There are plenty of arguments when a college football event is called the "Game of the Century," a title familiar to the LSU and Alabama series.
We have another big one on Saturday when the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2 SEC) head to Death Valley for a Saturday night showdown against the LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-1) in what is essentially a College Football Playoff elimination game for Alabama.
The Tide have gotten the best of the Bayou Bengals of late, as LSU head coach Brian Kelly looks to lead his side to victory for just the 3rd time since 2011.
While a path to the SEC Championship remains intact for Alabama, the Tide find themselves in a must-win game after losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee following a huge win over Georgia. While LSU also has two losses, the difference is the Tigers have a nonconference loss to USC.
Alabama enters as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 58.5. So, where does the betting value lie in this top-of-the-line college football clash?
Let's dive into my Alabama vs. LSU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Prediction
- Alabama vs. LSU Pick: Alabama -2.5
My LSU vs. Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs. LSU Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -102 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -118 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Alabama vs. LSU Spread: Alabama +3, LSU -3
- Alabama vs. LSU Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Alabama vs. LSU Moneyline: Alabama ML -142, LSU ML +120
Alabama Football vs. LSU Football Betting Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Handicapping Alabama can be a tricky process, as the team cruised in nonconference play before doing the same in the most recent SEC game against Missouri.
With injuries all over the Tigers' offensive unit, the Crimson Tide defense kept Missouri off the scoreboard while allowing just 3.8 overall yards per play.
However, that data point can be thrown out, as the three-game stretch against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee may reveal more of Alabama's vulnerabilities.
The Volunteers more than doubled the national average in explosive drives, as the Crimson Tide secondary had no answers for Dont'e Thornton out of the slot and Dylan Sampson on the ground.
The Tide also committed 15 penalties for 115 yards — something that has been an issue all season, as Alabama ranks 128th in that area.
Vanderbilt posted nearly doubled the national average in available yards, racking up at least two first downs on eight of its nine offensive possessions. The Commodores' time of possession rose over 42 minutes while they gained 22 first downs.
South Carolina dominated on the ground, posting a 62% Success Rate on 35 attempts while doubling the national average in methodical drives.
In summary, Alabama struggled through that three-game stretch thanks to penalties and opponent offenses that utilized a rushing attack to create first downs and control the clock.
The Crimson Tide defense has been stellar in the opening game plan under coordinator Kane Wommack. Alabama has not allowed its opponent to score in the opening quarter in four of its five SEC games this season.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
LSU will enjoy home cooking after walking into a hornet's nest in Kyle Field two weeks ago. LSU took a 17-7 lead into halftime before Texas A&M switched gears and put an RPO quarterback under center.
The Aggies scored 31 points in the second half because LSU had no answers for Marcel Reed's zone read in the red zone.
The loss could be chalked up to a game plan that didn't account for a backup quarterback. After all, LSU has been decent against the run all season with numbers inside the top 40.
While the Tigers have been great against run concepts that include counter, LSU allows opponents a 56% Success Rate and positive EPA when they use inside zone read.
Edge defenders Savion Jones and Bradyn Swinson have graded much better against the pass than the run.
The offense has a clear identity with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looking to pass on 61% of snaps. In fact, the rushing attack was all but abandoned against Texas A&M after averaging 1.9 yards on just 21 attempts.
Nussmeier struggled severely against the Aggies, recording a season-high three turnover-worthy plays and three interceptions against Cover 1.
LSU continues to be one of the most methodical offenses in the country, ranking top-20 in quality drives but outside the top 100 in explosives.
LSU vs. Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Alabama match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. LSU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 42 | 73 | |
LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 12 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 87 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 46 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (77) | 27.4 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (52) | 39% (130) |
Alabama vs. LSU Best Bet and Pick
Alabama's play in the first quarter against top-tier SEC competition cannot be ignored. In fact, the Crimson Tide defense blanked Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri in the opening frame.
The Tide have allowed an average of 2.4 points in the first quarter this season, one of the best marks nationally. A wager on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter should be a part of the portfolio, especially considering other key areas.
LSU has been vulnerable against certain run concepts, specifically against inside zone. The Tigers have been great against counter, a concept Alabama uses on just 8% of rushing attempts. Unfortunately for LSU, the Crimson Tide's most heavily used concept is inside zone, generating a high 57% Success Rate and a positive EPA that produced a big play on 10% of attempts.
The ability to contain Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was key for South Carolina and Tennessee, but LSU has not shown the ability to play contain at the defensive edge position.
LSU has become one-dimensional on offense — an advantage for Alabama since it can minimize blitz against a stellar offensive line and drop more into coverage.
Alabama can stop the methodical drives from LSU's offense, ranking 12th defensively in opponent quality drives allowed.
The biggest advantage for Alabama comes in the ability to harass opponent passing targets, ranking 13th in contested catch rate. Nussmeier has not been one of the more accurate passers, leading LSU to a rank of 52nd in On-Target Rate.
Pick: Alabama First-Quarter ML · Alabama -2.5
Alabama vs. LSU Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Start Time, Location
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Alabama travels to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to face LSU on Saturday, Nov. 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Trends
- 67% of bets and 74% of the money are on Alabama to cover the spread
- 95% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on Alabama to win outright
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Alabama vs. LSU Weather Forecast
