A surprising heavyweight matchup of Big 12 teams square off in Bill Snyder Family Stadium when the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) visit Manhattan, Kansas, to play the Kansas State Wildcats (7-2, 4-2) in a late-season matchup. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Sun Devils enter this one coming off of back-to-back wins and winning 4 of their last 5, while Kansas State is looking to bounce back following a disappointing loss to Houston in Week 10.
These two teams haven't played each other in recent memory, so this will be the beginning of recurring matchups between these two after conference realignment.
Kansas State comes into this game as a -8 favorite with the over/under sitting at 50.5.
Can the Sun Devils continue their surprising season, or will Kansas State do what they are supposed to and win this one at home? Continue below for my Arizona State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Betting Lines
- Arizona State vs. Kansas State Pick: Arizona State +8.5
My Kansas State vs. Arizona State best bet is on ASU to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona State vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Arizona State vs. Kansas State Spread: Kansas State -7.5, Arizona State +7.5
- Arizona State vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 51.5
- Arizona State vs. Kansas State Moneyline: Kansas State ML -300, Arizona State ML +240
Arizona State vs. Kansas State Game Preview
Why Arizona State Will Win: Opportunistic Defense
Coach Kenny Dillingham has done a phenomenal job in Tempe, turning this team around from its 3-9 record a year ago. He still has an outside chance of making the Big 12 Championship, and this is a game he has to have to keep those hopes alive.
Sam Leavitt leads the Sun Devils under center, but the unquestioned leader of this offense is senior running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has over 1,000 rushing yards on the year, and it seems like he's the one ripping off the big runs late in games to set his team up to score and close out games.
The Sun Devils average 31.5 points per game this year, so Leavitt and his receivers have also been playing solid. The Sun Devils rank 22nd in Rush Success Rate and 74th in Pass Success Rate.
This offense lives and dies by Skattebo and the ground game, and I would expect it to continue to lean into that and get creative this week to keep feeding the senior back.
The difference with this Arizona State team has been how good it's been defensively. It allows 23.8 points per game and roughly 330 yards of offense per game. It ranks 28th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 86th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The key to victory is to attack this secondary, but that comes at a higher risk. This defense is very opportunistic, as it ranks third in Havoc and has a +7 turnover margin on the year.
Kansas State will need to be careful how it attacks this defense because it can generate some short fields for the opposing offense if it's not careful.
Why Kansas State Will Win: Big 12 Title Contender?
Coach Chris Klieman is in his sixth season in Manhattan and has transformed this Kansas State program into a consistent Big 12 contender. The Wildcats seem to always be in the mix to compete for a Big 12 Championship, and this year is no different.
The Cats offense has been great this season, averaging 31 points per game. Most of the credit has been given to quarterback Avery Johnson for his ability to run and throw the ball, but the unsung hero of this offense has been running back DJ Giddens.
There's no secret what Kansas State wants to do on offense, as it ranks 33rd in Rush Rate — and for good reason. The Wildcats rank 24th in Rush Success Rate and 12th in Rush Explosiveness.
Johnson has been great in the run game, but Giddens averages over six yards per carry on high volume. He's the key that sets everything up for the Wildcats, and Klieman will need him to be great again this week.
Johnson’s passing has not been as great, ranking 77th in Pass Success Rate and 81st in Pass Explosiveness. The Wildcats will need the run game working to avoid another loss this week.
Defensively, K-State seems to be very similar to the Sun Devils in that it's strong against the run and struggles to defend the pass. The run defense is a strength of this team, ranking 23rd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 52nd in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
It will be a fun matchup watching it defend the run-heavy ASU offense. The way to attack this defense is through the air, where the Wildcats rank 74th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 115th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
They don't force the volume of turnovers that the Sun Devils do, which could be the story of this game in what figures to be two fairly even teams.
Kansas State vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Arizona State match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 14 |  |
| Pass Success | 42 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 61 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 27 | 34 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 63 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 76 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 43 |
| PFF Coverage | 56 | 86 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 128 | 11 |
| Middle 8 | 4 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (81) | 27.6 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (14) | 55% (50) |
Arizona State vs Kansas State: Who Will Win?
With these two teams playing very similarly with similar strengths and weaknesses, I normally like to back the better quarterback and the home team. However, I think this game will come down to turnovers more than quarterback play.
K-State's Johnson is a bit more careless with the football than ASU's Leavitt, and I think that gives the Sun Devils an extra opportunity to keep this one close and maybe even win outright.
I won’t be picking the winner on the moneyline, but I will take Arizona State and the 8.5 points I'm getting with the road team.
Pick: Arizona State +7.5
Arizona State vs. Kansas State: How To Watch and Game Preview
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Arizona State takes on Kansas State in Saturday night college football action at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arizona State vs. Kansas State Betting Trends
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