The Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt) take on the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5, 6-2 MAC) in the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In an era of increasingly obscure sponsors slapping their names on bowl games, the 68 Ventures Bowl certainly ranks up there.
While this game lacks a trophy as exciting as a bespoke Pop-Tart toaster, it brings one of college football’s most electric offensive players in Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. The tight end could break two all-time NCAA records if things shake his way.
Fannin’s Falcons are searching for their first bowl win in a decade when Dino Babers led the program to a victory in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Scot Loeffler has turned the program around during his six-year tenure to get the Falcons back to their third straight bowl appearance.
Arkansas State hasn’t won a bowl game since 2019, but head coach Butch Jones has similarly turned the RedHawks program around during his four-year stint, increasing his team’s win total each season.
The Bowling Green offense is essentially fully loaded for this bowl matchup. Will that be enough to propel the Falcons to a touchdown-plus victory?
Bowling Green enters as a -8.5 favorite with an over/under of 53.5.
Let's dive into my Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Bowling Green Falcons Prediction, Best Bets
- Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green -7.5
My Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
- Spread: Bowling Green -10.5, Arkansas State +10.5
- Over/Under: 53.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Bowling Green ML -385, Arkansas State ML +300
Arkansas State Football vs. Bowling Green Football Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
It took four years, but Butch Jones finally managed a winning season at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves won four of their final six games to secure an above-.500 season and can now give the former Tennessee coach his first bowl victory since those Volunteers won the Music City Bowl in 2016.
Arkansas State’s seven-win season is all the more impressive considering how poorly its defense has played. The Red Wolves rank 129th in total defense, allowing 460.3 yards per game and finished 11th in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (32.3 points allowed per game).
The Red Wolves defense will be without corner Dontay Joyner, who entered the transfer portal after finishing fifth on the team in tackles and led the defense in passes defended.
To overcome the defensive flaws, Arkansas State must rely upon its multi-headed rushing attack led by running backs Zak Wallace and Ja’Quez Cross. Both backs have over 600 yards rushing, with Wallace being the more dangerous scoring option with his 10 rushing touchdowns, compared to Cross’ two.
Arkansas State also has one of the Sun Belt’s most dangerous receiving options in Corey Rucker who is fourth in the conference with 946 receiving yards. Quarterback Jaylen Rayner has connected with Rucker for five of his 14 passing touchdowns.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview
There were some dark years, but Scot Loeffler has finally rebuilt the Bowling Green football program. A win over Arkansas State would give the Falcons eight wins, something they haven’t reached since 2015.
Since that year, Bowling Green has had a winless season and three more with three or fewer wins.
The Falcons came painstakingly close to reaching the MAC Championship this year before a season-finale to Miami (OH) dashed those plans. That loss ended a five-game winning streak for Bowling Green, who uses a balanced offense and has one of the conference’s better defenses.
Leading rusher Terion Stewart has already entered the transfer portal and committed to Virginia Tech, but he will be suiting up one more time for the Falcons after an 890-yard, six-touchdown season.
Bowling Green also has tight end Fannin available. Entering the bowl game with 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and nine touchdowns, Fannin needs just 11 yards against Arkansas State to break Jace Amaro's single-season receiving yardage record for tight ends set in 2013.
The stud pass-catcher is also 12 catches from setting the single-season receptions mark for the position.
Defensively, Bowling Green has consistently shut down opposing passing offenses.
The Falcons finished second in the MAC in pass defense and had the conference’s second-most interceptions (11). Bowling Green also only allowed 16 touchdowns to conference foes, the second-fewest in the MAC.
Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Arkansas State match up statistically:
Arkansas State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 31 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 41 | |
Bowling Green Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 132 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 113 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 122 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 117 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 39 | 49 |
| Middle 8 | 117 | 57 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (21) | 29.7 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (82) | 52% (87) |
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Picks, Best Bets
In a vacuum, Arkansas State’s defense is already concerning. The RedHawks have one of the worst all-around defenses in the Sun Belt and are near the bottom nationally in a handful of defensive metrics.
Usually, some of these holes are minimized in bowl season because the best skill-position players have been increasingly likely to opt out. But that’s not the case for Bowling Green.
The Falcons' offense is expected to be as close to status quo as possible, and whether it's through the air or on the ground, the Bowling Green offense is going to have a huge leg up.
Bowling Green has, at times, been bullied at the line of scrimmage, so I expect Arkansas State to hit one or two home runs rushing the ball, but it won’t be enough to keep pace.
The Falcons shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball and will win this by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Bowling Green -7.5 (Play to -8)
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Start Time, Location
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, Dec. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Arkansas State is set to take on Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday Dec. 26 in Mobile, Alabama, at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Betting Trends to Know
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Weather Forecast
