Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are the No. 1 ranked team in the country. The Tide (4-0, 1-0) rolled against Georgia and now have their eyes set on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
However, while the Commodores (2-2, 0-1) may be next on the schedule, it's possible Alabama may be reading its press clippings this week. Meanwhile, Vandy has looked much sharper than its preseason expectations and comes into this matchup after a narrow defeat against No. 7 ranked Missouri.
That said, let's get to my Alabama vs Vanderbilt predictions.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | -1800 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | +1000 |
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Point Spread: Alabama -22.5 (-110) · Vanderbilt +22.5 (-110)
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Total: Over/Under 54.5
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Alabama -1800 · Vanderbilt +1000
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Can Milroe Do It Again?
If it isn't apparent after last week, Alabama's offense is dynamic and one of the best in the country. It all starts with quarterback Jalen Milroe, who is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after he proved to be the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in the country.
If Milroe and company are sharp for this matchup, they shouldn't face much resistance through the air. Vandy ranks 88th in opponent completion percentage and 71st in yards per pass allowed.
However, Alabama has kept the ball on the ground nearly 60% of the time, and Vanderbilt has been much more stout against the run. The Commodores outrank the Crimson Tide 12 to 92 in rushing success rate and 25 to 87 in line yards.
So, this game may rest more on Milroe's arm than Alabama wants, and any inconsistencies or lapses in concentration could force the offense off the field.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Commodores Can Compete
There is no shortage of mobile quarterbacks in this matchup, as Diego Pavia has been excellent through the air and on the ground for the Commodores. Pavia has completed 64% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception.
Pavia's QBR of 72.3 ranks 33rd in the country, and his arm could keep the Commodores in this matchup. Since they will likely be trailing, Pavia and company will need to stretch the Alabama defense to open up things on the ground.
Vandy, much like Alabama, prefers to run the ball behind its mobile quarterback and lead running back. However, the likely game script will force it to get creative through the air.
Look for Pavia to use his mobility to buy time outside the pocket and scramble when able. While the Crimson Tide's defense is tough, we haven't been given a reason to doubt that Pavia can't lead the Commodores down the field against top-notch units.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 85 | |
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 33 |  |
| Line Yards | 80 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 8 | 69 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (86) | 29.6 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (28) | 65% (19) |
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Pick & Prediction
The market has bought in on the Commodores since this line opened. This is a letdown spot for Alabama after its huge win against Georgia.
Alabama can't afford to overlook Vanderbilt, and I'm expecting the Commodores to give the Crimson Tide a good fight and cover the spread.
Pick: Vanderbilt +22.5 | Play to +21.5
How to Watch Alabama vs Vanderbilt Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends
- Alabama is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS
- Vanderbilt is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS
- Alabama games are 3-1 to the Over
- Vanderbilt games are 4-0 to the Over
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Weather
