The Arizona State Sun Devils will travel to San Marcos, Texas, to take on the Texas State Bobcats on Thursday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, with the game live on TV on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
Texas State is now a 1.5-point favorite (-1.5) over Arizona State, after ASU had been as big as a 2-point favorite early in the day on Thursday. That almost certainly means that the Bobcats have been getting bets on the spread all day today. At the current Texas State vs. Arizona State odds, Texas State is a -122 favorite to win outright, with the Sun Devils now +105 on the moneyline.
is a 2-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 60 points (-108 / -112). Texas State has been on the rise as a Group of Five program and will be vying for a potential program-changing upset.
Let’s dive into my Arizona State vs. Texas State prediction and best bet for Thursday night’s matchup.
My Arizona State vs. Texas State Picks
Texas State-ASU Predictions: Texas State to Cover the Spread
My ASU vs. Texas State best bet is now on the Bobcats at -1.5, and I would play that to up to Texas State -2.5., with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
I was originally on Texas State to win outright as an underdog on the moneyline, but with the odds having shifted, I'm not going to pick the Bobcats on the spread. If the odds move back to Texas State as a plus-money underdog to win outright, consider a moneyline bet for tonight's College Football Week 3 tilt.
Arizona State vs Texas State Odds
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
- ASU vs. Texas State Point Spread: Texas State -3 (-105) | Arizona State +3 (-115)
- ASU vs. Texas State Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- ASU vs Texas State Lines: Texas State -145 | Arizona State +125
Week 3 College Football Preview: Arizona State Football vs. Texas State Football
Arizona State Sun Devils Football Preview
Arizona State has turned some heads with its early-season performance.
The Sun Devils came into this year with a season win total of 4.5 and are now 2-0.
It’s not just the fact that they won, but the matter in which they did so. They beat Wyoming by 41 points and then led Mississippi State by multiple scores for most of the game.
Arizona State ranks 56th in Offensive EPA per Play and 69th in Success Rate.
The Sun Devils have had a rush-heavy attack, running the ball 52 times per game, the fifth-most rushes in the country. On these runs, they rank 25th in EPA per Play and 52nd in Success Rate.
Last weekend, Cam Skattebo carried the ball 33 times for 262 yards against Mississippi State.
After playing well against Wyoming, new starting quarterback Sam Leavitt struggled mightily against Mississippi State. He completed 10-of-20 pass attempts for just 65 yards. Despite not throwing an interception and being sacked only once against the Bulldogs, Leavitt averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback.
ASU’s defense returned just four starters and looked fantastic against Wyoming. Week 2 provided some additional context for what to expect going forward. It turns out Wyoming might not have a good offense and that we should be less impressed by the Week 1 performance.
Mississippi State posted an 86th-percentile Success Rate and 63rd-percentile EPA per Play despite an early-game fumble recovery for a touchdown. ASU's defense will likely look more like it did in Week 2 than in Week 1 moving forward.
Texas State Bobcats Football Preview
Texas State head coach GJ Kinne made headlines last season with his high-powered offense. This season, with a new quarterback in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud and nine returning starters, the Bobcats are looking deadly once again.
The Bobs scored 34 points on Lamar and 49 against UTSA last weekend. In Week 2, McCloud completed 18-of-27 passes for 309 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Lincoln Pare rushed 11 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
Last year, this offense ranked 15th in Success Rate and 19th in Finishing Drives, as well as 14th in Passing Success Rate and 50th in Passing PPA with TJ Finley at quarterback.
Despite their reputation, they ran the ball 52% of the time and ranked 23rd in Rushing Success Rate, 20th in Rushing PPA and 15th in rushing explosiveness.
The defense was the issue last season. The Bobs' stop unit finished 54th in Success Rate but 127th in explosiveness allowed. Their passing defense ranked 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 80th in Passing PPA Allowed and 111th in passing explosiveness allowed.
They return nine starters on the defense, which showed signs of improvement against UTSA last week by allowing just 10 points.
My Arizona State vs Texas State Prediction: Bet Texas State to Cover the Spread
It’s not often a power conference team plays a true road game against a G5 opponent, but that’s what we have here. Arizona State will be playing in a hostile environment as the home underdog looks to pull the upset.
Of all the units in this game, I trust Kinne’s offense the most. Texas State’s offense will be able to hang with Arizona State, and I don’t trust the Sun Devils enough to keep up.
I liked taking the Bobcats as home underdogs on Thursday night to score the outright win over Arizona State. In turn, the Bobcats will start to gain momentum toward being the G5 representative in the College Football Playoff. Now that Texas State is a slight favorite on the moneyline, I'll bet on them to cover, as long as it stays within 3.
My Texas State-Arizona State Pick: Texas State -1.5 | Bet to -2.5
ASU-Texas State Betting Trends
- Arizona State is 2-0 straight up and against the spread this season.
- ASU has also gone over the total once and under the total once.
- Texas State has gone 2-0 straight up but 1-1 against the spread.
- The under has cashed in both of the Bobcats' games.
How to Watch Arizona State vs Texas State: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTubeTV |
Arizona State vs Texas State Weather
