It's my honor and pleasure to write up the most disgusting matchup of the 2024 season. The 1-2 Air Force Falcons are traveling to Laramie, Wyoming, to take on the 0-4 Wyoming Cowboys.
The Pokes are arguably one of the worst Group of Five teams in the nation, and the Falcons aren't too far behind them.
Wyoming enters the game as a 4-point underdog, and the total is 34. This is the lowest total in any game so far in the 2024 season, and rightfully so.
Very few people in America will put this game on their main screen over Georgia vs. Alabama on Saturday night, but I was happy to dig into the matchup for the people.
Let's get to my Air Force vs. Wyoming predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Air Force vs Wyoming Prediction
- Air Force vs Wyoming Pick: Under 34
My Wyoming vs. Air Force best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Wyoming Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 34 -110 / -110 | -170 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 34 -110 / -110 | +142 |
- Air Force vs Wyoming Point Spread: Air Force -4 (-108) · Wyoming +4 (-112)
- Air Force vs Wyoming Total: Over/Under 34
- Air Force vs Wyoming Moneyline: Air Force -170 · Wyoming +142
Air Force vs Wyoming Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Needing a New Option
The Falcons have scored 10 points in September — that's not a typo.
In their last two games, the Falcons scored seven points against San Jose State and only three against Baylor.
The offense is less efficient than last season, and it's coming off of their bye week with a plus matchup.
Air Force runs the ball 79% of the time to rank second nationally in rush rate, which is unsurprising given its atypical triple-option offense.
The offensive metrics are terrible. The Falcons rank outside the top 100 in a number of key categories.
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
The biggest issue that grabbed my attention was their inability to form consistent drives and capitalize in opponent territory. If you're going to run a triple-option offense and be effective, you have to be better in these categories to be victorious against any opponent.
It would be fine if the Falcons were winning the time of possession each game and at least coming away from most of their drives with points, but that has yet to be the case.
Luckily for them, they're facing a top-to-bottom terrible football team, and maybe the bye week helped them figure out some of their offensive issues.
Defensively, Air Force has been unquestionably strong through three weeks. It ranks top-55 in both Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards.
However, with the defensive line struggling, the Falcons also sit outside the top 85 in Havoc and Defensive Passing Success Rate. The secondary hasn't been great either, which was one of their biggest strengths on defense last season.
The positive news is that they're facing one of the worst offenses in the entire FBS, so I expect them to play better in this matchup. The secondary is still a concern, but the Pokes rank 131st in Passing Success Rate offensively.
The bye week should help the Falcons figure some things out offensively, but there's no way I'm running to the window to lay points with them right now. Despite a great matchup, laying points with an offense that runs at a snail's pace and has yet to prove itself is never fun.
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Preview: Pace for No Reason
Laramie is a special place when the Pokes are a competent football team. When the sun goes down, bizarre things tend to happen at War Memorial Stadium — but not in 2024.
I keep hearing that quarterback Evan Svoboda is the next Josh Allen, and despite Allen's inconsistent career at Wyoming, I'm puzzled by what people are seeing on the field.
Through four games, Svoboda has a 44% completion percentage with only 463 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Not great.
The Pokes are outside of the bottom 120 in the following categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Finishing and Quality Drives
The offense runs the ball 57% of the time, so we should expect a lot of running clock from both of these offenses.
The Pokes are also 45th in tempo, which is bizarre given their inefficiency. The offense wants to go fast, but the only area of the field in which the Cowboys excel is when they rush to the sideline after another punt or turnover.
There's no telling what the offense will bring, but the Falcons have been stout against the run so far. The Pokes will have to win the game through Svoboda's arm, which is a scary proposition.
And to make matters worse, the defensive side of the ball has been just as frightening.
The Cowboys have been slightly below average against the run, but they've been torched in the secondary and bullied up front. The defensive line has created no pressure and ranks 124th in Havoc.
They've also been a turnstile when opponents get to their side of the field, ranking outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
Wyoming ranks 128th in PFF coverage, but the secondary might get the week off against a Falcons team that rarely throws the ball.
Given how bad both teams are on both sides of the ball, this could come down to which team protects the football the best.
The only positive news for the Pokes is they have the special teams edge, and a game with a low total often sets up for the kicking game to be the difference.
Air Force vs Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Air Force and Wyoming match up statistically:
Air Force Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 132 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 98 |  |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 126 | |
Wyoming Offense vs. Air Force Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 132 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 124 | 39 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 119 | 128 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 127 | 47 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 110 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (97) | 26.1 (45) |
| Rush Rate | 79% (2) | 57% (48) |
Air Force vs Wyoming Pick & Prediction
I can't make a case for either team here, especially with the Falcons offense in shambles. The total is low, but I could not care less.
In my eyes, there's no other play to make in the matchup than to bet the under. Both teams are going to run the ball a lot, even if they don't move the ball forward much.
The Pokes like to go uptempo, but that's not going to work with their offensive game plan against a Falcons defense that's strong against the run.
Air Force's offense gets a plus matchup, but it's struggled mightily in the red zone and has special teams issues that could cost it a lot of points.
Plus, neither defense creates Havoc, so there's a lower likelihood of turnovers creating shorter fields for the offenses.
I expect a brutally ugly game, and I hope we can avoid overtime and a 10-10 tie at the end of regulation. It's so gross, but of course, I'll have the game up on one of my screens on Saturday night. The under is the play.
Pick: Under 34 (Play to 31.5)
How to Watch Air Force vs Wyoming Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TVÂ /Â Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Air Force vs Wyoming Betting Trends
- Air Force has landed an even 95% of the tickets and 95% of the money.
- Lining up with our pick, the under has been the clear sharp side. It has taken 16% of the bets but generated 61% of the cash.
Air Force vs Wyoming Weather
