Defensive Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Defensive coordinator Tyson Summers failed to get his unit to cause chaos, as the Tops ranked near dead last in Havoc. The good news comes in the secondary with the return of nickel Upton Stout.
Western Kentucky has failed to win eight games just once since 2019 and now has one of the lighter home schedules in Conference USA. The Hilltoppers will be a touchdown favorite in games against Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.
Helton's team will also be a short favorite against Toledo, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State.
Alabama and Liberty will be tough games, giving Western Kentucky a ceiling of 10 wins. Look for the Tops to take advantage of their schedule.
Pick: Over 7 (-150)
For a second consecutive season, Liberty is the class of Conference USA.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell had no issues moving from Coastal Carolina after winning 13 games and making a Sun Belt Championship appearance in 2022.
The Flames finished top-10 in numerous offensive categories last season, including rush efficiency and pass explosives.
Only one team finished within a possession of Liberty during its perfect regular season. Now, the Flames draw the easiest schedule in all of FBS football.
Quarterback Kaidon Salter returns after netting 44 all-purpose touchdowns with just six interceptions in 2023. Salter was lethal on the ground, creating an average of three yards after contact while producing 57 missed tackles.
The rushing attack will continue to be one of the more potent units in the Group of Five with the return of Quinton Cooley at running back. The senior posted an explosive play on 21 of his 220 rushing attempts.
Terrific example of inline blocking by Liberty TE (#15) Bentley Hanshaw on both of these runs from Quinton Cooley 😤 pic.twitter.com/lERKIz5rhd
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 11, 2023
The defense does lose the two top tacklers from a season ago, but nose tackle Bryce Dixon returns 13 pressures and 16 stops.
Linebacker CJ Bazile Jr. wreaked havoc on the conference with 19 quarterback hurries last season and returns alongside safety Brylan Green’s six pass breakups and five interceptions.
The only weakness on the team will be the departures of cornerbacks Preston Hodge and Kobe Singleton, who combined for 25 passes defended a season ago.
Liberty has enough talent to replicate its success from 2023, projecting as a double-digit favorite in 11 games. However, oddsmakers are tuned into the Flames love, completely outpricing the number in the market.
With a projected 50% chance to win the conference, anything worse than -110 to win Conference USA has no value.
Interestingly enough, the Appalachian State game may serve as a play-in to make the College Football Playoff. The Mountaineers are also conference favorites out of the Sun Belt, giving us a half-dozen teams with a realistic shot of making the 12-team field.
Look to put a half-unit on both Appalachian State and Liberty to make the playoff. Those tickets should be prime contenders when the committee makes its announcement in December.
Pick: Liberty to Make College Football Playoff (+440)
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Conference USA Futures & Best Bets
- Kennesaw State: Under 2.5 (-110)
- FIU: Over 4.5 (+120)
- UTEP: Under 4 (-110)
- Louisiana Tech: Under 5 (-115)
- New Mexico State: Over 4 (+105)
- Middle Tennessee: Under 5 (-110)
- Sam Houston: Over 4.5 (+100) · To Win Conference USA (+2500)
- Jacksonville State: Under 8 (-125)
- Western Kentucky: Over 7 (-150)
- Liberty: To Make College Football Playoff (+440)
