Friday night football rolls on as the No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) host the No. 20 Arizona Wildcats (2-0) live at 8 p.m. ET on FOX and streaming on YouTube TV.
Kansas State is currently a consensus 7-point favorites (-7) over Arizona as we get closer to kickoff. If you're betting on Kansas State to cover the spread, you can find Kansas State -6.5 in the market. The total has risen to over/under 61 at many books, and if you're backing my best bet for tonight, you're going to want to shop around for an over/under of 60.5. Kansas State is a -250 moneyline favorite, with Arizona +200 to win this battle of Wildcats.
Kansas State beat Tulane 34-20 in Week 2 but failed to cover as a 10-point favorite, while Arizona is coming off of a 22-10 victory over NAU in which the Wildcats failed to cover a massive 35.5-point spread, as well.
With the spread favoring the home team by a possession, where does the value lie in Friday Night Lights? Read on for my Arizona vs. Kansas State predictions and my college football predictions and picks for Friday.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds
- Kansas State vs. Arizona spread: Kansas State -7
- Kansas State vs. Arizona over/under: 60.5 points
- Kansas State vs. Arizona moneyline: Kansas State -250, Arizona +200
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- 72% of bets and 69% of the money are on Arizona to cover the spread.
- 61% of bets and 84% of the money are on the over.
- 91% of bets and 71% of the money are on Kansas State on the moneyline
- 8% of the bets and 29% of the money on Arizona to pull off the upset.
Arizona vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions
Pick: Over 59 | Bet to 60.5
My Arizona-Kansas State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page. I originally gave out this pick out for tonight's bet at over 59, and the total has moved up 1.5 points since.
I'd still bet this at 60.5, but be sure to shop around for the best number.
Arizona Football vs. Kansas State Football
There may be no better measurement of a team's ability to compete in a new conference than taking on one of the best programs in the Midwest during a nonconference affair.
Arizona will officially begin Big 12 play in Week 5 against Utah, but first up is a nonconference showdown with fellow Big 12 member Kansas State in Manhattan. The game was scheduled before conference realignment, so it doesn't count toward the conference standings.
Equipped with the new "Red Cats" uniform combination, Arizona will look to remain undefeated after a troubling offensive performance against Northern Arizona. The Wildcats did not convert a single third down in 10 attempts against the Lumberjacks.
Now, they'll look to bring a highly explosive passing attack to Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Kansas State returns to Manhattan after surviving a nonconference trip to New Orleans. Tulane took a 20-10 lead into halftime against the Wildcats, and Kansas State needed 24 points in the second half with a few explosive drives to survive the Green Wave.
Tulane torched the secondary in the first half before K-State made adjustments on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Chris Klieman remarked that the Arizona defense could present issues to a Kansas State rushing attack that has been a staple ever since Klieman took over in 2019.
Arizona Wildcats Football Preview: The Fifita-to-McMillan Connection
The offensive box scores from Arizona's victories over New Mexico and Northern Arizona could not be more different.
Offensive coordinator Dino Babers' offense hummed in the season opener to the tune of 61 points while gaining 77% of available yards by creating an explosive drive on half of its possessions.
Quarterback Noah Fifita didn't follow former coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, opening with a 422-yard, four-touchdown passing performance under new head coach Brent Brennan.
Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan took the early lead in the Biletnikoff Award race with all four touchdowns and 304 receiving yards spread out over 10 catches.
#CFB's Fastest Five Players of Week 1:
T-5. @ArizonaFBall's Tetairoa McMillan (@TMAC96795)@Big12Conference's Player of the Week 🌟 20 MPH 💨 #BearDown#Big12FB@ZonaZooOfficial@NFLDraftpic.twitter.com/0B22NFi6ka
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 3, 2024
The feelings were not so warm in a 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona, where the offensive line allowed 10 pressures in 29 dropbacks.
A number of starters missed the Northern Arizona game due to injury, including team captain and center Josh Baker. Jonah Savaiinaea made his first career start at left tackle, while right guard Ryan Stewart moved to right tackle.
Baker was the biggest piece missing on the line from a continuity standpoint, starting 28 straight games and serving as the primary snapper for Fifita.
The good news for the Wildcats was a stout defensive performance after allowing New Mexico to post 39 points in the season opener.
The nickel package defense that rotates from a 2-4-5 to a 3-3-5 lands in the top 50 of Action Network's Havoc Rankings, creating a respectable pass rush while ranking 11th in passes defensed through two games.
The bad news is that the Wildcats have consistently given up scores when opponents cross their 40-yard line. In two games against New Mexico and Northern Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed nine drives beyond the 40 with an average of 5.3 points per trip.
Kansas State Wildcats Football Preview: Ground Game Staying Strong
Kansas State continues to be a heavy rush advocate, executing ground attempts at a 57% rate.
Zone read and power run concepts continue to dominate the box score, as quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens average more than 6.3 yards per carry.
The Wildcats continue to meet the program standard with a top-30 rank in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. Where Kansas State struggles on offense is third down, converting just 6-of-20 attempts through Week 2.
GOODNESS GIDDENS ‼️
Avery Johnson's lob to DJ Giddens ties things right up as @KStateFB battles in New Orleans.#Big12FB | 📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/phkOEQ01Wf
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 7, 2024
Passing numbers have remained steady for Johnson through 48 dropbacks, recording the same rate of turnover-worthy plays and big-time throws as in 2023.
Early returns in passing categories, such as catchable ball, rate leave more to be desired. The 'Cats rank 91st of all FBS passing offenses in that area.
However, the good news comes with a crowded pocket, as Johnson has avoided getting sacked despite facing 12 pressures this season.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has several positive takeaways for his 3-3-5 personnel.
Kansas State ranks top-20 in defending the rush and Havoc. The Wildcats sit fourth nationally in creating tackles for loss, as offensive lines have had to contend with linebackers Austin Romaine and Desmond Purnell, who lead the team in tackles.
Havoc can be attributed to the edge positions, as Tobi Osunsanmi and Brendan Mott have combined for 14 pressures and five sacks.
The area of concern for Kansas State comes against the pass, ranking 128th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
A trio of starting safeties have provided the lowest coverage grades in the conference. Jordan Riley, Marques Sigle and VJ Payne have allowed 14-of-21 targets to be caught while failing to record a pass breakup.
How to Watch Arizona vs. Kansas State: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Friday, Sept. 13 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Friday night's game is set to start at 8 p.m. ET and is on FOX and streaming on YouTube TV. The game is live from Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas on Friday the 13th.
How to Bet Arizona vs. Kansas State Prediction
Kansas State has been excellent at creating Havoc through two weeks of play, nearly leading the country in tackles for loss.
The Wildcats have also forced four fumbles and broken up three passes, indicating that Arizona's offense must improve on a bad offensive line performance against Northern Arizona.
There's good news for the offensive line, as Baker, the center, is practicing in preparation for Kansas State. The fifth-year senior was held out against Northern Arizona, a contributing factor to a number of offensive linemen playing new positions.
With improvement expected in pass protection for Arizona, the bigger question is if Fifita can take advantage of lackluster play by Kansas State's safeties.
Based on a limited sample from this season and all of 2023, Klanderman runs quarters and Cover 1 on 60% of coverage snaps using zone. Fifita has shredded quarters and Cover 1 at a high rate of success and EPA, similar to the man coverage seen on 25% of snaps last season.
Like last season, most of Fifita's success comes when attacking safeties between the hashes.
Kansas State's ground game is expected to have plenty of success on Friday night. Arizona's defense falls to 69th in Stuff Rate and 77th in Line Yards.
Kansas State ranks fourth in offensive momentum killer early this season, indicating the Wildcats do not stop themselves from getting into scoring position.
There are offensive advantages on both sides, particularly with an Arizona offensive line that may play with full health.
While Fifita and McMillan will create explosives in the pass game, Kansas State will look to Giddens and Johnson to extend drives and capitalize on scoring attempts.
Both teams rank top-20 in rush explosives, while Arizona has the advantage of ranking 18th in pass EPA.
With moderate wind not expected to limit kicking or passing, look for plenty of points between two offenses that have key advantages.
Arizona vs. Kansas State Pick: Over 59 | Bet to 60.5
