Air Force vs San Diego State Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -106 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -132 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -114 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
Air Force looks to stop San Diego State's win streak when they head to Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday night.
Air Force is sitting at 8-3, but all three of their losses have come in conference play, so they will not be going to the Mountain West Championship game.
The triple option has been highly effective this season at not only moving the ball but controlling games, and that is exactly what they will look to do against San Diego State.
The Aztecs offense has been revitalized in the past few games, putting up a combined 77 points against San Jose State and New Mexico. San Diego State is 7-4 and has already secured a bowl bid, so there's not really much for them to play for in this game.
Additionally, facing the triple option is a completely different animal.
Air Force Falcons
Falcons Offense
Air Force is literally playing at the slowest pace in the country this season, averaging a play every 31.99 seconds. The triple option has been really effective at controlling possession, as the Falcons have the ball 60.2% of the time, which is the highest mark in the country.
Air Force's triple option has been incredibly efficient this season, ranking top-five in Offensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate Allowed, Power Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate.
Fullback Brad Roberts has been the main reason why Air Force's offense has been so effective, as he's averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has an 87.5 PFF rushing grade.
That was quick. Brad Roberts gets the party started for @AF_Football. pic.twitter.com/GIECXv5DkX
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 10, 2022
Haaziq Daniels has also been a good rusher himself from the quarterback position, averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 20 runs over 10+ yards. He's also been a great passer the few times that Air Force has decided to throw the ball, as he's averaging 9.8 yards per attempt.
Falcons Defense
The Air Force defense has been solid this season, allowing only 4.7 yards per play, ranking 66th in Success Rate Allowed and 58th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The strength of the Air Force defense is in their front seven, and they've done a good job at stopping the run. The Falcons allow only 3.6 yards per carry, ranking 48th in Rushing Success Rate and 36th in Defensive Line Yards.
Air Force also does a great job at forcing turnovers, getting sacks, and stopping plays in the backfield, as they rank 35th in Havoc, while San Diego State is 122nd in Havoc Allowed on offense.
The Falcons are also fantastic at getting teams off the field on third down, as they have the 19th lowest third down play percentage allowed and rank ninth in Power Success Rate Allowed.
The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, though, as the Falcons rank 98th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 87th in EPA/Pass allowed.
However, they don't typically allow a lot of big plays in the passing game, ranking 21st in explosive passing allowed.
San Diego State Aztecs
Aztecs Offense
One of the main reasons San Diego State's offense has come alive is quarterback Jalen Mayden, who has been on fire.
However, Mayden may be averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, but his PFF passing grade sits at just 77.2, and he has only five big-time throws compared to 10 turnover-worthy plays.
That's not good when you are facing an Air Force team that is 35th in Havoc.
San Diego State's offense, meanwhile, is built on its rushing attack. It runs the ball on 59% of its offensive plays. Its rushing attack has not been successful at all, though, as it ranks 112th in Rushing Success Rate, 105th in Offensive Line Yards and 86th in EPA/Rush.
So, if they aren't able to run the ball successfully against Air Force's front seven, that means Mayden is going to have to throw more often than he wants.
Azetcs Defense
San Diego State's defense has been good but nowhere near as good as it was last season. The Aztecs are 34th in success rate allowed and 46th in explosiveness allowed.
The Aztecs are just average in a lot of the key metrics you need to excel in against the triple option. They are 50th in stuff rate, 31st in Power Success Rate Allowed, and 53rd in Defensive Line Yards.
Additionally, they are struggling with the fundamentals, as they're 123rd in terms of a tackling grade, which is just about the worst thing against the triple option.
The Aztecs' secondary has been solid, allowing only 6.7 yards per attempt, and they have the 28th best coverage grade. However, every time Air Force throws the ball, not surprisingly, it's a deep shot; it's first in the nation in explosive passing, while San Diego State is 35th in explosive passing allowed.
Air Force vs San Diego State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Air Force and San Diego State match up statistically:
Air Force Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 60 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 108 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 22 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
San Diego State Offense vs. Air Force Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 98 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 102 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 74 | 123 |
| PFF Coverage | 45 | 28 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 45 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.8 (130) | 29.8 (125) |
| Rush Rate | 89.7% (1) | 61.1% (17) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Air Force vs San Diego State Betting Pick
With how dominant Air Force has been at controlling possession on offense, and given the fact that San Diego State is really average in a lot of key metrics defensively that you need to be good at to stop the triple option, I think there is some value on the Falcons.
Yes, San Diego State's offense has been awesome the past two weeks, but that was against San Jose State and New Mexico, Air Force is a whole different animal.
I have Air Force projected at -3.2, so I think there is a little bit of value on them on the moneyline at -125
Pick: Air Force ML -125 |
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