SEC Conference Preview, Picks, Futures | Updated Odds & Expert Best Bets for 2024
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (clockwise from top-left): Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, Georgia wide receiver Dominic Lovett, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III.
SEC Conference Preview, Picks, Futures
Team | SEC Wins | Win Total |
---|---|---|
Texas | 6.9 | 10.4 |
Georgia | 6.7 | 10.7 |
Alabama | 6 | 9.9 |
LSU | 6.2 | 9.9 |
Missouri | 5.4 | 9.4 |
Ole Miss | 5.2 | 9.2 |
Tennessee | 4.1 | 7.8 |
Oklahoma | 4 | 7.8 |
Texas A&M | 4.7 | 8.2 |
Auburn | 3.6 | 7.3 |
Kentucky | 2.62 | 6 |
Florida | 2.5 | 4.9 |
South Carolina | 2.3 | 5.4 |
Mississippi State | 2 | 5.7 |
Arkansas | 1.3 | 4.3 |
Vanderbilt | 0.4 | 3 |
DALLAS — The SEC shocked the world with the announcement that Oklahoma and Texas would defect from the Big 12 to join the conference nearly two years ago.
The transition for the new-look conference is complete. The SEC has entered the Big 12 footprint, putting its conference media days in Dallas.
However, the changes for 2024 are not limited to the addition of two new teams. Legendary Alabama head coach Nick Saban retired shortly after last season concluded, and Texas A&M and Mississippi State are also under new management.
The fire beneath the coaching hot seat burns brightest at Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and a brutal schedule could create a vacancy at Florida as well.
Another drama-filled SEC season is in store, but first, let's take a look at the season and conference win totals.
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Vanderbilt Commodores
SEC: +50000 · Win Total: 2.5
There have been some memorable quotes since Clark Lea took the head-coaching position in 2021. Lea started 2022 SEC Media Days with a bold proclamation that Vanderbilt University was building to be “the best football program in the country."
After three seasons and nine total wins — two in SEC play — Lea is officially on the hot seat as the university spends $300 million in stadium renovations.
After spending years on Mike Elko's staff, Lea became a standout defensive coordinator at Notre Dame. The head coach will once again be in complete control of the defense, coordinating the scheme and calling plays after firing coordinator Nick Howell.
The defense returns nearly 80% of experience, led by linebacker Langston Patterson in a scheme that mostly plays a three-man front. This is a portal-heavy group, featuring nickel Randon Fontenette from TCU and edge Khordae Sydnor from Purdue.
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The New Mexico State-to-Vanderbilt Pipeline
The offense is where Vanderbilt will create headlines, thanks to the pipeline from Las Cruces to Nashville.
Fresh out of New Mexico State, the Commodores now boast quarterback Diego Pavia, former head coach Jerry Kill as an analyst and Tim Beck staying in the coordinator role.
The Aggies ran plenty of 10 and 11 personnel with a 60% lean to the rush. The zone read option served as the backbone of the run game.
Pavia dominated Conference USA last season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, running for another 1,000 and adding 33 total touchdowns.
State champion wrestler Diego Pavia.
If a 5'9 QB does this to you, do you have to retire? pic.twitter.com/GW8aMiKVP4
— Colin Deaver (@ColinDeaverTV) November 18, 2023
However, the schedule won't help Lea reach his first bowl game as Vanderbilt's head coach. The Commodores project to be favorites in just two games — nonconference matchups against Alcorn State and Ball State.
The Sept. 14 game at Georgia State could be the deciding factor on the win total, as the Panthers are projected to finish toward the bottom of the Sun Belt with a rebuilding offense.
Every other game has the Commodores as at least two touchdown underdogs, including a rough SEC home slate against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee.
Vanderbilt's Win Total Projection
Action Network's win total projection falls squarely on three wins, but investors have an opportunity to take the over considering this nonconference slate. Betting an over would require a small hedge on the Georgia State moneyline on Sept. 14.
A four-win season for Vanderbilt in 2024 would take an SEC upset. Although the mathematics say the 'Dores won't win a conference game, the Pavia-Kill-Beck combination beat Auburn last season, and the Tigers are on tap once again on Nov. 2.
Lea enters this season with another memorable statement.
“You can choose to be miserable among the chaos, or you can find the joy,” he said.
The joy for the Vandy bettors would be exceeding a push on its win total.
Pick: Vanderbilt Over 3
The bottom fell out of the Arkansas program in 2023, as the Razorbacks entered the season with two new coordinators and a roster full of transfers. Head coach Sam Pittman leaned on a personal relationship with Dan Enos to run the offense and brought in Travis Williams from Central Florida to run an aggressive defense.
The Hogs improved on the defensive side of the ball, finishing 14th in tackle grading and top-40 in opponent on-target rate.
However, the offense was a disaster. Arkansas failed to score more than 22 points in six conference games and finished 130th in Havoc Allowed.
Bobby Petrino's Return to Arkansas
Athletic director Hunter Yurachek made the decision to stick with Pittman as head coach, and now, the offensive side of the ball is run by former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino.
Although the former Sugar Bowl coach had a disgraceful departure from Fayetteville over a decade ago, the move to coordinator has energized an apathetic fanbase.
The dynamic quarterback and running back duo of KJ Jefferson (UCF) and Raheim Sanders (South Carolina) hit the transfer portal for greener pastures, but Petrino assisted in pulling former Boise State quarterback Taylen Green and former Utah running back Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Petrino's offense is a balanced attack that looks to create explosive plays through a big running back and a quarterback who can hit any of the four verticals down the field. Personnel, Scheme and run concepts are all based on the ability of the roster.
The former Missouri State head coach nearly beat Arkansas in 2022. Razorback fans know Petrino has generated offense at every stop in his career.
Green should benefit from a great offensive coordinator, just as he did with Dirk Koetter at Boise State. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Petrino already knows Green's game well.
“Bobby hand-picked Taylen Green and was the first to offer him [out of high school],” Pittman said.
Jackson provides the Knile Davis comparison from Arkansas' 2011 Sugar Bowl team. He's a bruising back with a career 3.7 yards-after-contact mark while creating 67 missed tackles.
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New offensive line coach Eric Mateos will be responsible for integrating portal players in San Jose State's Fernando Carmona, Michigan State's Keyshawn Blackstock and Tennessee's Addison Nichols.
Elsewhere on the line, projected starting guard Patrick Kutas must improve on a poorly-graded 2023 season.
The defense thrived in the Havoc department under Williams with his aggressive nickel scheme. The Razorbacks blitzed on 37% of snaps, producing a high rate of negative plays.
While the defensive line will return Havoc creators in edge Landon Jackson and tackle Eric Gregory, the linebacker unit has minimal depth and starters from the portal.
The secondary nearly returns intact, but it fell to 126th in allowing explosives in passing downs last season. Cornerback Jaylon Braxton emerges as the best of the group after posting seven pass breakups and an interception in 2023.
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The offseason brought a power ratings upgrade thanks to the experience inherited from the portal. Arkansas' win total projection comes in at 4.3 wins, as the Hogs will be clear favorites over Arkansas Pine Bluff, UAB and Louisiana Tech in nonconference play.
Petrino will have dangerous weapons in the passing game. Wide receiver Andrew Armstrong and tight end Luke Hasz both went over 2 yards per route run in 2023 and could provide a big boost for Green through the air.
Value on Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
There's every expectation that the offense will return to scoring points with Petrino in place, but the question remains if Arkansas will score an SEC victory. Mississippi State projects as a coin-flip and the best chance to reach four wins, but a fifth win would require an upset as an underdog, most likely at Auburn or against Texas A&M.
Pittman has won just two of the last 11 games decided by one possession, but he now has a former head coach on staff to assist — something he had in former defensive coordinator Barry Odom, which catapulted Pittman’s first few years in Fayetteville.
With the projected win total close to the market number of 4.5, the focus turns to Game of the Year selections.
The Razorbacks' game against Texas A&M in Arlington counts as a road game on the schedule. They will be facing an Aggies team that will be focused on defense and looking for productive targets on offense.
A&M will have early battles against Notre Dame, Florida and a tricky schedule spot against a Bowling Green team coming off a bye week. On the other side, Arkansas' nonconference slate should only increase the Razorbacks' power rating.
The game currently projects at Texas A&M -11. Look for the Hogs to keep it within single digits on September 28.
Pick: Game of the Year: Arkansas +11 vs. Texas A&M (Sept. 28)
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC: +30000 · Win Total: 4
Mississippi State's first season following the untimely passing of Mike Leach was forgettable. Former defensive coordinator-turned-head-coach Zach Arnett lasted just a single season in Starkville.
The Bulldogs went to work rebuilding the program, snagging one of the nation's top offensive coordinators to be head coach in Jeff Lebby.
Air Raid Returning to Starkville
The Air Raid concepts brought by Leach will be back in play after former offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay elected to run the ball on more than 50% of snaps.
Lebby will up the tempo for Mississippi State, as the Bulldogs ranked 102nd in seconds per play last season at 27.8. Lebby's Oklahoma offense, meanwhile, came in at 23.3.
"Being the aggressor and being pedal-down will be who we are," Lebby said.
The transfer portal brings in former Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen, who eclipsed 2,000 yards and scored 17 total touchdowns for the Bears last season. The junior had a nice touchdown-to-interception ratio a season ago but recorded nearly double the amount of turnover-worthy plays compared to big-time throws.
The wide receiver room picked up one the most explosive targets in Group of Five play, as Kelly Akharaiyi averaged a whopping three yards per route run on 89 targets. The UTEP transfer is versatile, taking more than 100 snaps from the slot and 25 from the wideout position.
Mississippi State an Auto-Over Team?
The defense may struggle in conference play this season, but journeyman defensive coordinator and special teams coach Coleman Hutzler is a former Broyles Award nominee.
Seven of the top eight tacklers from a season ago have departed, leaving safety Corey Ellington as the most experienced holdover after posting 66 tackles and two pass breakups.
Mississippi State will move to a 3-4 personnel. The defense will be a liability in Lebby's first season, meaning the Bulldogs could be an auto-over on game totals each week.
There are four straightforward wins on this schedule, as the Bulldogs will be heavy favorites over Eastern Kentucky, Toledo and UMass. A West Coast trip to Tempe also makes Mississippi State a favorite over a green Arizona State secondary.
In SEC play, there are defenses with leaky back sevens, including Arkansas and Tennessee. While Florida is expected to have a quality secondary, the front seven is ripe for high-scoring affairs.
Our win total projection lands at just over 5, giving the nod to the over on Mississippi State's win total.
Pick: Mississippi State Over 4 (-150)
Head coach Shane Beamer enters Year 4 after a 5-7 season that kept the Gamecocks out of bowl season. No changes were made at the coordinator positions with Dowell Logains and Clayton White set to lead the offense and defense, respectively.
Keeping the continuity theme going, South Carolina's 2024 roster brings back more experience than the national average.
Plenty of lessons were learned on both sides of the ball last season, as the offense ranked 118th in sacks allowed while the defense came in at 121st in tackles for loss. With Havoc heading in the wrong direction on both sides of the ball, trench experience will be paramount in 2024.
South Carolina to Lean on the Run
The offense will move on from pass-heavy quarterback Spencer Rattler to dual-threat redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers.
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds, South Carolina will lean into a rushing attack that posted nearly 300 attempts in outside and inside zone read.
South Carolina true freshman QB LaNorris Sellers 36-yard rushing touchdown pic.twitter.com/8Ck1RQi5yo
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 11, 2023
South Carolina won the transfer portal in regards to a battle-tested SEC running back with zone-read experience. Senior Raheim “Rocket” Sanders arrives from Arkansas, bringing more than 2,200 career rushing yards and 17 touchdowns.
The former Razorback has “shaved 6% of body fat off since February,” according to Beamer.
With limited experience in the wide receiver room, Sellers will also lean on Sanders to be a target out of the backfield. No receiver on the roster garnered more than 12 receptions last year.
The offensive line runs two-deep thanks to numerous injuries a season ago. Four starters return, with senior center Vershon Lee serving as the highest-graded run- and pass-blocker from the group.
White called the Gamecocks defense with nearly 700 plays in 4-2-5 personnel.
The back seven is the strength of the unit, finishing top-20 in broken tackles allowed a season ago. The defensive line couldn't produce any Havoc, but true freshman edge Dylan Stewart is expected to start in the opener and could help change that.
Gamecocks Depending on 2 Players in Key Games
The Gamecocks dodged the upper tier of the SEC in scheduling without games against Georgia or Texas. However, the conference schedule caught nearly every other team projected to contend for the SEC title.
South Carolina will be off a bye week before hosting Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but back-to-back road trips to Alabama and Oklahoma in September won't be easy.
Beamer's fourth season projects at 5.4 wins, just shy of the market number at 5.5.
Four games on the schedule will see South Carolina as double-digit favorites, as the Gamecocks are expected to cruise against Old Dominion, Akron, Vanderbilt and Wofford.
However, they're not expected to be a favorite in any other game, with Kentucky being the only game with an underdog spread in the single digits.
South Carolina will depend on two players to resolve all of the issues from 2023, with Sellers creating explosive plays at quarterback and Stewart terrorizing opposing quarterbacks from the edge.
Pick: South Carolina Under 5.5 (-105)
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Florida Gators
SEC: +12000 · Win Total: 4.5
The brutality of the schedule in Billy Napier’s third season as Florida's head coach looms large in Gainesville.
The nonconference slate sees games against in-state rivals Miami, Florida State and Central Florida.
Those games are sandwiched around an SEC schedule that has hidden factors working against the Gators. Florida will head into November against Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss teams all coming off a bye week.
If Napier exits the season without a bowl, it will be the first time Florida has had three consecutive losing seasons in nearly a century.
Talented Roster, Terrible Schedule
The schedule casts a shadow over a roster that has plenty of talent despite losing Princely Umanmielen from the defensive line and Trevor Etienne from the offensive backfield.
Quarterback Graham Mertz comes back for his fifth season after posting his best season in 2023. The former Wisconsin signal-caller cranked out a 20:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, backed by having more than double the number of big-time throws compared to turnover-worthy plays.
Sending pressure to Mertz was fruitless, as he generated the same adjusted completion rate no matter if the pocket was clean or crowded.
The deep pass became a weapon for Florida, as Mertz threw 15 big-time throws to just two turnover-worthy plays on passes exceeding 10 yards.
Graham Mertz, all 20+ yard completions, 2023 season 🚀 pic.twitter.com/xAIkxMnP6Y
— yahia hassan 🏈💻®️ (@yhassan00) July 6, 2024
The offensive line has three returning starters and a few portal additions.
Left tackle Austin Barber played in just nine games last year due to injury, while transfer Damieon George is expected to take one of the guard positions after splitting time at left and right tackle for Alabama last year. Meanwhile, super senior Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson played more than 2,400 snaps in a four-year career at San Diego State, splitting time between left and right tackle.
The defense struggled in all areas, finishing near dead last in stops, opponent rush explosives and tackling.
Austin Armstrong is now listed as the co-defensive coordinator next to the newest hire, Ron Roberts, who spent a single season at Auburn after getting fired at Baylor. Roberts spent the 2018 and 2019 seasons as the defensive coordinator at Louisiana with Napier.
Safety Jordan Castell returns after leading the team in tackles, while defensive interior Caleb Banks comes in at 6-foot-6 and grades out as the best run-stopper on the team.
No Wiggle Room for Gators
Florida is expected to be an underdog in eight games this season. If the Gators want to go over their win total, it must be done before the murderers’ row schedule in November.
Considering Florida will only be a small favorite over UCF and Kentucky, there's not much wiggle room on the schedule to lose games.
Napier must be 4-3 heading into the final bye week preceding a stretch of Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State, or a new job posting might be listed in Gainesville.
Pick: Florida Under 4.5 (+130)
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Kentucky Wildcats
SEC: +10000 · Win Total: 6.5
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops' flirtation with Texas A&M should create plenty of intrigue for the Wildcats this season.
The Cats are set to field the nastiest and potentially best defense in the SEC this season.
A top-25 team in Stuff Rate, the defense has the most depth on the defensive line starting with nose tackle Deone Walker. The junior provided a team-leading 51 pressures while grading out as the best run defender on the entire defense last season.
Kentucky may have the best run-stopping front seven in the nation, but any team electing to pass will be met by cornerback Maxwell Hairston. The second-team all-SEC selection snagged five interceptions with another four pass breakups in 2023.
Defensive coordinator Brad White's unit must return to playing excellent ball in critical moments. The Cats fell from a top-25 rank in third-down defense to outside the top 100 last year.
OC Bush Hamden, QB Brock Vandagriff Look to Spark Offense
Liam Coen left his offensive coordinator position for the NFL and was replaced by former Boise State coordinator Bush Hamdan. Stoops may have found a great fit for the slow and methodical play style Kentucky wants to utilize on offense.
Hamdan ran the Boise offense as slow as Coen’s version at Kentucky; however, the Broncos had an uptempo gear that moved their seconds-per-play rank to 89th.
The bigger question is the efficiency under center.
Brock Vandagriff transfers in from rival Georgia, where playing time was sparse at best. The fourth-year quarterback has attempted just 21 passes since the 2021 season.
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Vandagriff will be expected to scoot, as Hamdan called on former Boise quarterback Taylen Green to rack up more than 360 yards on designed run calls.
The running back stable was upgraded from a talent perspective with Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum coming in. However, the senior is a bit light on experience, racking up double-digit attempts in only one game last season.
The schedule is brutal from a conference perspective with road games against Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The Wildcats will also be tasked with defending Kroger Field against Georgia and Louisville.
Kentucky will be comfortably favored in four games, while Georgia and Texas project as favorites of over three touchdowns.
Luckily for the Cats, coin-flip games against South Carolina, Auburn and Louisville will all be played at home. With a projection of 5.9, Kentucky must sweep a trio of coin-flip games to go over its win total.
Pick: Kentucky Under 6.5 (-115)
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Auburn Tigers
SEC: +6000 · Win Total: 7.5
From a season win total perspective, head coach Hugh Freeze was successful in his first season at Auburn. The Tigers improved to six wins and received an invitation to the Music City Bowl, only to get hammered by Maryland, 31-13.
Auburn lost its final two regular-season games, a heartbreaker to Alabama and a rout by New Mexico State in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
New Staff at Auburn
Freeze made adjustments to his staff in the offseason, firing offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery while bringing in Derrick Nix from Ole Miss. Nix had been a part of the Rebels' staff for 16 years, dating back through Freeze’s tenure.
Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was also fired after being let go at Baylor the previous year.
DJ Durkin takes over a defense that struggled on the back end. Auburn finished 112th in on-target rate allowed, failing to challenge balls in flight.
The defensive coordinator ran a strict 4-2-5 defense at Texas A&M as requested by then-head coach Jimbo Fisher, but Durkin preferred a three-man front at Ole Miss in 2021.
This year's linebacker unit is solidified by Jalen McLeod, who led the team in pressures and finished third in stops.
The experience in the secondary drops off this season with a few underclassmen projected at the safety positions. However, there's no weakness at the slot cornerback position, where Keionte Scott provides more than 450 snaps with a handful from every position on the field.
Scott also returns as one of the best punt returners in the nation.
KEIONTE SCOTT TO THE CRIBBBBBBB[!@KeionteS ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/okf84LyfB5
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) November 11, 2023
Freeze will assume complete control of an offense that returns quarterback Payton Thorne and added plenty of transfers at the wide receiver position.
Thorne was excellent in outside zone-read plays, accumulating nearly 500 rushing yards on designed runs.
The return of Jarquez Hunter keeps Auburn as potent as ever on the ground. The senior has increased his yards after contact each season, going from 3.6 to 4.1 in 2023.
Tight end Rivaldo Fairweather may be the best tight end in the SEC after leading the team in targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns last year.
Value on Tigers Despite Drawing Georgia, Alabama
Despite the SEC abolishing divisions and adding two new members to the conference, Auburn still drew Georgia and Alabama on the schedule.
The Tigers will be comfortable favorites in six home games, with two small underdog spots in Jordan-Hare against Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
The nonconference slate is one of the easiest in recent program history. That includes a game where quarterback-turned-wide receiver transfer Sam Jackson V will see his old team in Cal on Sept. 7.
The win total projection for Freeze in his second year comes in at 7.3 with 3.6 wins expected in conference play.
While there's value in a season-long over 7.5 with plus-money juice, the better bet is to eclipse a conference win total of 3.5. Auburn will be heavy favorites over Vanderbilt and Arkansas, while another three conference games project the Tigers as an underdog within six points.
Auburn also receives a bye week before heading to Columbia, while Missouri will be in a look-ahead spot with a game against Alabama on deck.
Pick: Auburn Over 3.5 Conference Wins (+105)
The Jimbo Fisher era at College Station has come to an end, culminating in a 12-13 record over the past two seasons.
While the 4-2-5 defense did not default through the past six seasons, the offense has been a mitigated disaster in recent years. Fisher turned to Bobby Petrino to run the Aggies offense, and the boost in scoring and efficiency from the quarterback position improved.
Texas A&M averaged 38.5 points in its final four games, but six losses were enough for the administration to clean house before a Texas Bowl loss to Oklahoma State.
A&M's 4-2-5 defense was initially orchestrated by Mike Elko when he served as coordinator from 2018-21. Elko's defense helped produce four consecutive seasons with at least eight wins.
Mike Elko Era Begins at Texas A&M
Elko eventually left for the head-coaching position at Duke, where he posted nine wins and a bowl victory in his first season. Now, Elko returns to College Station to implement a gridlock 4-2-5 scheme with plenty of talent and experience.
College football continues to put a premium on interior defensive linemen, which means tackle Shemar Turner will lead one of the best defensive fronts in the nation. The senior produced 36 pressures and 19 stops in 2023, both extreme numbers for a player lined up between the offensive guards.
The defensive line became even more powerful with the addition of Purdue edge Nic Scourton, who terrorized Big Ten quarterbacks with 42 total pressures.
While the defense should be one of the most complete groups in the nation, questions persist on the offensive side of the ball.
Quarterback Conner Weigman returns for a third season following another injury-plagued campaign. Elko selected Kansas State offensive coordinator Collin Klein to call the offense, and he's expected to replicate many of the Wildcats' features in College Station.
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Expect the Aggies to line up in plenty of 21 and 22 personnel, using multiple running backs to create angles and space in the rushing attack.
The running back room returns its top three rushers and is loaded with blue-chip talent, including Rueben Owens, Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels.
The top questions on offense stem from Weigman’s ability to run an RPO in space with offensive line and wide receiver groups that are completely depleted. Weigman rushed for 150 scramble yards in 2022 but has a career mark of -1 yards in the designed run department.
Unlike the offensive line and receivers, there's depth at the quarterback position, as sophomore Marcel Reed could challenge for the position in camp.
Soft Schedule Aids Aggies
Elko received one of the softest schedules of any SEC program, dodging Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The toughest games on the schedule come at Kyle Field, including a red-hot Missouri team off a bye week and the season finale against Texas.
Although Bowling Green isn't expected to win, the Falcons travel to College Station off a bye week on Sept. 21 — when the Aggies are sandwiched between Florida and Arkansas.
A&M will be favored in seven games on the schedule, with coin-flips coming in the opener against Notre Dame and at Auburn on Nov. 23. The Aggies projects as a touchdown underdog to Texas in a season finale that will be one of the most hostile games in college football this season.
Elko's team projects to win 8.3 games on the season, close to the market price of 8.5.
The Game of the Year market is where opportunity exists on the Aggies. The opening line against Notre Dame is correctly lined, but the Irish defensive front will be a handful for Klein’s offensive changes.
On the flip side, new Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock brings his personnel and schemes from LSU. Denbrock’s last game as the Tigers' OC came against this Aggies defense, and he generated 42 points on 5.5 yards per carry with plenty of explosives.
With the coaching edge on the Notre Dame side, fade the new coach and coordinator who have fresh portal names filling the interior of the offensive line.
Pick: Game of the Year: Notre Dame +1 vs. Texas A&M (Aug. 31)
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Oklahoma Sooners
SEC: +3000 · Win Total: 7.5
Make no mistake: The love for Oklahoma from our mid-May win totals piece still exists.
Head coach Brent Venables turned his initial losing season into a 10-win campaign in 2023, ending in an Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. The Sooners are well ahead of the national average in experience on both sides of the ball, which is great news for a set of new coordinators.
The offense will be called by former North Texas head coach and Air Raid tree disciple Seth Littrell.
The trench will be under a microscope after losing every starter, but line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is one of the best in the business, and he inherits just as many snaps of experience thanks to the transfer portal.
Center Branson Hickman transfers in from SMU after racking up the eighth-best at his position in all of college football. Guard Febechi Nwaiwu follows Litrell from the Mean Green after being graded in the top 100 of all guards.
The most important aspect of the offensive line cohesion is a great opening schedule, as the Sooners will host Temple, Houston and Tulane before conference play starts.
QB Jackson Arnold, LB Danny Stutsman Will Play Key Roles
Sophomore Jackson Arnold takes over at quarterback after a tepid showing in the Sooners' bowl loss. The five-star blue-chip signal-caller has plenty to live up to when considering his recruiting profile.
With new sideline tablets and helmet communication in play, Venables thinks his quarterback will have a real advantage on the field.
“It can be a real competitive advantage to me offensively to be able to be in the ear of the quarterback 15 seconds prior to snapping the ball,” he said.
Arnold will be surrounded by a number of top skill position players in the SEC, starting with running back Gavin Sawchuk. The portal also provided one of the most explosive targets in college football in Deion Burks from Purdue.
Purdue might have their next great WR with Deion Burks.
Insane three-level display on this long touchdown reception! Energetic release and slant work, effortless extension, and the RAC ability to seal the deal.
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) September 2, 2023
The defense will be the most complete unit Venables has had since coming to Norman from Clemson.
The return of middle linebacker Danny Stutsman is a game-changer for the Sooners. Oklahoma had a plethora of tackling issues under former coordinator Ted Roof except for Stutsman, who missed 11 tackles in 722 snaps played.
Co-defensive coordinators Todd Bates and Zac Alley get a linebacker who acts as a team captain on the field, signaling in plays, calling blitz audibles and lining up new defensive line pieces like nose tackle Damonic Williams from TCU.
Considering video technology is available on the sidelines in between each series, the Venables-Stutsman connection should continue to thrive.
Huge change in College Football. Tablets will be used on the sideline with TV, End Zone and All-22 feeds
The NFL gets four screenshots. College Football will be multiple LIVE VIDEO on the sidelines pic.twitter.com/1491GsJw8L
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) July 9, 2024
After an early October bye week, the schedule begins to strengthen starting with the Red River Rivalry. Meanwhile, the second half of the schedule rounds out with road trips to Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, along with a visit from Alabama.
Oklahoma will be favored in seven games. The toughest part of the schedule projects the Sooners as underdogs of no more than a touchdown against some of the biggest names in the sport.
Despite the win total rising in the market from 7 to 7.5, the win total over is the best investment. Action Network projects Oklahoma at 7.8 wins on the season.
Pick: Oklahoma Over 7.5 (-110)
A fever has hit Good Ol' Rocky Top, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava has seen movement in the Heisman market down to 15-1.
Head coach Josh Heupel has a quarterback who can run the Volunteers' stretch spread offense that relies on timing routes and explosive receivers.
"We expect [Iamaleava] to play at a really high level from the very beginning,” Heupel said.
Wide receiver Squirrel White returns after playing 359 snaps in the slot and leading the team in targets a season ago. Although Dont’e Thornton is light on experience through three seasons, the former Oregon Duck has averaged well over two yards per route run in each season.
The question remains whether or not the offensive line can protect Iamaleava. The quarterback was harassed in the Citrus Bowl against Iowa, which racked up 12 pressures on 19 passing attempts.
The offensive line is dominated by seniors and will trot out LSU transfer Lance Heard to protect Iamaleava’s blind side.
Nico Iamaleava put on a show at the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl 😮💨🍊@Vol_Football | #SECNTakeoverpic.twitter.com/OLDb23Y4Tf
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) July 5, 2024
The defense comes in just below the national average in terms of experience, returning 60% of tackles, pass breakups and stops from a season ago.
The secondary was completely wiped in the two-deep depth chart. A collection of portal players arrive in Knoxville from Middle Tennessee, Oregon State, Temple and other programs with hopes of becoming an SEC-level back seven.
The good news for the Vols defense is the return of first-team all-SEC edge rusher James Pearce Jr. The junior ranked as the No. 1 overall edge in terms of pass-rush productivity last season, recording 51 pressures and 13 sacks.
Is Tennessee a College Football Playoff Contender?
Schedule-wise, Knoxville will be known as Blowout City in nonconference play. The full schedule has the Volunteers favored in nine games, including spots as touchdown favorites at Arkansas and at home against Kentucky. It's worth noting that Heupel has gone 5-1 against the spread coming off a bye week since 2021.
The biggest hurdle comes in a trio of games against Oklahoma, Alabama and Georgia. Considering the playmakers at receiver for those three teams, Tennessee will have issues winning two of its three underdog spots.
Tennessee's projected win total falls closer to eight than nine, giving plenty of value to a bet that goes against the market steam.
The secondary may be the Achilles' heel of this team, considering the number of capable offenses and quarterbacks on the schedule like Grayson McCall at NC State and Graham Mertz at Florida.
While the win total under is the play, the better bet comes in the "To Make the College Football Playoff" market. I'm willing to wager that Tennessee doesn't break into the upper echelon of the SEC and make the playoff in the conference's first season of expansion.
An open parlay featuring Alabama and Georgia at their projected spreads against Tennessee comes out to -220 — the exact number in the market for the Volunteers to miss the CFP.
Pick: Tennessee to Not Make College Football Playoff (-220)
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mis.png)
Ole Miss Rebels
SEC: +600 · Win Total: 9.5
No team dominated the transfer portal like Ole Miss. Head coach Lane Kiffin brings the best talent in the nation to nearly every starting position. The final TARP tally on Ole Miss resulted in one of the highest offensive grades in the country, boosting a power rating that's now within 10 points of Georgia.
Jaxson Dart returns at quarterback after his most successful season yet.
The former USC quarterback threw a career-high 23 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions on 361 pass attempts. The big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio back up the improvement, as Dart’s passes between 10 and 19 yards skyrocketed in efficiency.
Now, the most dangerous weapons in the country will look for targets from the fourth-year quarterback.
The list of pass-catchers on the team reads more like a who’s who of all-star receivers, starting with holdover Jordan Watkins, who hauled in 53 passes last season. Antwane "Juice" Wells from South Carolina and Tre Harris from Louisiana Tech round out the starters, as both transfers have a career average of at least 2.5 yards per route run.
Outside of the wide receiver group, the offensive line returns more than 200 starts in the two-deep depth chart. Guard Nate Kalepo arrives from Washington, where the offensive line won the Joe Moore Award.
Ole Miss Defense Also Filled With Transfers
The defense is just as infiltrated with transfers as the offense, starting with wrecking ball Walter Nolen from Texas A&M. Kiffin also raided the roster of conference foe Florida, taking its best defensive player in outside linebacker Princely Umanmielen.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding’s nickel defense will flash Arkansas' Chris "Pooh" Paul at middle linebacker and South Alabama's Yam Banks at nickel.
The individual pieces create the most Havoc-minded and efficient defense in the nation. But collectively, all eyes will be on the team's cohesiveness during a soft nonconference schedule.
The Rebels will be comfortable favorites in 10 games. However, their College Football Playoff and SEC Championship hopes hinge on an Oct. 12 game against LSU and a Nov. 9 matchup against Georgia.
Ole Miss has won in Baton Rouge just once since 2002, but the Rebels project within a touchdown underdog now. Unfortunately for them, they'll be on back-to-back travel when facing the Tigers.
The Georgia game is the biggest on Ole Miss' schedule, as the Rebels were throttled in a 35-point loss last season. Dart proved to be successful in outside zone reads against the Bulldogs' defense, but Georgia returns more than 80% of experience in every statistical category.
The Game of the Year market may provide a better investment instead of the conference and playoff futures that depend on two underdog spots.
Florida plays the toughest schedule in the nation, facing three teams off a bye week in the month of November. One of those teams is Ole Miss, which receives a bye after the Georgia game before heading to Gainesville on Nov. 23.
The Gators' depth could be in critical condition before their 11th game, coming off consecutive contests against Georgia, Texas and LSU.
Pick: Game of the Year: Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Florida (Nov. 23)
The surprise team of 2023 turned out to be an SEC East squad that was projected to finish .500 on the season.
Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz entered last season without a winning record during his time in Columbia, but his team quickly jetted into the AP Top 25 after five consecutive victories. The Tigers then took a fourth-quarter lead against LSU before suffering their first loss of the season.
Only one other blemish would hit Mizzou all season: a covering effort in a November trip to Athens to face Georgia.
A Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State ended Missouri's best season since Dan Devine won the Orange Bowl in 1960 for an undefeated season.
Can Missouri Compete in SEC?
There's every expectation of an encore in Columbia, as the biggest contributors on offense all return with a boost from the transfer portal.
Quarterback Brady Cook thrived under new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, finishing with 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
Meanwhile, Luther Burden III moved from wideout to slot, becoming the most explosive option on the team with more than 1,200 receiving yards and an ultra-explosive 3.3 yards per route run.
Malik Nabers vs Luther Burden III – 2023 SZN
YPRR – vs MAN – vs ZONE
Malik Nabers 3.81 – 3.24 – 4.84
Luther Burden III 3.50 – 3.44 – 4.06YAC – YAC/REC
MN – 580 – 6.7
LB – 718 – 8.7SLT%
MN – 53.6
LB – 81.7MTF
MN – 30
LB – 20 pic.twitter.com/E6ZS0nX1xW— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) April 8, 2024
Although running back Cody Schrader departs for the NFL, Drinkwitz dipped into the portal for two of the Sun Belt's best running backs. Georgia State's Marcus Carroll and Appalachian State's Nate Noel have migrated to Columbia after combining for more than 2,100 rushing yards a season ago.
The defense could have as many issues as last season's team after finishing outside the top 100 in explosives allowed and opponent points per scoring opportunity.
Missouri returns just over 50% of counting statistics with remaining personnel.
New defensive coordinator Corey Batoon arrives from South Alabama, running a strict 3-3-5 with plenty of Cover 3. Batoon is expected to stay aggressive after sending blitz on 34% of snaps for the Jaguars last season.
However, Drinkwitz's main worry lies elsewhere.
“I'm more concerned about us eliminating explosive plays,” he said at SEC Media Days.
The defensive line adds help with a handful of transfers from Power Four schools, while the secondary went through a complete reset.
How Far Can Tigers Go?
Missouri will be a heavy favorite in at least nine games, making the Tigers contenders to not only compete for a conference championship but a spot in the College Football Playoff as well.
Drinkwitz's team will be a clear underdog in only one game: an Oct. 26 trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama. Missouri will be coming off a bye week in its two most questionable remaining games — coin-flips against Texas A&M and Oklahoma — making this the most conducive schedule in the SEC in terms of contending for a conference title.
The win total projection falls at 9.4, correlating to an 8.5% chance to win the conference. The value resides on Missouri to win the SEC at any number greater than 11-1.
There are only two offenses on the SEC schedule that have the ability to expose the Tigers' declining back seven on defense — Alabama and Oklahoma in consecutive games.
With Texas or Georgia expected to play in the championship game, Missouri’s ceiling this season is an appearance in Atlanta for the conference title.
Beware of taking conference futures, though, as we'd need large hedge spaces against the Bulldogs or Longhorns. That leaves an SEC title game appearance as the best investment.
Pick: Missouri to Make SEC Championship (+500)
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/lsu.png)
LSU Tigers
SEC: +1000 · Win Total: 9.5
Head coach Brian Kelly has won 20 games during his two seasons in Baton Rouge, but there's an undertone that LSU has underachieved since Ed Orgeron left the program in 2021.
Massive portal hauls and consistent changes to the coaching staff generally indicate that a program is treading hard to stay above water, but for the Tigers, this is the new normal every offseason.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock was considered to be one of the best OCs in college football but exited LSU to take the same role at Notre Dame.
To maintain consistency, Kelly elected to promote from within. Now, quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan and passing game coordinator Cortez Hankton are only expected to change the offense around a new starting quarterback.
Garrett Nussmeier Set to Lead LSU Offense
In this current landscape of NIL and transfer portal madness, Garrett Nussmeier may have a claim as the most patient quarterback in history.
The junior retained his redshirt and didn't play in the 2021 Texas Bowl. Then, in a matter of months, Jayden Daniels transferred in during spring 2022 to be the full-time quarterback and future Heisman winner while Nussmeier waited for his turn.
Now, the cannon-armed signal-caller will take over starting duties after showing flashes of greatness in a backup role and as a starter in a victory over Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Just a reminder that Garrett Nussmeier was doing this as a Freshman pic.twitter.com/BnAIvuv67A
— NBATigahBoy🐯 (@NBATIGAHBOY) July 2, 2024
The offensive line might be one of the best in the country, bookended by two all-SEC selections in Emery Jones and Will Campbell. The unit ranked top-20 in pass blocking last season. Now, LSU is predicted to shift more to the air in standard downs after posting a 52% rush rate last season.
Kyren Lacy will take over as the No. 1 target in the passing game after lining up for more than 150 snaps in the slot and out wide.
None of the returning players from a season ago have the explosive indicators, but the transfer portal provided the best target from a Liberty team that made the Fiesta Bowl. CJ Daniels posted 3.9 yards per route run for the Flames last year, nearly doubling the mark for what's considered an explosive target.
Tigers Defense Must Improve
Last season, the defense held LSU back from another run at an SEC Championship and national title.
The Tigers opened the season allowing Florida State to gain over 500 yards in a three-touchdown rout by the Seminoles. LSU allowed 28 points or more in six of its eight SEC games last season, ranking 125th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
New defensive coordinator Blake Baker takes the position after leading Missouri's defense to the Cotton Bowl. Baker ran a strict 3-3-5 defense at Missouri, similar to LSU’s base last season. However, that base pivoted from a 3-3-5 to a 3-4 depending on down and distance.
The biggest news is the expected move for Harold Perkins from middle linebacker back to outside the tackle box. After a poor sophomore campaign as a mike backer, Perkins will move back outside to roam and create a one-man Havoc crew like he did as a freshman in 2022.
“We had an issue relative to his weight gain, and we didn't feel like that really was his best position to be inside," Kelly said. "[Perkins is] over 220 pounds and physically strong enough to handle the rigors of inside and out.”
LSU projects to win 9.9 games this season with 6.2 coming in SEC play. The Tigers will be a favorite of a touchdown or more in nin games this season.
The toughest competition will be in two home games against Alabama and Ole Miss, while an Oct. 26 date at Kyle Field against Texas A&M will put the Tigers on back-to-back road travel.
The conference schedule is kind without Texas and Georgia, but an opening game against USC will test an unproven secondary. Meanwhile, the defense's first taste of SEC play comes against a South Carolina offense that's expected to run heavy RPO with a dual-threat quarterback.
Texas A&M and Vanderbilt also have offenses that may not be capable of producing explosives downfield, so an SEC win total over is the best investment for the Tigers.
Pick: LSU Over 5.5 SEC Conference Wins (+120)
The biggest mystery in the SEC is what we'll see from Alabama in the post-Nick Saban world.
The legendary head coach retired after a heartbreaking national semifinal loss in the Rose Bowl to eventual national champion Michigan. The Crimson Tide were quick to hire Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer as the new man in charge after a run to the national title game.
The market quickly reacted negatively to Alabama’s numbers, taking into account portal departures and the quick exit of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to the Seattle Seahawks.
Now, the question is if one of the best offensive minds in the nation can keep Alabama as the standard in college football.
Offensive personnel is where the biggest questions fall, namely the wide receiver and lineman groups.
The trench has been a consistent issue for the Crimson Tide in recent years, failing to protect any quarterback under center in passing downs. Yet, they improved a season ago with a top-50 rank in pass blocking and a top-25 rank in Stuff Rate.
After transferring to Iowa for a couple of months, blindside tackle Kadyn Proctor returns to anchor the line.
DeBoer reached through the Washington pipeline for center Parker Brailsford, the 11th-highest graded at his position as a freshman for the Huskies a season ago. The low snaps to the quarterback that may have ended Alabama's season in the Rose Bowl should be resolved in 2024.
QB Jalen Milroe, HC Kalen DeBoer Form Perfect Pairing
Quarterback Jalen Milroe enters his junior season as one of the most fascinating players in the country. However, the question remains if he'll fit with DeBoer's offense.
The Crimson Tide are expected to pull back on a rush rate of 63%. For reference, the Huskies ran the ball just 42% last season.
Alabama consistently split between 11 and 12 personnel in 2023, but DeBoer prefers a strict 11 personnel with Air Raid and spread concepts, including vertical shots.
The marriage between DeBoer's offensive deep route approach and Milroe’s deep ball skill set could produce a Heisman candidate.
Milroe had fascinating numbers in terms of passing depth. Any throw between 10-19 yards was a disaster for the dual-threat quarterback, producing seven turnover-worthy plays to just one big-time throw.
When he was allowed to aim at deep targets over 20 yards, though, the Katy, Texas, native racked up 26 big-time throws and recorded a grand total of zero mistakes.
Alabama needed a touchdown to go ahead with minutes remaining against Auburn. Jalen Milroe had all the time in the world and managed this incredible pass to Isaiah Bond. Roll Tide! pic.twitter.com/DQPJHCs1Hq
— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) November 26, 2023
While the offensive system will be different in the transition from Tommy Rees to DeBoer, the passing routes are nothing new for Milroe. Alabama's top three routes were crossers, outs and hitches, while Washington ran those routes exclusively.
The weapons for Milroe will determine if the deep ball can continue for the Tide.
Kobe Prentice returns after posting an explosive 2.6 yards per route run, and he's joined by Washington target Germie Bernard. The transfer played a key role in DeBoer’s heavy usage of wide receiver screens, which are an expected wrinkle for Alabama's offense.
With Grubb off to the NFL, DeBoer has handed the offensive reins to Nick Sheridan, who has been on DeBoer’s staff from the Indiana days. There's plenty of continuity in the coaching staff.
Kane Wommack Joins Alabama Staff
The defensive staff was assembled outside of Washington, as DeBoer hired one of the best defensive minds in the Group of Five in former South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack. The former Jaguars head coach was on staff with DeBoer during the 2020 pandemic season as Indiana's defensive coordinator.
Wommack’s 3-3-5 nickel defense — which is similar in personnel to the 2023 Crimson Tide — has long given Power Five teams plenty of trouble. South Alabama held Oklahoma State and running back Ollie Gordon II to just one score last year and lost to UCLA by a single point in 2022.
Alabama finished as the top team in the nation in coverage grading, per PFF.
The Tide welcome back shutdown slot cornerback Malachi Moore, who allowed just eight touchdowns in more than 1,200 career coverage snaps.
![college football-odds-picks-lsu tigers vs alabama crimson tide-betting-saturday november 4](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/mmoore1.jpg)
The defensive front lost a few key edge rushers, but don't expect a drop in production. Nose guard Tim Smith returns after 17 run stops a season ago, while edge Tim Keenan III was highly ranked by PFF in pass rush productivity.
The schedule is not easy in DeBoer's initial season in Tuscaloosa, drawing several of the best teams in the conference. Half of the SEC schedule will come off a bye week to face Alabama, including Georgia, Vanderbilt, LSU and Oklahoma.
Alabama will be a double-digit favorite in nine games this season, with LSU and Oklahoma projecting as underdogs of under a touchdown.
DeBoer will visit his old Big Ten stomping grounds with a trip to Wisconsin's Camp Randall Stadium on Sept. 14 before a two-week break to prepare for Georgia.
The Crimson Tide's projection lands at 9.9 wins, well over the market number of 9.5 with plus-money juice. With Alabama projected as a favorite in 11 games, a win total over wager would have numerous November hedge spots if needed.
Not only is a win total in play, but an SEC Championship appearance comes into view when the best offensive mind in college football meets the best deep-ball passer in the nation.
Pick: Alabama Over 9.5 (+120) · Alabama to Win SEC Championship (+800)
![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tex.png)
Texas Longhorns
SEC: +320 · Win Total: 10
Steve Sarkisian was hired to help Texas reach its ultimate goal: a first-ever College Football Playoff berth, and ultimately, a spot in the National Championship.
Those requirements were nearly fully satisfied last season with a Big 12 title and a spot in the Sugar Bowl — national semifinal game. However, a secondary that had consistent issues the entire season was blitzed by a Washington offense led by a number of names that now reside in the NFL.
Texas Looks to Keep Building in SEC
The goals remain the same, but the difficulty for Texas has been ratcheted up with its move to the SEC.
Sarkisian will have the best offense in his fourth year as head coach, returning more than 90% of offensive experience. While most college football teams struggle to build depth, Texas is one of just a few rosters with a solid two-deep that would start at any other program in the country.
Quinn Ewers made an elite jump at quarterback a season ago, cutting his turnover-worthy play rate while increasing his NFL rating with a top-20 rank in catchable throw rate.
The running back room loses its leading rusher in Jonathon Brooks, but CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue bring over 1,000 yards rushing and eight touchdowns from 2023.
The offensive line is one of the most experienced and deep units in the country. The addition of former Alabama wide receiver Isaiah Bond will give Ewers an elite burner with more than 250 career snaps at slot and wideout.
Texas WR Isaiah Bond is going to be a PROBLEM ⭐️
(@isaiahbond_ /@TexasLonghorns)
pic.twitter.com/2k6Jh6ysFm— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) July 9, 2024
The defense has similar talent and depth. Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's 4-2-5 stop unit returns more than 80% of tackles and nearly all of its pass breakups from a season ago.
Clemson transfer Andrew Mukuba brings plenty of experience to the safeties, while Jay’Vion Cole was graded as one of the nation's best cornerbacks at San Jose State last season.
Pressuring the quarterback may not be as easy from the interior with the loss of T’Vondre Sweat, but UTSA's Trey Moore will give the edge position a boost after the unit finished 11th in pass rush in 2023.
Texas executed after years of recruiting, staff changes and portal additions in the last season of the Big 12. However, this season in the SEC could have some chop.
Sarkisian’s offense continues to struggle in scoring position. Last season, Texas ranked 72nd in Finishing Drives — a statistic that looks at points per scoring opportunity, defined by an offensive drive that crosses the opponent's 40-yard line. Sarkisian has long struggled to post a number in the upper half of FBS, averaging 3.8 points per trip in 2023.
Texas also finished 120th in red-zone touchdown scoring last season. Sarkisian noted that the departures of Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson took Texas' goal-line wildcat package away, which could play a role in the Longhorns' struggles.
Red River Hangover May Cause Problems
The schedule also brings trouble, particularly around the Red River Rivalry as the Longhorns continue their storied rivalry with Oklahoma on Oct. 12 at the Cotton Bowl.
Texas has perennially struggled in the game after Red River, beating Houston by just a possession even after a bye week last season. In 2022, Texas narrowly escaped defeat against Iowa State, while it lost to Oklahoma State in 2021.
Red River produces a significant hangover for the Longhorns each season, which is bad news for Texas considering it now faces Georgia the week after.
The schedule is tricky in a few spots. For example, UT faces a talented UTSA team the week after traveling to Michigan. The Longhorns will also make a trip to Fayetteville to face an Arkansas team coming off a bye week.
Texas' projected win total lands at 10.4, giving minimal value to the under. There are land mines all over the schedule, including the renewal of a rivalry with Texas A&M at Kyle Field to close the regular season.
Pick: Texas Alt. Team Total Under 9.5 (+160)
When the first version of TARP was produced in February, one team jumped off the page: the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia was denied a spot in the College Football Playoff after an SEC Championship loss to Alabama, ending its hopes of a third consecutive national title.
Georgia Has Loaded Roster Once Again
The Bulldogs pulled one of the highest rankings in returning experience, capturing more than 85% in every statistical category, from returning players to transfer portal additions.
Georgia won't miss a beat despite the loss of tight end cheat code Brock Bowers, its top two rushers and its leading tackler on defense.
Quarterback Carson Beck returns with a full deck of weapons and a shot to make a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony.
Head coach Kirby Smart raided the portal and snagged all-purpose back Trevor Etienne from Florida and tight end Benjamin Yurosek from Stanford.
Etienne is one of the most elusive skill-position players in the country, averaging an outrageous 4.1 yards after contact on 120 rushing attempts last year.
Etienne's sidestep might be the best in the country — and good enough to be featured in the trailer for EA Sports College Football 25.
The new EA College Football 25 gameplay trailer shows Trevor Etienne scoring against Florida👀 pic.twitter.com/iLt0Rc4OYF
— Elite Georgia Football (@elitegeorgiacfb) May 31, 2024
Yurosek, a fifth-year senior, enters the year as one of the most explosive tight ends in terms of yards per route run.
The former Stanford standout lines up everywhere on the field, including in-line, in the slot and out wide. He's expected to fill the infamous Bowers role.
The wide receiver unit returns Rara Thomas and Dominic Lovett, but the addition of Colbie Young from Miami provides Beck with an exclusive deep-shot target.
Feature Colbie Young more. It's simple for Miami.pic.twitter.com/zymQVadC3m
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 1, 2023
The NFL didn't completely empty the Bulldogs' defensive roster for the first time in a number of years. Georgia returns nine of its top 13 tacklers under coordinator Glenn Schumann, who now shares the title with former Alabama cornerbacks coach Travaris Robinson.
The focus of the defense will turn to the nickel position, with Smart emphasizing just how important the position will be at SEC Media Days.
“We have some experience in the safety position between Dan [Jackson] and Malachi [Starks], but it will be nickel position and the depth at those positions that's really critical,” he said.
No changes are expected from a scheme or personnel perspective, as Georgia will field a 3-3-5 with plenty of quarters coverage.
A 33% blitz rate in 2023 generated a high rate of success, creating a negative play on 12% of all opponent snaps.
![](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/07/georgiadef.png)
Bulldogs Favored in Every Game
Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss are the only games on the schedule in which the Bulldogs will be favored by single digits.
However, the Longhorns are expected to work through a Red River hangover on Oct. 19, while Ole Miss will try to close the gap after taking a 35-point loss to Georgia last season.
The Crimson Tide may be the best suited to upset the Bulldogs, considering Kalen DeBoer’s offensive philosophy and Jalen Milroe’s deep-ball skills. But even then, a loss wouldn't end hopes for a conference title.
Georgia has an embarrassment of riches at every single position. Depth will be a key factor in surviving the new College Football Playoff format, and the Bulldogs have that in spades.
No team in the country is more prepared for a national title run than Georgia. And after missing out on a third consecutive national title last season, Smart will have his team motivated.
Pick: Georgia to Win National Championship (+300)
![Header First Logo](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/SEC-conference-logo-200.png)
SEC Best Bets & Futures
- Vanderbilt: Over 3
- Arkansas: + 11 vs. Texas A&M (Game of the Year)
- Mississippi State: Over 4 (-150)
- South Carolina: Under 5.5 (-105)
- Florida: Under 4.5 (+130)
- Kentucky: Under 6.5 (-115)
- Auburn: Over 3.5 SEC Wins (+105)
- Texas A&M: Notre Dame +1 vs. Texas A&M (Game of the Year)
- Oklahoma: Over 7.5 (-110)
- Tennessee: To Not Make College Football Playoff (-220)
- Ole Miss: -6.5 vs. Florida (Game of the Year)
- Missouri: To Make SEC Championship (+500)
- LSU: Over 5.5 SEC Wins (+120)
- Alabama: Over 9.5 (+120) · To Win SEC Championship (+800)
- Texas: Alt. Team Total Under 9.5 (+160)
- Georgia: To Win National Championship (+300)
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