Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 6 and our Arizona vs Texas Tech predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Arizona vs Texas Tech Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Why Arizona Wildcats Can Cover the Spread
Arizona lost head coach Jedd Fisch after a magical run to a 10-3 season. Teams often have to virtually start over after losing their head coach.
That's not the case for the Wildcats.
Brent Brennan was hired, and the first thing he did was ensure that star quarterback Noah Fifita and superstar receiver Tetairoa McMillan remained in Tucson. They did, and Arizona ranks among the top 40 nationally in Pass Success Rate.
Fifita averages 265 passing yards per game and has tossed seven touchdowns. He is graded as the Big 12's third-best passer. McMillan averages 125.8 yards per game, including 17.3 yards per reception with a 14.8-yard aDOT — the highest of any FBS receiver with 28 or more catches.
These two make up one of the most electric combinations in college football and are a big reason why the Wildcats rank 10th nationally in Explosiveness.
Do you know what Texas Tech is terrible at? Defending the pass and preventing big plays. The Red Raiders rank 108th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 126th in Explosiveness allowed.
Abilene Christian put up over 500 yards passing against the Red Raiders defense. Arizona State put up 282, their best passing performance of the season. Cincinnati threw for 426 yards and four touchdowns last week.
Texas Tech has allowed 309.4 passing yards per game this season. Only Ball State and Middle Tennessee have allowed more passing yards. Only Eastern Michigan and Akron have a worse PFF Coverage grade.
Fifita and McMillan are going to feast on this secondary all game long, and the Wildcats will have no problem pulling away.
Why Texas Tech Red Raiders Can Cover the Spread
I’ll just get out ahead of it and say this:
Yeah, I’m worried about Tech’s defense.
But, after underwhelming results against Abilene Christian (52-51 win) and Washington State (37-16 loss), the Red Raiders have exploded in wins against North Texas (66-21), Arizona State (30-22) and Cincinnati (44-41).
The defense stepped up against North Texas (-0.20 EPA per Play allowed, 84th percentile) and Arizona State (-0.6 EPA per Play allowed, 65th percentile). The secondary is super vulnerable, but the front seven has held its own against the run, holding the Sun Devils and Bearcats to 223 rushing yards at 3.5 YPC combined.
Of greater importance, quarterback Behren Morton and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley have clicked.
We always knew Kittley was a stud. Do you remember Bailey Zappe at Western Kentucky?
But it took him a while to find his way in Lubbock.
But now that the transfer-heavy offensive line has settled (sixth nationally in PFF’s pass-blocking grades) and Washington State’s Josh Kelly has found his way (39 receptions for 487 yards), Morton has exploded for over 1400 yards with 14 touchdowns to just two picks.
Now that Tahj Brooks is healthy again, the Raiders posted over 230 rushing yards at over six YPC against North Texas and Cincinnati, respectively.
Kittley is on fire. The Red Raider offense is clicking on all cylinders. And I believe the transfer-heavy defense – they returned just five starters from last year’s squad – is starting to find some cohesion and consistency.
At the minimum, the Kittley-Morton-Brooks trio can stay within the number by going tit-for-tat with Arizona in a shootout.
Why Wildcats Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Tanner admits the Red Raiders defense is trash. One point for Mike.
That said … Don’t you dare pit Bailey Zappe against me in your argument. Let’s be professionals and fight fair.
Perhaps it took Kittley such a long time to find his way in Lubbock because Morton isn’t all that good? We have seen plenty of him at this point. He made four starts in 2022, eight last year, and five this season.
His 14-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio looks pretty, but he had five scores against Abilene Christian and four against North Texas. Against Power 4 competition, that ratio is just 5-2 in three games.
Morton has put up yards through volume, throwing the ball 38 times per game. He's averaging just 7.4 yards per attempt, good for 12th among Big 12 passers. He has just four big-time throws all season with three turnover-worthy plays.
I would hardly call that on fire.
Brooks is terrific, but he is not going to be enough. Arizona is coming off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Utah to just 10 points and 364 total yards in Rice-Eccles Stadium.
I know it was the Utes' backup quarterback, but the Wildcats' defense allowed just 84 rushing yards on 29 carries. Arizona had three sacks and seven tackles for loss in that one.
If this is going to be a shootout, I trust the Arizona defense to make a few more stops, and I trust Fifita to be the better quarterback.
Why Red Raiders Are Better Bet
McGrath: I’m unsure that Arizona has seamlessly transitioned into the Brent Brennan era.
In fact, the Wildcats have fallen wildly short of oddsmaker's expectations. They failed to cover big numbers against New Mexico and Northern Arizona before losing to Kansas State by 24 and seven-point favorites.
Sure, they beat Utah on the road last week, but it’s not hard to beat Isaac Wilson and his 20-for-40 passing effort – and Arizona was still outgained 364 total yards to 358.
The Wildcats' problem isn’t explosives but rather an inability to create a consistent down-to-down offense. They rank 79th nationally in Success Rate, including 94th in Rush Success Rate. They rank 95th in third-down Success Rate because they rank 82nd in average third-down distance to go, sitting at a whopping 7.3 yards.
The Wildcats also have a myriad of defensive issues, which has allowed their lower-tier opponents to score points and stay within the number.
They’ve been shredded methodically, ranking 75th nationally in both Rush Success and Pass Success Rate allowed. They have created zero Havoc, ranking 104th nationally. They’ve struggled to stand up with their backs against the wall, ranking 123rd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
If you want to talk numbers, let’s talk numbers. New Mexico and Kansas State each rushed for over 200 yards on the Wildcats. Wilson managed 280 yards on his 20 completions last week.
This brings me to one final point: Arizona is vulnerable to explosives, too. The Wildcats rank 78th nationally in Explosiveness allowed.
Kittley and Morton can feast on the opposing secondary, too. The Red Raiders run the Air Raid for crying out loud. Their offense is built on spreading the defense and getting the ball to playmakers into space — they rank 14th nationally in Explosiveness.
The Red Raiders are going to create one-on-one matchups in the passing and run game, which is a scary thing for an Arizona defense that ranks 111th nationally in PFF’s Tackling grades — meanwhile, Brooks ranks 14th among FBS running backs in missed tackles forced (25).
However, unlike Arizona, Texas Tech's offense is more balanced and well-rounded, ranking 38th in Success Rate and 25th in Finishing Drives.
This is why Morton ranks 20th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback (+0.28) while Fifita ranks 61st (+0.08).
The market is still overrating Arizona. These teams are much closer than the six-point spread indicates. The Red Raiders can go toe-to-toe with Arizona.
Arizona Football Spread: Why Wildcats Will Cover
Ianniello: The perfect solution for ranking 79th in Success Rate is facing a defense that ranks 99th in Success Rate allowed.
I think Tanner is underselling the Wildcats run game a little bit. Their passing game fills the seats. However, despite shuffling running backs around a bit due to an eligibility issue, Arizona still averages 5.9 yards per carry on the season, ranking 17th nationally.
Quali Conley came with Brennan from San Jose State, and he's averaging over 5.8 yards per carry and 80.5 yards per game. The Wildcats will mostly rely on the pass, but that doesn’t mean they can’t move the ball when they do hand it off.
While Arizona has its share of defensive deficiencies, the Wildcats are not as bad as the Red Raiders.
And one area the Wildcats have no issue with is putting pressure on the quarterback.
The Wildcats rank in the top 40 nationally in pressure rate and have done an excellent job getting after the quarterback. Edge rushers Tre Smith (21 pressures) and Chase Kennedy (15 pressures) lead on the outside, forcing opposing quarterbacks to hurry their passes.
Morton has been horrible when under pressure. He has 12 touchdowns and no interceptions when kept clean but just two touchdowns with two interceptions when under pressure. His completion rate is a putrid 33.3% when pressured.
Fifita, meanwhile, should have all day to throw. Texas Tech ranks 94th nationally in PFF's Pass Rush grades and has managed just four sacks all year. Only two teams in the country have fewer sacks than the Red Raiders, and both squads have played one fewer game.
Texas Tech ranks 114th nationally at creating Havoc. The Red Raiders will not be able to pressure Arizona and will allow the Wildcats to play within their game plan.
Fifita can sit in the pocket and have plenty of time to get the ball to his receivers. Morton will not.
Texas Tech Football Spread: Why Red Raiders Will Cover
McGrath: Nah, Morton is just good.
He also had his best game of the year against Cincinnati last week, completing 19 of 29 passes for 250 yards and two scores. Baked into that was an 80.5 PFF Passing grade, a 9.2 aDOT and an 85% adjusted completion percentage because his wideouts dropped four easy ones.
Again, he ranks 20th nationally in EPA per Dropback! How is he not good?
Brooks should be more than enough because Arizona can’t stack the box against Morton like they did against Wilson last week. And if Kittley’s air raid spreads the Wildcats out effectively – as it has against everyone the past few weeks – Arizona’s undisciplined tackling will undoubtedly come into play.
I trust neither defense, but I am much lower on Arizona’s defense in this matchup. Six points is too many for Texas Tech’s red-hot offense in a game that may come down to whoever has the ball last.
Closing Arguments for Arizona vs Texas Tech Spread
Ianniello: Bet Arizona -6.5
This game features two below-average defenses.
But Arizona’s is better.
This game features two teams that want to lean on their passing attack.
But Arizona’s is better.
The Red Raiders rank 128th in PFF's Coverage grades and 129th in PFF's Tackling grades. That means guys are running open all game, able to make uncontested catches, break tackles and break away.
Arizona is among the nation's most explosive passing attacks. The Wildcats have the nation's most dynamic quarterback-receiver combination.
Back McMillan’s receiving yards and bet on the Wildcats to cover.
McGrath: Bet Texas Tech +6.5
The Red Raider offense is too hot to stop, and Arizona won’t be the team to do that.
You need a few stops to cover a touchdown-sized spread, and I don’t trust the Wildcats to do that.
Even if Texas Tech’s defense flails at similar levels, Kittley, Morton and Brooks will keep ‘em in it for 60 minutes.
