2024 Mountain West Preview, Odds, Picks | Best Bets & Futures for Boise State, Fresno State & More
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and UNLV wide receiver Ricky White.
The beauty of Group of Five college football shines through when it comes to the geographical footprint and classic rivalries.
The Mountain West Conference was created in 1998. Seven of the eight members migrated from the WAC, and only two charter members have left the conference since: BYU and Utah.
Though conference realignment has hit the sport of college football hard, the Mountain West has stood firm in geography as the only conference without a member in the central or eastern time zones.
The conference stands at 12 teams this season, but there's a kink in the Mountain West that will have a direct impact on producing a College Football Playoff contender this season.
The death of the Pac-12 has created the Pac-2 membership between Washington State and Oregon State. While the Cougars and Beavers are not joining a new conference, every member of the Mountain West will play a game against one of the Pac-2 teams.
More importantly, the conference schedule has been shaved from eight to seven games. Strength of schedule in the Mountain West has never been more important, especially after three teams needed a BCS computer ranking to determine the conference championship game a season ago.
The stakes couldn't be any higher for the conference, as the new College Football Playoff format takes the highest-ranked Group of Five school and gives it a seat at the table to compete for a national title.
The biggest question comes from the new Pac-2: Will Oregon State or Washington State prevent the current members of the Mountain West from reaching the playoff?
Although Oregon State and Washington State won't collect conference wins and losses, both are integral pieces of the conference handicap and will be previewed below. But before we dive into each team, let's take a quick look at the full-season and conference win total projections for the Mountain West.
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The Lobos are full of positive news after spending the better half of the last seven years in the cellar of the Mountain West.
New head coach Bronco Mendenhall returns to college football in Albuquerque after serving as defensive coordinator for the Lobos under Rocky Long from 1998-2002. Mendenhall would move on to long head-coaching stints at BYU and Virginia, collecting a number of accolades from 2006 Mountain West Coach of the Year to an ACC Coastal Division title.
Long-term coordinators Jason Beck and Nick Howell also join the effort on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, respectively.
Mendenhall steps into a dire situation from a returning experience perspective on the offensive side of the ball. Only 34% of the Lobos' passing, rushing, receiving and offensive line snaps return.
Quarterback Devon Dampier is expected to be the full-time starter after making a single start against Boise State in 2023. Dampier threw six touchdowns on the season but had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
With 320 rushing yards on designed calls, Dampier will likely be featured in Beck's heavy outside zone offense.
While the running back room has experience from the portal, the offensive line is a complete roster wipe with portal names from Grambling State, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Texas A&M Commerce.
A former defensive back at Oregon State in the mid-1980s, Mendenhall’s strongest unit on the New Mexico defense will be the secondary.
The defense will run a 3-3-5 nickel package that will be led by nickelback Tavian Combs, who has allowed just six touchdowns in 76 career targets from opposing quarterbacks. Combs' highest-graded attributes come as a pass-rusher, joining linebacker Dimitri Johnson as the best chance to improve a poor Havoc ranking.
Mendenhall walks into a program that might need multiple Year 0s to compete in the Mountain West, but the stability should provide a few upset games this season.
An opening win total of 1.5 quickly steamed to 2.5 over the summer due to a combination of the new coaching staff and a projected touchdown-plus favorite spot in the opener against Montana State.
There are several spots on the schedule that can provide victory as a short underdog, including a trip to Las Cruces against New Mexico State, a bye week before hosting Air Force, a Utah State team in disarray and a trip to San Diego State to face a team also in rebuild mode.
With a projected win total of 2.4, the only direction for the Lobos is up.
Pick: Over 2 (-120)
With new faces on the coaching staff, the Wolf Pack are almost a new school in the Mountain West.
Jeff Choate comes to Reno with a long resume in college football after recently serving on Texas' defensive staff and holding the head-coaching position at Montana State.
In four years in Bozeman, Choate took the Bobcats from a four-win team to the FCS semifinals in 2019. Nevada will see those Monatana State ties on the defensive side with coordinator Kane Ioane, who's expected to implement 2-4-5 and 2-5-4 personnel with minimal blitz.
The defense does return 71%, per TARP, bringing back more than 75% of pass breakups and pressures.
Edge Henry Ikahihifo did not play last season after transferring from Cal, creating 14 pressures in just 82 snaps as a freshman in 2022. Thomas Witte graded out well in run defense at the edge position a season ago, prompting a move to the interior.
The secondary will be an issue against pass-heavy teams, as a fresh set of players either sat out in 2022 or transferred from the JUCO ranks. Texas transfer Kitan Crawford is expected to play safety but logged just over 500 snaps in four seasons with the Longhorns.
New offensive coordinator Matt Lubick has had plenty of stops in the past decade. The Western Montana alum has never stayed in a position for too long after serving as coordinator at Oregon, Ole Miss, Baylor and Washington.
Lubick had been on the Kansas staff since 2022 as an analyst, but it remains to be seen if Nevada will be a heavy rush offense.
Both quarterback and running back have plenty of names and experience.
Brendon Lewis and AJ Bianco played under center last year and will now be challenged by Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy.
The running back stable, meanwhile, was all Sean Dollars in 2023. He now returns with Boston College transfer Pat Garwo III. Neither option has a history of elusiveness and breakaway speed, as both averaged less than 2.9 yards after contact.
As for the wide receiver room, Nevada brings back a grand total of zero targets. At tight end, Cameron Zeidler was targeted 12 times, forcing the Wolf Pack to hit the portal for new faces from Florida and West Virginia.
The schedule brings five nonconference affairs and a matchup against Oregon State on Oct. 12. What's more amazing is that the Wolf Pack's win total sits at 2.5 despite the fact they play 13 games.
The best chances for a win come in three different home games against Georgia Southern, Colorado State and Air Force off a bye week. Nevada projects as an underdog of a touchdown or less in each of those games, but the handicap depends on whether or not any of them can defend the run.
Colorado State will have one of the worst defensive lines, while Georgia Southern also projects as one of the worst defensive line units in the Sun Belt. Air Force, however, has plenty of talent on the defensive interior.
Nevada’s offensive rushing attack is live against only one Mountain West defense: Colorado State on Nov. 2.
The problem for the Wolf Pack in this game is a Rams passing attack that will dominate the Nevada secondary. So, the best bet for the Pack comes on a conference win total under.
Pick: Conference Win Total Under 1.5 (-130)
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Sean Lewis is happy to be at his newest destination as the head coach of San Diego State. The former Kent State head coach invented the “Flash Fast” offense that moved at warp speed with intentions of stretching the field to create explosive plays.
Lewis left the MAC contender after the 2022 season to be the offensive coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado. The uptempo offense was not a great fit in Boulder, leading to a demotion and the eventual hiring of Pat Shurmur as coordinator.
Lewis jumped at the chance to take the San Diego State head-coaching position despite the program being in a complete rebuild.
As San Diego’s newest resident, Lewis said at the Mountain West media conference that he's enjoying the freshest Mexican food in the nation.
San Diego State Aztecs head football coach, Sean Lewis talks second career head coaching job, 2024-2025 season.
🎥 🎤 @justinbaptiz#SDSUFB#AztecFAST🍢 #BeTheA1pha🐺 #SeanLewis#MWFB#ATThePEAK#NCAAFB#GuavaPresspic.twitter.com/sbrW08xqSI
— GuavaPressMedia (@GuavaPressMedia) July 22, 2024
San Diego State will now be known as "Aztec Fast” offensively. However, San Diego State returns one of the lowest numbers in TARP of all FBS teams.
Lewis indicated at media days that every quarterback on the roster has a chance to win the starting position, with mobility providing a leg up in the competition.
Sophomore AJ Duffy arrives after transferring from Florida State, bringing just seven passing attempts in his college career. Danny O’Neil was also mentioned as a dual-threat option who was offered by Lewis while at Colorado.
The skill positions bring minimal experience with the exception of West Virginia transfer Ja’Shaun Poke at wide receiver. The sixth-year senior was a member of the Kent State offense for four seasons under Lewis.
Running back duties will be split between holdovers Kenan Christon and Jaylon Armstead, who combined for 198 carries with neither eclipsing three yards after contact.
The offensive line is a collection of names imported from North Dakota, Washington, Arizona and Akron. TARP indicates 47% of snaps return from last season's total, propped by center-turned-right guard Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli.
The defense is just as green in Lewis' inaugural season, particularly on a defensive line that's expected to move from a three-man front to a four-man front for defensive coordinator Eric Schmidt.
Linebacker Cody Moon is the only one of the top seven tacklers returning, but he's now projected in a backup role in the latest depth chart. The centerpiece of the three-man front is nose tackle Tupu Alualu, who logged 17 tackles and seven missed tackles in 490 snaps.
There are winnable games on the schedule despite the numerous red flags of a new coaching staff, schemes and the lowest returning experience in the conference.
The Aztecs will be heavy favorites in the opener against Texas A&M-Commerce, while Central Michigan, Hawaii, Utah State and Air Force project within a touchdown. The Aztecs will be double-digit underdogs in the remaining seven games with a win total projection of 3.9.
Kent State took multiple years to improve from a two-win season with Lewis at the helm, An uptempo brand with no experience will only precipitate mistakes.
With only five potential games in which San Diego State can emerge victorious, look for a season win total under.
For those who listen to the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, the Aztecs should be considered for a weekly over with the new pace on offense and inexperience on defense.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-120)
The bright spot at Mountain West Media Days was seeing the return of former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo. The new SJSU coach spent more than 20 years with Navy implementing the triple option, winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy on five different occasions.
Hampered by restrictions and NIL situations, Niumatalolo failed to make a bowl in his final three seasons before Navy made the decision not to retain the coach. While Niumatalolo is famous for the triple-option offense, a season as an analyst under Chip Kelly at UCLA in 2023 will bring a different flavor of offense to San Jose State.
Offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann has a long history of offensive assistant positions throughout his career, running from the NFL to FBS to FCS.
Two stops will be the sole source of inspiration for his offense in San Jose: his time in Honolulu and Pullman with Nick Rolovich. The “Spread and Shred” was the scheme used by Rolovich at both Hawaii and Washington State, a version of the Run N' Shoot with variations of modern football.
San Jose State will replicate the philosophies that include an even split of 11, 10 and empty back sets.
Expect a high rate of passing with inside zone as the backbone of the rushing attack, similar to Stutzmann’s time as the passing-game coordinator at Hawaii in 2019.
The returning experience on offense will be a struggle this season for the Spartans, as they lose more than 98% of rushing yards from 2023.
While running back is not a big part of the offense, determining a quarterback will be vital to the season.
Emmett Brown attempted just four passes at Washington State last year, while junior Walker Eget has a career total of nine passing attempts since 2021. A six-way battle for the position will determine who runs the "Spread and Shred" and who has the opportunity to throw to the best player on offense in wide receiver Nick Nash.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Derrick Odum remains on staff after the departure of Brent Brennan to Arizona.
The defense was multiple in personnel last season, often working in quarters and Cover 3 to prevent explosive plays.
The Spartans return less than 45% of tackles, pressures and pass breakups after the defense was ravaged in the offseason by graduation and the transfer portal.
Linebacker Jordan Pollard returns for his third season after providing the highest coverage grade in 2023 despite struggling against the run.
If the roster and offensive scheme reset weren’t enough to overcome, San Jose State was given no breaks in terms of conference scheduling. The second half of the schedule includes Wyoming, Fresno State, Boise State and UNLV.
The Spartans will also head to elevation in the state of Colorado twice with games against Air Force and Colorado State.
San Jose State will be a comfortable favorite over Sacramento State, Kennesaw State and Nevada while having a fighting chance as a short underdog in four other games.
The Spartans probably won't hit their ceiling of seven wins, but the market number of 4.5 is too low.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-105)
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Despite never winning the Mountain West, Hawaii is ready to throw a wrinkle in the conference championship picture.
Head coach Timmy Chang enters his third season with the most experience he's had since his return to the island.
The road to the title game runs through Honolulu, as Boise State and UNLV will travel to the island on the seven-game Mountain West schedule. Falling just short of a bowl in 2023, two losses came by a single possession including an opener at Vanderbilt.
Chang told me at MWC Media Days that “situational youth and conditioning played a factor, but neither will be a problem this season.”
The Run N' Shoot offense returns more than 80%, per TARP, returning the maximum at nearly every position except the offensive line.
Quarterback Brayden Schager returns for a third season after producing twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays last year. The Dallas native saw a minimal bump in turnover-worthy plays with pressure, moving from 2.2% to 2.6% in a crowded pocket.
Hawaii also brings back its top six pass-catchers, including slot Pofele Ashlock and home-run hitter Steven McBride out wide. The Rainbow Warriors were successful in nearly every pass route, gaining the most explosiveness from crossing routes.
Although the offensive line returns just three starters, a number of role players with snaps will complete the unit.
Both tackles return alongside center Sergio Muasau, who played 819 snaps at left guard last season. The move to center is not foreign to Muasau. He logged 343 snaps at the position in 2022.
Have. A. Day. Steven McBride! 😤😤 pic.twitter.com/Jlbg3Bwepa
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) August 27, 2023
The Hawaii defense will get a boost with the return linebacker Logan Taylor, who missed a good chunk of last season with an injury. The fifth-year senior produced 38 stops in 2022 and will now serve as captain under new defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman.
Thurman, a former NFL DC, will lean on coordinator-turned-assistant Jacob Yoro in a scheme that consists of “what our players can handle."
The secondary is the strength of the defense from an experience perspective. Cornerback Cam Stone leads the unit after allowing only half of his targets to turn into receptions.
The schedule will be challenging in numerous spots, but three bye weeks provide rest for the most-traveled team in the nation.
The Warriors are expected to go vanilla in the opener against Delaware State before a visit from a UCLA team under new management in Week 1. The first bye week comes in early September in preparation for Sam Houston and Northern Iowa.
Conference play starts after another bye week in a coin-flip game against San Diego State.
However, a trip to the Mountain West Championship will likely be out of reach with Fresno State and Boise State on tap. Both opponents are expected to field the best secondaries in the conference.
There are four comfortable favorite spots on the schedule, including Delaware State, Northern Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. The win total projection for Hawaii lands at 4.7, as several other coin-flip games will determine the result.
While there may be no answers for UNLV's offense, the Rebels are expected to have a secondary that finishes in the middle of the conference. A road game at Sam Houston is another advantageous spot, as the Bearkats will feature one of the lowest-graded secondaries in Conference USA.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-165)
Service academies do not dip into the transfer portal, making returning experience an even more important factor to teams such as Air Force.
After producing 31 wins in three seasons surrounding the pandemic, head coach Troy Calhoun will have plenty of work replacing the key components on each side of the ball.
The Falcons have entered a season with minimal experience in the past, missing bowl games in 2017 and 2018.
Offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen must replace his top rushers and quarterback after struggles with injuries a season ago. Air Force produced its worst turnover margin since 2017, losing 11 fumbles on the season.
Now, the offense pivots to quarterback John Busha and a limited sample of 19 passing attempts in 2023. Although Busha hasn't flashed any rushing skills at Air Force, the junior did go over 1,000 yards on the ground during his senior season in high school.
Meanwhile, on the O-line, Costen Cooley takes over starting duties at the center position after playing just six snaps last year.
The running back stable also takes a hit in experience, with the fullback position playing the most critical role at Air Force. Dylan Carson takes over the position full-time after rushing for 493 yards and an average of four yards after contact last year.
Importantly, the Falcons remain completely dependent on the fullback dive and triple option.
On the other side, the 3-3-5 and Cover 3 defense from coordinator Brian Knorr loses key pieces up front.
The cornerbacks are the most experienced unit on the defense, led by Jamari Bellamy, who allowed only 21 catches on 37 targers.
Despite the experience in the secondary, Air Force can't expect to have much of a pass rush from new edge players Jack Curtis and Aidan Swartz. However, returning nose tackle Payton Zdroik ranked third on the team in pressures last season.
Air Force will be large favorites over Merrimack in the opener, but half of the schedule projects within a touchdown.
Two games will be problematic for the new personnel running the triple option, as Wyoming and Fresno State have two of the best defensive fronts in the Mountain West.
The season ends with Nevada and San Diego State on the road, which is important because both teams will rely on ground attacks against two defensivee ends with minimal experience.
For win-total purposes, it's worth noting that a Bronco Mendenhall-led New Mexico team will come off a bye week to host the Falcons off their Commander-in-Chief Trophy game against Navy.
Air Force's win total projection falls at 5.6, giving value to the plus-money under.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+110)
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Jay Norvell continues to progress toward a bowl season in Fort Collins, moving the Rams from three to five wins after a Year 0 situation in 2022. With an offense that brings a powder keg of explosives from an experience perspective, Colorado State is expected to take the next step into postseason play.
TARP indicates the Rams return 84% on the offensive side of the ball, with the defense coming in at the national average of 64%.
The squad had a number of chances to finish as an eight-win team, but a loss to Colorado in double-overtime hurt its chances. Norvell's team was even closer in two conference losses to Hawaii and UNLV, losing by a combined five points.
Gunslinger Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns under center, lighting up the skies for nearly 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2023.
There were plenty of mistakes from an interception perspective, but the sophomore did trim his turnover-worthy play rate from 7% to 5%. Fowler-Nicolosi struggled the most in a pressured pocket with a 20% dip in adjusted completion percentage and a 9% increase in turnover-worthy plays.
Sheesh what a throw from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pic.twitter.com/gKQqnlYHEw
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 28, 2023
The offensive line remains in a rebuild for Norvell, as opponents created pressure on 26% of Colorado State's dropbacks.
The unit continues to progress with center Jacob Gardner serving as the anchor after earning second-team all-Mountain West honors last season.
While the remainder of the offensive line brings 75% of snaps from the team total last year, it's the size of the bigs that brings intrigue. Each offensive lineman lists at a minimum of 6-foot-4 and 300 pounds — a stark contrast from what Norvell had 24 months ago.
Better protection for Fowler-Nicolosi equates to greater explosive plays, especially with wide receiver Tory Horton entering the season as quite possibly the best wideout in the Group of Five. The senior collected 134 targets in the slot and out wide with only four drops and an average of 2.7 yards per route run.
Defensive coordinator Freddie Banks' unit continues to improve like the offense, returning 72% of tackles from last season.
Safety Jack Howell leads the nickel defense as a first-team all-Mountain West selection, posting more forced incompletions than any other player on the roster.
The linebacker unit has a chance to be the best in the Mountain West, led by middle linebacker Chase Wilson.
Colorado State projects to have the 49th-toughest schedule in the nation, powered by nonconference games against Texas and Colorado.
However, the Rams will be heavy favorites in three games against Northern Colorado, UTEP and New Mexico. The Miners and Lobos will be on back-to-back travel before playing in the elevation that Fort Collins has to offer.
Colorado State's win total will be dictated by numerous coin-flip games on the back half of the schedule. With the pass offense and defensive secondary serving as the strength of this team, the Rams will have key advantages against San Jose State and Nevada.
While the full-season and conference win total projections are close to the market offering, a Game of the Year wager against Colorado may be in line for the second straight season. In fact, last year's preseason best bet of Colorado State +10 cashed despite the line closing at +23.5.
Colorado will begin the season against North Dakota State and Nebraska, while the Rams will prepare against Northern Colorado.
The Rams will host the in-state rivalry this season, with the Buffaloes looking ahead to their first conference game against Baylor.
Colorado’s strength on offense is the passing attack, which is exactly what the Rams are best prepared to defend.
Pick: Game of the Year: Colorado State +7.5 vs. Colorado (Sept. 14)
Weeks before the season, Utah State fired head coach Blake Anderson with cause for “failure to submit a required report regarding an alleged crime.” The legal battle for Anderson is expected to be lengthy, but he will not be leading the Aggies.
Instead, defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling was named interim head coach in mid-July, just a few months after taking a position at Utah State following two seasons as coordinator at New Mexico State.
Dreiling will now try to replicate a similar situation at Northwestern a season ago, when a defensive coordinator was hired from the FCS ranks before ultimately leading his team to a bowl game as interim coach.
The Utah State defense is expected to be multiple under Dreiling, as New Mexico State played at least 140 snaps in nickel, dime and 2-2-7 personnel depending on down and distance.
The coverage will be zone 90% of the time, utilizing quarters and Cover 3 to protect against explosive plays. New Mexico State finished top-25 in preventing standard down explosives, something Dreiling will look to replicate at Utah State.
In Logan, the Aggies bring back just over 70% of pressures and pass breakups from a defense led by Ike Larsen.
Offensive coordinator Kyle Cefalo has been with Anderson since 2017 at Arkansas State and was promoted to his current role last year.
While no changes are expected from a scheme and personnel perspective, a quarterback battle will last through fall camp. Iowa transfer Spencer Petras was the leader in the clubhouse after the spring game, but Cefalo must consider transfers Bryson Barnes from Utah and CJ Tiller from Boise State.
Whichever quarterback wins the battle will have one of the best offensive line and wide receiver units in the Mountain West. Wide receivers Jalen Royals and Micah Davis each averaged more than 2.1 yards per route run last season.
The recent news of Anderson’s firing trimmed Utah State's power rating by a point, with the schemes and play-calling unchanged. Utah State projects just a shade over five wins on the season.
The Aggies will be double-digit underdogs against USC, Utah, Boise State, Wyoming and Washington State. Conversely, Utah State will be a double-digit favorite over Robert Morris, Temple and New Mexico.
San Diego State will also make the trip to Logan on back-to-back travel as a touchdown underdog.
The win total projection is in sync with the market after the Anderson news, meaning coin-flip games against UNLV, Hawaii and Colorado State will determine the season.
All three teams project in the upper half of the Mountain West in terms of the defensive back seven, but Utah State needs just a single win to push a market number of five wins.
The best bet is on the over at five, but timing is everything when it comes to college football investments.
Allow the Anderson news to settle while awaiting quarterback news to hit social media in mid-August. While over 5 is the best bet, the negativity could draw a much better number closer to the opener against Robert Morris.
Pick: Over 5 (-120)
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Head coach Barry Odom enters his second season in Las Vegas looking to capitalize on a season that ended with a berth in the Mountain West Championship.
Odom, a longtime defensive coordinator and head coach at the Power 5 level, has a perfect complement on the offensive side of the ball with coordinator Brennan Marion.
While the defense returns national average levels of experience for Odoom’s three-man nickel and dime packages, the offense will have plenty of holes to fill at the skill positions.
Marion is the inventor of the Go-Go offense, an eye-appealing system that can satisfy the appetite of any college football consumer.
Opponents have plenty to keep track of in pre- and post-snap activities, from chasing motion in multiple running back sets to RPOs in conjunction with zone-read options.
Marion has essentially created a playbook in EA Sports College Football 25 and brought it to real life at every stop of his coaching career.
UNLV's Go-Go offense is fun to watch! Condensed unbalanced set running zone read triple for a nice gain handing off to the dive back. pic.twitter.com/1yYycSO3Dh
— Old Football Film (@FilmHistoric) March 25, 2024
The first order for business is determining a quarterback afterJayden Maiava’s transfer to USC.
Two transfers are expected to compete for duties in the Go-Go: Campbell’s Hajj-Malik Williams and Holy Cross' Matthew Sluka. (If Williams' name rings a bell for Action Network readers, we invested in the Camels offense weekly in 2021.)
The sixth-year senior has compiled 58 passing touchdowns to just 26 interceptions in his career, adding another 1,000 yards of scrambling and nearly 500 yards off designed calls.
𝐁𝐎𝐎𝐌!
Hajj-Malik Williams finds Austin Hite for the 51 yard score!
Camels lead 14-7#RollHumps🐪 pic.twitter.com/Fk52D8DjEZ
— Campbell Football (@GoCamelsFB) October 8, 2022
Sluka led Holy Cross in two near upsets of FBS teams last season.
The fifth-year senior's career rushing numbers eclipse most FBS running backs, blasting opponents for 38 touchdowns on the ground with 214 missed tackles. A career average depth of target at 12 yards shows the deep-ball skills, as he has 59 passing touchdowns to just 15 interceptions.
Cameron Friel remains on the UNLV roster for a third season, completing a Rebels quarterback room that's full of talent and depth.
The trio of quarterbacks are blessed with the return of Ricky White, who led the team with 115 targets and seven touchdowns in 2023. The junior could be the most explosive target in college football, leading all FBS wide receivers in yards per route run at 4.05.
Odom’s ties to Arkansas have paid off in the transfer portal pipeline to Las Vegas.
Former Razorbacks linebacker Jackson Woodard will begin his second season for the Rebels after leading the team with 71 tackles, and sixth-year senior Jalen Catalon — a former locker room leader for Odom at Arkansas — comes in at safety.
Edge Jalen Dixon returns with second-team all-Mountain West honors after compiling 23 pressures in 2023. UNLV projects to have a better defense than it did a season ago, especially after improving a top-40 rank in opponent on-target rate.
The Rebels' experience numbers moved their offseason power rating down because of the FCS transfers on offense, but UNLV should be as potent as it was in 2023.
The seven-game conference schedule is one of the toughest in the MWC, but Fresno State and Boise State must run through Allegiant Stadium. A trip to Hawaii could also be tricky, but the Rebels head to Honolulu off a bye week.
The nonconference slate includes road games at Houston and Kansas. However, the Jayhawks will host from the smaller Children’s Mercy Park with Memorial Stadium under construction.
With offensive firepower not accounted for in experience metrics, look for the Go-Go offense to be as explosive with the return of White. Defensively, Odom did a great job fortifying a unit with experience in the backfield.
UNLV has just as much talent as its Mountain West peers but at a much better price. Buy a conference future with Fresno State serving as the hedge spot on the schedule.
Pick: UNLV to Win Mountain West (+600)
Despite the retirement of head coach Craig Bohl, there are no expected changes for Wyoming's culture with Jay Sawvel in charge after serving as defensive coordinator since 2020.
Linebackers coach Aaron Bohl will move into the coordinator role after serving on his father's staff as a linebackers coach.
The biggest change for Wyoming comes on offense after it struggled to move the chains and create chunk plays in 2023.
Jay Johnson steps in as offensive coordinator after serving in the same role at Michigan State during the Mel Tucker era. The former Northern Iowa quarterback has served on the offensive staff of a half-dozen FBS teams in the last decade.
The former Spartans play-caller preferred a balanced attack that used inside and outside zone read run concepts.
There could be a tempo increase in Johnson’s offense. His team's ranked in the middle of FBS in pace, while Wyoming averaged more than 30 seconds per play for a bottom-10 ranking.
Evan Svoboda begins his second season in Laramie after attempting 36 passes in four games last season. The former junior college quarterback is one of the biggest in FBS, coming in at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds.
Sawvel is confident Svoboda can fill the Josh Allen mold, hitting wide receiver burners Will Pelissier and Alex Brown.
Heard this one before? A Wyoming QB wearing #17 dominates with his legs.
Evan Svoboda picks up a 1st down at the 10 and Toledo is out of timeouts. They’ll bleed clock for a game-winning field goal. pic.twitter.com/IHm3iIsTam
— Steve Helwick (@s_helwick) December 31, 2023
With stability at the running back position thanks to second-team all-Mountain West honoree Harrison Waylee, Wyoming will be dangerous against teams unable to defend zone read.
The offensive line returns four starters, turning to Jake Davies to protect Svoboda's blindside. Davies made a single appearance as a freshman last season, working as a defensive end and tight end in high school.
The 4-2-5 will continue to be the staple of the Cowboys defense, returning one of the highest production marks in the Mountain West. Wyoming brings back more than 80% of tackles, pressures and pass breakups from a squad that ranked top-25 in limiting ground explosives.
The defensive line is deep, led by Jordan Bertagnole in the middle. Linebacker Shae Suiaunoa and safety Wyett Ekeler round out a defense that's expected to be top-three in the Mountain West at every level.
The nonconference schedule bodes well for the Pokes with two comfortable favorite spots against Idaho and North Texas. Coin-flip games against poor defensive lines also await in Arizona State and BYU.
Wyoming misses Fresno State and Hawaii on the conference slate, while Boise State and Air Force must come to War Memorial Stadium.
The win total projection for Sawvel in his first season falls at 8.2 with five wins expected in the conference.
With plus-money juice on a number that's lower in the market, look to back Svoboda and the possibility of Wyoming becoming an explosive offense.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)
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I highlighted the Bulldogs in mid-May when Mountain West win totals were released, as head coach Jeff Tedford returned from a health scare that kept the coach out of the New Mexico Bowl in victory over New Mexico State.
Tedford attended Mountain West Media Days in early July, only to announce immediately afterward he was taking a sabbatical once again for health reasons. If there's a positive, interim head coach Tim Skipper served in this same role for bowl preparations that resulted in a rout of the Aggies.
Two elements heading in a positive direction will impact the season, including a nasty defense that could be the best in the Mountain West and a schedule that was tailor-made for a trip to the conference championship.
Leading tackler Malachi Langley returns to middle linebacker, joining edge Devo Bridges as the biggest Havoc creators on the defense.
Coordinator Kevin Coyle sent blitz on 32% of snaps and now adds a number of players from USC via the portal into his 4-2-5 defense.
For Fresno State to remain among the best teams in the conference, quarterback Mikey Keene must continue to cut down on mistakes. Keene trimmed his turnover-worthy play rate by half compared to his first season with UCF.
Wide receiver Jalen Moss took 75 targets primarily from out wide, while Chedon James transfers in from Idaho State after playing 500 snaps in the slot and posting an explosive 2.1 yards per route run.
Mose Vavao, who has played 2,400 snaps at guard, anchors the offensive line. Vavao is expected to move to center with 11 career snaps at the position.
After an opening trip to Michigan, the schedule becomes one of the lightest in the nation. The Bulldogs will be double-digit favorites in seven games on the schedule, with shorter favorite odds against UNLV and Washington State.
The projection for Fresno State lands right at 9 wins, prompting the early move on 7.5 in the market.
Tedford's departure didn't move the market in terms of a win total, but it did drop the Bulldogs in the conference race at several sportsbooks.
A road trip to UNLV may be the only roadblock on the seven-game Mountain West schedule, especially with a secondary talented enough to handle the vertical air traffic from Colorado State and Hawaii.
More importantly, Fresno State is projected to be a favorite in all seven conference games.
Pick: Fresno State to Make Mountain West Championship (+110)
The Broncos had plenty of roster and coaching turnover toward the end of 2023, but nothing could stop Boise State from winning its third conference championship since 2017.
Head coach Andy Avalos was fired after a severe dip on a defense that finished 129th in tackle grading. Defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson was given the interim head coach tag with two regular-season games remaining and earned the full-time gig after dominating UNLV in the conference championship game.
The changes didn't end there, as quarterback Taylen Green hit the transfer portal before the bowl game. The offseason has been full of positives, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter returns to the position he held for the final eight games of the 2022 season when his offense generated at least 40 points in half of those games.
More positive news came through the transfer portal with the arrival of blue-chip USC quarterback Malachi Nelson. The redshirt freshman couldn't find any playing time at Southern California, opting to flash the strength and angles of his throwing delivery in Boise.
Malachi Nelson looked incredible today:
9-16 for 137 yards and a touchdown in the BSU Spring game.
Here's some of his top throws, including a beautiful deep ball to Chase Penry for the first score of the game pic.twitter.com/HFo2DFkr01— Brady Frederick (@BradyFrederick_) April 21, 2024
No matter how much Nelson has progressed, the quarterback will have the best weapon in the Group of Five in running back Ashton Jeanty. The junior opted to stay out of the transfer portal after averaging 4.3 yards after contact and forcing 62 missed tackles in 180 rushing attempts.
Nelson is sure to lean on Jeanty after his 38 catches with a negative average depth of target last season. Koetter had plenty of success in man and outside zone run concepts with Jeanty in the backfield in 2022.
Boise State is one of the few teams to return 100% of advanced defensive statistics in any season, per TARP. The Broncos will return every starter to the defense, but there were periods of inept play against Colorado State and Fresno State.
The defense struggled to contain explosives in standard downs, finishing in the bottom half of FBS in coverage grading and Finishing Drives.
When Boise State pivoted to Cover 3 against pass-heavy teams, opposing offenses had no issues creating a positive Success Rate and EPA.
Danielson elevated assistant coach Erik Chinander to coordinator, as the former Nebraska coach is expected to run a multiple defense in terms of formations.
Danielson veered away from Avalos' 4-2-5 for more nickel and dime three-man fronts. Chinander, meanwhile, ran a 3-4 at Nebraska and UCF under Scott Frost.
Edge Ahmed Hassanein will terrorize Mountain West quarterbacks after producing 47 pressures and 14 sacks in 2023.
While the overall season numbers reflect poorly on the defense, Boise State contained a potent UNLV offensive attack in a conference championship victory.
Boise State's conference schedule is one of the easiest in the Mountain West, but a number of nonconference games could keep the Broncos from reaching the College Football Playoff.
After making a trip south to face Georgia Southern, Boise will travel to Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon as a heavy underdog. While most teams face either Washington State or Oregon State, the Broncos will see them both on the smurf turf.
The Broncos will be heavy favorites in all seven Mountain West games, but tricky scheduling spots still exist:
- Utah State will be coming off a bye week when traveling to Boise.
- The Broncos get a bye week after traveling to Hawaii but hit the road to play its toughest conference opponent in UNLV.
- Boise will also be on back-to-back travel at Wyoming before Thanksgiving week.
Despite those challenges, the Broncos still dodge Air Force, Colorado State and Fresno State.
Boise State can afford to play subpar defense and still make the conference championship game. Nonconference games are a different story, though, dimming its hopes of making the CFP.
Boise State gets all the attention as the Group of Five's playoff team, but Liberty should finish undefeated in Conference USA, while Appalachian State and Texas State have a puncher's chance from the Sun Belt.
Conference odds are also outpriced in the market at -200, as the Broncos' final number to win the Mountain West based on win totals is +140. With a win total projection of 9.5, the best value lands on Boise's win total over 9 with juice of -150 or better.
Boise State will be a comfortable favorite in the final 10 games after Oregon, giving bettors several games to hedge if the defense continues to give up explosives and tackle poorly.
Pick: Over 9 (-150 or Better)
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One of the remaining teams in the “Pac-2” comes down on the Palouse.
Despite the conference realignment changes, Washington State has maintained stability on the coaching staff since Jake Dickert took over head-coaching duties late in the 2021 season. The results have been mixed, losing bowls in 2021 and 2022 before falling short of the postseason with five wins in 2023.
Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle will have a quarterback battle in fall camp focusing on sophomore John Mateer and FCS transfer Zevi Eckhaus from Bryant.
Mateer has been a backup at Washington State for a few seasons, going 15-of-19 in passing attempts in limited mop-up duties.
Eckhaus generates excitement for the fan base as one of the best quarterbacks at the FCS level. In three years at Bryant, Eckhaus posted 71 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.
Throw in another 877 career rushing yards from scrambles, and Washington State would be set at quarterback even after Cam Ward's transfer to Miami.
TOUCHDOWN‼️@zevi_eckhaus ➡️ @_alwaysopen_19
Watch LIVE | @Pac12Networkpic.twitter.com/gR2ruTcu0N
— Washington State Football (@WSUCougarFB) April 27, 2024
Questions remain elsewhere in the offense, from a new set of targets in the wide receiver room to an offensive line that performed poorly a year ago.
Kyle Williams returns at wideout after scoring six touchdowns a season ago. He brings great hands to the offense, dropping just three passes on 85 targets.
The right side of the line returns the two most experienced players from a snaps perspective in guard Christian Hilborn and tackle Fa’alili Fa’amoe. Both offensive linemen combined to allow 36 quarterback hurries last season.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding's 3-3-5 defense ran a modest amount of blitz with a mix of Cover 1, Cover 3 and man coverage. However, the numbers dropped to 114th in tackling, 112th in Havoc and 105th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The defense returns 51% of experience from a season ago, taking the biggest hit in the passes defended category.
Linebacker Kyle Thornton returns the most tackles on the roster but also pulled one of the lowest grades in pass coverage. David Gusta returns to the defensive interior with 16 pressures but graded out poorly in pass-rush situations over 256 opponent passing attempts.
Opponents are sure to take to the skies when attacking the Cougars defense.
Like Oregon State, Wazzu has the chance to play spoiler in a number of games. The Apple Cup will come on Sept. 14 with the Cougs projected as an underdog of at least two touchdowns. Washington State will also make a short trip to Boise State as an underdog, but an upset could end the Broncos' chances of making the playoff.
The Cougars project at 7.1 wins on the season, below the market total of 7.5.
Only three games on the schedule are true coin-flips: Texas Tech and Wyoming at home, along with Oregon State on the road. Considering the Red Raiders and Cowboys both have quarterbacks who can throw downfield, bet the Cougars' season-long under.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
The Beavers had an outstanding chance of making the Pac-12 Championship entering the final month of the season in 2023. However, a 2-3 stretch over their final five games sent them to the Sun Bowl, where Notre Dame smacked them, 40-8.
Former head coach Jonathan Smith inherited a 2018 Oregon State team with just a single win the season before, building the program from the ground up. The 2022 season saw the Beavers collect 10 wins, including a Las Vegas Bowl demolition of Florida.
Now, like 2018, it's time to hit the reset button.
With Smith off to Michigan State, Trent Bray will take over head-coaching duties after being elevated to defensive coordinator in 2022.
Much like the newly-branded Pac-2, Oregon State will enter a complete rebuild with one of the lowest experience ranks of all FBS teams.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson did a fantastic job as the quarterbacks coach at UCLA. He deserves the credit for trimming the turnover-worthy plays from former Bruins signal-caller Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Oregon State returns 34% of experience, per TARP, but those numbers are heavily derived from the transfer portal.
A scheme change is also expected for the roster, as Gunderson will move from the Beavers' old ground-and-pound identity to more of a spread approach.
New defensive coordinator Keith Heyward has held multiple positions over the previous decade, last serving in this role at UNLV in 2022.
Bray is expected to have a heavy hand in the defense, running a 2-4-5 with a heavier man tendency compared to zone. Oregon State ran blitz at a higher rate of 35% last season but now must deal with one of the lower experience numbers at 20%.
Cornerback Jaden Robinson is the only returning starter, collecting six pass breakups while allowing a catch rate of only 48% when targeted.
While Oregon State will not compete for a conference championship or have a place in the Mountain West standings, there's plenty of motivation to spoil the seasons of other teams.
The rivalry with Oregon has been maintained but will get a friendlier weather date of Sept. 14. The Beavers can also spoiler to Mountain West teams looking to make the College Football Playoff, specifically Boise State the week before the conference championship game.
The market is spot on in its Oregon State offerings. Action Network projects the Beavers at 7.8 wins with a Game of the Year projection of +20.5 against Oregon.
With Oregon State projected as a favorite of a touchdown or more in eight games, look to take an over with hedge spots in November against Air Force and Washington State.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+105)
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Mountain West Futures & Best Bets
- New Mexico: Over 2 (-120)
- Nevada: Under 1.5 Mountain West Wins (-130)
- San Diego State: Under 5.5 (-120)
- San Jose State: Over 4.5 (-105)
- Hawaii: Over 4.5 (-165)
- Air Force: Under 6.5 (+110)
- Colorado State: +7.5 vs. Colorado (Game of the Year)
- Utah State: Over 5 (-120)
- UNLV: To Win Mountain West (+600)
- Wyoming: Over 6.5 (+100)
- Fresno State: To Make Mountain West Championship (+110)
- Boise State: Over 9 (-150)
- Washington State: Under 7.5 (+100)
- Oregon State: Over 7.5 (+105)
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