Ole Miss vs Alabama Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Following last week’s crushing defeat in Baton Rouge, the Alabama Crimson Tide will again have to go on the road and face off against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama has won the last six meetings between these two teams and has had Ole Miss' number over the years, winning 16 of the last 18 against the Rebels.
Following the loss last week, Alabama is likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention unless chaos ensues over the next few weeks. However, it's still in a tight battle for the SEC West as it trails LSU and Ole Miss at this point.
The Rebels also fell to the Tigers earlier this season, so even if they were to pick up a win here, they would need LSU to drop another conference game in order to make it to Atlanta.
Alabama is in a trickier situation, as it would need LSU to lose both of its remaining conference games in order to have a chance at an SEC Championship berth.
Nick Saban coming off of a loss and in a must-win situation is typically a terrifying place to be in for his next opponent, but this Alabama team is not as fearsome as it once was.
Ole Miss has the pieces in place to potentially keep this game close and the score low.
Ole Miss Rebels
Rebels Offense
Ole Miss has been one of the best rushing teams in the entire country this season. It ranks 13th in Rushing Success Rate, 15th in PPA and 16th in explosiveness.
The Rebels’ rushing attack ranks eighth in the country according to PFF.
At the start of the year, they were led by Zach Evans, the former five-star running back who transferred from TCU. Evans is averaging 0.23 EPA per rush this season and 6.35 yards per carry.
However, this has turned into a two-headed monster with the emergence of freshman Quinshon Judkins. Judkins now leads the team in rushing with 1,051 yards and 13 touchdowns. Judkins is averaging 0.15 EPA per rush and 5.81 yards per carry.
Jaxson Dart has done a solid job of replacing the void left by Matt Corral. Dart has also been a threat on the ground with 520 yards and 0.26 EPA per rush this season. Through the air, he's averaging 0.14 EPA per dropback and has 1,810 passing yards on the season.
Ole Miss rushes at the seventh-highest rate in the country, but when they do pass, they rank 43rd in Success Rate, 50th in PPA and 25th in explosiveness.
Overall, this is one of the most explosive offenses in the country, especially when it can play with a lead and run the ball.
Rebels Defense
Ole Miss has been solid on defense but has also struggled mightily in some games. The Rebels ranked as the 31st-best unit by SP+ but are 78th in Success Rate.
The strongest part of this defense has been its ability to limit explosive run plays, which interestingly matches up well against the main strength of Alabama’s offense. Ole Miss comes in as the seventh-best team in the country in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Outside of this, things haven't gone well for this unit. They rank 70th in success rate against the pass and 97th against the run.
This defense will need to play better against Alabama than it has in the last few weeks. It luckily has a week of rest, but prior to the bye, it allowed 28 or more points in each of its last four games against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M.
Among those teams, LSU is the only one with a notable offense, and it scored 45 on this Rebels defense.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Crimson Tide Offense
The most surprising part of Alabama’s loss to LSU wasn’t that the Tigers was had a moderate amount of success against the Alabama defense, but rather that Bryce Young and this offense struggled to move the ball.
Alabama posted a Success Rate in just the 45th percentile to go along with and 5.74 yards per play (43rd percentile).
This has actually been a problem for longer than just this week, but it was partially credited to Young’s injury earlier this season.
However, there may be a larger problem with some component of this Crimson Tide offense, whether it be Young, Bill O’Brien, the inexperience of the wide receivers or something else.
Alabama ranks 39th in Offensive Success Rate, eighth in explosiveness and 24th in points per opportunity. Its passing game sits 30th in Success Rate and 42nd in PPA, which is a step behind where it's been in years past.
The rushing game has been worse as well, ranking 55th in Success Rate. However, the Tide do rank fifth in rushing explosiveness due to the home-run ability of running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
Not to make everything seem too negative, the Crimson Tide still have the sixth-best offense by SP+, but it has certainly taken a step back this season after what in achieved in years past.
Crimson Tide Defense
Similarly to the Alabama offense, this defense is still really good, but it's not where it once was. It's ranked ninth by SP+ and sits 20th in Defensive Success Rate.
The passing defense for the Crimson Tide has been their strength, ranking 14th in Success Rate and fifth in PPA.
Alabama will need its run defense to be up to the challenge against a run-heavy Ole Miss offense. Alabama’s run defense ranks 38th in Success Rate but 11th in PPA, as it's done well at defending explosive plays this season. This will come in handy against one of the more explosive rushing attacks in the country.
Alabama boasts the best rushing defense in the country, according to PFF’s run defense grade.
Ole Miss vs Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Alabama match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 70 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 14 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 43 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 48 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 46 | 12 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (46) | 20.7 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 48.9% (94) | 64.3% (9) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ole Miss vs Alabama Betting Pick
I’m not going to step in front of the train that is Saban following a loss, even if I do think this line might be a touch too high.
Alabama has a very good run defense and will be able to slow down this Ole Miss offense. That puts the game on the arm of Jaxson Dart, and I don’t see him finding success against Alabama’s secondary.
Ole Miss’ defense isn’t stellar, but I also don’t trust the direction that this Alabama offense has been going in this season. Something has been off with the Tide, and they just haven’t been as dominant as they have in the past.
With that said, my inclination is to take the under. Sixty-five points is a lot to expect in this game based on these two offenses.
Pick: Under 65 ⋅ Play to 63.5 |
