On Saturday, Arizona State will kick off its Big 12 Conference era with a trip to Lubbock, Texas, to face off against Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
The Sun Devils are off to a 3-0 start in the second season under Kenny Dillingham, which already matches their win total from last year. Arizona State has looked strong out of the gates and is coming off an exciting win at Texas State.
Texas Tech has started 2-1 and is coming off a 66-point effort in a big victory against North Texas. The Red Raiders have put up 118 points in their two wins but were held to just 16 points in the loss to Washington State.
Tech is favored by three points on the spread with an over/under that's at 60. Tech is also -155 on the moneyline.
Here's my Arizona State vs. Texas Tech prediction and pick.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Odds, Pick
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 / -108 | +145 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 / -108 | -175 |
- Point Spread: Arizona State +3.5 (-112) · Texas Tech -3 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 58.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State +145 · Texas Tech -175
- Pick: Arizona State +3
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Preview
Arizona State Football
Arizona State plucked quarterback Sam Leavitt out of the transfer portal after he played in four games for Michigan State as a true freshman.
He still leaves something to be desired as a passer (completing just 191 yards with three touchdowns so far this season), but he's looked very dangerous with his legs.
Leavitt is averaging 51.7 rushing yards per game and more than five yards per carry. He has three rushing scores on the season, and he's paired in the backfield with stud running back Cam Skattebo, who looks like one of the best backs in the country.
Skattebo is averaging 124.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. His 14 rushes of 10+ yards are the third-most in the nation. Plus, he lives off contact.
Cam Skattebo LOVES contact
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 12, 2024
Dillingham is known as an offensive guy, and so far, his team has scored at least 30 points in all three games. The Sun Devils run a fast-paced, up-tempo offense (14th in plays per game) and have mostly relied on their running attack between their star tailback and mobile quarterback.
The Sun Devils returned just three starters on defense, but they've gotten the job done so far. They didn't play good offenses in Wyoming and Mississippi State, but they held both teams under 300 yards.
Texas State was able to put up 400 yards, but Arizona State held the Bobcats to just 28 points and did a much better job of shutting them down in the second half.
The bright spot of this defense is likely its pass rush with defensive ends Clayton Smith and Prince Dorbah, who will return from injury this week.
Even without its best pass rusher, Arizona State ranks 16th with nine sacks and has a good matchup against a banged up offensive line.
Texas Tech Football
Quarterback Behren Morton is in his fourth season in Lubbock, and this is his third year seeing substantial playing time.
However, this was his first season entering the year as the unquestioned starting quarterback.
He's gotten off to a great start, throwing 10 touchdowns and averaging 324.7 yards per game. He ranks second in the country in touchdowns and fifth in yards.
Morton’s top receiver has been the former Fresno State star Josh Kelly, but he spreads the ball around nicely. Six players have caught a touchdown this season and five guys are averaging at least 30 receiving yards per game.
Injuries have been the story for Texas Tech so far this season. Star running back Tahj Brooks battled issues early but did return last week. Meanwhile, starting guard Vinny Sciury is out for the season.
Nobody really expects much from the Texas Tech defense. When the Red Raiders win games, they're going to need to outscore teams. The Red Raiders rank 73rd in the country in defensive success rate and have been especially suspect against the pass.
They were lit up for 506 yards and three passing touchdowns against Abilene Christian, were burned on ground against Washington State (allowing 301 yards and four touchdowns) and then looked better against North Texas.
Starting linebacker Dylan Spencer is out of the season, linebacker Charles Esters III has yet to play and their secondary is banged up, with safety C.J. Baskerville and cornerback Bralyn Lux injured and questionable for this one.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Texas Tech match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 95 |  |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 103 | |
Texas Tech Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 24 | 46 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 133 |
| PFF Coverage | 87 | 133 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 95 | 14 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (105) | 22.9 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 67% (7) | 41% (118) |
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Prediction
Dillingham entered a disastrous situation at Arizona State, but the team looks like it's taken a substantial step forward in his second year. While the schedule hasn’t exactly been a murderer's row, the Sun Devils have done everything asked of them.
The Sun Devils demolished Wyoming in the opener. Mississippi State is a very bad team, but ASU outplayed the Bulldogs by a much larger margin than the final score. And then they went on the road and beat a Texas State team that could be in the Group of 5 playoff bid discussion.
The offense has found a terrific groove running the football with Skattebo and Leavitt.
In its only loss, we saw Texas Tech really struggle to defend the quarterback run. Washington State’s John Mateer torched the Red Raiders for 197 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and Texas Tech had no answer to contain him.
When Leavitt does throw the ball, he should have success against a weak Texas Tech secondary that comes into this game beat up.
Arizona State doesn't have an elite defense, but so far, it's completely shut down its opponents' running game, allowing just 65.3 rushing yards per game and 2.19 yards per carry, the ninth-best mark in the country.
The Sun Devils held Mississippi State to just 24 yards on 27 carries.
Texas Tech is at its best when leaning on Brooks and the running game. If Arizona State can continue to play like this up front and slow Brooks down, it has a chance to win this game and get its first Big 12 conference win.
Pick: Arizona State +3
How to Watch Arizona State vs Texas Tech Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jones AT&T Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Betting Trends
- 52% of the bets and 39% of the money is on Arizona State to cover the spread against Texas Tech.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Weather
