Arizona State vs Colorado Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -480 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
Since it gets dark around 6 p.m. on the East Coast, this matchup between Arizona State and Colorado qualifies as Pac-12 After Dark in my book.
While it may not look to be the most enticing matchup on paper, these two disappointing programs have started to show signs of life under their interim head coaches.
The Sun Devils look renewed the past two weeks as they upset a ranked Washington team and then lost a nail-biter to Stanford last week.
Regardless, both efforts have to be taken as positive momentum heading into this matchup, considering the downward spiral this team appeared to be on.
As for the Buffaloes, there's not much light at the end of the tunnel as their upset over Cal was quickly squashed by a throttling from Oregon State. However, this could be a matchup in which Colorado picks itself up off the deck and competes.
So, how do we play this battle of Pac-12 bottom-feeders? Let's dive in and find out.
Arizona State Sun Devils
In the Sun Devils' upset win over Washington, backup quarterback Trenton Bourguet came off the bench and provided a huge spark. He completed 71% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns in the victory.
While he returned to the bench last week, we saw similar passing success from Emory Jones against Stanford. The numbers say that string of success will carry over to this matchup.
Jones is far from an elite passer, but he's progressed as the season has gone along. His completion percentage in October sits at 67%, which is much higher than what he posted last year at Florida.
However, he doesn't need to be perfect against this Colorado secondary that has been smoked through the air.
The Buffaloes enter this matchup 116th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, and they're 131 in PFF's coverage rating. Although, the offensive opportunities don't stop there for Arizona State. Colorado also hasn't been able to stop the run either, as it ranks 130th in yards per rush allowed.
That number has to make running back Xazavian Valladay's eyes light up, as he's had an excellent campaign thus far. The senior running back is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has reached pay dirt seven times. So, don't be surprised if he makes multiple house calls in this matchup.
Colorado Buffaloes
Well, we went over how dreadful the Colorado defense has been, and unfortunately for the Buffs, their offense has been equally as bad.
They come in averaging just 13.7 points per game and rank 121st in yards per game. However, they might be able to find some success against this Sun Devils defense.
The Buffaloes have thrown the ball a bunch because they've been trailing a ton this season, but their bread and butter is the run game. They actually have a significant rushing advantage in this matchup, as they're 46th in Rushing Success Rate. They also rank 83rd in Line Yards, while Arizona State sits at 127th.
In addition to their rushing edge, the Buffaloes will likely be without starting quarterback Owen McCown and will turn to J.T. Shrout, who has a completion percentage of 44.8% this season. So, establishing the run game may be their only way of moving the ball.
However, questions surround the running back position. Leading rusher Deion Smith missed last week's game with an undisclosed injury.
If Smith is out again, expect the majority of carries to go to Charlie Offerdahl, who's carried the ball at a 4.6 yards-per-carry clip this season.
Arizona State vs Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Colorado match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 116 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 108 | 124 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 125 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Colorado Offense vs Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 103 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 73 |  |
| Havoc | 104 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 75 | 124 |
| PFF Coverage | 73 | 131 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 13 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (113) | 26.1 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 53.1% (69) | 50.2% (87) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.
Arizona State vs Colorado Betting Pick
This game doesn't exactly scream "marquee matchup," but it does offer betting value. The Buffaloes defense will be exposed by a thriving Arizona State offense that should move the ball at will.
However, the Buffs may actually participate in the scoring here, as they have a big edge on the ground. So, while the Sun Devils will carry the scoring, this game goes over the total.
Pick: Over 46.5 ⋅ Play to 47.5 |
