Some people will tell you same-game parlays are a scam, that they're designed to pull bettors into betting high odds on very specific wagers that are highly unlikely to hit. Some people will say that there's no value in betting same-game parlays.
They will tell you that sportsbooks always post the big winners to attract you and give you free play or risk-free same-game parlays because they're so unlikely to hit. Some would say that any person betting same-game parlays is a sucker.
Well, you know what? Those people, for the most part, are right. But there's nothing wrong with having a little fun, and there is value to be found in same-game parlays, specifically if lines are much lower on one book than they are everywhere else on the market.
It's the National Championship. It's the last game of the college football season. Why not have a little fun?
The most important part of building a same-game parlay is inserting plays you actually think can hit. Sure, neither team to score a touchdown in the third quarter and the game to go to overtime might be +100000, but it doesn't matter if it doesn't hit.
Bryce Young Over 12 Rushing Yards or Better
The first thing that caught my eye when looking at these lines was Bryce Young's rushing yards total.
Young's rushing total is set between 9-14 yards depending on the book. Young has recorded 10 or more yards in two of his last four games. And more importantly, Young has 77 carries on the season.
In Alabama's first game against Georgia, he recorded 40 rushing yards. This was due in large part to pressure from Georgia, which I think Young will once again face this week.
Slade Bolden Over 45 Receiving Yards or Better
With John Metchie III out for the season, his output has to transition to someone else. I think that someone else will be Slade Bolden, who's third on the team behind Metchie and Jameson Williams in receiving yards this season.
Another reason I think Bolden can have an impressive performance in the National Championship game is Georgia will look to shut down the Tide's leading receiver in Williams.
Bolden has 35 receptions for 364 yards on the season while also racking up three touchdowns along the way.
His yardage total is around 41 at most shops, a number he's hit only three times this season. But with the Georgia defense looking to shut down Williams, I think there's a huge upside on Bolden this game.
George Pickens Over 40 Receiving Yards or Better
Someone I think is being incredibly undervalued in the market is George Pickens. The Georgia receiver missed most of the season due to an ACL injury, but since returning against Georgia Tech, his snap count has slowly increased each week.
In Georgia's first game against Alabama, the Tide seemed to have no answer for the Bulldogs' leading receiver, tight end Brock Bowers. I don't think they will shut down Bowers by any means, but I do think the focus on him will allow for more opportunity for Pickens.
He also boasts a yardage total of just 34.5 at most shops, a number I feel he will surpass with ease.
Same Game Parlays With Alternate Lines
One common issue people seem to have with same-game parlays is adding too many legs, as we've all had that awful feeling of being just one away from a big hit.
Rather than tacking on a ton of legs to a SGP, I have found more success in sticking to the same plays but adding one large underdog that falls in line with my props, or using adjusted lines.
With that said I placed one unit on the standard three-leg same-game parlay on FanDuel at odds of +535 consisting of:
- Bryce Young over 10.5 rushing yards
- Slade Bolden over 41.5 receiving yards
- George Pickens over 34.5 receiving yards
I then placed a half-unit on the same tree, but added Bryce Young to score a touchdown at +410, bringing the odds to +3121.
And finally, on DraftKings I took adjusted lines on the three props:
- Bryce Young over 18 rushing yards
- Slade Bolden over 65 receiving yards
- George Pickens over 60 receiving yards
This brought my odds to +3000, which I placed a final half-unit on. Altogether, I will have two units on three same-game parlays with a potential 36.4 unit win.
Let's have some fun.
