Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina Odds
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 64.5 -115o / -105u | -154 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 64.5 -115o / -105u | +128 |
This is a massive game in the Sun Belt East — maybe the division's Game of the Year.
It’s on Thursday night in prime-time, opposite an NFL game and World Series action. But make no mistake — college football fans should be glued to this one.
It’s a critical matchup in an important division race, and it promises to be a high-scoring affair.
The Mountaineers are slight favorites on the road. Should you back a home dog, or is there a better play? Let’s take a look.
This season has been a long, strange journey for the Mountaineers.
From the preposterous, points-driven Week 1 loss to Drake Maye and North Carolina, to securing a historic upset in College Station, to hosting College GameDay and winning on a Hail Mary, to losing a massive upset at the hands of Texas State, Appalachian State has packed all of the thrills and spills of an entire decade of college football into two months.
After all of that, the Mountaineers have achieved some normalcy with wins in their last two over Georgia State and Robert Morris. They sit at 2-2 in conference play, firmly amid a large pack of two-loss teams in the division looking up at one-loss Coastal.
They can make their move Thursday night in a rivalry they've dominated.
The biggest reason for their rebound after the Texas State loss has been the resurgence of the running game. The Mountaineers have one of the best 1-2 running back punches in the country with Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel — and certainly the best in the Group of Five.
These two were injured and ineffective in the midseason swoon, and the loss in San Marcos was the nadir — Peoples didn’t travel, and Noel managed only 19 yards on the ground as the ‘Neers never got off the mat.
But the two are healthy and dominant again. They combined for 237 rushing yards in their last FBS win, a dominant 42-17 victory over Georgia State after a slow start and early 14-0 deficit.
The passing game with quarterback Chase Brice has been strong, although some luck has been involved.
Brice has been careless with the ball in his college career, tossing 30 career interceptions heading into this year. He's thrown just four this season, but he has 12 turnover-worthy plays and a higher turnover-worthy play percentage than last season. That bill could come due soon.
Even if App State turns the ball over a time or two in this matchup, it should still be expected to score plenty of points now that its stable of horses is at full strength against this forgiving Coastal defense.
On the other side of the ball, App’s defense has had a difficult season. Looking at two metrics that only focus on 2022 data against FBS opponents, App’s defense sits 92nd overall in Beta_Rank and 95th overall in Defensive EPA/Play. It hasn't always been pretty for the Mountaineers.
Teams can have sustained drives against the App defense. The Mountaineers rank 130th in Beta_Rank’s “drive efficiency” metric, preferring to prevent chunk yardage drives. They're 34th in stopping explosive drives.
That's fine with Coastal's offense, which will be perfectly content to move the ball with its spread triple-option look.
The Chanticleers entered this season as one of the prime candidates to challenge the division favorite Mountaineers.
They needed to replace large swaths of defensive production but had as strong an offensive identity as anyone in the Sun Belt behind future NFL quarterback Grayson McCall and head coach Jamey Chadwell’s inventive "triple-option" scheme.
It turns out they have needed every yard of offense they can get. The defense has cratered and enters as one of the worst in FBS.
The Chants will need to outscore the 'Neers to maintain their lead in this division and try to even a series in which they've fared poorly.
App State bounced Coastal in 2006 from its first-ever FCS Playoff appearance, kicking off a 7-1 series advantage. It’s been a 4-1 advantage since Coastal joined the Sun Belt in 2017, with Coastal’s lone win coming at home during its dream 2020 season.
McCall has been excellent as usual in 2022, leading his team to weekly high-scoring wins. He has completed 68.8% of his throws for 2,091 yards, 19 touchdowns and one interception. He contributes on the ground too, adding an extra threat and keeping defenses honest with his scrambling ability.
His superstar performance has been necessary because the defense keeps any opponent in the game. The Coastal defense has been ineffective against all attacks, ranking 87th in EPA/Pass and 88th in EPA/Rush.
The Chants struggle against explosive plays (115th) and struggle to keep teams off schedule (105th in Success Rate). They don’t do the “bend-don’t-break” thing; they just break, ranking 65th in Finishing Drives.
The one thing they do well is create a lot of Havoc, especially with their pass rush. However, Brice has been solid against pressure this year (114 NFL passer rating when kept clean, 104 when pressured).
Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:
Appalachian State Offense vs Coastal Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 23 |  |
| Pass Success | 54 | 121 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 65 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Coastal Carolina Offense vs Appalachian State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 90 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 86 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 85 | 105 |
| PFF Coverage | 94 | 72 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 127 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.3 (66) | 28.7 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 56.0% (50) | 58.4% (32) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina Pick
If this game is going to live up to expectations, there will be points aplenty.
Any functional offense has put up pinball numbers against Coastal Carolina — even Marshall’s weak offense gained 407 total yards on the Chants despite sputtering in the red zone.
Appalachian State’s offense is too versatile, too veteran and too productive to sputter out. It will make frequent trips to the end zone.
Coastal will need to score to keep up, and with McCall, Chadwell’s play designs and App’s own forgiving defense, it will find ways to do so.
Take the over, and enjoy the points in the most entertaining sporting event of the night.
Pick: Over 63.5 ⋅ Play to 65.5 |
