Florida State and Louisville square off in the ACC Championship Game with significant implications Saturday night.
Florida State is on the verge of its first College Football Playoff appearance in years, but an injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis late in the season may ruin its chances.
Meanwhile, Jeff Brohm has easily navigated the ACC in his first year. However, the Cardinals benefitted from an easy schedule that helped them reach 10-2.
Correlation is crucial when looking to build a same-game parlay. I have four picks on this game that are strongly correlated, creating a solid parlay at tremendous plus-money odds.
Without further delay, let’s jump into my reasonings for these picks and how they are all connected.
Florida State vs. Louisville Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
Louisville ML
This pick is the start of an obvious storyline.
Florida State has had a storybook season, and this was shaping up to be the culminating moment for Travis, taking home the ACC crown and punching the Seminoles’ ticket to the playoffs.
But with Travis on this shelf, Tate Rodemaker is thrust into action. He has limited experience in his college football career, mostly in mop-up duty and without much success.
Last weekend was the most we have seen from Rodemaker in his career, and if he plays like that again (12-for-25, 134 yards), it doesn’t bode well for Florida State.
Florida State managed just a 15th-percentile Success Rate and 3.96 yards per play against Florida. Neither the rushing nor the passing game was effective, with the Seminoles finishing below average in EPA per Rush and EPA per Pass.
Louisville isn't among the nation's best teams, but the Cardinals are still a tough squad. The defense is ranked 31st nationally by ESPN's SP+ numbers. They're 14th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 13th in Havoc generated. They've fared well against the run and the pass, ranking 16th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 18th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
I'm aware this line already reflects what the market believes Travis is worth, but I think his absence is even more significant.
Without him, I don't expect an inspired fight from Florida State and instead believe that the Cardinals roll to an ACC Championship victory.
Under 46.5
I already don't believe Florida State will be lighting up the scoreboard this weekend, but Louisville may face a similar fate.
The Cardinals rank 18th in Rush Success Rate and 11th in Pass Success Rate but only 54th in Finishing Drives and 47th in Havoc allowed. These are strong-ish numbers on the surface, but Louisville has faced a relatively easy schedule, inflating the metrics.
Florida State’s defense is still loaded, and I believe they keep Louisville in check for much of the game. The Seminoles rank 12th nationally in Success Rate allowed, 18th in Finishing Drives allowed and sixth in Havoc generated.
The Seminoles rank only 31st nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, but they shine against the pass, ranking second in Pass Success Rate allowed and seventh in Pass PPA allowed.
I don't think Florida State's defense will compensate enough for its offensive deficiencies and keep Louisville under its team total.
However, I think the defense is strong enough to keep Louisville from blowing the Seminoles out entirely or pushing the game total over.
Trey Benson Under 90.5 Rush Yards
With Travis out, this is Trey Benson's moment to shine.
He saw an increased workload last week, taking 19 carries for 95 yards and three scores. I'd expect Benson's workload to remain relatively stable, with between 12 and 16 carries.
Unfortunately for FSU, I don't expect him to put up a big performance.
He's rushed for over 90 yards only three times this season. And I expect Florida State to be playing from behind, so the Seminoles will be forced to throw the ball more than last week. So, don't expect Benson to get the "bell-cow" treatment.
As mentioned, Louisville's rush defense is strong. The Cardinals rank 35th nationally in Pro Football Focus's Rush Defense grades, 16th in Rush Success Rate allowed, and 12th in Rush PPA allowed despite facing the 14th-highest rate of rush plays of any team.
Benson won't get a huge workload with Florida State playing from behind, and Louisville's rush defense should limit his efficiency, resulting in him staying under 90 yards.
Johnny Wilson Over 3.5 Receptions
If Florida State is trailing, they will likely throw the ball more.
But even if they don’t, Johnny Wilson is still vital in the Seminole aerial attack.
He's recorded four or more catches in seven of eight games where he's had targets this year. The only exception was the North Alabama game, where Travis went down early, and the starters were benched in a blowout. Even then, Wilson still had three catches.
Last week, Rodemaker tipped his hand and showed that he loved looking Wilson’s way. Wilson led the team with six targets and caught all of them for 64 yards.
Wilson has a solid chance to lead the team in receptions once again, and with the possibility of playing from behind, 3.5 is too low for one of the best receivers in the country.
Florida State vs. Louisville Same Game Parlay
- Louisville ML
- Under 46.5
- Trey Benson Under 90.5 Rush Yards
- Johnny Wilson Over 3.5 Receptions
Parlay Odds: +802 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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