Arkansas (4-3) and Mississippi State (1-6) look to get back on track in the Southeastern Conference in an early Saturday afternoon kickoff.
The Razorbacks followed up the upset win over Tennessee with a loss to LSU, falling to 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the SEC.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have lost six straight under their new head coach, but they have shown improvement in recent weeks.
Arkansas is a 6.5-point favorite on the spread with a 57-point over/under. The game kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on the SEC Network.
Check out our Arkansas vs Mississippi State predictions and college football picks for their Week 9 NCAAF matchup on Saturday, Oct. 26.
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Picks, Prediction
My Arkansas vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites at bet365 Sportsbook.
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 56 -108o / -112u | -260 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 56 -108o / -112u | +210 |
- Arkansas vs Mississippi State Point Spread: Arkansas -7 (-110) · Mississippi State +7 (-110)
- Arkansas vs Mississippi State Total: Over/Under 56
- Arkansas vs Mississippi State Moneyline: Arkansas -260 · Mississippi State +210
Arkansas Football vs Mississippi State Football Preview
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: All Eyes on Green
After a disappointing season a year ago, coach Sam Pittman made a big swing in the offseason by bringing back former Razorback coach Bobby Petrino to run the offense.
It hasn’t taken Petrino very long to get this Arkansas offense humming again. The Hogs ranked fourth in the SEC and in the top 25 nationally in total offense.
One of Pittman's other big moves over the summer was bringing in transfer quarterback Taylen Green from Boise State. Although he has been strong with his arm, it has been his legs that have opened up the offense.
Green and lead running back Ja’Quinden Jackson have created among the country's best rushing attacks. Arkansas ranks 13th nationally in rushing scores with 20, and six Hogs have run for at least one touchdown this season.
However, Jackson is doubtful for this game due to an injury, which means Green could be asked to do even more for Petrino’s offense.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Tremendous Growth Under Lebby
With a total roster turnover and a new coaching staff, coach Jeff Lebby's first season was always going to be challenging.
The schedule makers also did him no favors with who the Bulldogs have had to play.
This is the first team Mississippi State will play in over a month that is not ranked inside the AP Top 25. This stretch included Texas and Georgia on the road in back-to-back weeks.
Even with the formidable opposition, we have seen tremendous growth under Lebby. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in the last three games by an average of 13.3 points per contest.
The resurgence has been led by true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. He leads all SEC quarterbacks in touchdown passes over the past month, and he’ll need another big showing here.
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 133 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 125 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 128 | |
Mississippi State Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 30 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 43 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 129 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 55 | 29 |
| Middle 8 | 83 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (46) | 23.4 (9) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (76) | 53% (71) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction
In this SEC matchup, I think there is a massive advantage on one side of the ball that I can’t ignore. This includes the talent on the field and a mismatch of coaches.
My best bet is to take Arkansas on the spread at -7 or better. I also don’t hate a look at prop bets on Taylen Green that are not out at the time of writing.
The major advantage the Razorbacks have on the sidelines is Petrino against Mississippi State's first-year defensive coordinator, Coleman Hutzler. The defense has been an issue for the Bulldogs, and I don’t expect Hutzler to have the answers against Petrino.
If we’re being honest, Mississippi State’s defensive struggles can’t all be put on Hutzler. He isn’t working with much talent, and it shows weekly upfront.
The Bulldogs can't get any pressure against the passer, ranking 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in Havoc. Meanwhile, they also can’t stop the run, coming into this one ranking outside the top 100 in both Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
This is also the same unit that ranks bottom 20 nationally in Pro Football Focus's Coverage and Tackling grades. All of this is very concerning against Arkansas’ running attack.
Yes, Jackson is a big loss, but I expect the Hogs to dominate up front. The offensive line will open up plenty of holes to allow the Razorbacks to control the ball and consistently be in great spots to gain short yards on third downs.
Give me Arkansas to move to within one win of bowl eligibility with a victory and cover.
Pick: Arkansas -7 (-110, bet365) | Play to -7 (-110)
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Arkansas vs Mississippi State will be played at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 12:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.
