Arizona State vs. Texas Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +425 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -600 |
- Spread: Arizona State +13.5 · Texas -13.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State ML +425 · Texas ML -600
The No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2, 7-2 Big 12) meet the No. 5 Texas Longhorns (12-2, 7-1 SEC) in the Peach Bowl — a College Football Playoff semifinal game — on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Arizona State nabbed a spot in the CFP with its 45-19 victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. Not on did that win punch the Sun Devils' ticket to the playoff, but it also got them a first-round bye.
On the other side, Texas missed out on a first-round bye after losing to Georgia, 22-19, in the SEC Championship. The Longhorns still took care of business, beating Clemson in the first round of the CFP by a score of 38-24.
Texas enters this game as a -12.5 favorite with the over/under at 51.5.
Let's take a look at our Arizona State vs. Texas picks and college football predictions for the Sun Bowl College Football Playoff game on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
By Pete Ruden
What a year it has been for Arizona State.
Picked to finish last in the Big 12, head coach Kenny Dillingham and Co. fought against that narrative to produce an 11-2 record to go along with a Big 12 Championship in the team's first season in its new conference.
A lot of the Sun Devils' success can be attributed to star running back Cam Skattebo. The senior back ran for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season and will give the Longhorns one of their biggest challenges of the season.
Speaking of the Longhorns, this team has put together one of the most impressive seasons in all of college football.
After falling to Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinals a season ago, Texas lost only two games this season — a 30-15 defeat at the hands of Georgia in the regular season and a 22-19 loss to those same Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.
Now, the Longhorns will look to get back on the right track in a big game.
We kicked 2025 off by polling nine members of our college football staff to get their leans for the spread and over/under in this game, so let's dive into our Peach Bowl picks below.
Arizona State vs. Texas Best Bets, Picks
Arizona State vs. Texas Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas -12.5
By John Feltman
Our staff is split about which side to take on the spread, with five of the nine votes leaning toward the favorite.
Some sharp money has hit Arizona State, pushing the number down a point.
All that said, I’d lean toward Texas at the current spread.
Kenny Dillingham and his Sun Devils have had a terrific season, but I am afraid their magical run is about to end. Because of their leaky defense, I can’t trust them to cover the large number.
I fully believe Texas has the nation’s best defense.
I admit the Longhorns looked vulnerable against Clemson last week, particularly against the pass. But they don’t have to worry about the aerial attack on Saturday, as Arizona State’s bread and butter is in the rushing game.
If you look at Arizona State's offensive metrics, you will see a balanced unit. The Sun Devils thrive on rush and pass explosives, and their offensive line has done an excellent job at protecting the quarterback.
Still, this will be their toughest test yet.
We must pump the brakes on their offense and focus on their poor defensive metrics. I realize that Texas struggles to run the football, but the Arizona State defense ranks in the 14th percentile in rush explosives allowed. That tells me that Texas will get the run game going, and we may see a lot of packages involving Arch Manning.
I am excited to see the Arizona State offense go up against this Texas defense, but there is too big of a talent discrepancy for them to keep up.
Arizona State vs. Texas Over/Under Pick
Over 51.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 51.5 | 3 Picks |
Over/Under Pick: Over 51.5
By John Feltman
As of Tuesday morning, the total is 51.5, and our staff leans towards the over.
I would have to disagree with the majority, as I like the under.
I discussed the Arizona State offense in the spread breakdown above, and the Sun Devils are in for a rude awakening against the Longhorns' defense. Cam Skattebo has been spectacular this season, but Texas will be a different beast.
I believe Texas has the nation’s best defense. The Longhorns rank in the 98th percentile or better in the following defensive metrics:
- EPA per Play Allowed
- Rush and Pass Explosives Allowed
- Rush and Pass Success Rate Allowed
- Havoc
- Early and Late Down EPA per Play allowed
They've been pushed around slightly in the defensive trench, but that doesn’t concern me against the Sun Devils. The Sun Devils offense is balanced, but their bread and butter is on the ground.
If the Horns can limit Skattebo, I do not see a world where the total goes over.
I have concerns about the Arizona State defense allowing a lot of explosives, but we will see a much slower-paced game than many expect, with a lot of clock bleeding. Arizona State’s best chance of pulling off the upset is to slow the game down to a crawl.
Meanwhile, Texas' offense may take some time unless it breaks off a few explosive plays early. Still, I think we’ll see a “feeling-out” stretch through the first quarter.
I don’t think we’ll see a shootout like the Texas-Clemson game, and I think the Longhorns' defense will shut down the Sun Devils.
