Here's my Arkansas vs. Texas A&M predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
The Southwest Classic is the rivalry between the Texas A&M Aggies (3-1, 1-0 SEC) and Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1, 1-0), which dates back to Halloween 1903. This game will kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Razorbacks lead the series, 42-35-3, with the bulk of the games coming from decades of conference games in the Southwest Conference. Each program has a nine-game win streak in the series, the latest coming from the Aggies from 2012-20.
This will be the last time the teams meet at the neutral site of AT&T Stadium in Arlington as this rivalry is set to return to home stadiums, starting in Fayetteville, in 2025.
Arkansas is on the fast track to eclipse its season win total of 4.5, as it's already 3-1 under head coach Sam Pittman. Changes at offensive coordinator and quarterback have had positive results through the first trimester of the season.
However, this is one of the most volatile teams in the nation. The Hogs own a victory over Auburn but had a postgame win expectancy of just 6% in that game. They also lost to Oklahoma State despite an 86% postgame win expectancy.
Texas A&M has already had enough story lines to encompass an entire season, as the new coaching staff suffered defeat in the season opener against Notre Dame. After a victory over McNeese State, the Aggies went into The Swamp and manhandled the Florida with a first-time starter at quarterback.
With two healthy quarterbacks for head coach Mike Elko, Texas A&M will have enough versatility to throw at the Razorbacks defense.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds, Spread
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -218 |
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -6 · Arkansas +6
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M over/under: 50.5
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M moneyline: Texas A&M ML -218 · Arkansas ML +180
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M pick: Over 50.5
My Texas A&M vs. Arkansas best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas Football vs. Texas A&M Football Preview
Arkansas has plenty of indigestion about traveling down to the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as the Razorbacks have lost 11-of-12 games against the Aggies on the home field of the Dallas Cowboys.
Although the result at Auburn was a victory, the box score painted a completely different picture. The Tigers averaged more than 7.1 yards per play, well ahead of the Razorbacks four yards per play.
The passing attack was pitiful, falling below half of the national average Success Rate at 47%.
The saving grace in the road victory at Auburn was the wheels of quarterback Taylen Green.
WHAT A BEAUTY pic.twitter.com/rQPht6GcUa
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 21, 2024
The junior transfer has increased his rushing output game over game, logging a season-high 17 rushing attempts against Auburn. Green has at least 15 rushing attempts in the box score over the past three games, more than any other game in two years as a starter at Boise State.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has the proper quarterback to run his system, as moving pockets and bootleg attempts have helped create 30 play-action dropbacks.
Green has completed nearly twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays, a great complement to one of the best running backs in the nation in Ja'Quinden Jackson.
The Utah transfer has been a workhorse for the Hogs, generating eight touchdowns and an elusive 4.3 yards after first contact. Jackson has earned those yards and propelled the Hogs to a rank of 10th in Rushing Success Rate, as the offensive line is purely responsible for sagging numbers in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Another issue persisting in Petrino's offense is the ability to score touchdowns in scoring opportunities. The Razorbacks opened the season with 10 touchdowns in 10 offensive possessions, but in three subsequent games, the offense has averaged just 2.9 points on possessions crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
The defense continues to deal with ineffectiveness and injury. Cornerback Jaylon Braxton and safety Hudson Clark missed the Auburn game, but both are listed on the depth chart for Texas A&M. The Razorbacks have produced pass rush, coverage and tackling grades all outside the top 100.
The secondary has been the Havoc lifeblood for defensive coordinator Travis Williams' aggressive 4-2-5 defense. Nickel Doneiko Slaughter and safeties TJ Metcalf and Jayden Johnson have supplied 10 passes defensed so far this season.
That’s a pick nine times out of nine for @jj4x_ 🤫 pic.twitter.com/mcpmapsmfw
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 24, 2024
Offensive coordinator Collin Klein may have two different game plans for Texas A&M leading up to kickoff.
Elko announced original starting quarterback Conner Weigman will be a game-time decision based on health. The sophomore is dealing with an AC joint sprain suffered against Notre Dame. He left the McNeese game early and didn't dress in Week 4 against Bowling Green.
Weigman provides Texas A&M with a pro-style quarterback who can execute from the pocket. Without Weigman, the Aggies are expected to continue a dependency on freshman Marcel Reed.
Still thinking about this Marcel Reed juke 😳 @AggieFootballpic.twitter.com/zu6p9lS1Zp
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 16, 2024
Reed has produced 118 yards on designed runs and another 100 yards from scrambles. While the numbers are rising offensively for the Aggies, the most important statistic may come in Havoc Allowed. Texas A&M ranks as the most disciplined offense in the nation, as Reed has yet to throw an interception or fumble the ball.
The Aggies' offensive line has allowed just eight tackles for loss through four games.
Like the Razorbacks, Texas A&M has also struggled in scoring position with a rank of 88th in offensive finishing drives.
Another similarity to the Hogs comes in the struggle to generate a pass rush and coverage grading, both of which are outside the top 100, per PFF.
Elko's nickel defense pivots between Cover 1 and Cover 3 but has allowed one of the highest amounts of explosives in standard downs to teams that pass the ball.
The Aggies should provide a stiff test against the Razorbacks' rushing attack thanks to a top-20 rank in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Arkansas match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 74 | |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 19 |  |
| Line Yards | 8 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 45 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 45 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 123 | 35 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 116 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 57 | 37 |
| Middle 8 | 53 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (35) | 28.2 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (52) | 63% (13) |
How to Bet My Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction
The similarities between the two teams are striking from an analytics standpoint.
Both Texas A&M and Arkansas have similar strength of schedules and strength of records. Neither defense has produced a pass rush or graded highly in coverage. Each offense has had success running the ball, and if Reed starts for Texas A&M, there will be two mobile quarterbacks capable of creating missed tackles.
Both defenses also rank among the top 30 in opponent third-down conversions, while each offense has struggled to come through with touchdowns in scoring position.
If there's an avenue for points, the recent play of the defenses could lead to easy scores. After a sloppy defensive performance against UAB with 11 missed tackles, Arkansas missed 14 tackles and was dominated by the Auburn offense.
The Tigers generated four explosive drives, defined as a possession that averaged at least 10 yards per play. While the Hogs have a Havoc-minded defense, the secondary ranks 128th in creating contested catches.
Texas A&M has a different set of struggles on defense, ranking 74th in Opponent Pass EPA. Explosive plays in early downs have been an issue, as Arkansas ranks ninth in passing attempts on first down with 68 through four games.
A 61% conversion rate on third downs has Petrino's offense ranked second in FBS, behind only Miami.
With both offenses in the top 40 in Quality Drives and featuring mobile quarterbacks against lackluster pass rushes, scoring opportunities should be abundant.
Pick: Over 52.5 or Better
How to Watch Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Texas A&M-Arkansas Betting Trends
- Arkansas is 2-1 straight up and against the spread.
- The total have gone over in two of Arkansas' last three games.
- Texas A&M is 3-1 straight up but only 1-3 against the spread.
- The total has gone over twice and under twice in A&M games.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Weather
