Who had these two teams being in the thick of the Big 12 race on their preseason bingo card?
At 5-1, Arizona State has already exceeded its preseason win total of 4.5. Cincinnati, at 4-2, is also well on its way to eclipsing its win total of 5.5.
Cincinnati is a 5.5-point favorite on the spread with a 49.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 19, and can be streamed live on ESPN+.
Some injury news for the Sun Devils has moved the line a bit, but is there still value here? Let's dig into my Arizona State vs Cincinnati predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 8 matchup.
Arizona State vs Cincinnati Prediction
I'm backing the Bearcats. My Cincinnati vs Arizona State best bet is Cincinnati against the spread.
Arizona State vs Cincinnati Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | +171 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | -207 |
- Arizona State vs Cincinnati Point Spread: Arizona State +5.5 (-110) · Cincinnati -5.5 (-110)
- Arizona State vs Cincinnati Total: Over/Under 49.5
- Arizona State vs Cincinnati Moneyline: Arizona State +171 · Cincinnati -207
Arizona State vs Cincinnati Preview
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Skattebo Carrying the Load
The Sun Devils were dealt a big blow when quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered a rib injury after a big hit last week against Utah. Leavitt left the game at the end of the first half, but was able to gut it out and finish the second half. However, it was determined afterward to be more of a serious issue and it'll keep him out at least this week.
Veteran Jeff Sims will get the start Saturday. The good news is he has 32 games of experience over five seasons at three different schools. He started every game for Georgia Tech as a true freshman and started for three seasons before transferring to Nebraska last season. He lost his job after two games last season and entered the portal before heading to Tempe.
Throughout his career, Sims has never been the most accurate passer and has struggled with turnovers. He has a career 31-29 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has always been able to use his legs.
Sims has averaged 42.4 rushing yards per game in his career and will need to produce at the level to help replace Leavitt’s 46.5 rushing yards per game and four scores on the ground.
Luckily, Sims won’t have to do it alone as fan favorite Cam Skattebo is rushing for 128.8 yards per game and has eight touchdowns through six games. Skattebo runs like a bowling ball, combining speed and power, despite being undersized. He leads the country with 49 missed tackles forced.
There isn't a whole lot to say about Arizona State’s defense, which is just an average unit. The Sun Devils are allowing 23.0 points per game, good for 63rd in the country, and rank 65th nationally in Success Rate.
The biggest issue has been keeping teams out of the end zone. On a per play basis, Arizona State has actually been pretty good, allowing just 4.7 yards per play. However, when teams have found success, they have also found the end zone. The Sun Devils have allowed 16 trips to the red zone and 15 of those have ended in points, 10 in touchdowns. ASU ranks 116th in red zone defense.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Sorsby Playing Well
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby isn't getting enough credit for the great season he's having. After starting six games for Indiana last season, Sorsby decided to transfer to Cincinnati. He is third in Big 12 with an average of 287 yards per game and has 13 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Cincinnati ranks sixth in the country in passing success as Sorsby has been efficient spreading the ball around to receivers Xzavier Henderson and Tony Johnson, and tight end Joe Royer. The Bearcats have scored at least 27 points in five of their six games.
While the passing game has been the star of the show, the running game has held its own with a pair of transfers in Corey Kiner and Evan Pryor. Kiner is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 82.7 yards per game, while Pryor has averaged 8.9 yards per carry in a backup role.
It’s good news that Cincinnati’s offense has been humming because the defense has been inconsistent. The Bearcats rank 76th nationally in Success Rate allowed and have struggled to stop the run. They have been pushed around up front and are allowing 4.95 yards per carry, which ranks 113th in the country.
Luckily for Cincinnati, its defense has basically been the opposite of Arizona State's. Teams have had no problem moving the ball on the Bearcats, but struggle in scoring range. The Bearcats rank 16th in Defensive Finishing Drives and have allowed touchdowns on just six of 17 opponent trips to the red zone, the fifth-lowest percentage in the country.
Arizona State vs Cincinnati
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 16 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 86 | |
Cincinnati Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 49 |  |
| Line Yards | 91 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 85 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 65 | 20 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 92 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 112 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (68) | 28.5 (94) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (14) | 50% (85) |
Arizona State vs Cincinnati Pick & Prediction
This line opened at Cincinnati -3.5 and was bouncing between -2.5 and -3.5 before Kenny Dillingham announced that Leavitt would be out for a few weeks. The line has since moved up to -5, but I still think there is a little value left on the Bearcats.
At first glance, this should be a favorable matchup for the Sun Devils. They want to run the ball with Skattebo, and Cincinnati has been terrible defending the run. However, with Sims starting, that makes things a whole lot easier on Cincinnati's defense.
Sims simply can't pass the ball. He has a career completion percentage of just 57% with 29 interceptions and 31 touchdowns. He also has 44 turnover-worthy plays and just 24 big-time throws. He's not a threat through the air, which will allow the Bearcats to consistently stack the box against Skattebo.
The Bearcats were solid against the run when they faced Houston and Central Florida, two teams that can’t pass the ball. Neither managed a rushing touchdown and Cincinnati allowed 13 total points across those two games.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati's offense will move the ball against the Sun Devils and have no problem finishing drives and putting up points against a red-zone defense that ranks outside of the top 100.
Pick: Cincinnati -5 | Play to -6
Arizona State vs Cincinnati Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Nippert Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Arizona State vs Cincinnati will be played at Nippert Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
